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2016 National Football League (NFL) Regular Season


Ace Nova

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With Nelson getting older and coming back from a major knee injury the Pack needs to develop a #1 stud receiver with some speed to stretch the field maybe Trevor Davis can develop into that guy as I don't think Janis will ever develop into a #1. Considering it usually takes 3 years for receivers to reach their potential I think Ted may need to bite the bullet next draft and grab one 1 or 2nd round............

Also think he needs to grab a talented OLB as Matthews will be on the wrong side of 30 and Peppers could hit the wall or retire any year now.........

Depending on how Cook works out and Lacy can return to form we may need to draft or sign players for those positions as well

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I'd be very surprised if Peppers came back for another year. This is the last year on his contract and I doubt TT is gonna sign him to another one after this, particularly when we have both Perry and Datone Jones (plus Fackrell).

I'd also be very surprised if Trevor Davis ever becomes anything more than just a change of pace guy, though obviously I hope I'm wrong.

I would bet TT takes a WR in the 2nd if none of the younger players develop this season. I just don't see him taking a WR in the first unless a super elite prospect fall that far and he can claim "BPA"

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7 hours ago, Wagszilla said:

I just watched coaches film of the Jags game. Aaron is on notice. He had guys open, dude is just not pulling the trigger.

This downfield offense has been coddling him. 

Interesting.........I questioned this last year here as I found it hard to beleive his receivers could not get seperation every game as I was reading in the papers as they still had some talent at that positioon even with Jordy out.........at the time I wondered if his aversion to INT's was making him gun shy.......I found it odd he held the ball so long seemingly on every pass play and was forced to scramble around to make things happen...............if what you say is true he will be putting major pressure on his OL again and that offense could struggle again this year...........

Edited by classicrawker
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3 hours ago, Wagszilla said:

Cook was open but more so Adams was open. 

It comes down to Rodgers being precious, looking downfield too much, and not trusting his receivers.

It's Week 1 so I'm like to give everything more time before jumping to conclusions. 

Lacy also looked like garbage. I appreciate the media's spin on things but he missed reads and lost yards on plays that should've been big gainers. 

Yeah I found it odd when watching other teams that the QB's got the ball out fairly fast while Rodgers never seemed to pull the trigger while in the pocket and always seemed to have to extend the play to find an open receiver. I mean the Pats never seem to have the most talented receivers yet Brady is one of the quickest at getting the ball downfield after the snap. His slot receivers always seem to have 100 catches a year so hard to believe our receivers could not give as much production even without Jordy........

I am sure some of it can be blamed on the receivers not getting off the line possibly but this seemed to happen every game...........if this really is the case maybe our receivers are not as talented as we all think and Ted needs to get some bigger and stronger targets who can beat the press?

I agree it is only the first game and hopefully having Jordy back and once Cook gets settled that will stretch the defense for Arod...........Also agree about Lacy as even on the long run he had he was lumbering with no breakaway speed  and he is basically useless as a receiver

With all the priority FA's we have to resign it would not surprise me if Ted lets him walk and drafts a RB later in the Draft..........

 

It is cool you got to watch the coaches  film.... do you have a contact with the team or can anyone see this somewhere?

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8 minutes ago, Wagszilla said:

If Aaron committed to getting the ball out more quickly, they'd have big gainers.

He's making his progressions, seeing them break open, but just not pulling the trigger. It's a lack of patience.  He has the time in the pocket.

I don't get it. 

I'm not gonna lie, I'm a bit concerned by Aaron since 2014, and it's not just because of Jordy. His decision making on run/pass reads was about as awful as I've ever seen it. He had receivers wide open on a few (Jordy, Cook) and decided to hand the ball off.

Then his reads on others plays are downright odd. Plus he's trying to make an easy single into a homerun on almost every play. He used to do that but to a much lesser extent than he is now.

Finally, his mechanics on a few throws are awful, which is screwing up his ball placement. He was better last week than he was after the bye week last year (that Lions game...ugh), but if he puts better passes to Adams and Cobb on the drop and juggle, respectively, he'd be way over 200 yards and 2 TD's. Both players were open for TD's if he put good balls on them. #phrasing

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1 hour ago, Wagszilla said:

Great observation, you're 100% right. 

