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ZoSoRose

STAR WARS: RISE OF SKYWALKER - SPOILERS!!!

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Here are the estimated projections of where the movie will be by the end of this weekend:

$474 million domestically

$983 million worldwide

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$990 million now! Just a little bit more to go. :)

Its total will end up somewhere a little greater than Rogue One, but a little less than The Last Jedi.

Edited by rocknroll41
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Colin Trevorrow & Derek Connolly's script reviewed. Very different from final film.

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Amir just beat me to it.

This draft feels more like a proper closing coming off of episode 8 (imo).

Edited by Coma16

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I think that draft is fake. I know it’s coming from a credible guy in the film industry, but something about it just doesn’t sound right to me.

And even if it is real, I don’t really like it tbh. Reads like bleak fan fiction to me. Much prefer the movie we actually got.

That being said, there are a few things there I do like a lot and wish we saw, the biggest one being Rey running around a moon with a bunch of star destroyers under construction, disguised as a tuskin raider, and wielding a double-bladed blue lightsaber made from her staff and the cracked crystals from the Anakin/Luke blade... That sounds really cool.

Most of the rest sounds dumb to me, tho.

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This movie tanked. A billion is a lot but its also pretty bad for the supposed final episodic Star Wars

I also think the Trevorrow script is worse than the actual movie. Id have rather they spent anotjer 6 months of fine tuning on the current story

 

Oh well

Edited by ZoSoRose

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1 hour ago, ZoSoRose said:

This movie tanked. A billion is a lot but its also pretty bad for the supposed final episodic Star Wars

I also think the Trevorrow script is worse than the actual movie. Id have rather they spent anotjer 6 months of fine tuning on the current story

 

Oh well

A billion will still turn a profit of about $200 million in for Disney once the dust settles (if my math is right, that is), and then it’ll generate a little bit more of a profit for them once it goes to home video and streaming. Is it still a lot less than what they probably wanted? Probably. That being said, I’m not really sure if “taking” is the right word here. More like... teetering out? I guess you know what I mean.

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1 hour ago, rocknroll41 said:

A billion will still turn a profit of about $200 million in for Disney once the dust settles (if my math is right, that is), and then it’ll generate a little bit more of a profit for them once it goes to home video and streaming. Is it still a lot less than what they probably wanted? Probably. That being said, I’m not really sure if “taking” is the right word here. More like... teetering out? I guess you know what I mean.

Even if it turns a profit, a billion is very weak for this movie and regardless of my opinion on SW movies since 2015, it shows Disney failed to capitilize on the brand like they should have. I say that as someone who likes the Sequel Trilogy.

This was marketed as the final Skywalker film. It should be competing with Force Awakens, Endgame, Titanic, Jurassic World, Avengers, etc in terms of worldwide gross. Instead, it could end up the same as the poorly reviewed Aladdin remake. Sure, a billion is still a lot of money, but yikes.

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6 hours ago, ZoSoRose said:

Even if it turns a profit, a billion is very weak for this movie and regardless of my opinion on SW movies since 2015, it shows Disney failed to capitilize on the brand like they should have. I say that as someone who likes the Sequel Trilogy.

This was marketed as the final Skywalker film. It should be competing with Force Awakens, Endgame, Titanic, Jurassic World, Avengers, etc in terms of worldwide gross. Instead, it could end up the same as the poorly reviewed Aladdin remake. Sure, a billion is still a lot of money, but yikes.

I do see what you mean, but I don’t think it was ever getting to Infinity War, Endgame, Titanic, or Force Awakens numbers (i.e. $2 billion +). Titanic got there on re-releases. The two Avengers films had strong international appeal (which Star Wars never really had apart from some markets like UK and Japan). Force Awakens was a fluke since it was the first “real” Starwars movie in 32 years, so everyone wanted to see what all the fuss was about. And due to the strong connections  that this trilogy needed to have to the OT, I don’t think it was ever destined to really win over those international audiences who didn’t really care in the first place. Stuff like Mandalorian is proving tho that future movies do indeed have the potential of finding new audiences.

That all being said, I do agree that Disney fucked up a little bit (the domestic numbers show). As much as I like Solo, releasing that movie and Rogue One in between the trilogy installments, and doing it all once per year, was a massive mistake! All the jumping around in such a short amount of time made the IP lose its sense of identity. Starwars films work better at the frequency of the first two trilogies (as in one movie only every 3 years, with nothing in between). Makes each film feel more like a rare occurrence, and gives each generation more of a reason to identify with what they refer to as “their starwars” (like gen x’ers did with the OT and millennials did with the PT). Instead, they went full “white trash wins lotto” with it and turned out as much as they could, as quickly as they could.

