Technological progress and a guaranteed basic income

[downzy]

Read this article today on the eventual rise of self-driving trucks and how it will affect the U.S. economy:

http://qz.com/417014/self-driving-trucks-are-going-to-hit-the-us-economy-like-a-human-driven-truck/

Truck and truck-related jobs account for millions of good paying jobs; jobs that will no longer exist in fifteen to twenty years. As the article points out, this will decimate many small towns in the U.S., much in the same way that the creation of the interstate-highway system did 60 years ago.

As more and more jobs get replaced by machines, robots, and software, will a guaranteed basic income be necessary to prevent an even larger portion of developed society from utter economic ruin? Has capitalism run its course now that human labour is becoming less and less necessary? Can we really expect 70 percent of the population to reach a certain level of higher education that would help protect them from technological and economic changes? And what happens when even having a post-secondary degree in fields that have been previously considered safe from technological innovation such as law, medicine, and accounting?

Is it just a matter of changing people's perceptions to the coming disconnect between capitalism and technological progress?

[Słash]

The thinking should be changed, the way people look and understand things should be changed

[SunnyDRE]

I'd be surprised if happened that soon for two reasons. One, truck drivers have the most powerful union in the US and two, if you look at the classified section of any newspaper or freebie rag, you mainly see the need for two jobs - truck drivers (people with CDL's) and healthcare.

[downzy]

I'd be surprised if happened that soon for two reasons. One, truck drivers have the most powerful union in the US and two, if you look at the classified section of any newspaper or freebie rag, you mainly see the need for two jobs - truck drivers (people with CDL's) and healthcare.

Except, as the article points out, it can happen overnight. The only thing really holding all of this back are legal regulations. Remove those and the technology exists to ship via truck most products across the country without the driver doing much, if anything at all. If we're only five to seven years out from having truly autonomous mobile shipping fleets driven by software and computers, unions won't be able to do dick about it. Unions are only relevant when capital needs human input. There is no bargaining leverage if human beings are needed at all.

[magisme]

This is the biggest employment and income issue we face. It's jobs sent overseas on steroids. Unfortunately, like with most things, it'll probably have to come to a crisis before we do anything about it, and you never know what comes after a crisis.

[AxlisOld]

And as we know, legal regulations and legislation are never affected by unions or lobbyists.

[downzy]

And as we know, legal regulations and legislation are never affected by unions or lobbyists.

Maybe if this was 1976. Unions hold very little lobbying power relative to corporate lobbying.

[AxlisOld]

I'm not saying we're at Hoffa levels of Union power, but just the word "union" sways a lot of people. A lot of people that vote.

[downzy]

I'm not saying we're at Hoffa levels of Union power, but just the word "union" sways a lot of people. A lot of people that vote.

If that were the case right-to-work laws wouldn't be sweeping the nation.

However, it will be interesting to see how all of this will play out. My guess is that many good ol' boys who drive a truck likely vote Republican. We'll see how strong their allegiances lie when it comes time to support a candidate who supports legislation that will effectively end their careers.

[AxlisOld]

The more staunch union supporters tend to vote Democrat from what I've seen.

[wasted]

Those in power will reap the benefits but they will have to re-distribute money to keep the masses from rioting.

Technology provides cheaper food and entertainment, clothes, housing. So if your life is free you might not need a job?

It might not be better life eating 30 cent burritos from a vending machine but it might work economically.

Self driving trucks still need people to maintain them. I means it going to developing jobs developing them as well? Ambulances and hospitals are going get a lot self driving truck related decapitations.

[highvoltage]

As more and more jobs get replaced by machines, robots, and software, will a guaranteed basic income be necessary to prevent an even larger portion of developed society from utter economic ruin? Has capitalism run its course now that human labour is becoming less and less necessary? Can we really expect 70 percent of the population to reach a certain level of higher education that would help protect them from technological and economic changes? And what happens when even having a post-secondary degree in fields that have been previously considered safe from technological innovation such as law, medicine, and accounting?

Is it just a matter of changing people's perceptions to the coming disconnect between capitalism and technological progress?

It's a complicated debate and there's no simple answer. Truck drivers are just one of a countless number of affected industries - in fact, there are very few industries that will be insulated from the effects of robots and automation.

Take lawyers, accountants, even chefs...! These are just a few examples of jobs you wouldn't expect that machines could perform - except all three have been identified as suitable professions to target for automation sooner rather than later.

Many people think this will be off-set by the stimulation of highly-skilled industries, but I think this seems unlikely. Without being dramatic, the fabric of our society just isn't ready for the kind of job displacement that will take place in the decades to come. As you say, it's unrealistic to expect that the wider population will suddenly be able to transition into highly-skilled industries.

There is no doubt that we will need some kind of universal protection for low-skilled workers in the future; a basic income may just be the way to do it. To the people that think it's a stupid idea - what better alternatives do you suggest? It's a cliche, but capitalism is truly not working out in the long run - we need an economic system that's viable in an age where humans performing physical and mental labour no longer makes economic sense. It's a complete game-changer.

[wasted]

To be honest driving a truck is basically being on the dole anyway. Not to talk down truck drivers but most people aren't doing much. I've washed dishes in a restaurant. If the they fixed the machine I was hardly needed. If you gave me a few hundred and not have to do that I'd be happy. Not mourning the loss of that agonising shit.

You could say people will feel worthless but I'm not sure I felt worth anything in the warehouse. More like a forgotten cog in a virtuality game.

