SoulMonster Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 6 minutes ago, DieselDaisy said: I can only presume you have never bothered looking at the polling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DieselDaisy Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Just now, SoulMonster said: I meant the proper poling and not just a bunch of meaningless surveys, last night's general election in which the British people handed a 78 seat majority to a leader whose campaign is adorned with the following slogan, 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoulMonster Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Just now, DieselDaisy said: I meant the proper poling and not just a bunch of meaningless surveys, last night's general election in which the British people handed a 78 seat majority to a leader whose campaign is adorned with the following slogan, So you also don't know the difference between "poll," "election" and "survey" in addition to not understanding that not everybody who voted in last night's election did it because of Brexit? Alright! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DieselDaisy Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 1 minute ago, SoulMonster said: So you also don't know the difference between "poll," "election" and "survey" in addition to not understanding that not everybody who voted in last night's election did it because of Brexit? Alright! Are you saying remainers voted to a great extent for a leader whose campaign was dominated by ''get Brexit done''? Heck, the Tories actually lost Putney, a heavy remain constituency! The Liberal Democrats, the ''remain'' party, had an awful night, their leader losing her seat. Where are you honestly going with this Soul? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DieselDaisy Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 - The people voted to leave the EU in 2016 in an ''once in a generation'' referendum. - The people voted for The Brexit Party in the 2019 EU election. - The people awarded a landslide victory to Boris's Euroscepticised Tories on a ''get Brexit done'' ticket in the 2019 general election. Yet Soul puts more faith in surveys haha. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoulMonster Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Just now, DieselDaisy said: Are you saying remainers voted to a great extent for a leader whose campaign was dominated by ''get Brexit done''? No, I am not saying anything about "a great extent." It doesn't have to be "a great extent" when the average difference between "remain" and "leave" in this year's polls is much less than 10 %. The real question is, could the discrepancy between the result of the general election and the vast majority of polls this year be down to tribalism and people voting for other issues than Brexit? And I am sure a statistical analysis of this would result in a clear "yes" to that question. There simply isn't a perfect overlap between the general election and people's opinion on Brexit and the difference can be sufficient to there still being a majority of people wanting to remain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoulMonster Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, DieselDaisy said: - The people voted to leave the EU in 2016 in an ''once in a generation'' referendum. - The people voted for The Brexit Party in the 2019 EU election. - The people awarded a landslide victory to Boris's Euroscepticised Tories on a ''get Brexit done'' ticket in the 2019 general election. Yet Soul puts more faith in surveys haha. Not "surveys" but "polls", you ignoramus. And yes, I put more faith in a statistically sound poll on whether people want to leave or remain in the EU over a general election where people elected their politicians for the next four years (or however long it is) for all the reasons I have already explained but which you have failed to understand. I am sure I could simplify my argument and maybe get you to understand it, but I am not emotionally invested enough in this argument (or you) to even bother. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DieselDaisy Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 1 minute ago, SoulMonster said: I put more faith in a statistically sound poll...over a general election Nobody mistook you for a democrat Soul. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DieselDaisy Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 5 minutes ago, SoulMonster said: No, I am not saying anything about "a great extent." It doesn't have to be "a great extent" when the average difference between "remain" and "leave" in this year's polls is much less than 10 %. The real question is, could the discrepancy between the result of the general election and the vast majority of polls this year be down to tribalism and people voting for other issues than Brexit? And I am sure a statistical analysis of this would result in a clear "yes" to that question. There simply isn't a perfect overlap between the general election and people's opinion on Brexit and the difference can be sufficient to there still being a majority of people wanting to remain. Virtually the whole of Boris's campaign was about ''getting Brexit done'' whereas virtually the whole of Corbyn's campaign was about conveniently ignoring Brexit and instead focusing on NHS, housing, ''anti-austerity'', etc. The people awarded the former a landslide whereas Labour suffered their worst electoral performance since the 1930s. But you can sit happy in your delusion Soul - by all means. What is relevant is Boris has a majority which means Brexit will happen and there will be no recourse to second referenda and such like. Remain has been defeated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoulMonster Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 1 minute ago, DieselDaisy said: Nobody mistook you for a democrat Soul. When it comes to understanding the public's opinion on Brexit it is a given that I put more faith in a statistically sound poll that gauges the public's opinion on the very topic of Brexit than a general election where people's vote is influenced not purely by Brexit but also other political issues and tribalism. Anyone with an understanding of statistics (so obviously not you) would grasp this, and so would anyone with just a modicum of general understanding. