Britney Spears - Blackout

[maverik]

She entered at #1 in the U.S Billboard Chart but she "only" sold 247,304, not even 250K in its 1st week. That's not that great. She used to break the 1 million mark 5 or 6 years ago.

How will do Chinese Democracy?

Edited November 6, 2007 by maverik

[Stiff Competition]

She entered at #1 in the U.S Billboard Chart but she "only" sold 247,304, not even 250K in its 1st week. That's not that great. She used to break the 1 million mark 5 or 6 years ago.

How will do Chinese Democracy?

so you felt the need to post about britney spears and to cover up you guilty pleasure, you randomly throw in the ever so popular quesition of how chinese democracy will sell?

[axlrose4eva]

anyone know how that overrated A7X album did?? $20 says Brittany Spears sold more.

[Randy Lahey]

She entered at #1 in the U.S Billboard Chart but she "only" sold 247,304, not even 250K in its 1st week. That's not that great. She used to break the 1 million mark 5 or 6 years ago.

How will do Chinese Democracy?

Chinese Democracy will surprise people I think because it will actually cater to fans of real music. Britney Spears is a gutter _______ whereas Axl is a musician so it's really not a fair comparison anyway.

Edited November 6, 2007 by Randy Lahey

[angel of death]

so you felt the need to post about britney spears and to cover up you guilty pleasure, you randomly throw in the ever so popular quesition of how chinese democracy will sell?

--

I guess it depends on what the competition is..

If there are other high priority albums coming out, it may not do so good..

If it's better than the other ass that's coming out, then it may do better..

Common sense?

[Elnombre]

Who gives a fuck. If you want to talk about Britney, find a Britney forum.

[Estranged Reality]

Chinese Democracy will most likely debut at number one, but it'll quickly drop, and it won't have an outstanding debut. This is my opinion/forecast. I think most analysts would agree. Five years ago, or even back in 1999, I think it would have sold a million easy in its opening week. But times have changed. Most people who hate Axl and would have bought it out of curiosity will now just download it out of curiosity. I've spoken to many people who have actually said they will never buy the album because they don't want to support Axl. Many people really do hate him, and these are the people who will help hurt sales. Add on top that many people will download regardless, and that the name GN'R isn't as popular amongst young teens as Kanye West (who only sold around 400,000), and you are looking at maybe - maybe - a debut of around 200,000 copies. I'm expecting similar sales to The Smashing Pumpkins' Zeitgeist, which debuted somewhere around 280,000 copies and dropped something like 63% in its second week and quickly fell off the charts. Interest and curiosity die off quick, and thanks to the digital age - downloading, CD copying, etc. - as well as a decade + lapse in releases, GN'R just doesn't have a chance of being a huge seller IMO.

At this point, I think Axl and the label know it, and I think that's part of the reason there have been holdups. They're trying to figure out how to approach this without losing all that money. And obviously, as you can see, they haven't reached a decision yet. But I'm sure that's not the *only* thing holding it back, either...

[GNR 1991]

Chinese Democracy will most likely debut at number one, but it'll quickly drop, and it won't have an outstanding debut. This is my opinion/forecast. I think most analysts would agree. Five years ago, or even back in 1999, I think it would have sold a million easy in its opening week. But times have changed. Most people who hate Axl and would have bought it out of curiosity will now just download it out of curiosity. I've spoken to many people who have actually said they will never buy the album because they don't want to support Axl. Many people really do hate him, and these are the people who will help hurt sales. Add on top that many people will download regardless, and that the name GN'R isn't as popular amongst young teens as Kanye West (who only sold around 400,000), and you are looking at maybe - maybe - a debut of around 200,000 copies. I'm expecting similar sales to The Smashing Pumpkins' Zeitgeist, which debuted somewhere around 280,000 copies and dropped something like 63% in its second week and quickly fell off the charts. Interest and curiosity die off quick, and thanks to the digital age - downloading, CD copying, etc. - as well as a decade + lapse in releases, GN'R just doesn't have a chance of being a huge seller IMO.

At this point, I think Axl and the label know it, and I think that's part of the reason there have been holdups. They're trying to figure out how to approach this without losing all that money. And obviously, as you can see, they haven't reached a decision yet. But I'm sure that's not the *only* thing holding it back, either...

