The "New Album" Thread . The maybe, possibly, at some point, soon, whenever, wtf Axl thread🤞

[MaskingApathy]

19 minutes ago, Gordon Comstock said:

...how is this an argument?

Obviously people still buy CD's, but streaming is absolutely the more popular way to listen to music.

Record stores being closed probably won't have a huge effect on sales. Amazon sells tons of CD's and records. If they release an album, you can buy the CD on GNR's website. The excuses are pathetic, honestly.

Yeah I agree, I think most people would buy it from the GnR site or Amazon. But the streaming numbers are what matters more. Just depends on if Uncle Axl wants to release something or not.

Personally I think that it's ridiculous that in the 4 years of this reunion they haven't put out any singles, even if it was the seeker or BHS or something. Wouldn't be that hard.

[Kranich]

1 hour ago, sl4yer said:

...something like GNR yoyo

30$ each

[Gordon Comstock]

1 minute ago, MaskingApathy said:

Yeah I agree, I think most people would buy it from the GnR site or Amazon. But the streaming numbers are what matters more. Just depends on if Uncle Axl wants to release something or not.

Personally I think that it's ridiculous that in the 4 years of this reunion they haven't put out any singles, even if it was the seeker or BHS or something. Wouldn't be that hard.

 

To be fair, they released 2 singles, but both of them were 30 year old songs that had already been released

I agree it's ridiculous though. I'd bet that the vast majority of GNR fans would've rather had an EP with 2 new songs and 2 covers, instead of the AFD box-set.

[MaskingApathy]

1 minute ago, Gordon Comstock said:

 

To be fair, they released 2 singles, but both of them were 30 year old songs that had already been released

I agree it's ridiculous though. I'd bet that the vast majority of GNR fans would've rather had an EP with 2 new songs and 2 covers, instead of the AFD box-set.

Yeah I know, I meant something that's not from before. I mean, how hard would it be to go into the studio for a week or so and bang out a few of those covers they were playing live, and maybe CD and Better? 

[Gordon Comstock]

3 minutes ago, MaskingApathy said:

Yeah I know, I meant something that's not from before. I mean, how hard would it be to go into the studio for a week or so and bang out a few of those covers they were playing live, and maybe CD and Better? 

 

Hardschool, The Seeker, Wichita Lineman, Atlas Shrugged. It would've been pretty easy to release something like that at any point in the last 4 years.

[SlashisGOD]

17 minutes ago, Gordon Comstock said:

 

Hardschool, The Seeker, Wichita Lineman, Atlas Shrugged. It would've been pretty easy to release something like that at any point in the last 4 years.

This is GnR we’re talking about after all. They can’t release one song let alone four.

[GNR_RNR]

39 minutes ago, RussTCB said:

Acoording to the article you posted, only 18% of new music listeners buy new CDs.

Sigh... again this is not what is said by the report. 

The 18% figure is part of "However, only 18% of CD listeners are buying new ones each month. "

That does not mean they don't buy new CD's only that they don't buy new one's every month.

You've misunderstood the data and have made massively incorrect assertions based off of you misunderstanding. Oof.

Based on the available data we can comfortably say that 20%+ of the albums revenue would be made from physical sales. This would very likely be higher due to the older demographics of the GNR fanbase(both casual and hardcore).

As such it does make sense to suspend any planned album rollout (not even saying there was one) in order to ensure they get this revenue.

Now you can disagree with these figures but you're going to need to provide sources to the contrary as you've yet to refute any of these points.

41 minutes ago, Gordon Comstock said:

Can you provide a source for the "established fact" that GNR's older demographic will buy physical media? Because judging from the 5 NITL shows I went to, their demographic ranges from age 20-50, which is a demographic that heavily leans towards streaming.

See the past few pages. GNR's fanbase in comprised of mostly older (over 40) fans and these are in the  demographic that buy physical copies in a higher rate. 

 

 

[RussTCB]

1 minute ago, GNR_RNR said:

Sigh... again this is not what is said by the report. 

The 18% figure is part of "However, only 18% of CD listeners are buying new ones each month. "

That does not mean they don't buy new CD's only that they don't buy new one's every month.

