How much has CD sold as of 2015?

[SoulMonster]

Yeah, it has been discussed to death, but since I was involved int his discussion in another thread, clogging it up with off-topic talk, I thought it was better to start a new thread. Why is this important? It isn't to me, I just got entangled. But to some it is important, maybe because they want to show that CD wasn't a commercial failure (good luck with that!) or because they want to show to what extent it was. Or maybe they just like to know.

Anyway. Here is what I know:

Universal Music claimed in February 6, 2009, that 2.6 million copies had been sold globally. That is a couple of months after the release. It may be that they aren't talking about how many copies have been sold from retail stores etc, but how many copies they have shipped to retailers. After all, UMG is interested in a return on their investment, so to them what is important is how many records they sell to retailers. But on the other hand, they represent the artist who is interested in how many actually buy their records, to gauge artistisc success. So hard to say, but I lean towards that number being the actual sales figures.

Then, in late 2009, a list of certifications was released. Exactly when the various certifications were released is not known, they could have happened at any time between release date and November 2009. What is interesting with such lists is that we can estimate the number of shipped units based on which certifications have been reached. The obvious problem is that we don't have such data for all markets and that the certifications came at various timepoints from early 2009 to late 2009, meaning that more could and would have been shipped to each market since then. Anyway, if I do this work, and only use the lowest number required for each certification, then I get that by late 2009 at least 2.4 million copies of CD had been shipped. But this number is grossly under-weighted. Many of these certifications were reached early, and the record must have continued shipping (usually you only ship some units to any market, shipping more depending upon how well the units are then sold). The number is based on a mix of sales and shipping data (under the understanding that each unit sold must have been shipped). In my opinion, we can't really use this number for anything, since what we have is a mix of shipped and sales numbers that don't cover the whole global market, and for various timepoints.

[btw, this list of certifications seems to be the same that was used by this fellow to make his estimate of 2.8 millions: http://www.gunsnfnroses.com/index.php?/topic/10153-chinese-democracy-sales-definative/Again, he is also looking at a list of combined shipped and sold. The reason why his number is higher than mine, is that he used average numbers (he assumed the records had sold more by 2011, or whenever he did the work) and because he factored in other markets for which we had no data by assuming they would account for 8-9 % of the total global sales].

So to summarize, UMG claims 2.6 millions were sold by February 2009. By looking at certifications, we know that at least 2.4 millions had been shipped by late 2009. It doesn't really help us much in estimating how many have been SOLD by 2015

An alternative approach is to take actual sales numbers that are recent, and then extrapolate this sales figures to cover other markets. The obvious weakness of this method is to be able to only include markets where we can assume the sales numbers will be similar (per capita). One way of doing this is to extrapolate to other "gold" or "platinum" markets. Let's try this for USA and UK, where we do have quite recent sales numbers (at least for the UK).

"Gold market".

Known sales of CD in USA in 2011: 614.000 (this is Gold certification).

Population: ~ 300 mill in USA which is 26 % of the total popuation in all the countries that reached Gold certification (shipping or sold) before the end of 2009.

Extrapolation for 2011: 2.36 millions.

"Platinum market".

Known sales of CD in the UK in 2014: 368.899.

Population: 64 mill in UK which is 14 % of the total population in all the countries that reached Platinum certification (shipping or sold) before the end of 2009.

Extrapolation: 2.63 millions.

So by combining these markets (the Gold and the Platinum markets) we get that for 2014, the combined sales should be in the ballpark of 4.99 millions. If we add 8 % for the rest of the global market, we get 5.38 millions. The weakness of this method is the number for the Gold market is for 2011, more records will have been sold in this region since then; and that we are extrapolating for both shipped and sold. The first weakness means the actual number should be higher, the second weakness that it should be lower. I'd give it a plus/minus of 1 million. So from about 4 to 6 millions sold by 2015.

