How much has CD sold as of 2015?

[Strange Broue]

As for revenues: I have read that a record label typically earn $10 per record sold. With 4-6 millions sold, this amounts to 40-60 millions. With 3 millions, like some believe, the number is 30 million. The profit for the record company, on the other hand is naturally much lower. You have to subtract manufacturing costs, promotion costs, and royalties to artist and publisher, composer, and the like. And the manufacturing cost of CD was substantial. Rough and general numbers on these costs for a record that sells 1 million copies:

Manufacture: 1 million

Promotion: 1 million

Royalties: 2.4 million

But the manufacturing costs of CD was 13 million! So, with 3 millions sold, the combined costs should be something like 23.2 millions (13+3+7.2), leaving only 6.8 millions in profit. With 4 millions sold, the profit is 13.4 million, with 6 millions, it is 26.6 millions. This may sound like a lot, but typical manufacturing costs is 1 million, not 13, meaning that there is a loss of 12 millions in profit, or just half of what would have been expected for a normal record if it sold 4 million units.

Of course, I don't know how well these numbers can be applied to CD, every record is different, but at least it gives some ballpark figures.

2 dollars at best buy....

and people not even buy it, a lot of copies still rot...

so it IS a flop

[DieselDaisy]

3 million. 3.5 million max. '5 million' is blatantly absurd.

If you have copies for 1.99 in bins then it is a 'flop' however much you try and dress it up.

Edited September 23, 2015 by DieselDaisy

[DR DOOM]

and people not even buy it, a lot of copies still rot...

so it IS a flop

The album is too much complex for regular/dumb people, who statistics say, 98.7% out of every squillion are incapable of appreciating the wonders of sub bass.

[wasted]

Unless you can crush 6 packs to it it aint worth a damn. I listen to this i love in my truck and just weep.

[SoulMonster]

3 million. 3.5 million max. '5 million' is blatantly absurd.

Why do you think it is blatantly absurd?

[SoulMonster]

Yeah, it has been discussed to death, but since I was involved int his discussion in another thread, clogging it up with off-topic talk, I thought it was better to start a new thread. Why is this important? It isn't to me, I just got entangled. But to some it is important, maybe because they want to show that CD wasn't a commercial failure (good luck with that!) or because they want to show to what extent it was. Or maybe they just like to know.

Anyway. Here is what I know:

Universal Music claimed in February 6, 2009, that 2.6 million copies had been sold globally. That is a couple of months after the release. It may be that they aren't talking about how many copies have been sold from retail stores etc, but how many copies they have shipped to retailers. After all, UMG is interested in a return on their investment, so to them what is important is how many records they sell to retailers. But on the other hand, they represent the artist who is interested in how many actually buy their records, to gauge artistisc success. So hard to say, but I lean towards that number being the actual sales figures.

Then, in late 2009, a list of certifications was released. Exactly when the various certifications were released is not known, they could have happened at any time between release date and November 2009. What is interesting with such lists is that we can estimate the number of shipped units based on which certifications have been reached. The obvious problem is that we don't have such data for all markets and that the certifications came at various timepoints from early 2009 to late 2009, meaning that more could and would have been shipped to each market since then. Anyway, if I do this work, and only use the lowest number required for each certification, then I get that by late 2009 at least 2.4 million copies of CD had been shipped. But this number is grossly under-weighted. Many of these certifications were reached early, and the record must have continued shipping (usually you only ship some units to any market, shipping more depending upon how well the units are then sold). The number is based on a mix of sales and shipping data (under the understanding that each unit sold must have been shipped). In my opinion, we can't really use this number for anything, since what we have is a mix of shipped and sales numbers that don't cover the whole global market, and for various timepoints.

[btw, this list of certifications seems to be the same that was used by this fellow to make his estimate of 2.8 millions: http://www.gunsnfnroses.com/index.php?/topic/10153-chinese-democracy-sales-definative/Again, he is also looking at a list of combined shipped and sold. The reason why his number is higher than mine, is that he used average numbers (he assumed the records had sold more by 2011, or whenever he did the work) and because he factored in other markets for which we had no data by assuming they would account for 8-9 % of the total global sales].