I'm surprised supermarkets are still open you can order it all online or go to Burger King. Shops must be destroyed.

[arnold layne]

To be honest driving a truck is basically being on the dole anyway. Not to talk down truck drivers but most people aren't doing much. I've washed dishes in a restaurant. If the they fixed the machine I was hardly needed. If you gave me a few hundred and not have to do that I'd be happy. Not mourning the loss of that agonising shit.

You could say people will feel worthless but I'm not sure I felt worth anything in the warehouse. More like a forgotten cog in a virtuality game.

I'm surprised supermarkets are still open you can order it all online or go to Burger King. Shops must be destroyed.

It is funny you say that because restaurants make up like 75% of Oklahoma City's economy.

We have to accept the fact that service jobs make up this country. It is retarded to send everyone off to college. There is no reason to believe this fixes the problem.

I strive for happiness and that is difficult in such an automated world.

[Dazey]

Thankfully my job involves designing automation and control systems so hopefully this insulates me to an extent.

[wasted]

To be honest driving a truck is basically being on the dole anyway. Not to talk down truck drivers but most people aren't doing much. I've washed dishes in a restaurant. If the they fixed the machine I was hardly needed. If you gave me a few hundred and not have to do that I'd be happy. Not mourning the loss of that agonising shit.

You could say people will feel worthless but I'm not sure I felt worth anything in the warehouse. More like a forgotten cog in a virtuality game.

I'm surprised supermarkets are still open you can order it all online or go to Burger King. Shops must be destroyed.

It is funny you say that because restaurants make up like 75% of Oklahoma City's economy.

We have to accept the fact that service jobs make up this country. It is retarded to send everyone off to college. There is no reason to believe this fixes the problem.

I strive for happiness and that is difficult in such an automated world.

But say if a machine took your job and they gave you free accommodation and spending money?

That's the scenario.

I guess college is just a way to civilise or control people. Learn how to appreciate the arts or history. I mean still going to need IT people.

I'm not saying it's better but is there any difference from washing dishes for 10 hours a day or watching TV or video games or gym for 10 hours?

We've just been trained to think work is happiness. Before I worked as a dishwasher I was on the dole for the summer. As a washer I got 600 a month. On the dole I got rent paid and 50 a week. Definitely less but the bonus was I didn't have to scrub cheese of plates for 10 hours. I think it's good to be out and about in a job.

But say if 75% of people were just given money to live we'd all just play dominos all day and drink pitches of rum like pirates. Utopia!

Of course if you're smart you get a job and a higher quality of life. Maybe there still would restaurants with chefs making stuff for the elite. But we the general would just press a button and get our meal. Take some meds and play Dish Washer virtual reality game. You want to be trucker by a hat and steal a truck in GTA and make some deliveries. Make your own sandwich 2 week breaks living a real life of a diner worker. Oh man I pulled a real pint of beer. Can't wait to go back next year!

[AxlisOld]

I fucking love my job. I don't tolerate it, I enjoy it.

[wasted]

What do you do?

I don't think any human activity would be wiped out. They just become more like hobbies. Like those guys that dress up as knights and go out and reenact battles from medieval times.

Edited June 11, 2015 by wasted

[axlfan88]

Ted Kaczynski nailed it : "The Industrial Revolution and its consequences have been a disaster for the human race."

Industrial Society and Its Future: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ted_Kaczynski#Industrial_Society_and_Its_Future

Other great reads about the industrial disaster :

Günther Anders, The Obsolescence of Humankind

Lewis Mumford, The Myth of the machine

Edited June 11, 2015 by axlfan88

[wasted]

I think most people know that we can't be 100% moral. Everything we do leads to corruption. Most people will settle for easy goals. I guess in the developed world people are concerned about prestige and social standing.

Freedom is a pretty vague term. What ever the system you're going have to do stuff you don't want to. That people learn how to behave isn't a bad thing. And people do like to escape before they go back to their 10 hour shift.

But maybe he's right that if there's no natural flux for people to try to get better or change their lives...but these kind of choices are built on immoral bombing of some middle eastern country with no military. So all this supposed freedom is kind of tarnished.

We just have to watch out for becoming the slaves of plutocracy. But we probably all are anyway already.

I vote for rum and dominos. Others might prefer to scrub the rum stains off the dominos.

[downzy]

Thankfully my job involves designing automation and control systems so hopefully this insulates me to an extent.

Surprise, surprise... Dazey turns out to the be the problem

[tinyrobot]

Robots are cool.

More POWER to the robots!

[Len Cnut]

I'd be surprised if happened that soon for two reasons. One, truck drivers have the most powerful union in the US and two, if you look at the classified section of any newspaper or freebie rag, you mainly see the need for two jobs - truck drivers (people with CDL's) and healthcare.

The existence a strong union is probably more reason why it will happen, nobody likes it when a bunch of shit shovellers have a degree of power.

[wasted]

I like banking online and using ATMs, ordering groceries online, ordering pizza by text, ordering music or games online.

But it is kind of killing City centres of cities. There's a mall then it's just boarded up shops and chain stores.

It's like we are getting ready for zombie invasion to live underground after they drop the bomb.

[AxlisOld]

What do you do?

I don't think any human activity would be wiped out. They just become more like hobbies. Like those guys that dress up as knights and go out and reenact battles from medieval times.

I work for an irrigation district as a field surveyor/lab rat. Though I've brought up to my boss that we should buy a GPS drone with a camera to look at canals for us.