Right, but, GN'R sold-out many tours from 2001 - present, and have performed in front of over 2 million people. I'm be willing to bet more than half of those people who saw GN'R in 2001, 2002, 2006, 2007 and future tours will buy CD (and probably download it, but buy it nonetheless).

I'm thinking, debut sales will be over 250k, I'm not sure about worldwide sales though. GN'R is still popular in the States, and is a helluva alot more popular in South America, Mexico, Europe, Japan, and Australia. The album won't be a flop.

[december pain]

ER, I thought Kanye sold over 900,000 albums his first week?

[Estranged Reality]

ER, I thought Kanye sold over 900,000 albums his first week?

ACK! Sorry, I meant weekend.

Wiki:

first week sales of 957,000 and Curtis's first week sales of 691,000 marked only the second time ever (since Nielsen SoundScan began collecting data in 1991) that two albums sold more than 600,000 in a week in the United States. The first occurrence of such an event was in 1991 when Guns N' Roses released Use Your Illusion I, which sold 685,000 copies, and Use Your Illusion II, which sold 770,000 copies. The first week sales totals of Graduation and Curtis have outsold the first week sales totals of Guns N' Roses' two albums.[5]

How ironic!

The thing is, even that is fairly low; big artists like Linkin Park who used to sell millions opening week debuted at 657,000 and so on. Kanye's album was the highest-selling album of the year, and considering it didn't even sell a million, that's pretty bad. But, by comparison to other albums this year, excellent, of course. He way outsold anyone else. But you have to ask yourself: will Axl, with zero publicity, none of the hype of Kanye and no "rap feud" (a la vs. 50 Cent), and no public stature amongst general public achieve the same numbers?

Edited November 6, 2007 by Estranged Reality

[Takeshi]

She entered at #1 in the U.S Billboard Chart but she "only" sold 247,304, not even 250K in its 1st week. That's not that great. She used to break the 1 million mark 5 or 6 years ago.

How will do Chinese Democracy?

Chinese Democracy will surprise people I think because it will actually cater to fans of real music. Britney Spears is a gutter _______ whereas Axl is a musician so it's really not a fair comparison anyway.

I would have thought that "former musician" would be a more accurate description. Britney's entire career has happened in the space between GN'R albums.

[Estranged Reality]

Chinese Democracy will most likely debut at number one, but it'll quickly drop, and it won't have an outstanding debut. This is my opinion/forecast. I think most analysts would agree. Five years ago, or even back in 1999, I think it would have sold a million easy in its opening week. But times have changed. Most people who hate Axl and would have bought it out of curiosity will now just download it out of curiosity. I've spoken to many people who have actually said they will never buy the album because they don't want to support Axl. Many people really do hate him, and these are the people who will help hurt sales. Add on top that many people will download regardless, and that the name GN'R isn't as popular amongst young teens as Kanye West (who only sold around 400,000), and you are looking at maybe - maybe - a debut of around 200,000 copies. I'm expecting similar sales to The Smashing Pumpkins' Zeitgeist, which debuted somewhere around 280,000 copies and dropped something like 63% in its second week and quickly fell off the charts. Interest and curiosity die off quick, and thanks to the digital age - downloading, CD copying, etc. - as well as a decade + lapse in releases, GN'R just doesn't have a chance of being a huge seller IMO.

At this point, I think Axl and the label know it, and I think that's part of the reason there have been holdups. They're trying to figure out how to approach this without losing all that money. And obviously, as you can see, they haven't reached a decision yet. But I'm sure that's not the *only* thing holding it back, either...

Right, but, GN'R sold-out many tours from 2001 - present, and have performed in front of over 2 million people. I'm be willing to bet more than half of those people who saw GN'R in 2001, 2002, 2006, 2007 and future tours will buy CD (and probably download it, but buy it nonetheless).

I'm thinking, debut sales will be over 250k, I'm not sure about worldwide sales though. GN'R is still popular in the States, and is a helluva alot more popular in South America, Mexico, Europe, Japan, and Australia. The album won't be a flop.

It's a flop either way, dude. It'll never earn back the $13 million. To turn profit, it would have to surpass $26 million, because of where the money goes and what percentage is taken.

It's the same with films. A movie with a $40 million budget only turns profit if its intake is at least double. That's why so many films that earn back their production costs are still considered flops - Superman Returns, for example.