So to summarize, UMG claims 2.6 millions were sold by February 2009. By looking at certifications, we know that at least 2.4 millions had been shipped by late 2009. It doesn't really help us much in estimating how many have been SOLD by 2015

An alternative approach is to take actual sales numbers that are recent, and then extrapolate this sales figures to cover other markets. The obvious weakness of this method is to be able to only include markets where we can assume the sales numbers will be similar (per capita). One way of doing this is to extrapolate to other "gold" or "platinum" markets. Let's try this for USA and UK, where we do have quite recent sales numbers (at least for the UK).

"Gold market".

Known sales of CD in USA in 2011: 614.000 (this is Gold certification).

Population: ~ 300 mill in USA which is 26 % of the total popuation in all the countries that reached Gold certification (shipping or sold) before the end of 2009.

Extrapolation for 2011: 2.36 millions.

"Platinum market".

Known sales of CD in the UK in 2014: 368.899.

Population: 64 mill in UK which is 14 % of the total population in all the countries that reached Platinum certification (shipping or sold) before the end of 2009.

Extrapolation: 2.63 millions.

So by combining these markets (the Gold and the Platinum markets) we get that for 2014, the combined sales should be in the ballpark of 4.99 millions. If we add 8 % for the rest of the global market, we get 5.38 millions. The weakness of this method is the number for the Gold market is for 2011, more records will have been sold in this region since then; and that we are extrapolating for both shipped and sold. The first weakness means the actual number should be higher, the second weakness that it should be lower. I'd give it a plus/minus of 1 million. So from about 4 to 6 millions sold by 2015.

I found an article that claims the current (as of 2015) sales figures for USA is "less than 750k". I would prefer a more accurate number, but let's go with it. Less than 750k should mean anything from 700 to 750. I choose 720 to be on the safe side of not overshooting:

"Gold market".

Known sales of CD in USA in 2015: 720.000.

Population: ~ 300 mill in USA which is 26 % of the total popuation in all the countries that reached Gold certification (shipping or sold) before the end of 2009.

Extrapolation for 2015: 2.77 millions.

"Platinum market".

Known sales of CD in the UK in 2014: 368.899.

Population: 64 mill in UK which is 14 % of the total population in all the countries that reached Platinum certification (shipping or sold) before the end of 2009.

Extrapolation: 2.63 millions.

So by combining these, we get 5.4 millions. Again adding 8 % to account for the entire global market, this gives 5.8 millions. But again, this is based on data that were partially shipped and not only sold, and the sales figures in USA and UK may not be completely representative for their respective markets. I'll say the best estimation I can come up with is 5 millions plus/minus 1 million. It also means that USA accounts for more than 10 % of the market.

Some people refuse to accept anything above 3 millions. Why this particular number is chosen is beyond me, and I fear it is more based on feelings than anything else. If it is true, it would mean that one third of all CD copies sold, were sold in USA and UK! Is this really plausible when we have big markets like the rest of Europe, Canada, Brazil, Argentina, Indonesia etc, with lots of strong GN'R fans?

Edited September 23, 2015 by SoulMonster

[RussTCB]

It still puzzles me when anyone on either side of the argument cares how much or how little CD sold. Do you like it? GREAT! Do you hate it! GREAT! High or low sales have zero effect on your like or dislike of the album. I love plenty of albums that have sold far fewer copies than I expect, but that doesn't change how I feel about them at all. I've played certain albums for people because I thought they might like it, but I've never felt the need to do a bunch of research on how/why they sold or not.

I do have to say that I think anyone making large sales claims in the US really, really needs to look closer at the Best Buy deal. If you're counting the sales of the units to Best Buy and not the public, then you're sorely mistaken. The units that were sold to customers by Best Buy should be the only ones that count, not the 1.2mil or however many the company bought themselves. Best Buy DID eventually get rid of all the unwanted copies but they did so by selling them to clearance houses NOT by selling them to the record buying public.

