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Britney Spears - Blackout


maverik

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Was just reading how Springtsteen's album went from the opening week#1 to now like #18. Virtually stopped selling.

It's a rough time, no doubt.

Added: Before the Radiohead release, there were all these surveys with a very high percentage of fans responding they would choose to pay for the album, most in the $8-14 range. But when it actually was released, over 60% didn't pay anything....

Edited by Turn_It_Up
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Chinese Democracy will most likely debut at number one, but it'll quickly drop, and it won't have an outstanding debut. This is my opinion/forecast. I think most analysts would agree. Five years ago, or even back in 1999, I think it would have sold a million easy in its opening week. But times have changed. Most people who hate Axl and would have bought it out of curiosity will now just download it out of curiosity. I've spoken to many people who have actually said they will never buy the album because they don't want to support Axl. Many people really do hate him, and these are the people who will help hurt sales. Add on top that many people will download regardless, and that the name GN'R isn't as popular amongst young teens as Kanye West (who only sold around 400,000), and you are looking at maybe - maybe - a debut of around 200,000 copies. I'm expecting similar sales to The Smashing Pumpkins' Zeitgeist, which debuted somewhere around 280,000 copies and dropped something like 63% in its second week and quickly fell off the charts. Interest and curiosity die off quick, and thanks to the digital age - downloading, CD copying, etc. - as well as a decade + lapse in releases, GN'R just doesn't have a chance of being a huge seller IMO.

At this point, I think Axl and the label know it, and I think that's part of the reason there have been holdups. They're trying to figure out how to approach this without losing all that money. And obviously, as you can see, they haven't reached a decision yet. But I'm sure that's not the *only* thing holding it back, either...

Right, but, GN'R sold-out many tours from 2001 - present, and have performed in front of over 2 million people. I'm be willing to bet more than half of those people who saw GN'R in 2001, 2002, 2006, 2007 and future tours will buy CD (and probably download it, but buy it nonetheless).

I'm thinking, debut sales will be over 250k, I'm not sure about worldwide sales though. GN'R is still popular in the States, and is a helluva alot more popular in South America, Mexico, Europe, Japan, and Australia. The album won't be a flop.

It's a flop either way, dude. It'll never earn back the $13 million. To turn profit, it would have to surpass $26 million, because of where the money goes and what percentage is taken.

It's the same with films. A movie with a $40 million budget only turns profit if its intake is at least double. That's why so many films that earn back their production costs are still considered flops - Superman Returns, for example.

That's the reason Axl is touring so much: he's using the tours to gain back the money he knows he won't recuperate if he just releases the album now. He's always been very smart at business tactics.

I've tried guessing (and I can't emphasize that word enough) what it would take to break even on Chi Dem.

http://www.mygnrforum.com/index.php?showto...p;#entry1836860

Now I'm not sure how you figure they need to double their budget in terms of revenue in order to turn a profit, unless that budget actually doesn't include all the costs associated with putting out a film or album. If it did then they'd turn a profit if they made just one penny more than that.

Anyways, I'm pleasantly surprised at how many copies the new Eagles album has sold, even more impressive because it's on sale at only one retailer. I think it speaks to what Randy Lahey said - albums like Chi Dem and the new Eagles record cater to music fans and in many respects to an older audience. This isn't your pop mp3 generation bullshit that propels most of the high profile bands out there, for whom music is largely disposable and so why buy anything when you can just download a shitty mp3 instead? But then again Springsteen's album has slipped. As TIU said, there's only so well you can do.

Edited by KBear
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Guest Yanni_16

Remember, that still after all these years, after all the shit he's pulled, Axl Rose still = Jesus in the eyes of many. Remember the Eddie Trunk interview how the server crashed because the too-high volume of calls? Anytime he goes to an event of some sort, cameramen and interviewers everywhere follow him. Yes, he is NOT the media figure he was in the early nineties. But don't underestimate him, he still has star power, ER. A hell of a lot more than that bald goon Billy Corgan and the Smashing Pumpkins, that's for damn sure.

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the eagles sold 711000 copies in the US this week.....it just shows that you can make much money with reunions....just imagine a gnr reunion with 3 or 4 albums ^_^

Most Eagles fans are people in their 50s and 60s (even 70s) who aren't up to date on technology. There's a reason why CDs by artists like Josh Groban, Chris Botti, Paul Potts, The Eagles, The Stones, etc. sell so well - their main demographics are older listeners. And most illegal downloaders are way, way, WAY under that demographic range. That's why a huge release like a Kanye West CD will only sell a couple hundred thousand more copies opening week than something like The Eagles, which didn't have nearly as much promotion, hype, or appeal towards younger listeners. Think of when The Eagles came about and when they hit their peak and you'll see why their new album sold so much.

I work at a music store; I'd say 80% or more of the people who come in there and buy CDs are over 40. Probably about 60 - 70% are over 60. I will rarely sell a CD to someone under the age of 30 more than a handful of times per day. I can't remember the last time a teenager bought a CD, and I'm not joking or being sarcastic or anything. I sell DVDs more often to teenagers, but I almost never - ever - sell CDs to teens. Why? Well, apart from the fact that we're overpriced, most teens also tend to download the tracks/albums they want... few teens religiously buy music anymore, unless they're real fanatics like one guy I know who has a massive CD collection.

Unfortunately for Guns, they came about towards the late '80s and early '90s, which means their fans during that time who would have been in the 14 - 25 age demographic (and most of their fans at the time were in that demographic) are now in their thirties and a good portion of them are probably well up to date on technological advances and downloading over the Internet. I'm not saying everyone on earth is going to download Chinese Democracy, but I think many of the people it will appeal to will. If Guns had existed in the '60s or '70s, I wouldn't say this; but their fans were just young enough at the time of their dominance that many of them are going to know how to go on Limewire, Kazaa or torrent sites and d/l the album. ESPECIALLY if the album leaks (and it will, eventually) a few weeks before its release and because of all the massive hype built up around it, I'm thinking it may very well break pre-release leak download records.

Currently Kanye West's new album set the record for most illegal downloads (in advance of a release), I think the number was something like 1 million illegal downloads before it even came out. Chinese Democracy could probably trump that easily.

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the eagles sold 711000 copies in the US this week.....it just shows that you can make much money with reunions....just imagine a gnr reunion with 3 or 4 albums ^_^

Most Eagles fans are people in their 50s and 60s (even 70s) who aren't up to date on technology. There's a reason why CDs by artists like Josh Groban, Chris Botti, Paul Potts, The Eagles, The Stones, etc. sell so well - their main demographics are older listeners. And most illegal downloaders are way, way, WAY under that demographic range.

The Eagles sales figure is incredibly impressive, but you've hit the nail on the head here with the related audience age and downloading factor. Many GNR fans in their 30's & 40's, so hard to say how it turns out.

My guess is middle of the road--the initial GNR "Returns" album with all the mystery and hype around CD will sell well for this time in the industry, but it will most definitely suffer from downloading.

Hope he puts all his best stuff on the 1st album 'cause if there really is a trilogy it gets much more challenging seeing the follow on albums doing anything close, commercially speaking, to whatever CD brings in...

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