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6 minutes ago, downzy said:

My understanding is that China was able to act drastically once it fully comprehended the threat and was able to shut it down using authoritarian means.  South Korea got on top of the issue very quickly and started testing anyone and everyone while expediting their quarantine practices.  Contrast those responses to places like Italy, Iran, Spain, and soon the US, where it seems authorities are either late to the party or unwilling to take such drastic actions.  

Yes, early action certainly meant a lot, and is likely the main reason for different outcomes.

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Might as well write something while I listen to the show.

So imagine a single new corona virus coming to life somewhere. Let's call the fellow Kåre. It's a precarious existence if you are a little particle with no ways of copying yourself unless you get lots of help. Likely, in a few hours you will break apart and there will be no more Kåre, no corona virus. The lineage of Kåre will end before it starts. Just a fluke in the evolution of viruses. But if, on the other hand, and this is likely highly unusual, a suitable hosts happens to consume you, you have a fair chance. Let's say this host is a human being eating an undercooked bat, or rather unwashed bat. Anyway, now Kåre travels down the throat of the unknowing host until it finds a suitable cell to which it can attach and penetrate. When inside, Kåre releases its precious cargo: a long RNA molecule that codes for 10 proteins. These proteins are required to built new corona viruses. When released, the RNA quickly take sover the host cell, re-programming it away from its normal activities and instead build new coronaviruses. Kåre has become a father :) Soon thousands of descendents of Kåre fills up the interior of the host cell, until the cell disrupts (or is opened) and the brood of Kåre swarms over nearby cells infecting them too. In the next generation a thousand viruses will now be a million, then a billion. The poor host starts to suffer symptoms. Painful throat (or wherever it is Kåre infected), fever because of the immune system fighting against the invader), coughing to rid the respiratory tracts of mucus and viruses. 

A fortunate start to the life of Kåre and his kind. But of course, this is all to no good unless at least one of his billions of offspring can make it to a new host in time. Because soon the original host will manage to fight down the intruder. Its immune system will fight its own dedicated warriors who efficiently kills any virus particles it can find. It is only a time before the invasion has been beaten down. Or, on the other hand, if the host isn't able to do this, and Kåre and his children can continue to ravage endlessly inside his body, he might die. Regardless, unless some of the offspring makes it to a new host, the disease starts and stops here.

Now it all comes down to where the first infection takes place. Was it deep in the jungle of Vietnam in a small village with little contact with others? Or deep inside a large city of 10 million in China? Let's consider the latter. Cities are perfect for viruses. Lots of people in close contact with each other. Kissing, handshaking, touching surfaces… just heaven. If the virus is free to wander about, infecting at will, a large proportion will sooner or later get infected. And it will spread quickly. Depending on what is done to stop it, and its modes of transmission, the number of infected will grow exponentially in the beginning, doubling the number of infected every few days. Kåre would be proud. But then herd immunity kicks in. The number of people who have had the disease and are now immune because of their enhanced immune systems, means that there are less and less susceptible hosts left, and they are further and further apart. Just imagine in this city of 10 mill, when 5 mill has had the disease, the distance between each new potential hosts has doubled. That effectively reduces how likely it is a given virus can find a new host. It effectively reduces infection rates. Herd immunity protects the rest. The disease burns itself out.

To quicken this, sensible nations will try to identify infected people and keep them away from others. Or, if more drastic measures are needed, try to keep all people apart from each other. And then the virus is fucked. 

Unless it adapts. Unless it evolves.  

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3 hours ago, SoulMonster said:

Pre-peer-review data could indicate that the virus can spread more efficiently through air, which would have implications on quarantine approaches. 

who would have thought, eh

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3 hours ago, SoulMonster said:

Could have drastic implications on how we deal with things, and could explain why China and South Korea seem to fare better against the disease than some European countries. But early days still, too early to conclude.

maybe everyone wearing mouth masks in those regions could be a contributing factor?

how many cases does japan have?

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Posted (edited)

in the netherlands and france, more than half of the people in intensive care is younger than 50

I tought only elder and weak people?

nah, correction: that's what we were "told", not what I believed. I hope not too many people listened to "the experts", partying and thinking "well I'm not old or weak, I should be fine".