Disney seems to have learned from that mistake now tho. The CEO admitted “too much too fast.” The future spin off films are canceled. The next cycle of movies (that yoda trilogy or whatever it is) will run at a “once every 2 years” frequency (still not great but better). Best of all, thanks to their new “project Luminous” initiative, most of the content from other mediums (books, comics, and games) will be better connected to the films, so not as much jumping around through different time periods anymore. All of that (along with the fact that future films no longer have to lean so hard on the OT) will help to give the next movie cycle more of its own unique voice that kids (more international ones included) could identify with as “belonging” to them.

TLDR: Disney did indeed fuck up a little bit, and that did hurt TRoS a little bit, like you’re saying. But I don’t necessarily think all of it was their fault, and I don’t think the movie was ever getting to $2 billion anyways. The future looks bright tho. $2 billion is never happening with these movies ever again, I don’t think, but that was probably just a once in a lifetime thing for this IP anyways, and the IP itself still has the potential to do really, really well, if they play their cards right from now on. 

Edited by rocknroll41

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Just read the new alleged Collin Trevorrow script details from RMB’s “part 2” video (RBM is the guy who leaked the initial proposed Collin script details the other day).

Wow, that script sounds really, REALLY bad! Luke’s ghost disowning Kylo (“you’re no Skywalker”)? Rey becoming blind? Rey and Poe relationship? Rey being rewarded (seemingly) for becoming a “grey” Jedi? Hux stabbing himself with a lightsaber cause he can’t feel the force?

This is all way too dark and/or random for a finale starwars movie. I’m seriously having a hard believing any of this shit is real.

Edited by rocknroll41

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8 hours ago, rocknroll41 said:

A billion will still turn a profit of about $200 million in for Disney once the dust settles (if my math is right, that is), and then it’ll generate a little bit more of a profit for them once it goes to home video and streaming. Is it still a lot less than what they probably wanted? Probably. That being said, I’m not really sure if “taking” is the right word here. More like... teetering out? I guess you know what I mean.

The movie apparently cost $275 million and a good rule of thumb generally is that you can usually double that when you take marketing costs into account. That would mean Disney spent about $550 million in total. If the movie finishes with $1.05 to $1.1 billion then that's a profit of $500-$550 million which isn't amazing but it's good by anybody else's standards.

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1 hour ago, Dazey said:

The movie apparently cost $275 million and a good rule of thumb generally is that you can usually double that when you take marketing costs into account. That would mean Disney spent about $550 million in total. If the movie finishes with $1.05 to $1.1 billion then that's a profit of $500-$550 million which isn't amazing but it's good by anybody else's standards.

About half of the box office returns go to theater chains and other parties tho. So it’ll really end up being more like a $250-275 million profit for Disney, which is still pretty good imo. Money is money, at the end of the day. Besides, it’ll continue to make a little bit more on top of that once it goes to streaming and home video, as I said earlier.

EDIT: another factor that I forgot to take into account is the fact this movie apparently was intentionally promoted less aggressively than the other two, so that probably helped them save on marketing costs, actually.

Edited by rocknroll41

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52 minutes ago, rocknroll41 said:

About half of the box office returns go to theater chains and other parties tho.

Good point. Hadn't thought of that. Guess I assumed that they made all their money selling $50 popcorn. :lol:

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I can appreciate the direction that Duel of Fates script tried to go in - because clearly, they were trying to tell a cohesive story that carried on what happened after Last Jedi. I cant attest if it would have been any good or not and a lot of it from description sounds like it lacks any sense of scope.

But my instinct would have been to fully embrace Kylo Ren as the villain of the series. He had so much going for him in that capacity by the end of Last Jedi that I really thought you don't need a puppet master character like Snoke or the Emperor - Driver had really and truly grown into the psychology of this broken man.

He still managed to find a way to make his character the most successful thing about the new films, but I think he was robbed a bit by Disney's ambivalence about  letting him go full Snidely Whiplash.

