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The US Politics/Elections Thread


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Donald Trump just grabbed America by the pussy

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On 10/21/2020 at 6:24 PM, 31illusions said:

So all the haters like Downzy, Dazey, Angelica and all the rest will eat crow come election day. All the time they spent on here pushing their narrative of how terrible Trump is will all be for NOTHING. Trump will win. They'll cry fowl. America will continue to prosper, Amy Coney Barret will be on the SCOTUS, God is in his heaven and all will be right in the world.

#Trump2020

You poor hoor....

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One thing to keep in mind is that the mailed votes being counted in PA arrived prior or on November 3rd. They likely won’t even begin to count any ballots that were mailed yesterday until Friday or next week. So if Biden pulls ahead in PA tomorrow or early Friday then there’s not much the Supreme Court can do to overturn the results in PA. 

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It’s stuff like this I find the most interesting. Who turned out? Who didn’t?  Was there a difference between the previous election. 

Congrats and thank you black Americans for helping to save the country from further decline. 

 

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Another thing I’m interested in is how much the polls were off. Undoubtedly the polling for house and senate races were terrible this cycle.  Everything looked good for Democrats to pick up seats in the House and retake the Senate. Neither is likely to happen.

But the polling on the Presidential race might not have been far off, with a few exceptions. Polls so far seem to have been accurate enough in Arizona, New Hampshire, and Georgia. Even though Biden lost Florida, it’s looking like it still fell within the margin of error.  Biden could very well end up winning PA by 2-3 percent, which would be slightly lower than what 538 gave him (4.7 percent). 

Nationally Biden is likely to win at least a five point margin, which while a bit lower than polling aggregates, is still within the margin of error.  Trump seemed to have outperformed polls by 2-3 points, which is similar to 2016.  

There were some real flops though. Michigan and Wisconsin missed the mark again. Texas came in much bigger for Trump than what the polls had indicated.

Also interesting to see Trump running behind many house and senate races. One theory is that voters in 2018 had no way to punish Trump other than to vote for the mid term Democrat. With the Presidential cycle, those same voters who maybe more conservative but don’t like Trump could split their vote and voice their distaste for Trump but still vote for their priorities and values. 

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On 11/3/2020 at 4:10 AM, downzy said:

By checking out?  That’s a cop out. 

Yes, people have the right not to vote. But by doing so a person also shirks their responsibility to be a good citizen. Americans are so focused on rights they lose sight of responsibilities and duty. And they will continue to suffer for it. I say this with respect to America not being alone. 

Downzy - I've taken a few days off to observe the chaos unfold before responding to you. Allow me to acknowledge your thoughtful disagreement and sensible, fact-based retorts. Looks like you were spot on with Biden being the president elect (assuming we don't get another surprise).

I do maintain that I was (somewhat) correct because whichever way you slice it up, America didn't give the outright rejection of Trump many expected. He was/is clearly a popular president for many people and many seemed to have wanted him re-elected. The whole "take Pennsylvania to the Supreme Court" and "demanding a recount" in states where, legally, it doesn't apply is embarrassing as I'm sure we'll all agree.

I asked my girlfriend's mother about her opinion of Trump likely losing the election. Her response was that it's "sad but is what it is; "Biden will be a decent leader and the Senate will likely remain Republican which could give us the best of both worlds'." I genuinely believe, for those who support a free market, that might not be far from the truth.

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