It's funny too because it's something he's developed more and more recently and originally I thought it might've been his reluctance to listen to the coaches (who have obviously noticed it), but then I read a quote in which he said he wanted to be coached more actively. So I have no idea why that hasn't been addressed :lol:

Most fans don't really notice it because he makes some incredible throws, but his mechanics are legit concerning to me.

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Double post, don't care.

Hate to be that guy but there's something seriously wrong with Aaron. He's not making accurate passes (mechanics are off), his timing is off and he's still going for the home run play on every single play. Nobody else to blame for this loss than him.

McCarthy gets some blame for running the fucking shotgun toss play on 4 STRAIGHT SERIES. And it didn't work once. Not to mention that stupid decision to throw a fade to Jordy on 3rd, then go for it on 4th instead of kicking a field goal...and then we lose by 3.

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6 minutes ago, Wagszilla said:

Frustrating game.

Rodgers looked like complete garbage. You're right @Crazyman, I don't know what the issue is.

Lacy also looks poor. Slow, bad reads. Lacy of 2014 he is not and even he was the beneficiary of a much more high powered pass attack.

Too many long developing routes, as well. 

All around bad. 

I made this to vent:

 

Aaron literally just said "I don't think this is anything to get too tough about, too crazy about." Dude, have you not noticed how bad you've played compared to the past few years?

He had a few wide open 5 yard routes that I saw - Davis on a drag, Monty (or Cobb, I couldn't see) on a quick out, etc. Yet he refused to throw them for some reason. The Jordy injury just covered an off-Rodgers and a poor offensive attack, including the run game.

Definitely an overreaction, but I think we need to clean house on the offensive side of the ball. Lacy goes, running different routes, using different formations, etc. Clearly the league has caught on and Rodgers can't bail us out anymore because something is wrong with him too.

Also you get a follow for that :lol:

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33 minutes ago, Wagszilla said:

One would hope so.

Here's my take... Rodger has historically had 2 WRs who are deep outside threats. Posts, fades, back shoulders, occasional quick slants.

Jennings and Driver in 2009, Jennings and Nelson in 2010, everyone and their brother in 2011, Jennings / Nelson / Finley in 2012, and so forth.

Now he only has an aging Nelson, a reliable but undersized Cobb, and a bunch of guys. 

Defenses can play 1 high and bring more into the box. More pressure. Rodgers has to bring it down and scramble. 

Yay new friends! :D

I think it's a plethora of problems, which is why we need to clean house on offense next year.

Playing against a stacked box means that we should have 1 on 1 matchups on the outside, yet somehow either they can't get open or Aaron doesn't trust them enough to throw the ball. Or both. I have a bunch of 2011 games on a harddrive that I've been watching lately (for obvious reasons), and while he had a ton of options back then he was also more confident, had better mechanics and timing and actually trusted his receivers (particularly Finley) in 1 on 1 matchups.

Edit: I should mention here that he also refused to throw the ball to some underneath players when there was pressure in his face for some reason. And when he did try to go deep he was off all game, minus the great throws to Adams (who dropped it even though it hit his hands on the PI and Jordy). That concerns me quite a bit.

But Adams has to go. He's yet to improve (in fact he's probably gotten worse), he runs way too inconsistent routes, has awful hands, etc. Why we keep trying to feed him the ball doesn't make sense to me, particularly because we've kept Monty, Abby and Trevor Davis off the field to have him stink it up. Lacy has to go too, unfortunately. He's also in decline and is probably gonna want some $ this offseason.

Then we need to do some other things to switch it up. I still have no idea why we don't try different formations instead of running vanilla 3 wide plays all game. If the receivers not getting open is a legit problem, run some bunch formations or something. I honestly don't get why Mac is so stubborn too.

Edited by Crazyman
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Just now, Wagszilla said:

Yep.

Lesser WR talent than in yesteryear. No Philbin tier game-planning (been an issue for years). No middle of the field threat (Finley, Jennings both did). RB an afterthought. 

