Eric Cantor Primaried

[downzy]

Most might chalk this up as "who gives a shit," but a massive shake-up occurred yesterday in American politics as the Republican House Majority Leader in Congress lost his primary bid for Virginia's Seventh Congressional district. For those who don't follow American politics, all federal Senators and House members must win a primary before representing their party in the general election (which will take place in November).

Eric Cantor was widely expect to be the next Speaker of the House once John Boehner's time was up. The position of Speaker is the third-in-line to the Presidency, with only the Vice-President is higher up on the food chain were something to happen to the President. Hence Cantor's loss in yesterday's Virginia primary contest is pretty shocking and almost unprecedented.

He lost to a "Tea Party" candidate, Dave Brat, who ran on a platform of anti-immigration. Cantor was one of the few Republicans in the House who supported immigration reform it looks like that might have cost him his job.

The irony of Cantor losing to a "Tea Party" candidate is that Cantor helped fume the flames of the Tea Party movement back in 2009. Moreover, other than his position on immigration, he is rather hard-right individual with respect to most other policy matters. He has a 100 percent rating from both the NRA and the Chamber of Commerce. He was instrumental in developing and implementing the GOP's obstructionist strategy during Obama's first term (that has carried over to his second term).

For those who detest not only the Tea Party but also the politicians that embraced and attempted to co-opt the movement, this loss is somewhat bitter-sweet. On the one hand, it's rather amusing that the terrible forces this guy helped to foster came back to bite him in the ass is poetic. On the other, Cantor's loss yesterday will likely push the Republican party even further right, helping to polarize both federal and state elective bodies.

It should also be noted that only 12 percent of Cantor's district came out to vote in the primary yesterday. That means that it only took 6.1 percent of the general public to win the primary. This is how fringe and fanatical candidates show up come the general. With the exception of Ted Cruz from Texas (who renounced his Canadian citizenship yesterday - he's your problem now America) and Mike Lee from Utah, fanatics generally don't win general elections. But it has the adverse effect of pushing the party platform towards the party's more fringe elements.

Edited June 11, 2014 by downzy

[ShadowOfTheWave]

The GOP was pushing for immigration reform so their name could be associated with it in the 2016 election. It was a pathetic attempt to win Latino voters, by selling out their own principles. I'm glad the Tea Party shut it down. Now other GOP politicians won't dare embrace the nonsense.

[ZoSoRose]

Crack this one under, "who gives a shit!"

Do you guys think Slash is better than Axl?

[ShadowOfTheWave]

I think Slash is a more prolific musician. I think Axl is a better person.

[downzy]

The GOP was pushing for immigration reform so their name could be associated with it in the 2016 election. It was a pathetic attempt to win Latino voters, by selling out their own principles. I'm glad the Tea Party shut it down. Now other GOP politicians won't dare embrace the nonsense.

Regardless of whether you're supportive or against immigration reform, you have to acknowledge the political realities surrounding the issue. If the GOP doesn't do something on the issue, they'll never win enough votes from Latinos. Besides the youth vote, it's the a major reason why Obama won the last election.

[ShadowOfTheWave]

The GOP was pushing for immigration reform so their name could be associated with it in the 2016 election. It was a pathetic attempt to win Latino voters, by selling out their own principles. I'm glad the Tea Party shut it down. Now other GOP politicians won't dare embrace the nonsense.

Regardless of whether you're supportive or against immigration reform, you have to acknowledge the political realities surrounding the issue. If the GOP doesn't do something on the issue, they'll never win enough votes from Latinos. Besides the youth vote, it's the a major reason why Obama won the last election.

True, but it's been calculated that if Romney had won Latinos 80-20% he still would have lost most of the swing states. Even if immigration reform passed it will likely be a huge debate in the next GOP primary which will hurt the party's image even more with them. Also, McCain supported amnesty and was destroyed by Obama with Latinos.

[downzy]

You don't need to win all the swing states to become President. Had Romney won 80 percent of the Latino vote in Florida and Virginia the election would have been much closer, and possibly his. Ohio has around 170k eligible Latino voters. Obama only won the state by 160k votes.

Moreover, there are over 5.5 million registered Latino voters in California. Obama won that state by 3 million votes. A 50 percent swing of such a large voting block would have had dramatic consequences in even non-swing states.