You've misunderstood the data and have made massively incorrect assertions based off of you misunderstanding. Oof.

Based on the available data we can comfortably say that 20%+ of the albums revenue would be made from physical sales. This would very likely be higher due to the older demographics of the GNR fanbase(both casual and hardcore).

As such it does make sense to suspend any planned album rollout (not even saying there was one) in order to ensure they get this revenue.

Now you can disagree with these figures but you're going to need to provide sources to the contrary as you've yet to refute any of these points.

Haha, you've got to be joking, right? I don't need to provide any sources because I'm not the one making wild claims and stating my opinion (or probably guess) as fact. You did that, then you were asked to provide a source. Your source actually ended up proving my point. Not sure what else to tell you. 

[Gordon Comstock]

4 minutes ago, GNR_RNR said:

See the past few pages. GNR's fanbase in comprised of mostly older (over 40) fans and these are in the  demographic that buy physical copies in a higher rate.

 

I've read the last few pages, it mostly consists of you claiming your opinions as fact and then having those 'facts' proven wrong

The majority of people who buy CD's are 55+, not just "over 40", and judging from the crowds at NITL shows, the 55+ fans are definitely not the bands main demographic. Lots of GNR fans will buy a new album on CD or vinyl, but the majority will stream/download it. Most people who do buy a physical pressing will have no problem ordering it online. They really wouldn't be losing a significant percentage of revenue, if any, by releasing an album now. It's just another lame excuse.

[Gordon Comstock]

9 minutes ago, GNR_RNR said:

But it stand that GNR would mostly forefeit a fifth of an albums revenue. Why would they do that?

 

There is no evidence that this is the case. How would they be losing 1/5th of their revenue? Did Amazon and Discogs shut down at the same time all the local record stores did? Have bands stopped selling CD's on their official websites?

 

edit: did you delete that comment or was it removed?

Edited April 16, 2020 by Gordon Comstock

[RussTCB]

1 minute ago, Gordon Comstock said:

There is no evidence that this is the case. How would they be losing 1/5th of their revenue? Did Amazon and Discogs shut down at the same time all the local record stores did? Have bands stopped selling CD's on their official websites?

This has already been pointed out as well, along with examples of other artists who are still releasing music currently. The artist list includes Pearl Jam who are every bit as big or bigger than GN'R in today's market. 

[GNR_RNR]

10 minutes ago, Gordon Comstock said:

There is no evidence that this is the case. How would they be losing 1/5th of their revenue? Did Amazon and Discogs shut down at the same time all the local record stores did? Have bands stopped selling CD's on their official websites?

 

7 minutes ago, RussTCB said:

This has already been pointed out as well, along with examples of other artists who are still releasing music currently. The artist list includes Pearl Jam who are every bit as big or bigger than GN'R in today's market. 

You both just don't seem to get it even when proved multiple times to be wrong.

Pray tell why many many acts have delayed their albums? Why do you think they have done this? What could the reason be? Perhaps the loss of sales...

I'd suggest a read of this:

https://www.rollingstone.com/music/music-features/album-delays-caused-by-covid-19-973870/

It's not just the sales, but the lack of available promotion (as mentioned earlier), that's preventing album releases atm.

 

Edited April 16, 2020 by GNR_RNR
additional info

[Voodoochild]

2 hours ago, GNR_RNR said:

No it doesn't? Did you even read it? Should also add it's CD only, so something to take into consideration.

She's relevant at her level but that not really comparable to GNR in terms of album rollout.

Of course the remaster is something to take on board, not that it gives us a concrete impression of how a new record would do, but it gives us an idea of what modern GNR would be capable of. Top 10 album, singles peaking top 5/ top 10 on rock charts. That's not to say they would do that but that would be the projected success expected by the label.

Assuming the 2010 rumour yes it's a different kettle of fish with Slash back. I could see universal shutting down a record to protect ticket sales. Many tour have been sunk by a poor accompanying album (Katy Perry and Witness springs to mind).

 

Already provided a source for this, feel free to disagree with it or provide a source to the contrary.

Going off of the RIAA report (and assuming it holds true for the majority of the world) then 20% of sales revenue can be attributed to physical sales. Why on earth would the label green light an album launch set to give up that money?

