The US Politics/Elections Thread

[TheSeeker 1,380]

 

[downzy 8,810]

https://www.rollcall.com/news/congress/a-year-out-heres-four-ways-2020-elections-could-go

"Democrats face a divisive primary, but the prospect of four more years of Trump could be a powerful unifier. Clinton received support from 89 percent of Democratic voters in 2016, but the 2020 nominee who gets closer to the 92 percent President Barack Obama received in 2012 and the 95 percent Democratic House and Senate candidates received in 2018 will be able to make inauguration plans. That solidification (and fewer Democrats voting for third-party candidates) would be enough to swing Trump’s closest 2016 states and pull another handful of states into the Democratic column as well.

Trump has a reputation for defying historical norms because of his initial victory, but he’s up against a heavy burden of precedent this time. Every incumbent with an approval rating of 49 percent or higher won re-election, while every candidate with a rating of 48 percent or lower lost, according to FiveThirtyEight. In his first four years in office, Trump’s job approval rating has not consistently risen above 45 percent."

[Gibsonfender2323 710]

Daily Reminder that Epsitines death was not suicide

[downzy 8,810]

Hopefully, but unlikely, we hear the last of those saying there was no quid pro quo after the release of American ambassador to the EU's testimony that American foreign aid was conditional an investigation into the Bidens.  His revised testimony released today makes it clear, if it wasn't clear already, that Trump was leveraging Congressionally appointed foreign aid to assist his re-election efforts.  

If that isn't an outright abuse of power worthy of impeachment and removal from office then nothing will ever be.   

2 minutes ago, Gibsonfender2323 said:

Daily Reminder that Epsitines death was not suicide

Daily reminder that it's still speculation.  

[Silent Jay 3,316]

Good Morning America co-host Amy Robach claimed her network ABC spiked an investigative report on Jeffrey Epstein in 2016. They said it was a stupid story 

[Dazey 9,457]

19 minutes ago, Silent Jay said:

Good Morning America co-host Amy Robach claimed her network ABC spiked an investigative report on Jeffrey Epstein in 2016. They said it was a stupid story 

Project Veritas? Yeah, no need to watch that then. 

[Basic_GnR_Fan 533]

4 minutes ago, Dazey said:

Project Veritas? Yeah, no need to watch that then. 

*Man buries his head in sand and refuses to leave his bubble*

[janrichmond 9,620]

1 minute ago, Basic_GnR_Fan said:

*Man buries his head in sand and refuses to leave his bubble*

*man mixes metaphors

[Dazey 9,457]

18 minutes ago, Basic_GnR_Fan said:

*Man buries his head in sand and refuses to leave his bubble*

If James O'Keefe is the best you can do to further a narrative just give up.  

[Padme 3,135]

It's official! Virginia is blue 

Ketucky, also begining to turn blue. It's battleground State for the next election

And Mississippi, still red. BUT not by a huge margin, at least for Governor election. The main issues were Obamacare and taxes. They don't want any of that

[Basic_GnR_Fan 533]

16 hours ago, Dazey said:

If James O'Keefe is the best you can do to further a narrative just give up.  

Focus. Is the clip of the news anchor real or not? She is complaining that she had the goods on Epstein years ago but that it got killed by her superiors. Media taking a big L on this one.

2 hours ago, Padme said:

It's official! Virginia is blue 

Ketucky, also begining to turn blue. It's battleground State for the next election

And Mississippi, still red. BUT not by a huge margin, at least for Governor election. The main issues were Obamacare and taxes. They don't want any of that

I knew this would happen. When the GOP runs on tax cuts for the rich and "MY OPPONENT IS A SOCIALIST" rhetoric, regular GOP voters don't give a shit and will sit home.

[Basic_GnR_Fan 533]

16 hours ago, janrichmond said:

*man mixes metaphors

What, he's doubly unwilling to hear a different argument, head in sand and in a bubble!

[Gibsonfender2323 710]

     Kentucky is not turning blue nor will be a Battleground State

    1 Bevin was the most unpopular governor in the country hated by both sides he was down by 17 last week and came within 4,000 votes an lost to the son of the most popular governor their ever.

   2. No GOP GOV has ever won re-election there 3 out of 22 Governor’s have been GOP since WWII

  They swept all of the statewide offices including AG which is Republicans for the first time in 70 years, the state senate and general assembly is still re

  3. Bevin should have lost in a landslide. 

 

Edited November 6, 2019 by Gibsonfender2323

[-W.A.R- 2,692]

1 hour ago, Basic_GnR_Fan said:

I knew this would happen. When the GOP runs on tax cuts for the rich and "MY OPPONENT IS A SOCIALIST" rhetoric, regular GOP voters don't give a shit and will sit home.

Supposedly in private Trump is shook at the populist appeal of progressive platforms.

Trump Privately Tells Confidants That ‘Socialism’ Won’t Be ‘So Easy’ to Beat in 2020

Trump Calls Bernie Sanders Crazy, Praises Him in Private

[Basic_GnR_Fan 533]

25 minutes ago, -W.A.R- said:

Supposedly in private Trump is shook at the populist appeal of progressive platforms.