Speaking of the clearance houses, I recently saw a whole rack of CD at one of those places and all it did was remind me of how much failure surrounded the album. It doesn't change my love of the album at all, but it does disappoint me because it's a reminder of how this whole thing turned out as opposed to how I thought it was going to go. That's a whole separate issue outside of record sales though, but it is further proof that the "Best Buy sold a ton of them!" argument holds absolutely no water.

[Tom2112]

As for revenues: I have read that a record label typically earn $10 per record sold. With 4-6 millions sold, this amounts to 40-60 millions. With 3 millions, like some believe, the number is 30 million. The profit for the record company, on the other hand is naturally much lower. You have to subtract manufacturing costs, promotion costs, and royalties to artist and publisher, composer, and the like. And the manufacturing cost of CD was substantial. Rough and general numbers on these costs for a record that sells 1 million copies:

Manufacture: 1 million

Promotion: 1 million

Royalties: 2.4 million

But the manufacturing costs of CD was 13 million! So, with 3 millions sold, the combined costs should be something like 23.2 millions (13+3+7.2), leaving only 6.8 millions in profit. With 4 millions sold, the profit is 13.4 million, with 6 millions, it is 26.6 millions. This may sound like a lot, but typical manufacturing costs is 1 million, not 13, meaning that there is a loss of 12 millions in profit, or just half of what would have been expected for a normal record if it sold 4 million units.

Of course, I don't know how well these numbers can be applied to CD, every record is different, but at least it gives some ballpark figures.

2 dollars at best buy....

and people not even buy it, a lot of copies still rot...

so it IS a flop

Yep $2 at BestBuy but that probably takes away the mark up on cds... so the loss is probably relatively low. Also, the only people who lost out when they slashed prices for CD was BestBuy. BestBuy bought 1 million copies right? well, they paid for them... so that money would have already been in the labels and GnRs pockets on the day of it's release, it's up to best buy to sell the album after that makes no difference to the label or GnR (financially).

[SoulMonster]

I do have to say that I think anyone making large sales claims in the US really, really needs to look closer at the Best Buy deal. If you're counting the sales of the units to Best Buy and not the public, then you're sorely mistaken. The units that were sold to customers by Best Buy should be the only ones that count, not the 1.2mil or however many the company bought themselves. Best Buy DID eventually get rid of all the unwanted copies but they did so by selling them to clearance houses NOT by selling them to the record buying public.

The only actual updated sales figure I have seen for CD in the US is "less than 750 000". We know it had sold 614k in 2011. I assume both of these are actual records sold to customers, because we know that Best Buy bought more than a million record. Again, this suggests that Best Buy is the loser when it comes to the economics of CD.

[T-Minus]

The only way you can call it a failure is in it's inability to live up to the suspense, intrigue and anticipation. In that sense, it bombed. But like I said, Axl, doing literally NOTHING to promote it, before, during and after is a massive factor in that. It should have came out earlier, in 06/07 would have been ideal.

I don't care if it bombed or not though personally, it doesn't influence how i hear the music.

Axl doing nothing probably had no effect on sales. The story of Axl doing no promo was the promo.

It didnt bomb it was one of the best selling records of 2008.

Impossible to live up to the hype. But damn it nearly did. 12 GNR classics.

12 GnR CLASSICS? Where? haha

[moreblack]

12 GnR classics? no.

[RussTCB]

12 GnR classics? no.

I've been accused of liking the album too much and even I would never say it has "12 GN'R Classics". I like 12 out of 14 tracks, but only 3 of them (Better, There Was A Time, The Blues) would make my "favorites list".

[Dr. Who]

My favorite NuGNR track was the only one they didn't put on CD: Oh My God.

[DieselDaisy]

3 million. 3.5 million max. '5 million' is blatantly absurd.

Why do you think it is blatantly absurd?

5 million is just under Black Ice's sales and Black Ice was considered a commercial smash! I've never met anyone who bought CD; the album sank without trace; there was no radio singles; and it didn't seem to have legs.

[Rustycage]

lol

Definitely less than 3 million. I doubt even 2 million people bought it. There are still a lot of copies out there collecting dust.

[maynard]

12 GnR classics? no.

It's wasted. A poster who has a free pass to spam post in the whole forum. Quality posters are all leaving or losing interest.

