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US Politics/Elections Thread

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27 minutes ago, Padme said:

It was closer than I thought. I would like to know what Mitt Romney plan is.

Do we care really? The GOP should be folded.

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25 minutes ago, -W.A.R- said:

Do we care really? The GOP should be folded.

It was clear from day 1 that Trump was not going to be removed from office. Replublicans have a majority in the Senate. But Romney sided with Democrats. He comes from a very red State

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1 hour ago, Padme said:

It was closer than I thought. I would like to know what Mitt Romney plan is.

He's hoping to be Bloomberg's VP

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1 hour ago, Padme said:

It was clear from day 1 that Trump was not going to be removed from office. Replublicans have a majority in the Senate. But Romney sided with Democrats. He comes from a very red State

He's rich as hell, doubt he cares if hes re-elected. History however will say he was the sole Republican that voted to remove Trump.

Edited by -W.A.R-

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Now that word is coming out that Republicans were too scared to vote to remove Trump, can we stop saying that the Democrats are the ones without balls?

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7 minutes ago, Georgy Zhukov said:

Now that word is coming out that Republicans were too scared to vote to remove Trump, can we stop saying that the Democrats are the ones without balls?

I disagree with this frame. Mainstream Republicans and Democrats both are ball-less when it comes to going against their big donors and giving their bases what they want (on the right it's immigration restriction, on the left it's socialized healthcare and a pullback from neoliberal economics...and they both want a pullback from our wars which neither will give). 

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13 minutes ago, Basic_GnR_Fan said:

I disagree with this frame. Mainstream Republicans and Democrats both are ball-less when it comes to going against their big donors and giving their bases what they want (on the right it's immigration restriction, on the left it's socialized healthcare and a pullback from neoliberal economics...and they both want a pullback from our wars which neither will give). 

Nah, the Republicans were afraid of backlash on social media and their own party leader so they voted to acquit. The exception is Mitt Romney who loves God and country more than the party. He is the only Republican with a spine. 

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15 minutes ago, Georgy Zhukov said:

Nah, the Republicans were afraid of backlash on social media and their own party leader so they voted to acquit. The exception is Mitt Romney who loves God and country more than the party. He is the only Republican with a spine. 

You'd be a good writer for the Onion, good stuff Georgy!

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1 hour ago, Jakey Styley said:

Does anyone here use predictit.org? 

I'd never heard of this before. And its blowing my mind!

So, if I understand correctly, this is Data Capitalism where they mine our data from us first hand. And this is incentivized by gambling?

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Just now, Basic_GnR_Fan said:

You'd be a good writer for the Onion, good stuff Georgy!

You do know that privately, Republican Senators knew Trump is guilty but they were afraid of the backlash from Trump, Fox News and social media trolls. They all just bent over and took it so they can get on their daddy's good side. The Republicans have no balls. 

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18 minutes ago, Georgy Zhukov said:

You do know that privately, Republican Senators knew Trump is guilty but they were afraid of the backlash from Trump, Fox News and social media trolls. They all just bent over and took it so they can get on their daddy's good side. The Republicans have no balls. 

Listen, I know talent when I see it, when someone uses Willard's name and love of country in the same breath, I know they have what it takes to write at the Onion.

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Games for days. Can we just go win New Hampshire already??

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7 minutes ago, Basic_GnR_Fan said:

Listen, I know talent when I see it, when someone uses Willard's name and love of country in the same breath, I know they have what it takes to write at the Onion.

I'm sure love for his country was his motivation when he was busting out companies and leaving workers without their pensions. Real country man there.

Look i'm not mad he voted for impeachment but pretending hes a man of integrity makes me sick. Has been a common theme in the Trump era with McCain and even W at one point.....Egh.

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50 minutes ago, soon said:

Games for days. Can we just go win New Hampshire already??

Team Pete here! 
#MayorPete! #SuckitSanders! :lol: 

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4 minutes ago, Dazey said:

Team Pete here! 
#MayorPete! #SuckitSanders! :lol: 

What has you on the Pete train? Genuinely curious which of his policies has you so tickled (no troll). 