That's the reason Axl is touring so much: he's using the tours to gain back the money he knows he won't recuperate if he just releases the album now. He's always been very smart at business tactics.

[gimmiefuel]

I know this was posted in the wrong forum, but....

actually, even though Britney has the number 1 album this week, it did not sell the most. The Eagles new album sold the most...around 700,000. But, it was only sold at Walmart and for whatever reason, Billboard does not recognise this.

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articl...206112007-1.htm

BENTONVILLE, Ark., Nov. 6 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Wal-Mart Stores, U.S. has announced that the Eagles' "Long Road Out of Eden" -- released Oct. 30 exclusively at Wal-Mart, Walmart.com, Sam's Clubs and Samsclub.com -- has sold more than 700,000 units in its first week of release. This represents the largest first week sales of any music product at Wal-Mart in the last two years. The two disc set of 20 new songs is available in store for $11.88 or $10.88 in downloadable MP3 format online.

"We were confident that Eagles fans would embrace 'Long Road Out of Eden' but it has exceeded our first week projections. With the holiday season approaching we are confident that the double CD package will be one of the biggest sellers in Wal-Mart history," said Gary Severson, senior vice president of Entertainment, Wal-Mart. "We've notified the RIAA of the sales to quickly certify 'Long Road Out of Eden's' multi-platinum status."

"The band produced and delivered an album of integrity that was in keeping with their legacy ... and the fans responded," said Irving Azoff, Eagles manager. "The phenomenal first week sales of 'Long Road Out of Eden' are a testament to Wal-Mart's marketing and distribution."

"Long Road Out of Eden" reflects the band and Wal-Mart's shared commitment to environmental sustainability. The album packaging features Domtar EarthChoice® papers. To ensure paper is sourced from well-managed forests, EarthChoice papers are certified by the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC), publicly endorsed by the Rainforest Alliance and supported by World Wildlife Fund and Forest Ethics. This unique CD package contains 30 percent post-consumer recycled fiber, and virgin fiber from FSC Certified forests or other controlled sources.

http://www.rollingstone.com/rockdaily/inde...s-eagles-wings/

Despite the fact that Britney Spears is putting minimal effort into promoting her new album, she appears to be in in command of the Billboard charts. Spears' Blackout sold 124,000 copies its first day of release, according to the magazine's Building Chart. By comparison, last week's album-sales champ, Carrie Underwood's Carnival Ride, sold 69,000 copies over the course of that same twenty-four hours. Spears is expected to sell in the ballpark of 350,000 albums her debut week, which would likely give her the top spot on the chart … by default. Industry insiders predict that the Eagles' new Long Road Out of Eden is selling copies at a rapider pace than Blackout. However, Long Road is only available in Wal-Mart, and in keeping with Wal-tradition, the chain is refusing to report sales on exclusive releases (they withheld information regarding recent Garth Brooks exclusives). So while the Eagles may be, in actuality, this week's chart kings, it might be Britney who wears the crown next week. Even Spears' victories are marred by controversy

Edited November 6, 2007 by gimmiefuel

[santana]

Britney's entire career has happened in the space between GN'R albums.

Wow.

I never thought of it like that.

[appetite4illusions]

Chinese Democracy will spark interest quick...recede then resurface. These songs will be alright at face value, but I really think its just going to be too progressive for general music fans to appreciate. It will take time, but if the record company really pumps the hell out of it songs like Catcher in the Rye might be able to get past that 'so bizzare it's interesting' phase its sure to reek of.

[slääsh]

THIS should be the final reason for axl to release that shit as fast as possible.....but first he should be photographed pantyless in public...best promo

Edited November 6, 2007 by slääsh

[MIKEYMOO]

Chinese Democracy will most likely debut at number one, but it'll quickly drop, and it won't have an outstanding debut. This is my opinion/forecast. I think most analysts would agree. Five years ago, or even back in 1999, I think it would have sold a million easy in its opening week. But times have changed. Most people who hate Axl and would have bought it out of curiosity will now just download it out of curiosity. I've spoken to many people who have actually said they will never buy the album because they don't want to support Axl. Many people really do hate him, and these are the people who will help hurt sales. Add on top that many people will download regardless, and that the name GN'R isn't as popular amongst young teens as Kanye West (who only sold around 400,000), and you are looking at maybe - maybe - a debut of around 200,000 copies. I'm expecting similar sales to The Smashing Pumpkins' Zeitgeist, which debuted somewhere around 280,000 copies and dropped something like 63% in its second week and quickly fell off the charts. Interest and curiosity die off quick, and thanks to the digital age - downloading, CD copying, etc. - as well as a decade + lapse in releases, GN'R just doesn't have a chance of being a huge seller IMO.