CD sold 1 billion copies if you extrapolate the numbers correctly.

[T-Minus]

I worry for people who think that Chinese Democracy contained "GnR Classics"... It contained some good examples of Axl Rose's talent. To say it had anything that touches the "real" Guns n Roses' classic back catalogue is ludicrous.

[RussTCB]

I worry for people who think that Chinese Democracy contained "GnR Classics"... It contained some good examples of Axl Rose's talent. To say it had anything that touches the "real" Guns n Roses' classic back catalogue is ludicrous.

I know (think?) this isn't pointed at me, but this is a POV that I just don't get.

It's totally ok for you to have the opinion that CD doesn't contain any classic tracks, so why would it not be ok for someone to have the opposite opinion. Just a moment ago I also argued the point that it doesn't have "12 GN'R Classics" but wasted is still entitled to believe that if we wants to, right?

[T-Minus]

Absolutely. It wasn't pointed at you. Anyone is free to have their opinion, and my opinion is that although it may contain some good songs and excellent bursts of Axl's genius, I in no way shape or form think there is anything classic about it. The biggest thing the album will always be known for is how long it took to make, how there were many musicians and how it was Axl Rose without the Guns.

If this album makes Wasted get all excited and makes him happy then great!

Just to add to that, if Wasted had argued the point that the "best" stuff on CD is superior to the "worst" stuff in the back catalogue, I would probably agree 9 times out of 10.

Edited September 23, 2015 by T-Minus

[RussTCB]

Absolutely. It wasn't pointed at you. Anyone is free to have their opinion, and my opinion is that although it may contain some good songs and excellent bursts of Axl's genius, I in no way shape or form think there is anything classic about it. The biggest thing the album will always be known for is how long it took to make, how there were many musicians and how it was Axl Rose without the Guns.

If this album makes Wasted get all excited and makes him happy then great!

Just to add to that, if Wasted had argued the point that the "best" stuff on CD is superior to the "worst" stuff in the back catalogue, I would probably agree 9 times out of 10.

Right on. I didnt mean to sound like I was coming down on anyone, I just think there's room for a lot of opinions where the music on CD is concerned.

[T-Minus]

Of course, that's the whole point of a forum really.

[ChineseIRS]

Wasnt Axl giving everyone involved signed CD records last year for 1 million copies sold in the US? As i recall, he was.

Edit: Yeah, just checked Sebastian Bachs picture he posted. Certified 1 million sales in USA.

Edited September 23, 2015 by ChineseIRS

[SoulMonster]

3 million. 3.5 million max. '5 million' is blatantly absurd.

Why do you think it is blatantly absurd?

5 million is just under Black Ice's sales and Black Ice was considered a commercial smash!

As of 2015, Black Ice has sold only 5 million copies? You are wrong. Already in 2008 that record had sold 6 million copies. I have no idea how much it has sold by 2015, but it is guaranteed a lot more than even my highest possible estimater for CD.

lol

Definitely less than 3 million. I doubt even 2 million people bought it. There are still a lot of copies out there collecting dust.

We know that the sales figures for UK and USA alone is about 1 million as per 2015. And still you doubt that the combined sales in the rest of Europe, Canada, South America (including Brazil and Argentina), Australia and New Zeland, and Asia (including populous countries like Indonesia, Taiwan, Japan and Malaysia) is more than 1 million?

[niceguy]

I bought the vinyl at Best Buy for $2 or whatever. The digital download code didn't work. I didn't care enough to seek a solution.

Later, the album became available on Spotify. Listened again a few times, still sounds just plain OK.

I kept the vinyl for a while on the wall of my music studio, as a reminder of what NOT to do.

So, that's one copy sold.

[RussTCB]

I bought the vinyl at Best Buy for $2 or whatever. The digital download code didn't work. I didn't care enough to seek a solution.

Later, the album became available on Spotify. Listened again a few times, still sounds just plain OK.

I kept the vinyl for a while on the wall of my music studio, as a reminder of what NOT to do.

So, that's one copy sold.

OK, so that's one down. Eleventy-billion to go.