Well, first off: yes, I read the YouGov research. Let me reiterate some things: this is a 2018 UK only survey. And it already says people were still buying CDs, but less and less. The ones that buy CDs don't even mean they are buying NEW releases. Less than half still listen to CDs, but that doesn't mean they are still buying CDs either.

Also, their methodology requires an app where people share their opinion about whatever to get credits/money. This is just my opinion, but I wouldn't consider this as a real insight in the market. But the link you provided is literally the 1st one to show up on Google, so yeah, there's that.

Concrete data about this is kinda hard. I provided RIAA's market provided data from US in 2019 (and that was 10% for physical sales, not 20% as you claimed above), but the worldwide figure is only from 2018 (25% back then, down 10% from 2017). YouGov's research is also from 2018, but limited to UK.

Again, in two years a lot has changed in the music industry. Spotify growth in 2019 was roughly 64 million monthly users, based on quaterly reports. https://www.statista.com/statistics/367739/spotify-global-mau/. Sure we're not even talking about other over-the-top services like Google Music/YouTube, Apple Music, Deezer, Tidal or even piracy. Obviously, we're not counting on the impacts of covid-19 too - even if people can still buy CDs on Amazon, there's still other expenses in priority. 

So yeah, in 16th April 2020, I doubt any label would really consider that 20% of the revenue would come from physical sales. And again, the company wouldn't have to give up on money. It's just that is not relevant anymore to make a decision.

Like I said before, I mentioned Fiona because it's one artist I like, I'm sure there's others out there with bigger appeal. But the album rollout would be the same: her online release will be available tomorrow on every single streaming service, even on Soundcloud. 

 

 

[Sweersa]

Let's not forget the international market. In some places, VHS tapes are all the rage and just coming into common use. The Compact Disc is no exception to this.

[GNR_RNR]

35 minutes ago, Voodoochild said:

Well, first off: yes, I read the YouGov research. Let me reiterate some things: this is a 2018 UK only survey. And it already says people were still buying CDs, but less and less. The ones that buy CDs don't even mean they are buying NEW releases. Less than half still listen to CDs, but that doesn't mean they are still buying CDs either.

Also, their methodology requires an app where people share their opinion about whatever to get credits/money. This is just my opinion, but I wouldn't consider this as a real insight in the market. But the link you provided is literally the 1st one to show up on Google, so yeah, there's that.

Concrete data about this is kinda hard. I provided RIAA's market provided data from US in 2019 (and that was 10% for physical sales, not 20% as you claimed above), but the worldwide figure is only from 2018 (25% back then, down 10% from 2017). YouGov's research is also from 2018, but limited to UK.

Again, in two years a lot has changed in the music industry. Spotify growth in 2019 was roughly 64 million monthly users, based on quaterly reports. https://www.statista.com/statistics/367739/spotify-global-mau/. Sure we're not even talking about other over-the-top services like Google Music/YouTube, Apple Music, Deezer, Tidal or even piracy. Obviously, we're not counting on the impacts of covid-19 too - even if people can still buy CDs on Amazon, there's still other expenses in priority. 

So yeah, in 16th April 2020, I doubt any label would really consider that 20% of the revenue would come from physical sales. And again, the company wouldn't have to give up on money. It's just that is not relevant anymore to make a decision.

Like I said before, I mentioned Fiona because it's one artist I like, I'm sure there's others out there with bigger appeal. But the album rollout would be the same: her online release will be available tomorrow on every single streaming service, even on Soundcloud. 

 

 

Yes it's a UK only study, that's where YouGov operates. A useful insight regardless into how age impacts purchasing habits of a certain media.

As GNR has an older fanbase we would see larger volumes of physical purchases (common sense really).

On top of this habits vary hugely by country. The US is very low for physical sales while Europe tends much much higher. 

The size of revenue generated from physical sales represents a solid reason to not release an album at the moment, see the Rolling Stone article I linked to for a decent breakdown.

Many artists have delayed albums for reasons covered in this thread, makes sense GNR would fall under that banner if they had an album to release. 

