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@action I don't think you are over reacting at all. There's still too much they don't know about this virus, and that is the bottom line. Even now The Who is saying the death rate is higher than previously thought and reported.  So at this point in time I wouldn't put my safety in the reliability of those charts. And there is conflicting information in the media, not only from different sources, but even in the same articles...I just read in Seattle that a whole family is in the hospital with it but there is no one in "serious" condition.. next line they say the father is in the ICU with severe respiratory complications, so that seems pretty 'serious' to me! 

Until they know more, or the spread of it stops, (which it seems to be doing the opposite of right now), you are in the right to do whatever you think you need to do to keep your family safe. No matter how much mocking you may receive. 

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What the fuck do they know? If I'm looking for advice from a rock band on how viruses are transmitted I will ask Queen thank you very much.

The mother of my aunt just died from covid19 in the Netherlands. No funeral and she can't go there. This situation is so fucked up.

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i was thinking of letting my son attend school from monday onwards, but today he got a fever and heavy coughing. He hasn't left home for a whole week, and me and my wife aren't sick. So I don't know what he has. It's not a "dry" cough though, and he has no problem breathing. It's more of a "slime cough". Gave him some nurofen and he's better now. He's been coughing a couple of days now, but today with fever. So the doctor came two days ago and he got a receipt to stay at home for two days (I admit, it was somewhat of a faked disease to have a warrant to keep him home), but from today on this warrant became genuine anyway. No school would admit my son in his condition now.

italy is closing all schools, belgium thinks this is not necessary. We'll see what they say by friday.

If my son is cured by monday, I'm thinking of letting him attend school, but you never know how things turn out till then. the government may close school anyway.

What a twisted, depressing, worthless society we live in.

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A Dr doing home visits... if one were concerned about the threat of a virus spreading perhaps having exposer to people who are driving around to check on people with coughs is counter-intuitive??

(Please do not deny a child access to healthcare - this is not my point!)

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8 minutes ago, soon said:

A Dr doing home visits... if one were concerned about the threat of a virus spreading perhaps curtailing exposer to people who are driving around to check on people with coughs is counter-intuitive??

(Please do not deny a child access to healthcare - this is not my point!)

if I want to put my decision of leaving my kid at home in practise, i "have" to get a warrant by a doctor. Otherwise, the big brother police will ask annoying questions and eventually take me for a criminal. belgium is a bureaucary. got a warrant? you can pass. no warrant? off you go, we'll take care of your child from now on.

the madness we live in...

Going with my kid "to" a doctor, sitting in a waiting room full of sick people is pointless for what I want to achieve; to protect my kid. waiting rooms are places where sick people gather, which is exactly what I'm trying to avoid here. the doctor has to come.

fuck all of this. I hate this fucking world. I shouldn't even need to show a warrant for fucks sake. Who's his parent, me or some douchebag pencil pusher? 

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1 hour ago, Whiskey Rose said:

@action I don't think you are over reacting at all. There's still too much they don't know about this virus, and that is the bottom line. Even now The Who is saying the death rate is higher than previously thought and reported.  So at this point in time I wouldn't put my safety in the reliability of those charts. And there is conflicting information in the media, not only from different sources, but even in the same articles...I just read in Seattle that a whole family is in the hospital with it but there is no one in "serious" condition.. next line they say the father is in the ICU with severe respiratory complications, so that seems pretty 'serious' to me! 

Until they know more, or the spread of it stops, (which it seems to be doing the opposite of right now), you are in the right to do whatever you think you need to do to keep your family safe. No matter how much mocking you may receive. 

arguing with scientists is like bashing your head to the wall.

"look at this website", they say. "see, it contains proof of this or that, the experts are all in agreement bla bla bla".

try to use your common sense against such reasoning.

I'm wrong, because a website tells me I'm wrong. because an expert makes some political statement.

because experts can't be wrong, right?

having said that, there isn't much room for debate anyway. there's the numbers, there's the experts, and then there is your own eyes and ears that contradict much of what they say. There is no point in arguing, and I don't want this post to be the start of another pointless yes or no game. I am toroughly confused and I just want this epidemy to be over and done with. It's genuinly wearing me down, and I'm not even infected.

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3 hours ago, action said:

arguing with scientists is like bashing your head to the wall.

"look at this website", they say. "see, it contains proof of this or that, the experts are all in agreement bla bla bla".

try to use your common sense against such reasoning.