How many people heard those statements and thought they'd be fine?

Well, that's not something that should infer with my sleep.

Edited by action

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22 minutes ago, action said:

in the netherlands and france, more than half of the people in intensive care is younger than 50

I tought only elder and weak people?

nah, correction: that's what we were "told", not what I believed. I hope not too many people listened to "the experts", partying and thinking "well I'm not old or weak, I should be fine".

How many people heard those statements and thought they'd be fine?

Well, that's not something that should infer with my sleep.

Frankly I don't think this is the time to be smug. And yes, I will still listen to experts. I'm counting on them to help us in this crisis, not on someone panicking online.

And yes, the weak and elderly are most at risk, younger people will mostly survive. It just sucks that they're taking up hospital beds, and that's what we have to avoid.

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Posted (edited)
37 minutes ago, EvanG said:

Who says I'm out there ''partying''? I haven't been to a party in months. When did I announce that I'm getting drunk? I don't think I have ever announced something like that, let alone on a message board. When did I ''mock'' this epidemy? I think the hysteria is too much, but that's not the same as mocking it. 

This is what you do... you just make stuff up as you go along, you're talking so much nonsense. This is why someone might think you have a learning disability or some kind of handicap. You understand? Of course you don't.

 

Thanks. Maybe put a picture of Gert Verhulst in there, that's more your level.

it's a pity that you took my genuine advice to stop partying from now on (I didn't say you did party) as yet another opportunity to throw one of your hissy fits.

now, more than ever, people should make each other aware. only two days ago, a mass of people still thought nothing was wrong, and in belgium "lockdown parties" were held everywhere. This shows that even now, there are people out there that are not fully aware of the severity of the problem.

all you seem to care about is having digs at me. again. 

having said that, I hope you will be doing well. But please, use that block button. I know, there's the quoting by other people (I've blocked you long ago so I can confirm this), but maybe if we both block each other, the risk of running into each other can be minimalised as much as possible. 

Edited by action

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Interesting,

Quote

 

Debate is raging in France about what is the better model for tackling Covid-19 - the Chinese or the British. The Chinese have taken a radical system of confinement for limiting the spread - the UK is adopting a "herd immunity" approach, according to which infection of a majority is inevitable and even, if properly handled, to be welcomed.

Up until a couple of days ago, it seemed France leaned more to the "herd" philosophy. As in Britain, the official view favoured a controlled propagation - buying time so that the wave of infections is drawn out over a long period, and hospitals are not overwhelmed.

But now, suddenly, there is a shift in the other direction. First schools, then cafes, restaurants and all non-essential shops are to be closed. It seems the government now thinks Chinese- and Italian-style - draconianism is more appropriate. Except when to comes to the municipal elections, which are going ahead as planned.

If it all feels not a little improvised, that is perhaps excusable. We have, after all, never seen anything like this before.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51897069

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 When did I ''mock'' this epidemy?

I've done nothing but mock it :D 

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5 minutes ago, alfierose said:

Chill out folks. I know times are stressful and this is an emotive topic but the rule about personal insults still stands.

Please use the block button otherwise you'll just end up in enforced time out.

Thanks

Once again for those at the back.

If I have to hide anymore posts I'm issuing a one day suspension.

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1 minute ago, Len Cnut said:

I've done nothing but mock it :D 

and so did I. humouring this is good sometimes. as long as people keep in mind that playtime is over.

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Just now, action said:

and so did I. humouring this is good sometimes. as long as people keep in mind that playtime is over.

