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The future for Guns?


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Just now, mikeman5150 said:

Usually, but not always the case. Aerosmith had a very successful album with get a grip 20 years after their debut. Aerosmith also scored their first number 1 hit 25 years into their career. It can be done, just isn’t likely. 

I think GNR are a special enough case to do it. And to be honest, GNR are far better than Aerosmith who whilst got chart success later on in their career, had to rely on external writers to do it.

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1 hour ago, surforia said:

My bet is that if they are working on a new album, then they will NEVER tell us.  One of Axl’s biggest mistakes was promising CD numerous times and not delivering.  Because of all the talk around it, it became legendary and infamous for years and years prior to release, and it could never live up to the hype.  No way Axl would put himself in that position again.  Nope, if we get a new guns album (and I think we will), they’ll pull a Radiohead (a band Axl has been known to respect), and release it spontaneously.

I too think if they are working on a new song/album they won't say a word. For one big reason if it implodes it will hurt the GNR brand.

As far as Axl promising CD so many timesm I truely believe it was to come out in 2002 give or take a year if it was up to Axl alone. The record company wanted a reunion plain and simple. I also think the orginal members of GNR done what they could to get it shout down. I really feel that one of the reason the plug was pulled on the 2002 us tour along with Axl being so late and not showing up at all. 

in 06 I thought cd was coming out so many things where happening and then nothing.

Axl and the record company got in a pissing contest and everyone lost even the fans. 

I am in no way saying Axl didn't fuck up and alot but I don't think it was all him. Back then if you pushed him he would push back in a way that was self destructive for all.

I wish we knew so much more from 94-2014 there is so much Mistery and crazy stories surrounding the CD era  it's hard to tell fact from fiction just on what we know much less what wee don't.

Yes Axl is an ass for sure. 

This is just a theory but did anyone else notice for the 2009/10 tour started he had gained weight he got more mellow and that continued until the end of the CD era touring,  it has been said many times he is bipolar or some other mental illness well alot of those medications you take for that cause weight gain even if you don't eat alot hell you can gain in a month up to 20+lbs if the medication affects you that way and if he did have a mental illness it could just be he found the right medication combo and said to hell with the weight I want to feel better. But that is just a thought.

 

 

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57 minutes ago, mikeman5150 said:

Usually, but not always the case. Aerosmith had a very successful album with get a grip 20 years after their debut. Aerosmith also scored their first number 1 hit 25 years into their career. It can be done, just isn’t likely. 

Aerosmith had 3 big advantages in the 80's vs. GNR now.  First and foremost, rock music was still very popular.  Second, although middle aged, they were closer to "youth" during their comeback than GNR is now.  Finally, the collaboration with RUN-DMC on "Walk this Way" brought them back to the mainstream and crossover audience.

52 minutes ago, DTJ80 said:

I think GNR are a special enough case to do it. And to be honest, GNR are far better than Aerosmith who whilst got chart success later on in their career, had to rely on external writers to do it.


GNR isn't far better than Aersomith.  Aerosmith did some great stuff before their breakup without external writers.  When they had external writers, Tyler and Perry co-wrote the songs.  They weren't full band collaborations but neither was much on UYI.  "I Don't Want to Miss a Thing" was different because it was written by Diane Warren for Armageddon and basically Aersomith were hired to perform it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Gnrcane said:

Aerosmith had 3 big advantages in the 80's vs. GNR now.  First and foremost, rock music was still very popular.  Second, although middle aged, they were closer to "youth" during their comeback than GNR is now.  Finally, the collaboration with RUN-DMC on "Walk this Way" brought them back to the mainstream and crossover audience.


GNR isn't far better than Aersomith.  Aerosmith did some great stuff before their breakup without external writers.  When they had external writers, Tyler and Perry co-wrote the songs.  They weren't full band collaborations but neither was much on UYI.  "I Don't Want to Miss a Thing" was different because it was written by Diane Warren for Armageddon and basically Aersomith were hired to perform it.

I realise my opinion of Aerosmith is likely very different to others - im just not a fan. That said - regardless of how much success they had before - bringing in external writers is a big no-no in my book and something that I just couldn’t see GNR doing (unless you count Izzy....😆). You are right though about the timing falling just right for them in the late 80s etc.

That said, I reckon a GNR album hyped the right way could be a massive shot in the arm for not just the band but music in general.