I'm wrong, because a website tells me I'm wrong. because an expert makes some political statement.

because experts can't be wrong, right?

having said that, there isn't much room for debate anyway. there's the numbers, there's the experts, and then there is your own eyes and ears that contradict much of what they say. There is no point in arguing, and I don't want this post to be the start of another pointless yes or no game. I am toroughly confused and I just want this epidemy to be over and done with. It's genuinly wearing me down, and I'm not even infected.

Your posts so far have been attempts to rationalize and justify your fear and paranoia about the severity of the outbreak. 

Others choose not to give into those emotions and instead choose to respect and accept what medical experts are saying.

It doesn't mean that things can't change or experts might be wrong.  Common sense that's based on nothing more than fear and emotion isn't common sense.  

The fact that this virus is wearing you down when you don't even have it speaks to your paranoia and less so about the virus itself.  No one is going to fault you for being concerned.  Almost all of us are.  But it's pointless trying to get others to accept your fear because you choose not to accept what medical experts are saying.  Also keep in mind that many of your posts have included erroneous information.  

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I may be drunk, but i’m not concerned at all. Even if I get infected, which I’m sure wont happen, I won’t be worried because it will be like having the flu I reckon, I’m under 40 and healthy.

i live in a country with over 17 million people and so far there are 38 cases. im more likely to get hit by a car than anything else. People need to relax.

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1 hour ago, EvanG said:

I may be drunk, but i’m not concerned at all. Even if I get infected, which I’m sure wont happen, I won’t be worried because it will be like having the flu I reckon, I’m under 40 and healthy.

i live in a country with over 17 million people and so far there are 38 cases. im more likely to get hit by a car than anything else. People need to relax.

Well yes but the odds of getting hit by a car stay constant whereas the odds of catching a virus will multiply as it spreads. 

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3 hours ago, EvanG said:

I may be drunk, but i’m not concerned at all. Even if I get infected, which I’m sure wont happen, I won’t be worried because it will be like having the flu I reckon, I’m under 40 and healthy.

i live in a country with over 17 million people and so far there are 38 cases. im more likely to get hit by a car than anything else. People need to relax.

This is a selfish position. If you are over 80 the death rate leaps dramatically. Anyone who has elderly members of family is very concerned about this virus proliferating.

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8 hours ago, action said:

arguing with scientists is like bashing your head to the wall.

I don't think arguing with scientists are necessarily any different than arguing with anyone else. But arguing with someone with facts while you have none, is probably like bashing your head against the wall...as it should be.

 

8 hours ago, action said:

"look at this website", they say. "see, it contains proof of this or that, the experts are all in agreement bla bla bla".

try to use your common sense against such reasoning.

Well, it really shows the limitations of "common sense," don't it? I actually don't think the denial of facts is as "common" as you would have it, and there is certainly no "sense" in it.

 

8 hours ago, action said:

I'm wrong, because a website tells me I'm wrong. because an expert makes some political statement.

Well, you were wrong in arguing covid-19 that it is dangerous to let your child attend school because you couldn't read a graph properly. And yes, you are wrong because all the data we have tells us so. This has nothing to with with the data being presented on a webpage, it could just as well have been presented in a paper, on a stone tablet, or written in the sky. Facts are facts, regardless of where you find them, and so far all the data we have suggests that this disease isn't dangerous to healthy children. 

 

8 hours ago, action said:

because experts can't be wrong, right?

This is not about anyone being infallible (that's a word that means "without mistakes"). This is about who you believe, people who have studied how this disease affects children and some guy with "common sense."

 

8 hours ago, action said:

having said that, there isn't much room for debate anyway. there's the numbers, there's the experts, and then there is your own eyes and ears that contradict much of what they say. 

What has your eyes and ear seen and heard that contradict the claim that children are not in any grave danger from this disease? Have you actually SEEN any children with covid-19? Or HEARD them cough? Or has this really nothing to do with what you have seen or heard but rather with you just having decided that the disease is dangerous to kids and then being immune to any facts that contradicts this belief?

 

8 hours ago, action said:

I am toroughly confused

The data doesn't leave much room for confusion. Again, it is early days and I am sure this disease has a fatality rate for kids higher than 0.000, but still, it doesn't seem to be much more dangerous to healthy kids than seasonal flu, so all your confusion and fear is just misplaced and a waste of time.