I think they've been trying to force Adams down our throats because he has the best chance of being an outside threat. I'd argue Montgomery could fill that role better but perhaps he doesn't know the offense well enough yet. Cobb and Abby are too small. 

The general plan seems to be do enough to win 10 games / get into the playoffs, then figure things out from there. I just don't get why the offense is such a cluster after a full off-season of "self scouting". Whatever fuck it. I have my own issues to worry about. 

I was editing my post again when you responded, but the other thing I was gonna bring up is our over-reliance on defense the past few drafts. The only offensive players we've taken in the first round since Rodgers became QB were Bulaga and Sherrod.

Here's the amount of defensive players per draft, plus the offensive skill position players we've taken in each draft

2012: 6 of 8, only 2 offensive players, both in 7th round

2013: 5 of 11, Lacy and Franklin between 2nd and 4th, Charles Johnson in 7th (ugh), Ken Dorsey in 7th

2014: 4 of 9, Adams in 2nd, DickRod in 3rd, Abby in 5th, Janis in 7th

2015: 4 of 8, Monty in 3rd, Kennard Backman in 6th

2016: 4 of 7, Trevor Davis in 6th

So as you can see TT seems to think we can get by without drafting skill players on offense. Unfortunately Lacy has become a bust as his bust has expanded, and Adams has been terribad since the end of 2014.

But the problem also lies on MM for not recognizing the problems and adjusting and on Aaron for his general decline in play since 2014 too.

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Dak Prescott is the future in Dallas. The dude is an absolute stud. That said, their defense is still an absolute dumpster fire. I have a feeling that they're going to be involved in shootouts every week until the suspensions are over and done with.

Edited by The Real McCoy
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I hate to say I told you so but  I told you so last season about Rodgers being unwilling to pull the trigger........I am willing to put part of the blame on the receivers, and possibly McCarthy's play calling, but in the end it all goes back to Rodgers seeming reluctance throw the ball.

JMO but I find it hard to believe we don't have enough talent at WR when you look around the league at what other QB's have to work with..........The Patriots are the perfect example as they get by with less WR talent and make it work

The last pass play where Arod was intercepted would never happened to the old Arod..........

I am not sure if he has lost confidence or is just afraid of interceptions but the man just can't seem to settle in and get the ball out in a reasonable time. The Oline played well last night but it is unreasonable to expect them to hold up against the rush for 5+ seconds every passing play.

Bradford was just the opposite in that he got the ball out quick and stayed in the pocket despite good pressure all night long

The middle of the D played well again last night holding the Vikes to less than 50 yards rushing....I would say this might be a strength this year as opposed to a weakness if we can stay healthy and should only get better once Pennel comes back.........I really like our young MLB's this year as they always seem to be around the ball..........

regarding Lacy I think he is a goner next year unless he is willing to take an undervalued contract..with all the other players we have to pay I don't think Ted gives him big money...........

Next week will be a good test to see if Rodgers is the problem against a mediocre Detroit team at home.............

Edited by classicrawker
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I agree with the you on NE always having talented TE's but as far as speedy slot receivers I would say Cobb is as or more talented then any of NE's slot receivers so I am not buying that as an issue. Cobb would be a top 10 WR if he played slot for the Pats with Brady throwing to him IMHO.

Same with the RB's it is not like the Pats  ever have a real bellcow running back as they grab journeyman RB's and work them into their Offensive scheme. Bill does not expend high Draft choices on RB's so IMHO it comes down to either their offensive scheme or the play of the QB.

It is not like Ted has not drafted quality offensive players in the draft as all three WR's and Lacy were 2nd round picks so I am not buying the claim he does not spend draft picks on offfensive weapons for Arod.

No, IMHO we have plenty of Offensive talent when you add in a healty Nelson and a speedy TE in Cook so it must come down to the offensive play calling or ARod's play............If you ask me I think it is more of the latter............

