Variations in GN'R's setlists

[SoulMonster]

I decided to do some maths on this. I assigned a value of 1 to each identical song played at the same "place" in two concerts' setlists. So if 'Don't Cry' was played as song no. 5 in both two concerts' sets, then the score would be 1. By summing up all these numbers the maximum theoretical score between two shows would be equal to the number of songs in the set. Six for two shows with identical yet short (only 6 songs) shows, 25 for two identical and long shows (25 songs). I then assigned a value of 0.5 to each song that was played at two shows, although at different "places". So if 'Don't Cry' was played as song no. 5 in one show and song no. 6 in another the score would be 0.5. I then summed these up and added the score form earlier. I then subtracted the absolute value of the difference in no. of songs played between the two shows. With the exact same no. of songs played, this value would be 0. With 5 more (or less) songs played, the value to subtract would be 5. In summary: I first calculate scores for how many of the same songs are played (with extra score if played at the same "place" in the set) and subtract the difference in length of song list.

I then did this for every two consecutive shows in GN'R career where the setlists are known.

Some comments: During a given tour the differences from one show to the next may be small, but when you compare the first and last shows the difference may by substantial as a result of accumulation of small changes. On the other hand, the net result from start of a tour to the end may be zero (i.e. if a few shows are exchanged back and forth).

I then calculated the average score for each tour in GN'R history to see how much variation in setlists took place during these tours:

-1.83: Club dates (1986- March 1987) [Huge variations in setlists here as GN'R played both short and longer sets and tested out new songs].

2.33: Marquee shows in UK (June 1986) [Much less variation here, but also a very small sampling no. with only three gigs].

6.67: Opening for the Cult [August 1987-September 1987) [Quite similar gigs, presumably because GN'R opened with a short set and had few songs to choose from].

4.22: European tour in 1987 [Quite similar again, but a little less].

5.00: North American tour in 1987 [Like the Euro tour].

2.80: Opening for Motley Crue in 1987 [short sets but more variation since AFD had been released].

5.25: Opening for Alice Cooper in 1987 [Less variation again].

-0.19: North American tour in 1987- March 1988 [Very varied setlists as GN'R played very different shows].

0.80: Opening for Iron Maiden in 1988 [surprisingly varied sets for an opener slot].

1.95: Opening for Aerosmith in 1988.

1.56: Japan/Australia/New Zealand tour in late 1988.

2.00: Opening for Rolling Stones in 1989.

1.12: UYI tour North American first leg, to August 1991 [Quite varied sets, but not much more than those in 1988].

3.20: UYI tour European leg, to September 1991.

2.43: UYI tour North American second leg, to February 1992.

3.21: UYI tour Japan/Europe to July 1992.

2.20: UYI tour North American third leg in 1992.

3.29: UYI tour South American/Japan/Australia leg, 1992/1993.

3.47: The Skin N' Bones tour, North American leg in 1993.

6.08: The Skin N' Bones tour, (mostly) European leg [The setlists get less and less varied as the touring goes on].

8.25: The four shows in 2001.

9.67: 2002 festival shows.

10.94: 2002 North American tour [Highly similar sets, both in length and content].

8.62: 2006 North American dates.

4.12: 2006 European dates.

8.37: 2006 North American second tour.

13.17: 2007 Japan/Australia/New Zealand tour.

0.50: Asian dates in 2009 [Highly varied sets].

7.40: 2010 North American tour.

8.40: 2010 South American tour.

11.63: 2010 European tour [w/ Australia].

8.10: 2011 South American tour.

14.67: 2011 North American tour.

8.53: 2012 UCAP tour.

12.06: 2012 European tour.