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36 minutes ago, DieselDaisy said:

This is a selfish position. If you are over 80 the death rate leaps dramatically. Anyone who has elderly members of family is very concerned about this virus proliferating.

I think it is obvious he was talking about not being concerned over his own situation. That doesn't rule out that he could be concerned for others less healthy and vigorous as himself.

Seems like every country is trying to isolate each case as they are found, stemming the spread of the disease. I feat this might be a lost cause at this point. There are so many people who have it, it is simply impossible to have control over all of them and who they have been in contact with. Here in Norway we have quite many infected per capita (probably due to us recently having winter break with many Norwegians going to Italy for skiing vacation) and the health authorities have admitted that their strategy is not so much to stop the spread, but try to slow it down to the health care systems can cope with the number of infected. That being said, we don't have any with severe symptoms, all are mild.

It could very well be that this is entirely unstoppable by now, and that it will be like seasonal flu: a virus that will be ubiqutous (I hate this word!!) and that we will all be exposed to it. If so, we might be looking at fatalities in the millions. But again, the data from China is really promising, and indicates world-wide fatalities of less than 100k.

If this becomes a fixed disease from now on, the question is of course to what extent we can develop immunity to it. Will there be as many infected every year from now, or will we quickly develop enough immunity to make it a very rare disease? Exciting :)

 

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2 minutes ago, SoulMonster said:

I think it is obvious he was talking about not being concerned over his own situation. That doesn't rule out that he could be concerned for others less healthy and vigorous as himself.

He mentioned ''people'' needing ''to relax''. I can only interpret that as broadening beyond his own personal situation.

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6 hours ago, downzy said:

Your posts so far have been attempts to rationalize and justify your fear and paranoia about the severity of the outbreak. 

Others choose not to give into those emotions and instead choose to respect and accept what medical experts are saying.

It doesn't mean that things can't change or experts might be wrong.  Common sense that's based on nothing more than fear and emotion isn't common sense.  

The fact that this virus is wearing you down when you don't even have it speaks to your paranoia and less so about the virus itself.  No one is going to fault you for being concerned.  Almost all of us are.  But it's pointless trying to get others to accept your fear because you choose not to accept what medical experts are saying.  Also keep in mind that many of your posts have included erroneous information.  

it's more than paranoia.

the latest developments (taken from a belgian news source https://www.hln.be/nieuws/buitenland/live-acht-besmettingen-in-wevelgem-na-skireis-noodtoestand-in-californie~a55a6f7a/:

- japan puts everyone from south korea and china in quarantaine

- hospital workers in den bosch and eindhoven infected

- airplanes flybe stay at the ground

- 145 new infections in south korea after the previous report

- ralph lauren cancels fashion show

- second death in australia

- dutch parliament concerned about health of care personell

- australia closes border for people out of japan, south korea and china

- south korea: 3 deaths and 438 new infections reported

- large dance festival in miami canceled

- new infections in china are on the rise again

- state of urgency in california after 53 infections

- supply of iphones is halting duo to corona virus

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1 hour ago, DieselDaisy said:

He mentioned ''people'' needing ''to relax''. I can only interpret that as broadening beyond his own personal situation.

Ah, yeah, you are right. But I am sure he didn't mean that people vulnerable to this disease should relax, but rather ordinary people who are stockpiling food, holding their children home from school and wear face masks.

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10 minutes ago, action said:

it's more than paranoia.

the latest developments (taken from a belgian news source https://www.hln.be/nieuws/buitenland/live-acht-besmettingen-in-wevelgem-na-skireis-noodtoestand-in-californie~a55a6f7a/:

- japan puts everyone from south korea and china in quarantaine

- hospital workers in den bosch and eindhoven infected

- airplanes flybe stay at the ground

- 145 new infections in south korea after the previous report

- ralph lauren cancels fashion show

- second death in australia

- dutch parliament concerned about health of care personell

- australia closes border for people out of japan, south korea and china

- south korea: 3 deaths and 438 new infections reported

- large dance festival in miami canceled

- new infections in china are on the rise again

- state of urgency in california after 53 infections

- supply of iphones is halting duo to corona virus

I think the most important piece of data is number of infected in China, and how this number has changed, and the number of infected outside of China, and how this has changed.