At this point, I think Axl and the label know it, and I think that's part of the reason there have been holdups. They're trying to figure out how to approach this without losing all that money. And obviously, as you can see, they haven't reached a decision yet. But I'm sure that's not the *only* thing holding it back, either...

Dude .....you are sadly.....oh so sadly mistaken. Chinese Democracy is not just an album...it's a project man......this thing is gonna get hyped and marketed and pushed like nothing else...just wait and see. Axl isn't going to put out shit...he can't afford to, and everyone involved from a creative and business position are well aware of this. People involved in this aren't going to see putting out shit unless there is 100% confidence in the material. This album is considered the "White Horse" to save Rock n' Roll music and bolster a lagging music industry....and not just this album either....the others as I've stated before too will create so much money for everyone involved it's not funny in the least. Axl has Universal right by the balls with this project. They need to see a well managed return on their investment on this project. $15MM for 3 albums worth of Solid Gold material is not a-lot of money with the right long term strategy in place. This album WILL SELL and WILL HAVE TIE INS, to other forms of marketing and licensing. They will make sure you know that GnR is back and that voice will be emblazoned into your subconscious because it will be everywhere. GUARANTEED!!!!

Edited November 6, 2007 by MIKEYMOO

[phaeryen]

You guys are undervaluing the fact that GNR has a lot of appeal to older folks.

Doing your estimates based on pop phenomenom album behaviour doesn't cut it here. People in their 30-40's will be interested in this one, and besides a new crowd of teenagers this album should market and cater to the tastes of people considerably past their teens and early twenties.

Still, it wont sell in the tens of millions like appetite.

but guess what.

nothing sells like that anymore. say hello to .mp3 culture. still on the rise, despite what they try to say.

[droezle]

It'll never earn back the $13 million. To turn profit, it would have to surpass $26 million, because of where the money goes and what percentage is taken.

So, 20$ (cd price) x 1.300.000 (album copies) = 26.000.000$

Piece of cake

[angel of death]

It'll never earn back the $13 million. To turn profit, it would have to surpass $26 million, because of where the money goes and what percentage is taken.

So, 20$ (cd price) x 1.300.000 (album copies) = 26.000.000$

Piece of cake

So, a free download (Torrent Price) x 1.300.000 (Album Copies) = Jack shit..

Some people will buy it, sure..But, most will download it..

And, where the hell are you paying $20 for a cd?

Fuck, that definitely warrants a download..

[droezle]

It'll never earn back the $13 million. To turn profit, it would have to surpass $26 million, because of where the money goes and what percentage is taken.

So, 20$ (cd price) x 1.300.000 (album copies) = 26.000.000$

Piece of cake

So, a free download (Torrent Price) x 1.300.000 (Album Copies) = Jack shit..

Some people will buy it, sure..But, most will download it..

And, where the hell are you paying $20 for a cd?

Fuck, that definitely warrants a download..

*Cough* Sarcasm *Cough*

To be honest. I don't care how much C.D. will cost,i buy it anyway.

Edited November 6, 2007 by droezle

[Estranged Reality]

It'll never earn back the $13 million. To turn profit, it would have to surpass $26 million, because of where the money goes and what percentage is taken.

So, 20$ (cd price) x 1.300.000 (album copies) = 26.000.000$

Piece of cake

What on earth makes you think all that money is retained by the artists or record companies?

If it were that easy to turn profit with sales, don't you think pretty much every single album that came out would be profitable?

Do you realize about 80% of films released into theaters are considered financial failures by the studios and roughly the same figures for record companies releasing CDs? It's not like they just pocket all the cash. You realize vendors, stores, and other third parties retain most of that? In fact, opening week for film releases, theaters retain up to 50% of ticket sales, and usually 30 - 40% in the following weeks.

You're also forgetting that Chinese Democracy will probably have a marketing campaign close to its release, of some sort (even if it's shitty), and all the behind-the-scene finances they've had to pay out for involving lawsuits and settlements and canceled tours and everything else we don't know about.