[Gordon Comstock]

6 minutes ago, GNR_RNR said:

 

You both just don't seem to get it even when proved multiple times to be wrong.

Pray tell why many many acts have delayed their albums? Why do you think they have done this? What could the reason be? Perhaps the loss of sales...

 

Probably because they can't tour their new albums, which is how they make most of their money.

It's not like people have stopped buying albums, quite the opposite actually. Digital album sales are the highest they've been in months, and while physical sales continue to fall, big names and legacy acts still sell a decent amount of CD's and records. (like Pearl Jam or The Weeknd)

Roughly 22% of first-week sales for Pearl Jam's new album were from vinyl, so it's not like quarantine has greatly effected peoples ability to buy albums. They weren't lining up outside record stores before all this started. It's a fact that more people buy items online than in-store, so I'm not sure where you've 'proven me wrong multiple times'. All you've done is avoid the question.

Again, how would they be losing 20% of their revenue?

[guitarpatch]

19 minutes ago, GNR_RNR said:

Yes it's a UK only study, that's where YouGov operates. A useful insight regardless into how age impacts purchasing habits of a certain media.

As GNR has an older fanbase we would see larger volumes of physical purchases (common sense really).

On top of this habits vary hugely by country. The US is very low for physical sales while Europe tends much much higher. 

The size of revenue generated from physical sales represents a solid reason to not release an album at the moment, see the Rolling Stone article I linked to for a decent breakdown.

Many artists have delayed albums for reasons covered in this thread, makes sense GNR would fall under that banner if they had an album to release. 

While all of these stats certainly play into factors for releasing/not releasing music for streaming purposes during this time, we just don’t know the final cost breakdown that it takes for this GNR release. It’s an incomplete picture to say one way or another. They very well may need physical sales to make the numbers worth while or maybe they don’t. We can argue all day about that 

UMG won’t release an album right now if they feel it won’t recoup its cost or lose out on a chunk of revenue. GNR won’t release an album if it doesn’t benefit their agenda.  Whether that’s getting their advance, seeing a bump in royalties, help facilitate future touring revenue, etc..  

What works for one artist, may not work for another. None of their contracts are the same. None of their careers are at the same point and very few have the same aspirations

[GNR_RNR]

1 minute ago, Gordon Comstock said:

 

Probably because they can't tour their new albums, which is how they make most of their money.

It's not like people have stopped buying albums, quite the opposite actually. Digital album sales are the highest they've been in months, and while physical sales continue to fall, big names and legacy acts still sell a decent amount of CD's and records. (like Pearl Jam or The Weeknd)

Roughly 22% of first-week sales for Pearl Jam's new album were from vinyl, so it's not like quarantine has greatly effected peoples ability to buy albums. They weren't lining up outside record stores before all this started. It's a fact that more people buy items online than in-store, so I'm not sure where you've 'proven me wrong multiple times'. All you've done is avoid the question.

Again, how would they be losing 20% of their revenue?

The rolling stone article lays all of this out for you. I suggest giving it a read.

20% is an estimate, but it will vary by region. US has low physical sales while there are many places where they are much higher.

Loss of revenue combined with inability to market the album means it would be foolish for GNR to release an album at present. 

As streaming in general has taken a hit it really doesn't make sense to release anything, on top of the damage that would be done by lack of physical sales.. 

Again as already established numerous times there's a reason that so many albums are delayed. 

1 minute ago, guitarpatch said:

UMG won’t release an album right now if they feel it won’t recoup its cost or lose out on a chunk of revenue. GNR won’t release an album if it doesn’t benefit their agenda.  Whether that’s getting their advance, seeing a bump in royalties, help facilitate future touring revenue, etc..  

Very true, it makes no sense for either party to release an album at this time.

[RussTCB]

anything to justify GNR not releasing an album. 

[gavgnr]

It never makes sense at any time for GnR

[Tom-Ass]

5 hours ago, Sweersa said:

While CD didn't do as well as many thought or hoped, wasn't it still a commercial success? It went platinum at least once.

Pretty much because the demand was way over judged.. All the stores bought way too many copies initially which greatly boosted sales. Most of those copies ended up in the 99 cent bin and I highly doubt there was any retailer that had to refill their supply because they sold out of copies.