Edited by DTJ80
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get your wings, toys in the attic, rocks. those are aerosmith's truly great albums imo. 1989's pump was a fairly strong release but it is not one of my favorites. always felt guns was a better band in comparison in many ways. the outside writers thing is fucked up.

on topic: I think axl will only release a guns album that he believes in, and is good enough to not ruin the catalog. I can see them trying to do it and see if they still have the chemistry in the studio. I think slash and duff are willing to work hard with axl and the rest of the band but no matter what it will probably take a few years to complete.

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Two ways - They'll keep on doing the same exact shows for 3 or 4 years in a Farewell Tour, and then, Axl Rose waits 'till he's 63, and his contract with mercuriadis will end and then, he'll release something.
Or...
The band will go on a farewell tour, no new songs. And then, in November 2038, they'll release the "vault albums", pretty much like Prince n' Pink Floyd done in the past.

 

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27 minutes ago, NeonKinight said:

Two ways - They'll keep on doing the same exact shows for 3 or 4 years in a Farewell Tour, and then, Axl Rose waits 'till he's 63, and his contract with mercuriadis will end and then, he'll release something.
Or...
The band will go on a farewell tour, no new songs. And then, in November 2038, they'll release the "vault albums", pretty much like Prince n' Pink Floyd done in the past.

 

It's just depressing that we probably won't hear 'new' GNR songs until 2025, at the earliest.

Quote

"Sanctuary Music Group has signed Axl Rose to a publishing deal. Until recently, Warner Chappell published the Guns N' Roses frontman's works." (Sanctuary Group, 01/24/05)

"The notoriously unpredictable Axl Rose signed with Sanctuary [...] in a deal believed to be worth £10 million [...] after months of negotiations through his lawyers. [...] Deke Arlon, Sanctuary's head of publishing, said: '[...] We spent years trying to find the right deal.' [...] Although rival publishers are believed to have offered more, Rose felt more comfortable with Sanctuary's business plan." (The Times, 01/26/05)

"Guns N' Roses' manager Merck Mercuriadis, who just so happens to be CEO of Sanctuary Group, said he didn't want to comment beyond the announcement of the deal. Industry experts have valued the 20-year deal at about $19 million." (Yahoo, 02/01/05)

 

Axl would've therefore leased his share of the GNR back catalogue (1/3 since the band formation up to 05/01/98 and 100% of whatever music released under the band moniker ever since) up to the year 2025. He would be 63 years old when the rights would revert back to him.

"The deal covers both future material and catalogue. Rose's contribution to such hits as 'Sweet Child O' Mine,' 'Paradise City' and 'November Rain' are covered under the deal, as are dozens of new tracks Rose has recently recorded for Universal Music." (Sanctuary Group, 01/26/05)

 

http://www.gnrevolution.com/viewtopic.php?id=3760

 

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29 minutes ago, NeonKinight said:

Two ways - They'll keep on doing the same exact shows for 3 or 4 years in a Farewell Tour, and then, Axl Rose waits 'till he's 63, and his contract with mercuriadis will end and then, he'll release something.
Or...
The band will go on a farewell tour, no new songs. And then, in November 2038, they'll release the "vault albums", pretty much like Prince n' Pink Floyd done in the past.

 

This chat must have passed me by - what’s the deal with mecuriadis contract?

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24 minutes ago, DTJ80 said:

This chat must have passed me by - what’s the deal with mecuriadis contract?

 

24 minutes ago, Gordon Comstock said:

"Sanctuary Music Group has signed Axl Rose to a publishing deal. Until recently, Warner Chappell published the Guns N' Roses frontman's works." (Sanctuary Group, 01/24/05)

"The notoriously unpredictable Axl Rose signed with Sanctuary [...] in a deal believed to be worth £10 million [...] after months of negotiations through his lawyers. [...] Deke Arlon, Sanctuary's head of publishing, said: '[...] We spent years trying to find the right deal.' [...] Although rival publishers are believed to have offered more, Rose felt more comfortable with Sanctuary's business plan." (The Times, 01/26/05)

"Guns N' Roses' manager Merck Mercuriadis, who just so happens to be CEO of Sanctuary Group, said he didn't want to comment beyond the announcement of the deal. Industry experts have valued the 20-year deal at about $19 million." (Yahoo, 02/01/05)

 

Axl would've therefore leased his share of the GNR back catalogue (1/3 since the band formation up to 05/01/98 and 100% of whatever music released under the band moniker ever since) up to the year 2025. He would be 63 years old when the rights would revert back to him.