$13 million was the base reported cost for the album three years ago, and that doesn't include anything not directly related to the album itself but attached to production: as I said, lawsuits, canceled tours and more lawsuits resulting from this, etc., etc., etc.

There is a reason Axl has gone on tour four times. It has nothing to do with him "giving back" to the fans. Axl has already stated in the past that he hates touring and hates performing on stage 90% of the time. He's doing it because he has to recover production costs, and I'd bet my left testicle (and maybe my right) that it has to do with the lawsuits he told Eddie Trunk he "couldn't talk about" resulting from the 2002 canceled tour... you don't think all those promoters were a bit peeved at Lord Axl?

The most likely scenario? They were going to sue him for bailing (illegally) on a tour after they had invested money in the '02 tour, and they probably reached a settlement involving Axl going on tour to "make up" for their losses before. Axl has certainly hinted at this numerous times, but he is legally disallowed from speaking about active lawsuits...

Edited November 6, 2007 by Estranged Reality

[droezle]

It'll never earn back the $13 million. To turn profit, it would have to surpass $26 million, because of where the money goes and what percentage is taken.

So, 20$ (cd price) x 1.300.000 (album copies) = 26.000.000$

Piece of cake

What on earth makes you think all that money is retained by the artists or record companies?

If it were that easy to turn profit with sales, don't you think pretty much every single album that came out would be profitable?

Do you realize etc........

To be honest. At this moment i'm to damn tired to realize something decent. Here is another weird calculation. Let's assume that they are planning to release a trilogy. Very logical if you ask me when the recordcompany pumped $13 million in the album(s). Than they have to sell 433.333 copies per album. Or let's be positive. 550.000 copies per album to make it profitable. More piece of cake.

[Negleyjj]

It's the same with films. A movie with a $40 million budget only turns profit if its intake is at least double. That's why so many films that earn back their production costs are still considered flops - Superman Returns, for example.

I hate to point out another mistake, as I think you are one of the better posters on this site, and I agree with a lot of what you are saying, but this isn't really accurate. Most people don't really understand how the movie industry works (and I won't pretend that I do either), and it was reported as a flop initially, but that really wasn't the case at all. It made a big profit, especially overseas (where a LOT of would be flops or marginal movies turn into profit makers) (not to mention DVDs, which companies take into consideration when determining if their product was a flop), and a sequel was actually green-lit for it just a few months after it was released - same director and stars - it will probably start filming some time next year. Although using Hollywood accounting, LOTR, Batman, and Forrest Gump (and ~95% of all movies) can be flops, it just depends if someone is making a percentage of the movie

[Estranged Reality]

It's the same with films. A movie with a $40 million budget only turns profit if its intake is at least double. That's why so many films that earn back their production costs are still considered flops - Superman Returns, for example.

I hate to point out another mistake, as I think you are one of the better posters on this site, and I agree with a lot of what you are saying, but this isn't really accurate. Most people don't really understand how the movie industry works (and I won't pretend that I do either), and it was reported as a flop initially, but that really wasn't the case at all. It made a big profit, especially overseas (where a LOT of would be flops or marginal movies turn into profit makers) (not to mention DVDs, which companies take into consideration when determining if their product was a flop), and a sequel was actually green-lit for it just a few months after it was released - same director and stars - it will probably start filming some time next year. Although using Hollywood accounting, LOTR, Batman, and Forrest Gump (and ~95% of all movies) can be flops, it just depends if someone is making a percentage of the movie

Superman Returns wasn't exactly a flop in the long run, but it underperformed well below WB's expectations. The sequel was almost not greenlit, but with the film's release on DVD and some merchandising, I guess it eventually turned some profit for them. But you have to remember that the film cost them almost half a billion dollars to make - they had to pay Nicolas Cage $20 million just because he was initially slated to appear in the film contractually under Tim Burton's direction in the late '90s. They even developed artwork for the film: http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=htt...ficial%26sa%3DG

They ended up canceling the project and lost millions and still had to pay everyone severance.

Superman Returns may not have been a "flop" by certain standards, but comparatively - and with their expectations in mind - it underperformed, and Bryan Singer admitted shortly after the film's release that a sequel was still being considered by WB. It ended up getting greenlit, as you said.