Setlist variations in individual years:

1985: -0.50

1986: -2.85

1987: 3.54

1988: 1.33

1989: 2.00

1991: 1.27

1992: 2.51

1993: 4.90

2001: 8.25

2002: 10.23

2006: 5.96

2007: 10.20

2009: 0.50

2010: 9.55

2011: 13.03

2012: 11.00

A few quick comments: There is no doubt the shows have become more similar since 1993. But we also saw a trend in this direction during the later stages of the 1993 tours. It is also important to realize that the longer the sets, the harder it is to make them very different from each other because there are fewer unplayed songs to play (two random 80 song sets would have a much higher "similarity score" than two random 6 song sets). In other words: there is a clear and negative correlation between set length and set variation which at least partly explains why the similarity scores have increased so much since 1993.

Edited October 12, 2012 by SoulMonster

[bionic56]

Cool. Can you let me know how many times Axl has had a shit in the last year please ??

[RNRS]

The difference is back then the band actually played what people wanted to hear.

[Young_Gun]

Cool. Can you let me know how many times Axl has had a shit in the last year please ??

LOLLLLLLLL!!!!!

[Randalemann]

[SoulMonster]

Cool. Can you let me know how many times Axl has had a shit in the last year please ??

Sorry, haven't got the data, but I might be able to predict how long before you'll get suspended again if you keep up the childish posts

[seely]

Some people have too much time on their hands.

[SoulMonster]

Some people have too much time on their hands.

I already had the setlists in Excel, it took me 30 minutes to come up with the formulas and type it all up

[bionic56]

Cool. Can you let me know how many times Axl has had a shit in the last year please ??

Sorry, haven't got the data, but I might be able to predict how long before you'll get suspended again if you keep up the childish posts

Ahhhhhhh Soul Monster, i thought you knew everything, including toilet habbits.

[SoulMonster]

Cool. Can you let me know how many times Axl has had a shit in the last year please ??

Sorry, haven't got the data, but I might be able to predict how long before you'll get suspended again if you keep up the childish posts

Ahhhhhhh Soul Monster, i thought you knew everything, including toilet habbits.

Toilet hobbits?

[bionic56]

Cool. Can you let me know how many times Axl has had a shit in the last year please ??

Sorry, haven't got the data, but I might be able to predict how long before you'll get suspended again if you keep up the childish posts

Ahhhhhhh Soul Monster, i thought you knew everything, including toilet habbits.

Toilet hobbits?

Clever man like you, should be able to read. How can we believe your facts if you can't read Sir ?

[TeeJay410]

[HisRoyalSweetness]

i've never felt more confident in my opinions of you.

[SoulMonster]

i've never felt more confident in my opinions of you.

Yes, there is no denying I am a hard-working GN'R nerd willing to go the extra mile to bring some facts into heated discussions.

[SoulMonster]

Clever man like you, should be able to read. How can we believe your facts if you can't read Sir ?

Most people will believe my "facts" because they are either intelligent enough to know I wouldn't make stuff up when it can easily be checked, or because they are intelligent enough to actually check for themselves. Are you in one of these two groups?

[SoulMonster]

the bitter ex-fans are hilarious. they cry and cry about wanting proof for any statement about gnr's history, but are also the first to mock anyone who puts in the time to present data to support their position.

Could it be they are bitter at me and afraid of facts?

[bionic56]

Clever man like you, should be able to read. How can we believe your facts if you can't read Sir ?

Most people will believe my "facts" because they are either intelligent enough to know I wouldn't make stuff up when it can easily be checked, or because they are intelligent enough to actually check for themselves. Are you in one of these two groups?

Mr SoulMonster i'm not in any group, I'm me , i do not follow like a sheep Thankyou Sir. You are god i believe in you with all my heart

the bitter ex-fans are hilarious. they cry and cry about wanting proof for any statement about gnr's history, but are also the first to mock anyone who puts in the time to present data to support their position.

What you on MSL ??? Give me some please. Have you not a MAJOR wrestling event to get to you are also very good at putting ? FACTUAL ? guns n' roses material together to feed your ego. Good day sir.

