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Jakey Styley

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About Jakey Styley

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    GNR, RHCP, The Beatles, Kanye West, Chief Keef, Competitive Halo. Chick-Fil-A, Grilled Chicken Jalapeno Cheddar Pretzel Bread HotPockets, Claussen Hot 'n' Spicy Pickles, Dairy Fresh Chocolate Milk, DriveThru brand burgers (70seconds in the microwave from the freezer)

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  1. Slash Axl and Duffs Finances prior to Reunion

    They were probably far from broke, but realizing they couldn’t keep living the lives they were accustomed to for the next 30 years without a reunion.
  2. US Politics/Elections Thread

    The thing is that even if Warren dropped out, Bernie would still be losing significantly. The shitty cat is out of the bag - there are less progressives than there are moderates.
  3. It sounds like he’s figuring out how to approach it.
  4. Stock Market and The Global Economy Thread

    Continuing with SPY puts, have a cheeky call on grubhub though. Blue Apron up 500% this week because of restaurants closing!
  5. Stock Market and The Global Economy Thread

    How temporary do you guys think the bounce will be?
  6. Stock Market and The Global Economy Thread

    Nice! SPY here too. I did well with a couple short term (one week ahead) puts because I couldn’t easily afford the more expensive ones a month out. I’m very new to options. Now that I have more money in this I’m going to buy one tomorrow that’s about 4-6 weeks out. Could you tell me what you mean by the IV getting too high and not being able to make significant money? I’m hoping the market has a slight bounce tomorrow from people trying to buy today’s dip followed by a horrible Monday.
  7. US Politics/Elections Thread

    If, and this is a very big if, the coronavirus levels off and the economy recovers in the next 4 months, Trump could ride it to a victory under “I got us through the coronavirus crisis.” However, I see the chances of this as being less than 15%. I think we’re at the beginning of the coronavirus crisis. I think the best argument for Trump losing is how close 2016 was - it requires such a small mobilization from Democrats to take some of those battleground states that he won. Say what you want about Biden, but he proved in the primaries that he is MUCH stronger than Hillary, he honestly impressed me with the demographics he was able to win over. Add onto this the fact that Democrats won’t be taking a victory for granted like last one.
  8. Stock Market and The Global Economy Thread

    Buying puts, succeeding
  9. COVID-19 Outbreak

    My school just moved all classes online for the rest of the semester, pretty weird feeling.
  10. US Politics/Elections Thread

    I think he'll go with Klobuchar. I think going with Abrams is too on-the-nose pandering to identity politics, especially considering that this VP pick has a very legitimate chance of being president. I don't think people will appreciate having Abrams shoved down their throat just because she's a black woman (whether or not you believe she's qualified, this is how it will be seen). The right wouldn't let the Dems live it down either.
  11. US Politics/Elections Thread

    I spent yesterday looking over delegate numbers and the forecasts of states going forward - it’s really over. The only states that favor Bernie going forward are small delegate states. All of the remaining big delegate states - Florida (Biden lock), Michigan, PA, Ohio, all favor Biden. Bernie can pull off an upset in one or two of them but for him to win at this point would require a SERIES of unlikely upsets to occur. I saw one analyst put it this way: suppose the next two weeks goes according to current forecasts, but afterwards there is a seismic event (like a horrible Biden debate) and Bernie won every single remaining state by 15%. In this scenario he still barely ties Biden. The numbers are just really not in his favor. Bernie would need something to change right now.
  12. US Politics/Elections Thread

    Can't you do the same to Trump though? I think Trump's election, his current approval among Republicans, as well as Biden's ascendancy shows us that gaffes, lies, being a moron on stage etc don't actually matter as much as we think they do. Biden can act as an empty vessel through which the Democrats can vote out their disdain for Trump. He is capable of filling that role well at least. I just don't think that if he loses it will be because of a lack of sharpness given who he is going up against.
  13. US Politics/Elections Thread

    The conclusion here doesn't necessarily follow from the evidence...isn't it more likely that they are simply halting spending because today confirmed Warren was no longer viable? Why is a conspiracy *more* likely here?
  14. US Politics/Elections Thread

    I just impulsively switched my bet. 10% reporting with Bernie in the lead
  15. US Politics/Elections Thread

    I had my bet on Bernie a week ago because Bloomberg and Biden were splitting the moderate vote hard according to polls. I switched after Klobuchar dropped out and Beto endorsed Biden. Plus, Hillary beat Bernie 936k to 476k in 2016. We'll see though, this was a tough decision for me.