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DieselDaisy Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, SoulMonster said: When it comes to understanding the public's opinion on Brexit it is a given that I put more faith in a statistically sound poll that gauges the public's opinion on the very topic of Brexit than a general election where people's vote is influenced not purely by Brexit but also other political issues and tribalism. Anyone with an understanding of statistics (so obviously not you) would grasp this, and so would anyone with just a modicum of general understanding. ...the best gauge of public opinion being the yes/no referendum of 2016. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoulMonster Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, DieselDaisy said: But you can sit happy in your delusion Soul - by all means. What delusion would that be? Ah, of course, you think that my argument is that the majority of people still wants to remain in the EU (despite me having explicitly stated I will delay any opinion on that until I see a poll on the subject and that I have pointed out that a more fresh poll would be valuable since people's opinion may have swung towards remain), and not that it is wrong to interpret the general results as evidence for anything in regards to Brexit. I should never underestimate your ability to fail to understand. Thank you for teaching me that valuable lesson….again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoulMonster Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 1 minute ago, DieselDaisy said: ...the best gauge of public opinion being the yes/no referendum of 2016. That was the best gauge of what people wanted at that snapshot in time. Since then numerous polls have been conducted that are statistical meaningful and that indicate that since 2016 people's opinion have swung towards remain resulting in a majority wanting to still be in the EU. Why do I even have to repeat this to you? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DieselDaisy Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, SoulMonster said: What delusion would that be? Ah, of course, you think that my argument is that the majority of people still wants to remain in the EU (despite me having explicitly stated I will delay any opinion on that until I see a poll on the subject and that I have pointed out that a more fresh poll would be valuable since people's opinion may have swung towards remain), and not that it is wrong to interpret the general results as evidence for anything in regards to Brexit. I should never underestimate your ability to fail to understand. Thank you for teaching me that valuable lesson….again. 1 minute ago, SoulMonster said: That was the best gauge of what people wanted at that snapshot in time. Since then numerous polls have been conducted that are statistical meaningful and that indicate that since 2016 people's opinion have swung towards remain resulting in a majority wanting to still be in the EU. Why do I even have to repeat this to you? Give it up Soul. You've been beaten democratically, or at least the side you opt to align yourself with, Britain's remainism, has been beaten. Boris has his majority and will now proceed with implementing the results of the 2016 referendum. Such is democracy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoulMonster Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, DieselDaisy said: Give it up Soul. You've been beaten democratically, or at least the side you opt to align yourself with, Britain's remainism, has been beaten. Boris has his majority and will now proceed with implementing the results of the 2016 referendum. Such is democracy. You are mistakenly trying to align the argument I am making against conflating the general election result with perfect assessment of the public's opinion on Brexit, with some kind of opposition against the general election result. Fascinating. It is of course sad that a Brexit is now more likely -- because I think the Brits will do much better within the union than outside and I want all the best for you -- and from a more fundamental viewpoint, even more sad if the Brexit happens in disagreement with the public' opinion at the time it happens but based on what people wanted 3-4 years ago, but this doesn't at all affect me personally. I am happy for everybody who is happy for the result, and feel with those who don't. I am sure life will go on and that the Brits will do the best out of the situation. In many ways, there is a new potential crisis emerging with Scotland wanting independence. I wonder how that will pan out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DieselDaisy Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 (edited) My new MP looks like Clarence Boddicker from RoboCop, 10 minutes ago, SoulMonster said: Brexit is now more likely Impossible to see it not happening given the size of Boris's majority. I don't even think the keys to Number 10 being handed to Mr Farage himself would convince you of the groundswell support for leave here! Edited December 13, 2019 by DieselDaisy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soon Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 11 years to address the climate crisis. But you lot prioritized Brexit instead. So what you've done is mandated your government to focus on establishing new trade deals instead of addressing the greatest existential emergency of an age. And whereas new trade deals could be green (with enough other greening of your economy). But to do this you have chosen to toss out a bunch of ecologically informed MPs and have a Conservative seek out new trade deals. All but assuring that said deals wont meet the green needs of this climate emergency. Way to monumentally miss the point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoulMonster Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 6 minutes ago, DieselDaisy said: I don't even think the keys to Number 10 being handed to Mr Farage himself would convince you of the groundswell support for leave here! If the majority had voted for a party that was based around one and only one issue, Brexit, then of course that would be more indicative of what the people wanted on that issue. But that is not the case here, the Conservatives, who got the most votes now and more than in 2015, is not a pure Brexit party, so off-handedly dismissing that more people could have voted Tories