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10 minutes ago, Dazey said:

Team Fucktard here! 
#MayorCheat! #SuccessIsSanders! :lol: 

Enjoy Cheat while it lasts ;):P

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13 minutes ago, Basic_GnR_Fan said:

What has you on the Pete train? Genuinely curious which of his policies has you so tickled (no troll). 

I think he’s progressive policy wise in a way that might actually get somewhere. I love Bernie’s policies but I don’t think they’re realistic. If you look at Pete’s policies he’s to the left of Obama but seen as centrist in comparison to Sanders and Warren.

Currently he’s polling worse than Bernie vs Trump but I think given a few more primaries if he continues to do well he could be the break out candidate. I’ll go out on a limb at this point and say it going to be Bernie vs Pete for the nomination.

I think Biden’s in real trouble now and Warren is pretty much done as long as Bernie stays in the race. 

Edited by Dazey

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8 hours ago, soon said:

I'd never heard of this before. And its blowing my mind!

So, if I understand correctly, this is Data Capitalism where they mine our data from us first hand. And this is incentivized by gambling?

It's like gambling but presented in a stocks-format, in which one can buy shares of anything from who will win the NH primary to how many tweets Trump will make next week (seriously, there's a market for anything). It is kind of free data-mining for candidates, I hadn't thought of it like that before, but it isn't really good data. The price of each option's shares add up to $1, so in the case of the polls, they can *very* roughly be translated into polling percentages/likelihoods of winning. I emphasize that it is a rough translation because the percentages go through so many market distortions -  people following media narratives, emotions, the fact that people are trying to make money, etc. Usually I find that the bets on there are exaggerated reflections of official poll models (like fivethirtyeight's), for example, Bernie was at like 70cents for Iowa the day of, and while most people would've thought he was likely to win Iowa, it'd be a little weird to say he was 70% likely to win it (models had him at like 40%).

 

I have a bunch of money on Biden crashing and burning and Bloomberg taking his spot. I bought shares of Bloomberg just winning *one* primary (any) for 38cents, so if he wins one I get a 2.5x return. 

Edited by Jakey Styley

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I think Biden will bounce back with Nevada and South Carolina. Unless Pete somehow wins those. We'll get an idea who will be the candidate after the first Super Tuesday.

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13 hours ago, Jakey Styley said:

It's like gambling but presented in a stocks-format, in which one can buy shares of anything from who will win the NH primary to how many tweets Trump will make next week (seriously, there's a market for anything). It is kind of free data-mining for candidates, I hadn't thought of it like that before, but it isn't really good data. The price of each option's shares add up to $1, so in the case of the polls, they can *very* roughly be translated into polling percentages/likelihoods of winning. I emphasize that it is a rough translation because the percentages go through so many market distortions -  people following media narratives, emotions, the fact that people are trying to make money, etc. Usually I find that the bets on there are exaggerated reflections of official poll models (like fivethirtyeight's), for example, Bernie was at like 70cents for Iowa the day of, and while most people would've thought he was likely to win Iowa, it'd be a little weird to say he was 70% likely to win it (models had him at like 40%).

 

I have a bunch of money on Biden crashing and burning and Bloomberg taking his spot. I bought shares of Bloomberg just winning *one* primary (any) for 38cents, so if he wins one I get a 2.5x return. 

Its truly fascinating.

Im thinking you will indeed get a nice return on Biden futures. 

I take your point about the candidates not getting the clearest data. At a glance this is an academic project? So I assume there is some value to the academics - and likely a methodology? And I think you get at that in your post - how people respond to media narratives, emotions and personal gain - is possibly precisely what they're looking at?  It says the gathered info is provided for free to the academic community. So its a really neat blend of open source and profit seeking. 

Whatever its about I can definitely see how someone might derive a great deal of fun from playing. Hope you kick ass on there.

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