UPDATE:

I found an article that claims the current (as of 2015) sales figures for USA is "less than 750k". I would prefer a more accurate number, but let's go with it. Less than 750k should mean anything from 700 to 750. I choose 720 to be on the safe side of not overshooting:

"Gold market".

Known sales of CD in USA in 2015: 720.000.

Population: ~ 300 mill in USA which is 26 % of the total popuation in all the countries that reached Gold certification (shipping or sold) before the end of 2009.

Extrapolation for 2015: 2.77 millions.

"Platinum market".

Known sales of CD in the UK in 2014: 368.899.

Population: 64 mill in UK which is 14 % of the total population in all the countries that reached Platinum certification (shipping or sold) before the end of 2009.

Extrapolation: 2.63 millions.

So by combining these, we get 5.4 millions. Again adding 8 % to account for the entire global market, this gives 5.8 millions. But again, this is based on data that were partially shipped and not only sold, and the sales figures in USA and UK may not be completely representative for their respective markets. I'll say the best estimation I can come up with is 5 millions plus/minus 1 million. It also means that USA accounts for more than 10 % of the market.

Some people refuse to accept anything above 3 millions. Why this particular number is chosen is beyond me, and I fear it is more based on feelings than anything else. If it is true, it would mean that one third of all CD copies sold, were sold in USA and UK! Is this really plausible when we have big markets like the rest of Europe, Canada, Brazil, Argentina, Indonesia etc, with lots of strong GN'R fans?

Edited October 10, 2015 by SoulMonster

[Apollo]

My pecker could be 7 inches long. Or it could be 9.5 inches if you extrapolate it.

[Słash]

As you are talking about the sales of CD, whatever figures you people have, from that Aprrox. how much Axl got in his pocket? How much royalties the band members got?

[SoulMonster]

As you are talking about the sales of CD, whatever figures you people have, from that Aprrox. how much Axl got in his pocket? How much royalties the band members got?

I don't know if anyone here knows those numbers, but I think Axl was mainly payed for handing over the record to the label, any commercial failure was the label's loss.

[-W.A.R-]

honestly who cares? i think selling 2m for a band that hadn't been relevant since 96, only had one original member left and had a completely different sound is good especially in a era where CDs didn't sell like they used to and the kids were more into Lil Wayne (or rap music in general)...ppl have skewed ideas of what it should have sold

the GNR name meant nothing to the new generation...the only connection they might have had was the Grand Theft Auto game lol (which is still the best game ever made i might add) and i bet many didn't even know Axl was the voice of one of the radio DJ's

Edited September 23, 2015 by -HollywoodRose-

[wasted]

I remember bands get 14% of a sold cd. They split it between band.

The record company get about $10 per cd. So I see sold 10 mil records, i translate that to record company gets 100 mil. Band get 10 mil to share or whatever.

Theres still distribution and promo.

Thats why Courtney love was trying to get out of her contract. She said bands get screwed on the first contract.

So the theory was that record companies useless other than distribution and promo. Artists are like slaves unless they fight back or are happy to just have a career.

Geffen back in day threw money at UYI vids bcos 5,7 mil a go because Guns made them 300 mil if not more.

Thats why the advance for CD was 14 mil no big deal. CD probably generated 15 mil for the record company. Seeing as no costly vids were made and no money was spent oiling the wheels for radio play. It's just okay business wise. around 2000 Zutaut was saying the label wanted to sell 20 mil but that was never going to happen as there was no perceivable hit. Atlas Shrugged was his choice of single. So maybe one day...

[Strange Broue]

Album sales matter til 2004-05 at maximum

After that, it is irrelevant

Axl was too late, even for the "album sales" era

BUT

if we ignore this fact, CD sold relatively decent

BUT

The record costs 14 million (plus don't forget the BestBuy deal, the lack of self promotion etc.)