[guitarpatch]

Just now, gavgnr said:

It never makes sense at any time for GnR

Truth. I just don’t get why people think all of sudden this time period will/should be when they finally decide to let something go. Lucy doesn’t even have the football out for Charlie Brown to kick 

1 minute ago, Tom-Ass said:

Pretty much because the demand was way over judged.. All the stores bought way too many copies initially which greatly boosted sales. Most of those copies ended up in the 99 cent bin and I highly doubt there was any retailer that had to refill their supply because they sold out of copies.

Best Buy bought the copies and didn’t know how to market an album with 1/3 of the stores that Walmart had. thats just one of many things that went wrong, not including the band. Total shitshow all around 

[GNR_RNR]

2 minutes ago, Tom-Ass said:

Pretty much because the demand was way over judged.. All the stores bought way too many copies initially which greatly boosted sales. Most of those copies ended up in the 99 cent bin and I highly doubt there was any retailer that had to refill their supply because they sold out of copies.

It will never not be funny that Axl spent 14 years on an album and then disappeared in a cloud of dust when it came time to promote it.

Just because he didn't like the artwork.

How did UMG not sue the hell out of him for that?

[Gordon Comstock]

2 minutes ago, GNR_RNR said:

The rolling stone article lays all of this out for you. I suggest giving it a read.

20% is an estimate, but it will vary by region. US has low physical sales while there are many places where they are much higher.

Loss of revenue combined with inability to market the album means it would be foolish for GNR to release an album at present. 

As streaming in general has taken a hit it really doesn't make sense to release anything, on top of the damage that would be done by lack of physical sales.. 

Again as already established numerous times there's a reason that so many albums are delayed.

 

What lack of physical sales? Quarantine has not stopped people from buying albums, at least not from established/popular bands. The lost revenue would be from touring, and since NITL made half a billion dollars, I don't think that's really an issue for GNR. Plus their last few albums (UYI, TSI and CD) were all released while the band was not touring.

GNR doesn't need huge promotion - post something on twitter, maybe use a song in a beer commercial or something, and send a single to radio. Look at someone like Eminem, who has a slightly younger yet generally comparable fanbase to GNR. He doesn't really tour and his only promotion for his newest album was a tweet announcing its release, and it's still sold over 700,000 copies in the US. The Rolling Stone article you linked doesn't mention any artists that are as popular as the GNR brand, and let's not pretend GNR were going to do The Tonight Show and radio appearances as promotion in a normal circumstance anyway. Keep grasping at straws, though.

[GNR_RNR]

7 minutes ago, Gordon Comstock said:

 

What lack of physical sales? Quarantine has not stopped people from buying albums, at least not from established/popular bands. The lost revenue would be from touring, and since NITL made half a billion dollars, I don't think that's really an issue for GNR. Plus their last few albums (UYI, TSI and CD) were all released while the band was not touring.

GNR doesn't need huge promotion - post something on twitter, maybe use a song in a beer commercial or something, and send a single to radio. Look at someone like Eminem, who has a slightly younger yet generally comparable fanbase to GNR. He doesn't really tour and his only promotion for his newest album was a tweet announcing its release, and it's still sold over 700,000 copies in the US. The Rolling Stone article you linked doesn't mention any artists that are as popular as the GNR brand, and let's not pretend GNR were going to do The Tonight Show and radio appearances as promotion in a normal circumstance anyway. Keep grasping at straws, though.

While amazon and online stores make up a decent chunk of physical sales they are not the only option. Add in logistical issues caused by a pandemic and you can see why this would cause issues,

GNR would absolutely need promotion for a new album. Hell people still ask if Slash is back in the band!

As for Eminem he's been doing the surprise drops for the last couple albums due to the massive failure of revival. I do think a surprise drop is cool as it prevents people getting bored with an album era before release. But for any new release I'd like to see it hyped up.

GNR would absolutely be made to do interviews and the like if they wanted to release a new album. This isn't the 90's where GNR have all the power the label will make sure to put sufficient promotion as a stipulation of allowing another GNR album out the door (especially after how Axl ghosted any promotion for CD).