Edited October 12, 2012 by bionic56

[SoulMonster]

Clever man like you, should be able to read. How can we believe your facts if you can't read Sir ?

Most people will believe my "facts" because they are either intelligent enough to know I wouldn't make stuff up when it can easily be checked, or because they are intelligent enough to actually check for themselves. Are you in one of these two groups?

Mr SoulMonster i'm not in any group, I'm me , i do not follow like a sheep Thankyou Sir.

Haha, brilliant

And just for the sake of it: The "similarity score" between the first "nuGN'R" show (January 1, 2001) and the latest (July 22, 2012) is -8.00. VERY different setlists. So it might be true that there isn't as much difference between consecutive gigs these days, at least not compared to early days and in the experimental start of the UYI tour, but the small changes that occur all the time accumulates to great differences over a larger scale. In other words, GN'R hasn't "been playing the same setlist for 10 years", or whatever some people claim, but at the same time each tour's setlists are more similar now than before.

Does it really matter when the audiences are treated to almost 3 hours of a great combination of the best from the whole era of GN'R? No, not really.

[HisRoyalSweetness]

i just think it's dumb and pointless that people waste time giving a shit about nugnr's set list. it's even more dumb and pointless that you felt the need to set the facts straight. congrats. enjoy the glory, kid. you earned it. you're the mars rover of planet mygnr.

[SoulMonster]

i just think it's dumb and pointless that people waste time giving a shit about nugnr's set list. it's even more dumb and pointless that you felt the need to set the facts straight. congrats. enjoy the glory, kid. you earned it. you're the mars rover of planet mygnr.

And I think it is dumb and pointless wasting time at a forum for a band you're not a fan of to create retarded threads like these: "The Axl Rose sex tape", "if team brasil starting selling axl's sperm, would you buy some to impregnate yourself / spouse?", "do you think axl likes tacos?" and "do you think teddy zig zag ever fucked a person with a mental handicap?". I guess it takes all kinds, unfortunately.

[ironmt]

i just think it's dumb and pointless that people waste time giving a shit about nugnr's set list. it's even more dumb and pointless that you felt the need to set the facts straight. congrats. enjoy the glory, kid. you earned it. you're the mars rover of planet mygnr.

And I think it is dumb and pointless wasting time at a forum for a band you're not a fan of to create retarded threads like these: "The Axl Rose sex tape", "if team brasil starting selling axl's sperm, would you buy some to impregnate yourself / spouse?", "do you think axl likes tacos?" and "do you think teddy zig zag ever fucked a person with a mental handicap?". I guess it takes all kinds, unfortunately.

LOL. Hilarious topics.

[stumbleine]

interesting post,Soul Monster.

I think Axl deserves criticism for being boring and stale

but it's good to know the details.

[bionic56]

What you on MSL ??? Give me some please. Have you not a MAJOR wrestling event to get to you are also very good at putting ? FACTUAL ? guns n' roses material together to feed your ego. Good day sir.

Pay attention class. When wrong, make sure to change the subject to either wrestling or my weight.

Fuck No MSL anyone discussing your weight is a dick, that's offensive !!! And i'm not pissing about on that. I'm only playing, god SoulMonster makes me laugh.

[SoulMonster]

More trivia:

The highest similarity scores between consecutive shows ever took place on December 17, 21 and 27, 2011 (Pacific Coliseum, Vancouver, The Forum, Los Angeles and Comerica Theatre, Phoenix, respectively). The two scores between these three dates were both 25.

[bbbba]

I decided to do some maths on this. I assigned a value of 1 to each identical song played at the same "place" in two concerts. So if 'Don't Cry' was played as song no. 5 in two concerts, then the score would be 1. I assigned a value of 0.5 to each song that was played at two shows, although at different "places". So if 'Don't Cry' was played as song no. 5 in one show and song no. 6 in another the score would be 0.5. I summed this up and subtracted the absolute value of the difference in no. of songs played between the two shows. With the exact same no. of songs played, this value would be 0. With 5 more songs played, the value to subtract would be 5. In other words, I first calculate scores for how many of the same songs are played (with extra score if played at the same "place") and subtract the difference in length of song list. This would mean that if a 20 long set list was identical between two shows, the score would be 20, whereas a 6 long set list that was played twice, would get a score of 6.