Fact is (if you believe their reports, which I do) that the number of infected in China has fallen a lot. Basically, what we are seeing in China is a diseases that is petering out. Not in the sense that it will be gone, but in a sense that the number of new infected per day will stay at a very low level. 

Another fact is that outside of China, the number of infected is increasing quite rapidly. 

The reason for this difference is likely that the disease started out in China and that have been through the first stages of rapid spread, and that the disease is now either slowing down because there aren't many susceptible hosts available, or because the Chinese method of controlling the spread is working. Whereas outside of China we are experiencing what China experienced at the onset of the epidemic: rapid spread.

The positive here is of course that likely the development of the disease will be the same outside of China as in China (unless the Chinese government is doing something we can't replicate), and if so, we would expect the epidemic here in Europe to start slowing down in a few weeks, and the number of deaths at that time to be in the low thousands.

These are the fact that you should focus on.

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To continue my point. This graph shows the number of active cases in te world:

uten_n56.png

As you can see, the disease increased rapidly at the beginning of the epidemic in China, but then, around Feb 19, it started to decrease. This is when China started to get control. Since then the number of infective people in the world has decreased. But if you look closely at the end of the line, it seems that the decrease is stopping, it is flattening out, and it will likely start to increase again as the number of infected people outside of China becomes substantial.

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48 minutes ago, SoulMonster said:

To continue my point. This graph shows the number of active cases in te world:

uten_n56.png

As you can see, the disease increased rapidly at the beginning of the epidemic in China, but then, around Feb 19, it started to decrease. This is when China started to get control. Since then the number of infective people in the world has decreased. But if you look closely at the end of the line, it seems that the decrease is stopping, it is flattening out, and it will likely start to increase again as the number of infected people outside of China becomes substantial.

I read reports that infections in china are on the rise again.

which, if true, is also uncommon with "common" viral infections (feel free to correct me if i'm wrong)

I also read, an 8 month baby is now infected in australia :(

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17 minutes ago, action said:

I read reports that infections in china are on the rise again.

which, if true, is also uncommon with "common" viral infections (feel free to correct me if i'm wrong)

I also read, an 8 month baby is now infected in australia :(

No, there were only 160 new cases in China last day. It doesn't seem to be rising. But we'll see over the next days. With so small numbers pure coincidences can result in more reported to be infected one day than the day before. We need to see tis happening again over some days to confidently say it is rising.

Yes, that would be uncommon, because usually the virus will infect everyone susceptible, and those who have been infected once will develop immunity, meaning that there will be less susceptible people for the virus to infect as the epidemic progresses. Which is exactly what we have seen in China so far.

What could be happening now is that the virus is mutating. I talked about this earlier. This is what happens to seasonal flu - every year we get a new variant that is able to infect new people and immunity towards last year's strain is only partial. The corona virus is now reported to have mutated into two forms (S and L). One that is more serious than the other in terms of fatalities. I don't know if the infection rate between these two forms are different, but if so that could explain any unexpected epidemic patterns.

As I have said, it is only a mater of time before a child gets infected and a child dies. Most likely the baby has some other illness already making it more susceptible. And hopefully the symptoms are mild.

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22 hours ago, Dazey said:

People are really getting a bit silly about this now. One of the guys in the office at work was complaining of a slight sore throat so he's been sent home for the rest of the week. :lol: Fuck me I wish I'd thought of that. :lol: 

The worlds in a fuckin' uproar, people are dying and my mans tryna blag a day off :lol: 

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8 hours ago, EvanG said:

I may be drunk, but i’m not concerned at all. Even if I get infected, which I’m sure wont happen, I won’t be worried because it will be like having the flu I reckon, I’m under 40 and healthy.

i live in a country with over 17 million people and so far there are 38 cases. im more likely to get hit by a car than anything else. People need to relax.

Im more concerned about if they cancel the Cheltenham festival next week because of it.

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14 minutes ago, SoulMonster said:

It is just a combination of scientific curiosity coupled with my disdain for humanity. 

this can not possibly be "the real you". 

I wonder, who is the real soulmonster?

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6 hours ago, DieselDaisy said:

This is a selfish position. If you are over 80 the death rate leaps dramatically. Anyone who has elderly members of family is very concerned about this virus proliferating.

I was speaking for myself and that I am not concerned.

And I do think some people need to be more relaxed about this because they are acting like the apocalypse is upon us. Seriously.

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