It is too early to panic as the Vikes are a playoff quality team and they always play us tough at home but if we see more of the same from Arod next week against a mediocre Lions team I would say it is time to worry,,,,,,,,,,,,,

 

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I think maybe it is the way Belichick and Brady use what he have as opposed to them having more talented offensive players IMHO. Other than Gronk do the Pat really have more talented WR's or RB's than us? I think Brady would love to have the GB WR trio of Nelson, Cobb and Adams......

Brady has one of the quickest releases in Football  and rarely holds the ball very long. So how do his receivers get open?

I agree about the RB situation as our RB's are useless in the passing game. Is it because they can't catch or is it McCarthy's scheme? He seems to love WR bubble screens but did he even call any RB screen passes last night? And where has Montgomery been in the offense?

As far as the vertical passing game goes I think you need to set that up with the horizontal passes, screens etc. to get more D players in the box...........Our offense has become too one dimensional and Defenses seem to be scheming to stop what Mike throws at them.........

Like you said I am not an expert either and unless it is the Pack playing on regular cable I don't watch much FB so I guess I am missing the big picture somehow................:shrugs:

 

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8 hours ago, Wagszilla said:

They've certainly whiffed on most of their 1st round picks. 

I mean, I see your point, but I'm not sure I agree. Both S and DL have been huge needs for years now and CB throughout the years with expiring contracts.

Off the cuff, I would say their success rate is much higher than other NFL teams. Yes we missed on Sherrod and Worthy and others but we also hit home runs on Bahktiari, Hyde, and probably more UFDAs than any other team. Also it's not Ted's fault future HOFer Nick Collins' career ended on a freak play. 

At some point Ted needs to pull the trigger on a huge free agent. I'd say on the whole, those impact players haven't been out there (i.e.: at WR or DL) but there have been some dynamic players: Sproles comes to mind (I'm biased as fuck!) but he's passed for whatever reason. He did get Peppers and he has been a huge boon. 

  Reveal hidden contents

I'd trade Matthews

 

I think the problem is that he's waited until late in drafts to draft any type of skill position player. Agreed we needed defense at the time during those drafts, but now defense is the better portion of the team and somehow offense has become the lesser half.

Watched a bit of the '11 game against Denver last night. I forgot how often Jennings lined up in the slot during that time. Aaron trusted him so much that he would pull the trigger before Greg was even open - it seems as though he doesn't have the same type of trust with the receivers today.

It's partly mental on Rodgers behalf, part playcalling, part personnel. It's a three-pronged problem, imo, and that's why I still endorse the clean house.

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6 hours ago, Wagszilla said:

I don't understand how a professional football team can completely fail to learn any lessons after last season.

This Packers team is at the "Sign Randy Moss" point of it's shelf life. Draft and develop is not working with the WRs.

Because Mac is too stubborn.

Disagree on draft and developing WR's doesn't work, it's just that we've basically invested 0 into them in regards to the draft part. When we have, either they've busted (Adams), don't get used at all (Monty), or are late picks who either can't get onto the field (Abby) or are injured/can't pick up the offense (Janis).

I haven't paid much attention to 2017 prospects so far but we almost certainly need to go WR/HB/CB in any order in the first 3 rounds. We can't keep skipping out on skill position players, particularly since TT is just as stubborn as MM is and will still refuse to embrace free agency.

Edit: Also this is part of the problem. 3 WR's being covered by 2 DB's and we ran it. WTF?!

whynotthrowithere.jpg

He misses on Cobb here despite him being wide open...and doesn't even see Jordy who would've had an easy TD. All on Rodgers right now.

Edited by Crazyman
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I think Ted has invested in skill offensive players early in the draft as Lacy, Nelson, Cobb, and Adams were 2nd round picks and Monty was a 3rd rounder. Players drafted that high are expected to be strong contributors to their team so I am not seeing where Ted has not invested at these positoins in the draft.

Lacy, Nelson and Cobb  have had AllPro type seasons in the past and Adams had a very good first year before struggling last year...........Monty was on track to have an excellent first year before he got hurt and for whatever reason mcCarthy did not give him any snaps in the offense last night. Add to that we signed Cook who I think will be strong contributer as the season goes on if Arod gets his shit together.........

