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The US Politics/Elections Thread


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10 minutes ago, Ace Nova said:

Everyone, including democrats, don't have issues going out grocery shopping, going to work, dining, various events...even sending their kids to school....but all of a sudden they can't wear a mask and social distance while waiting in line to vote?

You have to go to a grocery store to buy food (I've tried online ordering; it's terrible).

Nobody who is concerned about the virus wants to work from the office.  They do so only because they are required to by their employer.

No one who is concerned about covid-19 is dinning in.  

Large-scale events (save for Trump rallies) aren't happening.

Everyone wants to send their kids to school, but most are either keeping their kids at home out of concern, don't have any choice or alternatives, or are telling themselves it's okay because kids are less likely to face serious consequences if infected.  

Why wait in line when you don't have to?  There is a perfectly viable form of voting by mail.  Why not take that option if you are at all concerned about the safety of yourself and loved ones?  Seems dumb to vote in person if I'm being honest.  

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1 minute ago, Dazey said:

What are the odds of Republicans enforcing them? 

Smh.  Voting areas have local police/security at every location.  You’re not even allowed within a certain distance of the location unless you’re there to vote.  The areas are blocked off.  And yes, every voting station has both Democratic and Republican representatives monitoring them. 

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Just now, Ace Nova said:

Smh.  Voting areas have local police/security at every location.  You’re not even allowed within a certain distance of the location unless you’re there to vote.  The areas are blocked off.  And yes, every voting station has both Democratic and Republican representatives monitoring them. 

I’m maybe exaggerating but what is actually going to happen if a bunch of militia yahoos turn up at a polling station in Florida?

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12 minutes ago, Ace Nova said:

Hopefully it will make just as much sense when the election is contested well into 2021.

I think the odds of that happening is next to none.  Vote certification is required by December 23rd for all states.  Congress will meet on January 6th, 2021 to certify the results.  The Supreme Court ended recounts in the 2000 election because they were going to challenge these constitutionally designated guidelines.  If Biden is certified the winner in say Michigan but Trump wants a recount, he will have until the certification date to get it done.  If he runs out of time, well, the Supreme Court has already stated too bad.  And candidates can only ask for a recount if the vote total differential is within a certain percentage (usually below 1 percent, but I believe it varies by state).

The only path Trump would have at that point is to beg Republican controlled states that he lost (say Florida) to send a separate set of electors than what is required by the certified vote count.  But even there Trump is in trouble because the Supreme Court ruled this year that states and electors are bound to abide by the vote totals; they can't override what the vote says and send electors who will vote for the losing candidate.

Trump will make a lot of noise but if Biden is winning and recounts fail to produce a different result, there really isn't anything he can do about it (outside of trying to get the military involved, but at that point we're talking about full-fledged civil war).  

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1 minute ago, Dazey said:

I’m maybe exaggerating but what is actually going to happen if a bunch of militia yahoos turn up at a polling station in Florida?

They’ll be turned away.  And if they don’t leave law enforcement will force them to leave or they’ll likely be arrested.    And those types wouldn’t do that.   It goes against what they believe in.  Contrary to popular belief most of those militias believe in the Constitution.

You have a better chance of Antifa types showing up than you would armed militias.  

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Just now, Ace Nova said:

They’ll be turned away.  And if they don’t leave law enforcement will force them to leave or they’ll likely be arrested.    And those types wouldn’t do that.   It goes against what they believe in.  Contrary to popular belief most of those militias believe in the Constitution.

You have a better chance of Antifa types showing up than you would armed militias.  

Well if they believe in the constitution I guess they’ll be voting for the Democrats eh? :lol: 

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Its really difficult to assess if recent events will be isolated incidents or not. But in my view they are a continuing escalation of some very negative things. My gut - yes just my gut - senses that we are seeing an escalation that could climax during the election night. (again, thats not my claim its just a scary thought I live with, that is certainly a possibility).

I know theres busses that organizations and place of worship organize to help get less mobile people and those requiring assistance to the polls. Im mean, its possible to imagine those busses being targeted while outside of the voting zone.

I dunno. Sucks to have to try and makes sense of todays USA.

 

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9 minutes ago, SoulMonster said:

I hear Trump is travelling to Kenosha to try to calm the waters and bring people together.

Can't think of a better person to do it...

:facepalm:

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3 hours ago, SoulMonster said:

He's got the right non-condemning attitude, remember, "good guys on both sides"? ;)

Remember right after he said that he specifically named Nazis and white supremacists and condemned them?  Nah because the media always cuts that part out.  

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18 minutes ago, Swampfox said:

Right at the two minute mark he condemns them.  

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unite_the_Right_rally

There were no other “fine people” who organized or attended the protest.

They were all white supremacists and alt-right fascists. 

That’s the point Trump and yourself seem to be missing. 

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Not sure if this is true because I didn't hear it. CNN repeated it.

They said that Trump said black people have no problems with white police officers. Needless to say, I just cracked up when I heard this.

I swear Trump is getting dementia. And Biden. We really need help this year.

4 more months until the end of the year. God! i can't wait.

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Morgan predicting a Trump victory (Morgan hates Trump now incidentally, since he decided to go woke in spring this year), as is by the sounds of it Michael Moore quoted therein - polling data presented supporting prediction,

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8685357/PIERS-MORGAN-Democrats-heading-election-disaster-dont-stand-violence.html

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1 minute ago, DieselDaisy said:

Morgan predicting a Trump victory (Morgan hates Trump now incidentally, since he decided to go woke in spring this year), as is by the sounds of it Michael Moore quoted therein - polling data presented supporting prediction,

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8685357/PIERS-MORGAN-Democrats-heading-election-disaster-dont-stand-violence.html

That’s actually reassuring if the great Piers Morgan thinks Trump will win handily.  He could be right, but as the old saying goes, a broken clock is right twice a day.