So it IS a flop financially no matter what are the numbers for the album sales

That is why i keep my stance that people whom interested in album sales in the XXI century are morons

sorry

Edited September 23, 2015 by Strange Broue

[T-Minus]

It's reputation as an album has sadly been tarnished so much that people probably buy it primarily as a coaster to protect their table more than they would for it's musical quality.

[Mao5]

less than 3 million

[SoulMonster]

less than 3 million

That would be within the absolute lowest estimation. The current sales data for UK and USA, when extrapolated to the rest of the markets, do not support such a low sales figure.

[T-Minus]

All that we can summise is that the waiting, and the drama and Axl's negligent behaviour during and after it's release, harmed the sales massively. It should have been one of the biggest selling CD's in years just simply because of the intrigue, the anticipation.... Axl and Axl alone, despite what he may claim, totally fucked it up. It's a good album, it features some fantastic artists and playing, and that's the biggest shame.

[Mao5]

less than 3 million

That would be within the absolute lowest estimation. The current sales data for UK and USA, when extrapolated to the rest of the markets, do not support such a low sales figure.

CD has sold less than 3 million

[SoulMonster]

less than 3 million

That would be within the absolute lowest estimation. The current sales data for UK and USA, when extrapolated to the rest of the markets, do not support such a low sales figure.

CD has sold less than 3 million

I appreciate your conviction, is it fuelled by something beyond just wanting CD to be a collosal commercial failure?

[wasted]

I would say there is a new standard of success. First two weeks of sales of 1 mil. 300-400 is decent. Remember CD is no 1 or 2 most places.

The drop off is more rec companies not promoting with videos. Rock is pretty played out. When GNR turned up it was throw back the 70s. Studio heads still wanted bands to fund their coke habits. But now those guys are dying and its this new digital technology malarky and prescription pills, superhero movies and chain restaurants. Kids of the 70s come to power and Star Wars everything. I just want a light saber and a 3 litre bottle of pepsi. Axl is really the antithesis of that. But everyones got a fruit phone and download rock history in a couple of hours. Why buy another rock cd ever?

[wkuk04]

I agree SoulMonster with the numbers. People who say it was a financial failure can't see the 14,000,000 Best Buy deal & what it has sold up to present. Which is possibly 20 Million. If that's a failure then I don't know what success to measure it too.

[wasted]

The weird thing is up to 2004 basic rock records sold 4 mil. So if they had done a trilogy (and not necessarily even a good one) they could generated interest and sales up to 15 mil between them. Just would need a little more conviction from all sides. Maybe a different band name. But success and fame isnt what Axl wanted it seems.

It does feel like only half the story. Like there 5-7 CD era songs left and 5-7 more modern songs like Shacklers or Scraped.

But it's more a artistic thing than a money spinner.

[Strange Broue]

Here's some real numbers with sources

Best Buy purchased 1.3 million copies of the album from UMG upfront before release, with a pledge not to return any excess copies.^[138] The album was initially released November 22, 2008, in Germany,^[139]Switzerland,^[140] and Austria.^[141] It was released on November 23, 2008, worldwide, except in the United Kingdom, where it was released on November 24, 2008.^[142]Chinese Democracy debuted at number three on the US Billboard 200 chart, selling 261,000 copies in its first week, well below expectations.^{[143][144][145][146]} The album also debuted at #2 on the UK Albums Chart.^[147] Second Week sales dropped significantly in the United States, dropping from no. 3 to no. 18 on the Billboard chart, a 78 percent drop.^[148] After selling 21,000 copies it's sixth week charting at no. 30, the album was certified Gold by the RIAA, passing the 500,000 shipped mark on January 7, 2009.^[149]Chinese Democracy was certified Platinum by the RIAA on February 3, 2009, having shipped one million copies in the United States.^[150][151] The album placed 55th on the 2009 Billboard 200 Year End charts.^[152]