because they simply want conservative politics, or because Labour failed to arouse voters, or because of other election dynamics, or that some of these voters did so for tribal reasons, is simply a logical fallacy. Not everybody who went to the urns did so to affect Brexit. Thinking otherwise is at best splendidly naive. You cannot equate the general election results with some kind of perfect assessment of the public's opinion on Brexit. It isn't that simple. We just don't know the exact reasons why people rallied around the Conservatives. Some (maybe many) did it because they want to leave the EU. Some did it because they found Labour horridly detestable and thought that 4 years of Corbyn was worse than Brexit. Some did it because they always vote conservative. Some did it because they like Boris Johnson. Some did it because they want a fiscally conservative direction. And although it is not unlikely that some votes shifted to Conservatives because of Brexit, you have no way of figuring out how many they were. Just assuming they are all leave votes is simply unintellectual. It is letting your own wishes affect your conclusions. It could be that the result is indicative of a majority now being for Brexit (despite the poll from late October suggesting otherwise), but you have no way of knowing this (which should be such an accustomed feeling for you that I am sure is why you fail to question your rationale). As I have said before, my argument here is on the methodological flaw of assuming that this result means that the majority has shifted sufficiently. I am not taking a stance on what the public now wants re: Brexit. We don't know that until it is actually proven that the percentage of the new votes for the Conservatives that are caused by a desire to leave the EU is large enough to shift the majority from Remain to Leave. It goes against my every fibre to confuse such assumptions with reality. But of course, you have never seemed to be encumbered by an urge to be correct. I, on the other hand, will make sure to not make a fool of myself by waiting until a proper poll has been conducted. I am much more comfortable appearing to be stubbornly hard to move with arguments of emotion than risking being wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Basic_GnR_Fan Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 30 minutes ago, soon said: 11 years to address the climate crisis. But you lot prioritized Brexit instead. So what you've done is mandated your government to focus on establishing new trade deals instead of addressing the greatest existential emergency of an age. And whereas new trade deals could be green (with enough other greening of your economy). But to do this you have chosen to toss out a bunch of ecologically informed MPs and have a Conservative seek out new trade deals. All but assuring that said deals wont meet the green needs of this climate emergency. Way to monumentally miss the point. Climate Change is never going to be political issue number one for a large percentage of the population. If that isn't obvious by now I don't know what to tell you. What you lot could learn is that you need to pair it with other populist issues and make sure the financial burden of climate change policies doesn't hit the middle class in the pocketbook too hard. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soon Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Just now, Basic_GnR_Fan said: Climate Change is never going to be political issue number one for a large percentage of the population. If that isn't obvious by now I don't know what to tell you. What you lot could learn is that you need to pair it with other populist issues and make sure the financial burden of climate change policies doesn't hit the middle class in the pocketbook too hard. Thats exactly what the Green New Deal is about. Klein too. Labours platform wasnt outside of that philosophy either. If you dont know thats how we're organized than I dont know what to tell you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spunko12345 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 2 hours ago, DieselDaisy said: Where's the shrooms and carbs? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Graeme Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 29 minutes ago, Basic_GnR_Fan said: Climate Change is never going to be political issue number one for a large percentage of the population. If that isn't obvious by now I don't know what to tell you. What you lot could learn is that you need to pair it with other populist issues and make sure the financial burden of climate change policies doesn't hit the middle class in the pocketbook too hard. Probably will be when things start to get really bad and it's absolutely too late to do anything about it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spunko12345 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 7 minutes ago, Graeme said: Probably will be when things start to get really bad and it's absolutely too late to do anything about it. Probably. But what he's saying is correct unfortunately Gra, as depressing as that is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soon Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 This Republican, Texas Mayor and his townsfolk see it clearly. This isn't a partisan issue - its an everyone issue. And its a middle class, worker-driven transition. This right-leaning Texas town are 100% renewable energy! The workers who used to work the oil patches now work the wind farm. And its better pay, not to mention cleaner work. The boom and bust cycle of oil, with its rapidly expanding an contracting workforce is whats not fair to workers. These well paying green jobs will be there forever. Following the science makes good economic sense. Energy costs to the consumer are down too!! Listen to these concrete facts that this Republican can demonstrate conclusively, Here in more detail, This hit the news cycle a year ago. Weird its not gotten enough coverage to be a mainstay in these conversations, isnt it??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Len Cnut Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 31 minutes ago, spunko12345 said: Where's the shrooms and carbs? Whys he posted a picture of some tart eating fried tomatos, bacon and sausages? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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