"The deal covers both future material and catalogue. Rose's contribution to such hits as 'Sweet Child O' Mine,' 'Paradise City' and 'November Rain' are covered under the deal, as are dozens of new tracks Rose has recently recorded for Universal Music." (Sanctuary Group, 01/26/05)

 

http://www.gnrevolution.com/viewtopic.php?id=3760

there u go

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I think we are overstating the significance of the Sanctuary deal.

If the original value of the deal was $19m, and we’re already 65% into it, then it’s not inconceivable that Axl would dedicate a small portion of the truckload of cash he’s hauling in off NITL tour to buy the contract out.   Plus, if he wants to cut Slash and Duff back in, I’m sure they would contribute to the buyout as well.  If guns bought the contract out at even half the original estimated value of $19m (ie, $9.5m), then isn’t that basically the payday for only like 3 NITL shows?  No big deal.  Plus, guns has leverage - they could just tell Sanctuary, “You can either accept the buyout or we’ll just sit tight for 8 more years and not release anything.”  

Moreover, the deal with Sanctuary obviously didn’t stop the AFD box set from being released.  

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7 hours ago, DTJ80 said:

Why do folk think that it’s unlikely there will be new music? Obviously the CD-saga points at a specific issue although there is no lack of material that much we do know.

Also - Tom Zutaut confirmed Slash had added work to Atlas did he not? And Axl has confirmed he has played material to Slash and Duff - with Richard saying bits have been worked on in the studio (albeit it could be him/Dizzy etc). From what I can see there is a great starting point with the existing material which could be revitalised.

I know there have been no official confirmations by the band etc but that’s not to say nothing is actually happening - particularly nowadays where songs can be worked on at different locations and files transferred online!

Mainly because theyve been talking about new music for 10 yrs

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4 hours ago, bigcountry said:

I too think if they are working on a new song/album they won't say a word. For one big reason if it implodes it will hurt the GNR brand.

As far as Axl promising CD so many timesm I truely believe it was to come out in 2002 give or take a year if it was up to Axl alone. The record company wanted a reunion plain and simple. I also think the orginal members of GNR done what they could to get it shout down. I really feel that one of the reason the plug was pulled on the 2002 us tour along with Axl being so late and not showing up at all. 

in 06 I thought cd was coming out so many things where happening and then nothing.

Axl and the record company got in a pissing contest and everyone lost even the fans. 

I am in no way saying Axl didn't fuck up and alot but I don't think it was all him. Back then if you pushed him he would push back in a way that was self destructive for all.

I wish we knew so much more from 94-2014 there is so much Mistery and crazy stories surrounding the CD era  it's hard to tell fact from fiction just on what we know much less what wee don't.

Yes Axl is an ass for sure. 

This is just a theory but did anyone else notice for the 2009/10 tour started he had gained weight he got more mellow and that continued until the end of the CD era touring,  it has been said many times he is bipolar or some other mental illness well alot of those medications you take for that cause weight gain even if you don't eat alot hell you can gain in a month up to 20+lbs if the medication affects you that way and if he did have a mental illness it could just be he found the right medication combo and said to hell with the weight I want to feel better. But that is just a thought.

 

 

I think you’re right that the record company f#cked things up around the release of CD, but on the other hand, nobody put a gun to Axl’s head and made him tell Rolling Stone at the Korn album release party that he had finished 26 of 32 tracks (or whatever it was).  Same with the Kurt Loder interview.  Same with playing CD at random strip clubs, etc.  Same with the 2006 MTV VMAs (or whichever one he attended to introduce The Killers).  Every time he opened up about the album, it just created more pressure and hype, and the album became more mythical (none of which was his fault, really).  No, my guess is that everything stays close to the vest this time (hence Slash’s comment “I’m not lighting that fuse.”).

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16 minutes ago, surforia said:

I think we are overstating the significance of the Sanctuary deal.

If the original value of the deal was $19m, and we’re already 65% into it, then it’s not inconceivable that Axl would dedicate a small portion of the truckload of cash he’s hauling in off NITL tour to buy the contract out.   Plus, if he wants to cut Slash and Duff back in, I’m sure they would contribute to the buyout as well.  If guns bought the contract out at even half the original estimated value of $19m (ie, $9.5m), then isn’t that basically the payday for only like 3 NITL shows?  No big deal.  Plus, guns has leverage - they could just tell Sanctuary, “You can either accept the buyout or we’ll just sit tight for 8 more years and not release anything.”  

Moreover, the deal with Sanctuary obviously didn’t stop the AFD box set from being released.  