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My ranking of the saga films after letting this digest and rewatchimg them recently. Obviously, the OT wind from outright nostalgia. Trying not to take that too much into account, my preferences are,

1. The Empire Strikes Back

2. A New Hope

3. The Last Jedi

4. Return of the Jedi

5. The Force Awakens

6. The Rise of Skywalker

7. Revenge of the Sith

8. Attack of the Clones

9. The Phantom Menace

Edited by ZoSoRose
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Taking a page out of @ZoSoRosebook:

 

1. The Empire Strikes Back

2. The Force Awakens

3. Rise of Skywalker

4. Return of the Jedi

5. A New Hope

6. Revenge of the Sith 

7. The Last Jedi

8. Attack of the Clones

9. The Phantom Menace

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6 hours ago, rocknroll41 said:

I do see what you mean, but I don’t think it was ever getting to Infinity War, Endgame, Titanic, or Force Awakens numbers (i.e. $2 billion +). 

Yes. Because people realized it was starting to turn to shit. It had all the good will with TFA, even though it being a rehash. Then it disappointed many with TLJ, which halted multiple viewings and it disappointed further with TROS, hence diminishing returns. If Disney had played their cards right, there would have been no reason for it at least to do equal (or better) than TLJ. Traditionally the third one always did better than the second. Doesn't look like that will happen this time.

 

2 hours ago, appetite4illusions said:

But my instinct would have been to fully embrace Kylo Ren as the villain of the series. He had so much going for him in that capacity by the end of Last Jedi that I really thought you don't need a puppet master character like Snoke or the Emperor - Driver had really and truly grown into the psychology of this broken man.

Agreed. Would have been way better than to turn him into a man-boy who doesn't really know what he wants.

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47 minutes ago, PatrickS77 said:

Yes. Because people realized it was starting to turn to shit. It had all the good will with TFA, even though it being a rehash. Then it disappointed many with TLJ, which halted multiple viewings and it disappointed further with TROS, hence diminishing returns. If Disney had played their cards right, there would have been no reason for it at least to do equal (or better) than TLJ. Traditionally the third one always did better than the second. Doesn't look like that will happen this time.

 

Agreed. Would have been way better than to turn him into a man-boy who doesn't really know what he wants.

I see your point, but there is one thing to note: TRoS is technically the fifth movie of the new era, not third, if you count the spinoffs. If we count them that way, then the pattern still remains of first film making the most, second film making the least, and third film making somewhere in the middle:

Force Awakens - $2.1 billion

Rogue One - $1 billion

Last Jedi - $1.3 billion

A lot dumb people that I know walked into Rogue One thinking they were going to see Episode 8 (some of them were even dumb enough to walk OUT of the movie thinking they had just seen Episode 8!).

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The movie crossed a billion now. :)

$481 million domestic

$519 million international

im gonna stop with the box office updates now, unless it passes Rogue One.

In other news, some hard evidence is coming out now that the Duel of the Fates draft is indeed real. Upon reading more details, I’m starting to warm up to it, but overall, I still prefer the movie we actually got.

Edited by rocknroll41
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26 minutes ago, rocknroll41 said:

I see your point, but there is one thing to note: TRoS is technically the fifth movie of the new era, not third, if you count the spinoffs. If we count them that way, then the pattern still remains of first film making the most, second film making the least, and third film making somewhere in the middle:

Force Awakens - $2.1 billion

Rogue One - $1 billion

Last Jedi - $1.3 billion

A lot dumb people that I know walked into Rogue One thinking they were going to see Episode 8 (some of them were even dumb enough to walk OUT of the movie thinking they had just seen Episode 8!).

LOL yeah. It's time to give it up then. Considering that Rogue and Solo did 1 billion and .4 billion respectivly, which is some ways off from the "proper" Episodes, which all did more, I'm hoping that those are really only the dumb people you know. :P;)

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22 hours ago, DieselDaisy said:

Who cares about how much a film makes? 

some people want the things they like to succeed, even if they don't profit from it personally.

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Now that I’ve had even more time to digest the leaked details from Colin’s script, I gotta admit that I’m finding more and more things that I like, mainly with Finn’s arc. Some sorta combo between Colin’s version and JJ’s would’ve been the ideal. Ultimately tho, if I had to pick just one version, I still prefer the movie we got.

That being said, I recall thinking back in the day that the ideal endpoint for Episode 9 would be for Rey to create a new order that merges light and dark, cause I couldn’t think of any other way to make this new trilogy feel “important” with respect to the rest of the saga. However, having now actually seen the movie, I think that by bringing back Palpatine and implying through Anakin’s one line that the prophecy is a cyclical thing that’s destined to keep repeating, JJ found a more fitting way to give this trilogy a sense of “importance” when put alongside the other movies.

In a weird sorta way, I think Colin’s version is the more fitting end to this trilogy specifically, while JJ’s version is a more fitting end to the saga as a whole. And personally, I think the latter is the more important in the grand scheme of things.

Edited by rocknroll41
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