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  • Topics

  • Posts

    • US Politics/Elections Thread
      My favourite "analyst" is Michael Pachter from the world of video games. The guy has been consistently wrong for over a decade and yet publications still ask for his opinion on everything under the sun. Looking at his Wikipedia page, I found this: "In 2005, he recommended selling Netflix stock and buying Blockbuster stock, predicting that Blockbuster would hold the video-on-demand market." Nate Silver has made some great predictions in the past, but he's been wrong, wrong, wrong about Trump throughout this election cycle. And yet still people are willing to take his word as gospel.
    • US Politics/Elections Thread
      What is often overlooked by many those who want to believe in the prospect of Trump winning the election is that there is a tremendous amount of academic literature and historical data that predicts such an outcome as highly improbable.  There have only been two elections in the last 60 years where the person behind in the polls this early in the election cycle came back to win in November (1980, Carter vs. Reagan; 1992, Bush vs. Clinton).  Could it happen again?  Sure, but precedent states it's unlikely.   As for how many got Trump wrong with respect to winning the GOP nomination, myself included, it's largely as a result of two faulty assumptions.  The first is that the party generally always nominates the candidate most electable.  The second assumption that proved false was that the party would nominate someone who upholds the typical party policy prescriptions.  You find neither in these factors in Trump (Kasich does much better against Clinton than Trump; policy planks like free-trade and low taxes on the rich are not supported by Trump).   What's interesting about Trump (and this also applies to Sanders) is that his candidacy essentially tells his supporters that any financial downturn felt in their lives is not their fault.  The GOP use to be the party of "personal responsibility."  However, with the white middle class finally getting squeezed and facing the same lack of opportunity that many within the minority communities have faced for decades, the principle of personal responsibility has lost its appeal and place.  Trump allows many who use to claim the mantle of personal responsibility to now say what's happening to themselves and their neighbours is not their fault - it's China's, it's Obama's, it's Mexicans, it's muslims.  I find that a very interesting shift in American politics.  Does the GOP now become the party of scapegoating to a level unseen before in American politics?  Does the party split in two, with the significant portion of the party branching off and launching anew?  It's been 40 years since the last political alignment in American federal politics (the average lifespan of an alignment is 40 years, so we're due).  Perhaps what we've known and learned about the political system no longer applies?   Regardless, besides the polling, there's some very high hurdles a Trump presidency now faces.  Trump has received more media attention than any other candidate in the history of American electoral politics.  And yet, month-over-month, his likability and popularity ratings continues to drop.  Essentially, the more people learn about the man the less they like.  How does he come back from that?  I don't think he can.  His only chance is to bring his opponent down.  The problem there, as I've stated before, is that the personal attacks he's used so effectively in the Republican primary likely won't work in the general.  Only 25 to 30 percent of the American public self-identify as Republican.  Thus far Trump has garnered the support of 13-15 percent of the total voting electorate.  Attacking Clinton's character may appeal to some, but it will also turn off many others (I'd argue more).  Again, who is Trump appealing to?  The likely 50 million Americans who listen to Conservative talk radio.  And the tone and character found on conservative talk is ugly, nasty, detached from reality and fact.  With that respect, it should come as no surprise that Trump prevailed and something many, including myself, missed.   Perhaps we're in the midst of a complete political realignment whereby conventional wisdom and the usual rules don't apply.  Anything can happen.  But political science is the study of probabilities.  And all probabilities state that Trump will not only lose, but get crushed and badly hurt the Republican party down ballot.  This isn't based on personal bias (it's why you didn't hear me arguing that the Democrats would pick up seats in the 2010 and 2014 midterms) but an understanding of longstanding trends and historical precedents.  The country is getting younger, more educated, increasingly urbanized, and less white.  Those are not attributes that helps a Trump candidacy.   P.S. Shades, you're at your limit with respect to private messages.  Please clear out some space in your inbox so that I can notify you when and why a post is removed.  We generally keep moderation actions private between mods/admins and members.  
    • 05/07/16 - Lisbon, Portugal - Passeio Maritimo De Alges
      If Angus truly values the almighty dollar he'd be wise to have at least one AXL/DC shirt. Where's that "shut up and take my money" meme? It took me a few seconds to realize that he didn't have crutches in those photos. It's on indeed!
    • WANTED Original 1988 Needle Skull Appetite Tour Shirt
      I understand man. If you happen to have an extra or come across an original for sale please keep me in mind. I expect to pay a good bit for it as far as what the market asks for em so if you let me know first chances are I'll buy it and be ready to pay right away if I haven't already found one before then!
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