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The US Politics/Elections Thread


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2 minutes ago, Dazey said:

But even on the down ballot candidates your mail in vote will be received and counted along with all the rest. I mean what actual evidence can you cite that makes you think your vote won't be counted? The only issue I can think of is that it might not get where it needs to go as Louis DeJoy has been doing everything he can to hobble the postal service at your boy's behest.

I'm just more comfortable voting in person and see no reason why I can't.  If it's because of the virus then DMV shouldn't be open either.  I went a month ago and stood in line for four hours to renew my CDL.  But that's ok because the state gets their money.  

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1 hour ago, Swampfox said:

I can walk into Home Depot, Lowe's, or go have dinner indoors.  Churches are open indoors.  I want to pull the lever and know my vote counts.  If we all wear masks why can't we vote in person?  Voter fraud that's why.  A guy I work with got two mail in ballots for himself and one for his dog.  I'm not kidding.  How can anyone trust this flawed system?  Anyone who isn't afraid of the .0001 chance of dying from covid should not have their right to vote in person taken away by a liberal governor.

1. It's different and you know it. You have control over those trips and voting often requires standing in place in line. Plus there are alternatives to those with delivery and curb side pickup. You can fill your ballot out at home and take it to the clerk where you just drop it off without hassle. The fraud narrative is bullshit. Then, you can check later to ensure your ballot was counted

2. No, your friend didn't get one for his dog

3. It's .6% overall as of now

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6 hours ago, Graeme said:

I really hate this notion that because right wing politics is obnoxious and confrontational, that it's somehow anti-establishment. Trump literally grew up within the world's social elite, and I'm not talking about some shadowy conspiracy-theory-bullshit illuminati, I'm talking about the empirically observable global capitalist class. His policies have done precisely nothing to shift the balance of power to those who have less, even within his own supporter base. He continues to assist his billionaire peers through tax cuts and to uphold every tenet of the system that sees wealth and influence concentrated among a tiny proportion of the population, but because he's fine with his supporters airing their unfettered discriminatory bile on feminists, immigrants, ethnic and sexual minorities et fucking cetera -  he's some sort of 'man of the people'. Is he fuck.

Then the question is why there are millions of people in the U.S. who don't want immigrants, gays, people of color and women rights? I'm not asking a white person to be best friends with minority groups. But why such big rejection?

It's the year 2020 not 1820

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11 minutes ago, Padme said:

Then the question is why there are millions of people in the U.S. who don't want immigrants, gays, people of color and women rights? I'm not asking a white person to be best friends with minority groups. But why such big rejection?

It's the year 2020 not 1820

The United States actually had a much more liberal immigration policy in 1820 than today - indeed, the first immigration law was not passed until 1875. Anyone could enter freely, white persons claiming naturalization after a period of residency. 

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45 minutes ago, DieselDaisy said:

The United States actually had a much more liberal immigration policy in 1820 than today - indeed, the first immigration law was not passed until 1875. Anyone could enter freely, white persons claiming naturalization after a period of residency. 

"They come to our country and think they'll do as they please" 

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15 minutes ago, Swampfox said:

"They come to our country and think they'll do as they please" 

Pretty much what your ancestors did.

------------------------------------

Election night might not be such a shit show as initially feared if current polling holds up:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/12/biden-trump-2020-election-night-428856

There is almost zero chance we know the night of the election of a Trump victory.  It is very possible, thanks to North Carolina and Florida's ability to count mail-in ballots prior to the election day, that Biden could have it sown up by 9:00-10:00pm Tuesday night.  

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2 hours ago, DieselDaisy said:

The United States actually had a much more liberal immigration policy in 1820 than today - indeed, the first immigration law was not passed until 1875. Anyone could enter freely, white persons claiming naturalization after a period of residency. 

And Irish immigrants had it hard, mostly because of their religion. They were the punch line of every joke. They had to deal with hate and bully. That was in 1820, 1875 and so on

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Trump needs to be no more than down three percent in the national vote to have a 40-50 percent chance of winning the electoral college.

Biden is currently up 10 points nationally based on polling averages with 22 days to go.  Only twice in the last 40 years have the polls shifted by 7 points in the last 22 days (1992 and 1996; which were likely outliers due to Ross Perot running strong a third party campaign).

One thing to watch in the next three weeks are covid cases. Case numbers are on the upswing in 40 states. If the US is seeing 60k-80k new cases a day leading into election day, Trump is fucked. I think he’s already done, but the increasing number of covid cases is a strong headwind for an incumbent who continues to do everything wrong in managing the pandemic.  If Trump or Russians have something nasty on Biden, they better release it soon. Millions of people are already voting or have voted. Time is now to drop any additional October surprises. 

EDIT: Missed 1980, so that would be three elections in the last 40 years where the polls swung by 7 points in the last three weeks.  I believe 1980 was heavily affected by Reagan's second debate performance ("there you go again) close to the election date.  

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2 hours ago, downzy said:

Pretty much what your ancestors did.

------------------------------------

Election night might not be such a shit show as initially feared if current polling holds up:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/12/biden-trump-2020-election-night-428856

There is almost zero chance we know the night of the election of a Trump victory.  It is very possible, thanks to North Carolina and Florida's ability to count mail-in ballots prior to the election day, that Biden could have it sown up by 9:00-10:00pm Tuesday night.  

My ancestors on my Father's side of the family came here in the 1700s and helped build this country.  I'm also Native American on my mother's side.  My ancestors came here and worked hard to build a great country.  They didn't come here looking for government handouts.

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1 hour ago, Padme said:

And Irish immigrants had it hard, mostly because of their religion. They were the punch line of every joke. They had to deal with hate and bully. That was in 1820, 1875 and so on

I wasn't denying that there was nativist resistance, merely that the immigration policy as it stood in 1820 was far more liberal than 2020.

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1 minute ago, Swampfox said:

They didn't come here looking for government handouts.

1) There were no "government hand outs" (well, other than the free land state governments gave to newly arrived immigrants).

2) If there were handouts, how do you know they wouldn't have taken them.

3) Not all immigrants are looking for hand outs.  Many born in America take hand outs.  

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12 minutes ago, DieselDaisy said:

I wasn't denying that there was nativist resistance, merely that the immigration policy as it stood in 1820 was far more liberal than 2020.

 But that's because the current system is broken. 

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59 minutes ago, DieselDaisy said:

Well that is a political point, not a historical point.

There is huge fake ID industry in the U.S. That's a broken sytem. You can arrive with a tourist visa, student visa or work permit. Once it expire, you can stay. It's way too easy to get fake social security number or green card. Even underage citizens get a fake ID to go to nightclubs. It happens in many places around the world. But U.S happens in record numbers.

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