Regardless of the elections of 2008 and 2012, the latino voting block going forward can't be ignored unless a party doesn't care about winning the White House. Demographics are not in the GOP's favour if current trends continue. It will continue to be a regional party unless it can broaden its base or find a new coalition. The social-conservative evangelical faction mixed with fiscal conservative pro-business groups is no longer a big enough coalition to challenge for the Presidency. And until the GOP can win back the White House, they'll never pass a Republican agenda.

Besides Presidential elections, the Tea Party has already cost the GOP the Senate twice now, by nominating candidates the general electorate find distasteful. The primary process is turning the Republican party sharply right while the rest of the country gets more moderate (or liberal) and less white. The only thing that save the GOP in the House in 2012 was gerrymandering, considering Congressional Democrats received 6 million more votes nationally than their Republican counterparts. Guys like Cantor losing is not a good sign for a party that must start operating in the 21st century.

[bran]

what is kind of crazy about all this is cantor was hardly what i call a moderate to begin with....

[downzy]

what is kind of crazy about all this is cantor was hardly what i call a moderate to begin with....

That is what I find so amazing in all of this. Here you have a rather conservative politician being flanked on his right when few thought there was anymore room on the right.

Moreover, you have Republican state assemblies gerrymandering districts to ensure a Republican win, but now the districts are so uncompetitive come the general election that it's now the primary that matters. If the GOP wants to roll back its more fanatical support, it might want to reconsider the geography of many congressional districts. It's enabling the fringe to dictate Republican policy, which is undermining overall support the party receives from the general electorate. I knew it was bad for establishment/moderate Republicans. But until yesterday, I had no idea it was that bad.

[Ace Nova]

If anything, this should have been a wake up call to both sides.

[downzy]

If anything, this should have been a wake up call to both sides.

How so?

[Ace Nova]

If anything, this should have been a wake up call to both sides.

How so?

In a number of ways. For one, candidates should realize that if they neglect their local districts, etc, that there could be a backlash, lack of support, small turnout (of their supporters) or a combination...which is pretty much what happened here. And secondly, they shouldn't underestimate how an extreme party can hit all the right buttons and (essentially) get the majority of their supporters to vote, causing a huge upset.

Some polls had Cantor leading by double-digit numbers for pretty much the entire campaign. It's safe to assume he didn't pay nearly as much attention (as he should have) to the local voters and severely underesitimated the capability of the Tea Party (or their voters) to turn out and vote in large numbers. (By their standards).

[downzy]

If anything, this should have been a wake up call to both sides.

How so?

In a number of ways. For one, candidates should realize that if they neglect their local districts, etc, that there could be a backlash, lack of support, small turnout (of their supporters) or a combination...which is pretty much what happened here. And secondly, they shouldn't underestimate how an extreme party can hit all the right buttons and (essentially) get the majority of their supporters to vote, causing a huge upset.

Some polls had Cantor leading by double-digit numbers for pretty much the entire campaign. It's safe to assume he didn't pay nearly as much attention (as he should have) to the local voters and severely underesitimated the capability of the Tea Party (or their voters) to turn out and vote in large numbers. (By their standards).

I think that's more of a lesson for Republican candidates. There is no equivalent Tea Party on the left that Democrats have to worry about. It's not often that established Democrats get primaried from the left.

And keep in mind, only 12 percent of the district voted in the primary. I'm not sure if it was so much Cantor neglecting his district as it was a fervent minority goaded with issues like immigration. Had Cantor not appeared open to immigration reform we would likely have seen a different outcome. When the Congressmen for your district is the House Majority leader, that usually comes with a lot of benefits to your district. Voting out that Congressman in a primary is not a good move for your district. Most reasonable individuals know this, except most people - whether reasonable or not - decided to stay home in yesterday's primary because they had better things to do.

There's also some speculation that because it was an open primary you had Democrats voting for Brat so come the general election the Democratic candidate will have a better shot (though 7th in Virginia is solidly Republican, not sure any Democrat would win regardless of who they were facing).

I think the wake up call is to politicians who create cozy districts to help their chances of re-election. Safe districts combined with a radical and intense minority will produce the results we saw yesterday.