Playtime is never over :lol:  Look man, its like this right, the shit makes you sick, alright, so you got choices, be a little more extra careful, wash your hands more, maybe wear the mask if you wanna, or else isolate, or else do nothing.  Personally I'm in the latter category and so far so good, each to their own...but everything in life, EVERYTHING is always open for piss-taking in my book.  Why lose your sense of humour, worst case scenario we're gonna die, very unlikely but if it happens, despite a man taking good care, thats their bad luck, if it happens to a dirty motherfucker that did nothing well thats on him, there's a lot thats heartwarming, thought-provoking about it but there's also a lot thats funny, as evidenced by, if you read back, this thread being one of the funniest in this forum for a long time :lol:  

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1 minute ago, Len Cnut said:

Playtime is never over :lol:  Look man, its like this right, the shit makes you sick, alright, so you got choices, be a little more extra careful, wash your hands more, maybe wear the mask if you wanna, or else isolate, or else do nothing.  Personally I'm in the latter category and so far so good, each to their own...but everything in life, EVERYTHING is always open for piss-taking in my book.  Why lose your sense of humour, worst case scenario we're gonna die, very unlikely but if it happens, despite a man taking good care, thats their bad luck, if it happens to a dirty motherfucker that did nothing well thats on him, there's a lot thats heartwarming, thought-provoking about it but there's also a lot thats funny, as evidenced by, if you read back, this thread being one of the funniest in this forum for a long time :lol:  

it's people like you, Dazey and Diesel that keep me here. yeah, why not throw soulie in there too. (that's not to say I dislike anyone on here, just that to me, .... nah never mind. I'm such a nancy boy sometimes.

 

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11 minutes ago, lukepowell1988 said:

Action I love the new Avatar 

thanks. I hope it represents who I am and what I stand for

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I’m curious to see how this all plays out. Boston has cancelled school thru April 27th. A lot of states have cancelled school until the end of March. There’s a city in I think NJ that has a curfew now.

Outside of major cities, I really can’t see the US going into a complete lockdown. There’s too much at stake and the country is far too divided. I’m hoping the virus dies off with the summer heat, and then hopefully they can have a vaccine by winter. I don’t see this ending any time soon without the entire world shutting down. Even if it cleared up in a country like Italy, eventually the outside world is going to bring in more cases once they’re out of lockdown

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1 hour ago, action said:

it's people like you, Dazey and Diesel that keep me here. yeah, why not throw soulie in there too. (that's not to say I dislike anyone on here, just that to me, .... nah never mind. I'm such a nancy boy sometimes.

I sometimes wear my sisters underwear, there I said it.

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24 minutes ago, Len Cnut said:

I sometimes wear my sisters underwear, there I said it.

I'm not joking, I was taking a bath the other day, and as usual I was looking in the locker to find underwear, and there was none. "honey, there's no underwear anymore" I shouted from behind the door. "can't you go without one then for one time", she responded.

I thought, yeah that's not gonna happen. So I looked in the other locker, hers, and I picked the nicest setup I could find. something pink with a playboy bunny. but man, did it hurt the marbles. I swear I could sing bohemian rhapsody note for note that day

 

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6 minutes ago, action said:

I'm not joking, I was taking a bath the other day, and as usual I was looking in the locker to find underwear, and there was none. "honey, there's no underwear anymore" I shouted from behind the door. "can't you go without one then for one time", she responded.

I thought, yeah that's not gonna happen. So I looked in the other locker, hers, and I picked the nicest setup I could find. something pink with a playboy bunny. but man, did it hurt the marbles. I swear I could sing bohemian rhapsody note for note that day

 

I went commando for years in my 20s :lol: 

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3 minutes ago, Len Cnut said:

I went commando for years in my 20s :lol: 

i guess women's equivalent to that is anal beads

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9 minutes ago, action said:

i guess women's equivalent to that is anal beads

Speaking of anal beads, you see them big necklaces black geezers have been into the last couple of years?  Wish I could pull that shit of.

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Germany closing borders to France, Switzerland and Austria, also closing all schools, cutting down publc transport to a minimum, supermarkets running out of basic supplies like pasta, rice, soap or toilet paper, military ordered to help in hospitals and with overall security, also issuing federal money programm to help small businesses...crazy! I wonder how Monday is gonna be like, I work in healthcare, in contact with patients and staff every day so it should only be a matter of days now before I'll be put quarantine if only for precaution.

I wonder about those quarantines...I understand the reason for it, to slow down the spread and all, but if I go quarantine today then after two weeks I'll be allowed to go out again but then the virus won't have magically dissapeared all of a sudden. So it's gonna be quarantine after quarantine or what? And for how long? I don't really want to think about it. :(

 

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