So I have to disagree with the notion that the skill positions have been ignored......Again JMO but I think their issues start with Arod regressing and possibly McCarthy's play calling but I don't think it is a lack of talent.................there are plenty of weapons on offense they just are not be utilized properly.......

And Wags maybe they should consider trading Arod instead of Matthews and give Hundley a shot as he seems to have all the tools and Arod would bring back a kings ransom of picks....................

 

Edited by classicrawker
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2 hours ago, Crazyman said:

Because Mac is too stubborn.

Disagree on draft and developing WR's doesn't work, it's just that we've basically invested 0 into them in regards to the draft part. When we have, either they've busted (Adams), don't get used at all (Monty), or are late picks who either can't get onto the field (Abby) or are injured/can't pick up the offense (Janis).

I haven't paid much attention to 2017 prospects so far but we almost certainly need to go WR/HB/CB in any order in the first 3 rounds. We can't keep skipping out on skill position players, particularly since TT is just as stubborn as MM is and will still refuse to embrace free agency.

Edit: Also this is part of the problem. 3 WR's being covered by 2 DB's and we ran it. WTF?!

whynotthrowithere.jpg

So why didn't Arod audible out of the play? Can't blame McCarthy for that one as he only radios in the play before the Dfense is set. It is then up to Arod to recognize and audible out of it.............Also it looks like #34 safety  Sendejo jumped into the box to defend the run it is possible the Dfense changed right before the snap. We would have to see the play develop to see if it was truly 3 on 2 before the snap.

The Pack spread the field so I am not surprised they ran the ball.....in hindsight maybe a play action or bubble screen to the 3 receiver side would have been warranted but I would love to see the coaches video of this play to see what Arod saw before the snap...

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56 minutes ago, classicrawker said:

So why didn't Arod audible out of the play? Can't blame McCarthy for that one as he only radios in the play before the Dfense is set. It is then up to Arod to recognize and audible out of it.............Also it looks like #34 safety  Sendejo jumped into the box to defend the run it is possible the Dfense changed right before the snap. We would have to see the play develop to see if it was truly 3 on 2 before the snap.

The Pack spread the field so I am not surprised they ran the ball.....in hindsight maybe a play action or bubble screen to the 3 receiver side would have been warranted but I would love to see the coaches video of this play to see what Arod saw before the snap...

I believe the screenshot is an example of a Run/Pass option and he chose wrong again for some reason. He screwed up a few of those last week against Jacksonville too. Another thing I noticed is that whenever we start to get Lacy going a bit we stop feeding him the ball in the 2nd half, even with Aaron struggling. I really don't get that at all...

Edit: it also irks me that they ran a fade to Jordy on 3rd and 1 (which Aaron completely missed). If they knew they were gonna go for it on 4th, why not try the run on 3rd and then catch them sleeping on 4th? Also why not put Lacy in for the 4th down run?

And about drafting skill players - you listed all the current contributors we've drafted since Jordy...which means that's almost over an entire decade at this point. That's fine if we hit on a high rate (which we do), but with Lacy regressing/not being involved, Adams being a bust (I'm declaring it at this point), Monty not being used at all, etc. it becomes a lot more difficult. It becomes much worse when Jared Cook is the only skill player they've signed in the past decade too.

That being said the biggest problem right now is still Aaron, with MM right behind him.

Edit 2: ready for some depressing stats? I know I am!

Aaron in the past 15 regular season games (week 4 from last year to last night):

24 TD/9 INT, 58.1%, 6.3 YPA, 84.4 Passer rating (1 game over 100), Packers are 8-7 in these games

Aaron in the 16 games before that (week 4 2014 to week 3 last year):

43 TD/4 INT, 67.6%, 8.8 YPA, 119.8 Passer rating (13 games over 100), Packers went 14-2 in these games

Edited by Crazyman
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10 minutes ago, Crazyman said:

I believe the screenshot is an example of a Run/Pass option and he chose wrong again for some reason. He screwed up a few of those last week against Jacksonville too. Another thing I noticed is that whenever we start to get Lacy going a bit we stop feeding him the ball in the 2nd half, even with Aaron struggling. I really don't get that at all...