I then did this for every two consecutive shows in GN'R career where the setlists are known.

Some comments: During a given tour the differences from one show to the next may be small, but when you compare the first and last shows the difference may by substantial as a result of accumulation of small changes. On the other hand, the net result from start of a tour to the end may be zero (i.e. if a few shows are exchanged back and forth).

I then calculated the average score for each tour in GN'R history to see how much variation in setlists took place during these tours:

-1.83: Club dates (1986- March 1987) [Huge variations in setlists here as GN'R played both short and longer sets and tested out new songs].

2.33: Marquee shows in UK (June 1986) [Much less variation here, but also a very small sampling no. with only three gigs].

6.67: Opening for the Cult [August 1987-September 1987) [Quite similar gigs, presumably because GN'R opened with a short set and had few songs to choose from].

4.22: European tour in 1987 [Quite similar again, but a little less].

5.00: North American tour in 1987 [Like the Euro tour].

2.80: Opening for Motley Crue in 1987 [short sets but more variation since AFD had been released].

5.25: Opening for Alice Cooper in 1987 [Less variation again].

-0.19: North American tour in 1987- March 1988 [Very varied setlists as GN'R played very different shows].

0.80: Opening for Iron Maiden in 1988 [surprisingly varied sets for an opener slot].

1.95: Opening for Aerosmith in 1988.

1.56: Japan/Australia/New Zealand tour in late 1988.

2.00: Opening for Rolling Stones in 1989.

1.12: UYI tour North American first leg, to August 1991 [Quite varied sets, but not much more than those in 1988].

3.20: UYI tour European leg, to September 1991.

2.43: UYI tour North American second leg, to February 1992.

3.21: UYI tour Japan/Europe to July 1992.

2.20: UYI tour North American third leg in 1992.

3.29: UYI tour South American/Japan/Australia leg, 1992/1993.

3.47: The Skin N' Bones tour, North American leg in 1993.

6.08: The Skin N' Bones tour, (mostly) European leg [The setlists get less and less varied as the touring goes on].

8.25: The four shows in 2001.

9.67: 2002 festival shows.

10.94: 2002 North American tour [Highly similar sets, both in length and content].

8.62: 2006 North American dates.

4.12: 2006 European dates.

8.37: 2006 North American second tour.

13.17: 2007 Japan/Australia/New Zealand tour.

0.50: Asian dates in 2009 [Highly varied sets].

7.40: 2010 North American tour.

8.40: 2010 South American tour.

11.63: 2010 European tour [w/ Australia].

8.10: 2011 South American tour.

14.67: 2011 North American tour.

8.53: 2012 UCAP tour.

12.06: 2012 European tour.

Setlist variations in individual years:

1985: -0.50

1986: -2.85

1987: 3.54

1988: 1.33

1989: 2.00

1991: 1.27

1992: 2.51

1993: 4.90

2001: 8.25

2002: 10.23

2006: 5.96

2007: 10.20

2009: 0.50

2010: 9.55

2011: 13.03

2012: 11.00

A few quick comments: There is no doubt the shows have become more similar since 1993. But we also saw a trend in this direction during the later stages of the 1993 tours. It is also important to realize that the longer the sets, the harder it is to make them very different from each other. In other words: there is a clear and negative correlation between set length and set variation.

Unfortunately, although any effort is laudable, this doesn't calculate anything of value and your conclusion of negative correlation is unfounded because you have not considered the likelihood of any track being played as a random variable over time. A probabilistic approach is required.