Trump Privately Tells Confidants That ‘Socialism’ Won’t Be ‘So Easy’ to Beat in 2020

Trump Calls Bernie Sanders Crazy, Praises Him in Private

Public vs private positions! He better be worried, because socialistic/populist economics plus non crazy social issue values would dominate American politics and everyone knows it. What screws everything up is what the big donors funding both sides demand.

[Jakey Styley 752]

2 hours ago, Gibsonfender2323 said:

     Kentucky is not turning blue nor will be a Battleground State

    1 Bevin was the most unpopular governor in the country hated by both sides he was down by 17 last week and came within 4,000 votes an lost to the son of the most popular governor their ever.

   2. No GOP GOV has ever won re-election there 3 out of 22 Governor’s have been GOP since WWII

  They swept all of the statewide offices including AG which is Republicans for the first time in 70 years, the state senate and general assembly is still re

  3. Bevin should have lost in a landslide. 

 

Kinda with you here. The margin was too narrow to be indicative of very much. And Democratic governors are far from unusual in the state.

[-W.A.R- 2,692]

I'm having a laugh at Republicans scrambling to find a defense.

1. There was no QPQ! Read the transcript!

2. Okay there was QPQ but that happens all the time with Foreign Policy!

3. Trump is an idiot with no direction! Hes incapable of forming a QPQ!

Edited November 6, 2019 by -W.A.R-

[downzy 8,810]

One thing that yesterday made clear is that Virginia is no longer a swing state.

First time in 50 years that Democrats control both state houses, the governorship, both federal senate seats, and voted for the Democratic candidate in the previous presidential election.

Republican politics have now been shut out in Virginia urban areas and suburbs.  Fairfax County, once a Republican stronghold, has become a lock for the Democrats.

With respect to Kentucky, I kind of dismiss claims that a small Democratic victory for the Governor's mansion doesn't mean anything.  No, Kentucky isn't about to become a swing state, but the claim that because Bevin didn't lose in a landslide is a win for Republican politics is a bit questionable.  There have been a lot of terrible Republican and Democratic Governors who have won re-election in states that are traditionally deep red or deep blue.  In a state where Republican registration is plus ten over democrats, where Trump got 22 percent of the Democratic vote in 2016 and won the state by 30 points, it's significant that Trump and Trumpism couldn't keep the Governor's mansion red in 2019.  

Significant is that Trump-style Republicans seem to lose when they try to nationalize the race: make it about Warren, Pelosi, socialism, impeachment, Trump.  Democrats in 2020 should learn that they win by focusing on small-ball politics; focus on healthcare, education, inequality.  That's how Beshare won yesterday.  

[downzy 8,810]

6 hours ago, -W.A.R- said:

I'm having a laugh at Republicans scrambling to find a defense.

1. There was no QPQ! Read the transcript!

2. Okay there was QPQ but that happens all the time with Foreign Policy!

3. Trump is an idiot with no direction! Hes incapable of forming a QPQ!

It would be hilarious if it wasn't so sad watching these idiots trip all over themselves.  

Graham also now claims that Gordon Sondland, Trump's hand-picked ambassador to the EU who donated heavily to Trump in 2016, is now somehow in cahoots with "Democratic operatives" on the House Intelligence Committee after changing revising his testimony to confirm the presence of quid pro quo.  The man is a total failure as a human being, let alone a politician.  Apparently when McCain died he took what little integrity Graham had with him.  

My favourite new defence now being offered is that because Ukraine ultimately ended up getting their aid and Trump didn't get the investigation he wanted, we should give Trump a pass.

Essentially because the crime wasn't committed, it wasn't a crime.

So in Republican politics, attempted murder should no longer be seen as a crime.  You can attempt to rob a bank, but if you leave the bank without actually taking the cash, you should avoid prosecution.

[downzy 8,810]

I also think it's hilarious that Republicans continue to claim that Democrats are simply attempting to undo the results from 2016.  It's mind-boggling to think that Democrats would choose now, less than a year out from 2020, to force an impeachment process on the country because they think it's in their national interests.

https://www.politico.com/news/2019/11/06/impeachment-defense-bill-jim-inhofe-067150

Impeachment and conviction isn't about undoing election results.  Hillary Clinton would not suddenly become President.  Republicans would still call the shots in the Executive Branch.  If abuse of power by the executive could simply be remedied by the next election, it wouldn't have been included in the fucking constitution.  

At this point, you have to be a complete fucking moron or a sad political hack to dismiss the impeachment process as nothing but a partisan effort by the Democrats.  The amount of corroborating evidence and statements from administrative officials makes is remarkably clear that Trump was engaging in the worst forms of abuse of power one can imagine.  I've always hoped the American public would get another shot of fixing their own mistakes, but considering what we know how, it is nothing short of a dereliction of duty for elected members of the House and Senate not to remove Trump from office.  Otherwise the White House becomes nothing more than a change agent for the highest foreign bidder.  