Well shit, I hadn't thought of it like that. Those are some GREAT points!

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36 minutes ago, surforia said:

I think we are overstating the significance of the Sanctuary deal.

If the original value of the deal was $19m, and we’re already 65% into it, then it’s not inconceivable that Axl would dedicate a small portion of the truckload of cash he’s hauling in off NITL tour to buy the contract out.   Plus, if he wants to cut Slash and Duff back in, I’m sure they would contribute to the buyout as well.  If guns bought the contract out at even half the original estimated value of $19m (ie, $9.5m), then isn’t that basically the payday for only like 3 NITL shows?  No big deal.  Plus, guns has leverage - they could just tell Sanctuary, “You can either accept the buyout or we’ll just sit tight for 8 more years and not release anything.”  

Moreover, the deal with Sanctuary obviously didn’t stop the AFD box set from being released.  

Why would it stop it? He only has 1/3 of that material. It wouldn't even make sense for Axl or Sanctuary to stop it because 100% of nothing is less than 33.3% of something.

What you say is true, I guess, but why would Slash and Duff help to buy out Axl's contract? They already have their share of the most valuable parts of the catalogue.

I'm going to throw out the conjecture that there is a stipulation somewhere that Sanctuary can take action on if they can confirm Axl is deliberately ripping them off and a threat by the band to shelve music would probably open up a lawsuit.

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1 hour ago, Wagszilla said:

I'm not familiar with the intricacies of the music business but the above is simplistic at best.

You're not mentioning profitability, costs, an early buyout fee, and more. 

Axl/GNR are likely the only people who care about buying out the contract. This isn't Michael Jackson buying The Beatles catalog. 

It's an extremely small market, like looking for gold-plated Lamborghini Murcielago in the middle of Alaska. They have absolutely no leverage in the deal.

The shows promote themselves to a large extent but Live Nation has been doing enough leg work on top of it.

Can you picture Team Brazil working the Asian and Euro markets to push a new album in those markets? Can you picture the business savvy of Beta being the greasy handshake that moves mountains within the industry like Azoff and his ilk? 

Yeah, that's what I though.

Axl's been around LA long enough to know some people but that surely doesn't translate to reliable business connections. 

Axl drove the GNR brand into the ground the last 20 years, why the fuck would anyone sell low when the brand is at it's relative apex? 

Well maybe, and I agree that TB doesn’t seem like the most business savvy team, but buying out a lease 65% of the way into the deal isn’t exactly sending a man to the moon either.  No need to move mountains.  I’m sure they would just hire some bigtime law firm to handle the negotiations anyway.  

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1 hour ago, newusedillusion said:

Why would it stop it? He only has 1/3 of that material. It wouldn't even make sense for Axl or Sanctuary to stop it because 100% of nothing is less than 33.3% of something.

What you say is true, I guess, but why would Slash and Duff help to buy out Axl's contract? They already have their share of the most valuable parts of the catalogue.

I'm going to throw out the conjecture that there is a stipulation somewhere that Sanctuary can take action on if they can confirm Axl is deliberately ripping them off and a threat by the band to shelve music would probably open up a lawsuit.

My thought was based on an assumption (which could be entirely false for all I know) that Slash and Duff currently don’t have rights in future gnr music releases of new material.  If I were them, I would want some stake in the new music, so maybe they chip in to buyout the Sanctuary contract, and in exchange for that, Axl cuts them back in?  Seems logical, but this is gnr we’re talking about after all, so who knows? 

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10 hours ago, Gnrcane said:

Aerosmith had 3 big advantages in the 80's vs. GNR now.  First and foremost, rock music was still very popular.  Second, although middle aged, they were closer to "youth" during their comeback than GNR is now.  Finally, the collaboration with RUN-DMC on "Walk this Way" brought them back to the mainstream and crossover audience.


GNR isn't far better than Aersomith.  Aerosmith did some great stuff before their breakup without external writers.  When they had external writers, Tyler and Perry co-wrote the songs.  They weren't full band collaborations but neither was much on UYI.  "I Don't Want to Miss a Thing" was different because it was written by Diane Warren for Armageddon and basically Aersomith were hired to perform it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I was talking more about Aerosmith in the 90’s, when they did get a grip and nine lives. They headlined Woodstock 94’ and just seemed to be very popular with the mainstream. It seemed everything they did from 93-98 worked well for the masses. Steven Tyler was 50 when I don’t wanna miss a thing was released so yeah they were a bit younger than GNR at this point.  

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