I do think it’s funny that Trump decided to visit Kenosha. I understand he’s desperate to change the conversation from his terrible job managing the pandemic, but him standing in front of the destruction that happened on his watch makes me wonder what his campaign is thinking. He’s essentially supplying b-role footage for the Biden campaign and Democratic PACs.

 

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3 hours ago, downzy said:

That’s actually reassuring if the great Piers Morgan thinks Trump will win handily.  He could be right, but as the old saying goes, a broken clock is right twice a day.

But the polling data cited (I have personally never put credence in opinion polling but I know you do),

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Quote

 

Moore’s dire warning was shared by New York Post columnist David Harsanyi who pointed out that in 2016, the RealClearPolitics poll average had Hillary up 6.5 points in Wisconsin on Election Day, and she’d been at 11.5 in August 2016.

Not a single poll had Trump winning Wisconsin, but he won there.

Today, Joe Biden is up in the same RealClearPolitics average by just 3.5 points in Wisconsin.

There’s a similar pattern emerging in other swing states like Pennsylvania, and, as Moore revealed, Minnesota and Michigan.

 

 

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37 minutes ago, DieselDaisy said:

But the polling data cited (I have personally never put credence in opinion polling but I know you do),

32553092-8678039-image-a-68_159875374841

 

Like I said, I'm not adverse to the notion that Trump could win.  But there's a few problems or context that your post misses.

First, amalgamated polling of swing states is extremely pointless.  The poll quoted by Moore consists of 15 states with 1100 participants total.  That works out to 100 people per swing state.  That's an insanely low number of participants to decipher any clear indication as to how the race is going.  The poll also oversampled swing states that are likely going to vote for Trump (Texas, Idaho, Georgia, etc.).  As the poll notes, it included ten states that Trump won in 2016 and only five states that Clinton won in 2016.  It's just not an effective way to measure how a race is shaping up.  

Second, the same poll also found that amongst the most enthusiastic to vote, Biden led Trump by 53 to 46 percent.  So that kind of undercuts Moore's assertion that Trump's base is more energetic.  I have no doubt that Trump supporters are more hyped to vote for Trump than Democratic voters are to vote for Biden; but that's only looking at one side of the coin.  Utter contempt and disdain amongst Democrats for Trump will likely be the driving force that motivates Democrats and left-leaning democrats to not only vote, but not vote for a third party like some did in 2016.

37 minutes ago, DieselDaisy said:

Moore’s dire warning was shared by New York Post columnist David Harsanyi who pointed out that in 2016, the RealClearPolitics poll average had Hillary up 6.5 points in Wisconsin on Election Day, and she’d been at 11.5 in August 2016.

Not a single poll had Trump winning Wisconsin, but he won there.

Today, Joe Biden is up in the same RealClearPolitics average by just 3.5 points in Wisconsin.

There’s a similar pattern emerging in other swing states like Pennsylvania, and, as Moore revealed, Minnesota and Michigan.

There was definitely a miss-fire in some of the state polling, with Wisconsin and Ohio being prime examples.  The national polling was almost dead on in 2016 but that really doesn't matter much since states won.  I will say that 538 currently has Biden up by 7.5 - 8 points.  That's about the same or a bit more than Obama's landslide win in 2008 over McCain.  I don't see any chances Biden wins by anywhere close to 8 points since America has only grown more divided and polarized since 2016.  But I think a 5 point national lead for Biden is likely.  

Put it this way: does anyone think that Biden will do worse against Trump than Clinton did in 2016?  Clinton was a vilified for 20+ years by the right.  Biden just doesn't generate that kind of contempt, hatred, and rage in the same way Clinton did.  Trump's approval certainly hasn't grown since his 2016 election; in fact it's decreased by about three or four percent.  

Finally, pollsters have gone over their mistakes from 2016 and corrected for the what they missed: they under-sampled less educated voters in 2016.  Most reputable polling firms have now adjusted their sampling pools to include more individuals with less education.  That doesn't mean they'll be 100 percent accurate this year (they won't).  But the adjusted polling that predicted a Democratic wave in the 2018 mid-terms did prove to be incredibly accurate.  

Again, Trump might very well win.  And it's probably a good thing for Biden and Democrats not to trust the polls and assume that a polling lead translates into a guaranteed victory.  There are likely hundreds of thousands of people in various swing states that didn't vote in 2016 because they assumed Clinton was a lock.  I don't think anyone is assuming that to be true this time around.  

 

 

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21 hours ago, downzy said:

LOL...

 

They still don't seem to understand that they can't win that argument...for example....

 - This is actually happening with Trump as president (Aka Trump's America)

 - They may respond, "Those are Democrat run cities.  That's not Trump's fault as president"

 -OK...then how could it be "Biden's fault as president" if in fact something like that were to happen when Biden is president (which has not yet happened), if it's not the president's fault? 

It can never be Biden's fault according to their own, deranged logic.   :lol:

 

It's among the dumbest things I've seen.  Beyond stupid.   

 

 

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Watched some more footage of the MAGA caravan in Portland. That is some quality homoeroticism going on in the beds of those pickup trucks. Bunch of identical bears rubbing up on one another and getting passionate. Sexual repression can produce violence. I guess its a symptom of a nation with only two parties, both of whom are conservative.

Patriot Prayer the gay away :lol:

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