[TheSeeker 1,380]

6 minutes ago, downzy said:

Otherwise the White House becomes nothing more than a change agent for the highest foreign bidder.  

Uhhhh buddy. It's been exactly that for decades.

The only way Republicans decide to vote for the removal of Trump is if the hypothetical matchups between President Pence and the Democratic field in 2020 look winnable. Otherwise, they're not going to bother.

[downzy 8,810]

1 minute ago, TheSeeker said:

Uhhhh buddy. It's been exactly that for decades.

Prepared to provide examples that are akin to what Trump has done with Ukraine?

[Basic_GnR_Fan 533]

11 hours ago, downzy said:

One thing that yesterday made clear is that Virginia is no longer a swing state.

First time in 50 years that Democrats control both state houses, the governorship, both federal senate seats, and voted for the Democratic candidate in the previous presidential election.

Republican politics have now been shut out in Virginia urban areas and suburbs.  Fairfax County, once a Republican stronghold, has become a lock for the Democrats.

With respect to Kentucky, I kind of dismiss claims that a small Democratic victory for the Governor's mansion doesn't mean anything.  No, Kentucky isn't about to become a swing state, but the claim that because Bevin didn't lose in a landslide is a win for Republican politics is a bit questionable.  There have been a lot of terrible Republican and Democratic Governors who have won re-election in states that are traditionally deep red or deep blue.  In a state where Republican registration is plus ten over democrats, where Trump got 22 percent of the Democratic vote in 2016 and won the state by 30 points, it's significant that Trump and Trumpism couldn't keep the Governor's mansion red in 2019.  

Significant is that Trump-style Republicans seem to lose when they try to nationalize the race: make it about Warren, Pelosi, socialism, impeachment, Trump.  Democrats in 2020 should learn that they win by focusing on small-ball politics; focus on healthcare, education, inequality.  That's how Beshare won yesterday.  

Was Bevin really a Trump Republican? Is Trump even still a (2016) Trump Republican?

I don't know much about Bevin, but based on his wikipedia page, his fiscal issues section makes him sound like a standard Paul Ryan type Republican, not a 2016 Trump style Republican.

[downzy 8,810]

2 hours ago, Basic_GnR_Fan said:

Was Bevin really a Trump Republican? Is Trump even still a (2016) Trump Republican?

I don't know much about Bevin, but based on his wikipedia page, his fiscal issues section makes him sound like a standard Paul Ryan type Republican, not a 2016 Trump style Republican.

Trumpism is more about attitude and posture than it is about policy.  Bevin hugged as tightly as he could to the identity politics practiced by Trump to inflame divisions and gin up support amongst an angry, largely uneducated white base.

Trump is just as, if not more, popular today with Republicans and his voters than he was in 2016 despite adopting much of Paul Ryan's conservative policy platform.  Gutting regulations, lowering taxes on the wealth, cutting and dismantling the social safety net.  So if Trump's continued popularity amongst his base has little do with with his record of governance, then it has to be about something else.  Like I said, attitude and posturing.  

 

[Basic_GnR_Fan 533]

13 minutes ago, downzy said:

Trumpism is more about attitude and posture than it is about policy.  Bevin hugged as tightly as he could to the identity politics practiced by Trump to inflame divisions and gin up support amongst an angry, largely uneducated white base.

Trump is just as, if not more, popular today with Republicans and his voters than he was in 2016 despite adopting much of Paul Ryan's conservative policy platform.  Gutting regulations, lowering taxes on the wealth, cutting and dismantling the social safety net.  So if Trump's continued popularity amongst his base has little do with with his record of governance, then it has to be about something else.  Like I said, attitude and posturing.  

 

Trump as president is all attitude and posture, no doubt there. But policy wise he has been essentially standard operating procedure Republican, or Wall Street Republican, or whatever you want to call it. Nothing like the guy who ran in 2016. Where's the guy who stood up in a debate in a southern state calling the Iraq war a disaster and George W Bush a liar and saying he wanted to get out of these wars (in reality he hasn't been able to fully pull out of Syria or Afghanistan)? Where's the guy who said he wanted an end to illegal immigration but also reduce legal immigration (now he claims he wants more legal immigrants)? Where is the guy who talked about replacing Obamacare with something (he was never specific but if you read in between the lines he was talking about some type of national system that covered everybody and had competition between providers, now he doesn't even talk about healthcare)? Where's the guy who talked about big infrastructure spending (again, another thing he never talks about now)? But I agree, he as turned out to be all hot air. A sheep in wolf's clothing is what I call him.

I would need to see the numbers, but I have a feeling turnout of Trump type republicans has to be lower than it otherwise would be if he were actually fighting for the policies he ran on in 2016 rather than the Paul Ryan agenda.

Edit: I think there's a large swath of the American electorate who want left wing economics, more traditional social values, and 'isolationist' (even though I think that is a bad term) foreign policy. But no one will actually give it to the public because the big donors want the antithesis of all of that.

Edited November 7, 2019 by Basic_GnR_Fan