The album secured an IFPI European Platinum Award, having sold more than one million copies in Europe,^[153][154] and had sold 2.6 million units worldwide as of February 2009, according to Universal Music.^[151]The album also reached triple platinum certification in Canada, as well as platinum certifications in many other countries, including Finland, the Czech Republic, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Norway, Poland, Romania, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, Argentina, Australia, New Zealand, and South Africa.^[155] It was certified gold in Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Greece, Hungary, the Netherlands, Sweden, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, Brazil, and Colombia.^[155] After Best Buy clearanced the album for $2 in April 2011, it re-entered the US Billboard 200 again in the week ending April 3, 2011, selling 3,200 copies, enough for the 198th position. At that date, the album had sold 614,000 copies in the US according to Nielsen Soundscan.^[156] In the UK, it has sold 365,899 copies as of July 2014.^[157]

[SoulMonster]

"Commercial failure" depends on perspective. Was it a commercial failure for Axl? It depends on how he was paid. If he was paid up-front independent on sales figures, then I guess it wasn't a commercial failure to him (but the underwhelming sales may mean it was an artistic failure). Was it a commercial failure for UMG? It depends. I dunno. Maybe not if they recuperated their investment through deals with the likes of Best Buy who had exclusivity for the US market and who bought quite a lot of records before release with no option to return unsold units. Was it a commercial failure for the likes of Best Buy? Probably I mean, Best Buy bought 1.3 copies upfront and the record has probably sold less than that in the US by today.

Do I care? No, not at all

[T-Minus]

The only way you can call it a failure is in it's inability to live up to the suspense, intrigue and anticipation. In that sense, it bombed. But like I said, Axl, doing literally NOTHING to promote it, before, during and after is a massive factor in that. It should have came out earlier, in 06/07 would have been ideal.

I don't care if it bombed or not though personally, it doesn't influence how i hear the music.

[SoulMonster]

As for revenues: I have read that a record label typically earn $10 per record sold. With 4-6 millions sold, this amounts to 40-60 millions. With 3 millions, like some believe, the number is 30 million. The profit for the record company, on the other hand is naturally much lower. You have to subtract manufacturing costs, promotion costs, and royalties to artist and publisher, composer, and the like. And the manufacturing cost of CD was substantial. Rough and general numbers on these costs for a record that sells 1 million copies:

Manufacture: 1 million

Promotion: 1 million

Royalties: 2.4 million

But the manufacturing costs of CD was 13 million! So, with 3 millions sold, the combined costs should be something like 23.2 millions (13+3+7.2), leaving only 6.8 millions in profit. With 4 millions sold, the profit is 13.4 million, with 6 millions, it is 26.6 millions. This may sound like a lot, but typical manufacturing costs is 1 million, not 13, meaning that there is a loss of 12 millions in profit, or just half of what would have been expected for a normal record if it sold 4 million units.

Of course, I don't know how well these numbers can be applied to CD, every record is different, but at least it gives some ballpark figures.

[wasted]

But that money to make CD came out of 100s of millions GNR made the label. They blew 7 mil on the Nov Rain video?

[Iron MikeyJ]

It out sold Thriller, im talking 60 of million easy.

[Słash]

But how was it split between the band? Axl put his money, so its obvious he would take a higher %, so any idea how much % who got of the CD Sales?

[wasted]

The only way you can call it a failure is in it's inability to live up to the suspense, intrigue and anticipation. In that sense, it bombed. But like I said, Axl, doing literally NOTHING to promote it, before, during and after is a massive factor in that. It should have came out earlier, in 06/07 would have been ideal.

I don't care if it bombed or not though personally, it doesn't influence how i hear the music.

Axl doing nothing probably had no effect on sales. The story of Axl doing no promo was the promo.

It didnt bomb it was one of the best selling records of 2008.

Impossible to live up to the hype. But damn it nearly did. 12 GNR classics.

[DR DOOM]

It out sold Thriller, im talking 60 of million easy.

I'm pretty sure at last count it shifted around 3 bajillion plus.