Edit: it also irks me that they ran a fade to Jordy on 3rd and 1 (which Aaron completely missed). If they knew they were gonna go for it on 4th, why not try the run on 3rd and then catch them sleeping on 4th? Also why not put Lacy in for the 4th down run?

And about drafting skill players - you listed all the current contributors we've drafted since Jordy...which means that's almost over an entire decade at this point. That's fine if we hit on a high rate (which we do), but with Lacy regressing/not being involved, Adams being a bust (I'm declaring it at this point), Monty not being used at all, etc. it becomes a lot more difficult. It becomes much worse when Jared Cook is the only skill player they've signed in the past decade too.

That being said the biggest problem right now is still Aaron, with MM right behind him.

Edit 2: ready for some depressing stats? I know I am!

Aaron in the past 15 regular season games (week 4 from last year to last night):

24 TD/9 INT, 58.1%, 6.3 YPA, 84.4 Passer rating (1 game over 100), Packers are 8-7 in these games

Aaron in the 16 games before that (week 4 2014 to week 3 last year):

43 TD/4 INT, 67.6%, 8.8 YPA, 119.8 Passer rating (lots of games over 100), Packers went 14-2 in these games

If the Vikes were showing that D before the snap then Arod definitely missed the read which is odd as he used to be the master at changing the plays at the line to exploit the Dfense setup.

As far as the skill players are concerned Jordy was on top of his game when he got hurt, Cobb was coming off an ALLPro type season and Adams off of a very good rookie year........ with all that talent they still drafted Monty in the 3rd round and Ted took a rash of shit for drafting a WR from critics who felt it was not a smart pick so high in the draft considering all the talent they had at the position so it is not like Ted was not keeping the position stocked with talent..........Why draft more WR's when you have such talent in house? I can see him being criticized for the type of receivers he drafts as more possession then field stretchers but he has been drafting talent. I also tend to agree with Wags in that the Pack has never really had a solid RB in recent memories who can run and catch out of the backfield. That really limits the offense IMHO not to have that weapon coming out of the backfield. Maybe Monty can be that change of pace hybrid WR/ Back but McCarthy needs to play him in the back field and call some screens and wheel routes  to see how it works..........he certainly is big enough to get some touches as a RB.

I think your Arod stats are more telling than lack of skill position talent.........Look at Adams stats his first year then compare them to what he had last year when Arod started getting tentative and scramble happy in the pocket.........I think it is too early to give up on Adams as he has shown he has the talent but I think his success depends on Arod reverting back to Arod..............Even with Nelson and Cook added this year that offense is going nowhere if Arod continues to play the way he has the past year..............

 

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As I said, problem A is Aaron. Problem B is MM. Then I'd argue that problem C is the lack of skill position players.

Aaron is the main reason why the offense is struggling. He clearly needs to get his shit together, and those stats were posted to prove that it's him and nothing else. Next is MM because he's made some boneheaded playcalls (shotgun toss on 4 straight possessions...it didn't work on any of them...and it hasn't worked ever being my person vendetta) and lack of desire to run Lacy in the 2nd half when he generally picks up his game. Plus the routes he calls are all long developing for some reason - it's the reason Bill Bellicheat will always be a better coach than MM, because he makes adjustments instead of saying that his players simply need to win their 1 on 1 matchups.

Then TT for drafting the same types of skill players - we have Cobb so we draft Monty, who is essentially a slightly bigger version of Cobb that we don't even use for some reason. Then we stubbornly stick with Adams even though he's shown nothing but regression from his rookie season. Adams is the opposite of Janis in that he does well in practice, then sucks badly in games, yet for some reason Janis is the scapegoat because he can't run routes, but at least he catches the ball when it hits his hands...

I think Aaron needs to start playing more in the preseason again. He was crisp to start last season, but otherwise has been off the past few seasons in the early part of the year. It's weird to think that our defense is gonna have to carry us this year...I never thought I'd say that with #12 as the QB

Edit (sorry for the edits): here's how bad A-A-Ron was at the Run/Pass option week 1 too -

Poor read here:

Another bad run/pass option...that cost us a TD:

 

Edited by Crazyman
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