British Politics

[DieselDaisy]

You couldn't even have a second referendum unless Britain stays in the EU past the date of the European elections, and the EU don't want Britain to remain past the date of the EU elections for obvious reasons, so...

It is a complete non sequitur, a second referendum.

[AtariLegend]

DUP just said they still won't vote for it. So unless alot of Labour MPs rebel, this is pointless.

About to find out of anything came from the indictive votes.

Edited March 27, 2019 by AtariLegend

[janrichmond]

9 hours ago, Dazey said:

I think I have a bit of a Thatcher crush thing going on with a certain type of women of a certain age of that particular political leaning.  

Well, hello there young man 

[AtariLegend]

That settles it, need a general election.

Second referendum vote, lost yet still got alot more support than her deal.

[DieselDaisy]

I have been saying it for ages. We need a new election to put this miserable Parliament out of its sorry existence.

PS

I just realised that Donald Tusk resembles the Crazy Frog.

Edited March 27, 2019 by DieselDaisy

[DieselDaisy]

Basically every single newspaper is running the exact same storyline, with the exact same photo,

Meanwhile The Star goes for something different,

Spoiler

But I like the swear kit.

Edited March 27, 2019 by DieselDaisy

[Padme]

11 hours ago, DieselDaisy said:

I have been saying it for ages. We need a new election to put this miserable Parliament out of its sorry existence.

PS

I just realised that Donald Tusk resembles the Crazy Frog.

There was an election in 2017. The result was a hung parliament. Nothing is going to change despite another election. Why? Because all these current MP are going to run and win again 

[DieselDaisy]

3 minutes ago, Padme said:

There was an election in 2017. The result was a hung parliament. Nothing is going to change despite another election. Why? Because all these current MP are going to run and win again 

I completely disagree. The whole politically climate of Britain has completely changed.

[AtariLegend]

tigs voted against customs unions, so did Caroline Lucas. Most of the Lib Dems abstained and so did the SNP.

Clearly it could get through.

27 Labour MPs voted against referendum. Only need 14 of those labour MPs to supported it.

 

[DieselDaisy]

10 minutes ago, AtariLegend said:

tigs voted against customs unions, so did Caroline Lucas. Most of the Lib Dems abstained and so did the SNP.

Clearly it could get through.

27 Labour MPs voted against referendum. Only need 14 of those labour MPs to supported it.

 

How are you supposed to have another referendum though?

The EU have stipulated, for quite sensible and logical reasons pertaining to Britain electing MEPs to an assembly they'll no longer belong to, that they do not want the United Kingdom involved in the European elections (23rd-26th May). To have a referendum would necessitate extending Brexit past the date of the European elections!

Unless you somehow convince the EU otherwise, a second referendum is quite literally impossible!

PS

I suppose the EU could pass some strange law which allows Britain to be in the EU but prohibits her from electing MEPs haha. 

Edited March 28, 2019 by DieselDaisy

[Len Cnut]

14 hours ago, janrichmond said:

Well, hello there young man 

He was born the year Sid Vicious died, he might be a reincarnation.  I mean the similarities are all there, cuz Sid was an ignorant know-nothing yobbo too

Edited March 28, 2019 by Len Cnut

[DieselDaisy]

How is a second referendum possible then?

Quote

 

It would take at least 22 weeks to hold a referendum, following parliament’s initial decision. This is required for passing legislation, question testing by the Electoral Commission, and preparing and holding the campaign. An extra six weeks might be needed if a three-option question were used.

Article 50 would thus need to be extended, but this should be easy to achieve. The biggest complication is the European Parliament elections, due in late May 2019.

 

https://ukandeu.ac.uk/how-and-when-might-a-second-referendum-on-brexit-come-about/

It is a mathematical impossibility. 

[Dazey]

56 minutes ago, DieselDaisy said:

How is a second referendum possible then?

https://ukandeu.ac.uk/how-and-when-might-a-second-referendum-on-brexit-come-about/

It is a mathematical impossibility. 

Because if the EU sense that a second referendum would cancel Brexit altogether I think that they could be persuaded. 

A general election is less likely than a second referendum due to the fixed term parliament act. Basically for this to happen you would have to get a parliamentary majority on a vote of no confidence in the government and I seriously doubt that would happen.

[Padme]

1 hour ago, DieselDaisy said:

I completely disagree. The whole politically climate of Britain has completely changed.

 It is about who will be running in an eventual election and their position about Brexit.

[DieselDaisy]

3 minutes ago, Dazey said:

Because if the EU sense that a second referendum would cancel Brexit altogether I think that they could be persuaded. 

A general election is less likely than a second referendum due to the fixed term parliament act. Basically for this to happen you would have to get a parliamentary majority on a vote of no confidence in the government and I seriously doubt that would happen.

The EU are already shitting their pants about AfD, M5S and FN sweeping the election as it is haha. They can hardly be expected to permit Brexiteers hijacking the assembly.

[DieselDaisy]

3 minutes ago, Padme said:

 It is about who will be running in an eventual election and their position about Brexit.

Everything has now changed in British politics. Brexit has torn asunder the Tories and Labour. The Independence Group capable of drawing remainers from both Tories and Labour, are a new factor and we are yet to see what Farage's Brexit Party poses. A general election would almost certainly be a ''Brexit Election''. 

There would literally be no other issue but Brexit in fact. 

[Padme]

2 minutes ago, DieselDaisy said:

''Brexit Election''. 

Of course! And it could go either way, meaning the election could end being a second referendum in disguise. Now if Farage wins by a landslide. We know it's hard Brexit. But what if Remain condidates from Tories, Labour, SNP, etc end up with a huge win? In that case Brexit won't happen at all

[Dazey]

10 minutes ago, DieselDaisy said:

Everything has now changed in British politics. Brexit has torn asunder the Tories and Labour. The Independence Group capable of drawing remainers from both Tories and Labour, are a new factor and we are yet to see what Farage's Brexit Party poses. A general election would almost certainly be a ''Brexit Election''. 

There would literally be no other issue but Brexit in fact. 

Yeah but the issue is that the government can't actually call an election. 

[DieselDaisy]

3 minutes ago, Padme said:

Of course! And it could go either way, meaning the election could end being a second referendum in disguise. Now if Farage wins by a landslide. We know it's hard Brexit. But what if Remain condidates from Tories, Labour, SNP, etc end up with a huge win? In that case Brexit won't happen at all

I actually think everything has changed in relation to the bilateral parties. Tons of Labour/Tory MPs have had deselection hovering over them at some stage. May herself has went through 29 - I repeat 29 - cabinet ministers because of Brexit! A general election would change things further.

It is very hard to predict but I could see TIG going into partnership with the Lib Dems and maybe the Greens, either informally or as something more substantial, and producing a remainer voting block. They'd need to draw in more MPs from the two main parties but that is conceivable. Something similar could happen with the Brexit Party but they haven't got a presence yet; there are many leave voters who say they'll never vote again, and by that what they really mean is ''never vote for the two mainstream parties again'' for abandoning Brexit - these are a factor.  

Whatever happens, everything has changed. 

 

 

[DieselDaisy]

8 minutes ago, Dazey said:

Yeah but the issue is that the government can't actually call an election. 

Vote of no confidence. You said it.

They had that chance earlier but blew it I suppose, but events have moved on considerably since then. 

[Dazey]

15 minutes ago, DieselDaisy said:

Vote of no confidence. You said it.

They had that chance earlier but blew it I suppose, but events have moved on considerably since then. 

Yeah but my point is that why would any of the sitting government MPs vote for a General Election to potentially lose their seats? I could see the logic back when it looked like May would win a huge majority at the last election but it wouldn't make sense now.

Also that previous vote of no confidence was only for May's leadership. That in itself wouldn't have triggered a GE. For that to happen you would need a commons majority and a no confidence vote in the government as a whole.

Edited March 28, 2019 by Dazey

[Padme]

14 minutes ago, DieselDaisy said:

I actually think everything has changed in relation to the bilateral parties. Tons of Labour/Tory MPs have had deselection hovering over them at some stage. May herself has went through 29 - I repeat 29 - cabinet ministers because of Brexit! A general election would change things further.

It is very hard to predict but I could see TIG going into partnership with the Lib Dems and maybe the Greens, either informally or as something more substantial, and producing a remainer voting block. They'd need to draw in more MPs from the two main parties but that is conceivable. Something similar could happen with the Brexit Party but they haven't got a presence yet; there are many leave voters who say they'll never vote again, and by that what they really mean is ''never vote for the two mainstream parties again'' for abandoning Brexit - these are a factor.  

Whatever happens, everything has changed. 

 

 

The two mainstream parties never abandoned anything. Because they showed support for Remain to begin with. Boris, Gove and others were the exception not the rule. You could say Corbyn is a closet Brexiter. Well this is not the right time to be in the closet. If he really is a Brexiter. He better say it loud and clear. On top of that those hard Brexiters didn't vote for  UPIK in the last election. So they didn't vote at all or they voted for two mainstream parties.

[DieselDaisy]

13 minutes ago, Dazey said:

Yeah but my point is that why would any of the sitting government MPs vote for a General Election to potentially lose their seats? I could see the logic back when it looked like May would win a huge majority at the last election but it wouldn't make sense now.

I am assuming they'd do the decent thing and put this moribund Parliament out of its sorry existence. They're not exactly enjoying proceedings, are they, and May can barely keep a cabinet together? They're not passing the legislation they genuinely want to as Parliamentary debate has been hijacked by Brexit. 

The ones in danger of being unseated are remain MPs in leave constituencies, and leave MPs in remain constituencies. This doesn't apply to many. Arch-Brexiteer (''no-dealer'') and tory totty Priti Patel will be reelected for instance (leave 61%) as would Liz Truss (66%). All of these Greater London Labour Remain MPs will probably be re-elected also. They'd be deselections irrespective. You'd expect Momentum to cull the Blairite traitors, most of whom would probably join TIG. 

Edited March 28, 2019 by DieselDaisy

[DieselDaisy]

Besides, they'll all face being up-seated as a consequence of a general election in 2022 at the latest, irrespective of what happens. 

[Dazey]

50 minutes ago, DieselDaisy said:

I am assuming they'd do the decent thing and put this moribund Parliament out of its sorry existence. They're not exactly enjoying proceedings, are they, and May can barely keep a cabinet together? They're not passing the legislation they genuinely want to as Parliamentary debate has been hijacked by Brexit. 

The ones in danger of being unseated are remain MPs in leave constituencies, and leave MPs in remain constituencies. This doesn't apply to many. Arch-Brexiteer (''no-dealer'') and tory totty Priti Patel will be reelected for instance (leave 61%) as would Liz Truss (66%). All of these Greater London Labour Remain MPs will probably be re-elected also. They'd be deselections irrespective. You'd expect Momentum to cull the Blairite traitors, most of whom would probably join TIG. 

My point being that even the hardcore Brexiteers wouldn't want to be responsible for the fall of a Tory government. I was listening to Jacob Rees-Mogg on Julia Hartley-Brewer  this morning and she was asking him about his leadership ambitions. One of the lines of questioning was whether he would go against the government in a no confidence vote given that he was the one who led the vote against Theresa May last year. His response was that no matter how disastrous the current situation is he would always vote for the Conservative leader rather than risk a Jeremy Corbyn government.

Edited March 28, 2019 by Dazey