Jump to content

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 6.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

What the fuck do they know? If I'm looking for advice from a rock band on how viruses are transmitted I will ask Queen thank you very much.

The mother of my aunt just died from covid19 in the Netherlands. No funeral and she can't go there. This situation is so fucked up.

Posted Images

5 minutes ago, downzy said:

"But so far, scientists say, it looks like SARS-CoV-2 probably induces immunity like other coronaviruses. That means that the human body will probably retain a memory of the virus for at least a few years and should be protected from reinfection, at least in the short-term."

You can't say something is a fact and the reference something that says probably.

Nor does it address my other criticisms relating to duration of immunity.  As noted at the end of the above quote, it's still unknown how long any immunity or protection achieved will last. 

I think you misunderstood, or I misworded my last post. When I said "this is true, in fact", I was referring to your comment, which I quoted. I agree where you said, "that makes zero sense". Because it "doesn't" make much sense that people aren't as sick the second time around. But that's what is viewed. Scientists are investigating why that happens, even if it makes no sense.

In both my previous posts I made it clear that the effects of T-cells aren't quite understood by scientists yet.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, action said:

I think you misunderstood, or I misworded my last post. When I said "this is true, in fact", I was referring to your comment, which I quoted. I agree where you said, "that makes zero sense". Because it "doesn't" make much sense that people aren't as sick the second time around. But that's what is viewed. Scientists are investigating why that happens, even if it makes no sense.

In both my previous posts I made it clear that the effects of T-cells aren't quite understood by scientists yet.

Sorry about that. Apologies.  

I'm just so use to responding to DD arguing with me in this thread that I'm inclined to think most people are taking issue with my posts :P  

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, DieselDaisy said:

By per million the USA is actually doing rather well,

EX6x2SWXkAEEBh0?format=png&name=small

Weaknesses in comparing countries aside, if you sort the entire list of countries -- and not just those in the graph above -- by death per capita (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries) you will see that all the selected countries in your graph (excluding Germany) are really not doing very well. But if you had included Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Norway, Denmark, Finland, Switzerland, Austria, Greece, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Turkey, Estonia, and many more, to make a more representative selection, USA would fall among those countries with the poorest stats.

Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, DieselDaisy said:

I know all that but in the absence of certifiable and universally agreed statistics, it is graphs such as that that are the best we have to go on. 

But it isn't. In at least two previous posts have I mentioned EUROMOMO which looks at excess deaths in various countries: https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/ (they have updated their layout - yay!)

Granted, this is for Europe only but the methodology is sound and provides a more accurate method for comparing deaths between countries.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, action said:

it is believed a second infection won't be as severe as the first one, generally speaking. EVEN if you didn't develop many antibodies. 

Hmm. The thing here is that very few people have been infected, so it doesn't matter that much (in regards to severity of future waves) to what extent those who have been infected have developed immunity. As long as the vast majority of people has not been exposed to the disease, factors like social distancing, healthcare capacity, travelling, etc, is much more important than the degree of obtained immunity among the few who have been infected. Will we be able or willing to implement the same severe restrictions for a second wave as we did for the first? That's the really important question and which will decided how hard it hits us.

Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, SoulMonster said:

Hmm. The thing here is that very few people have been infected, so it doesn't matter that much (in regards to severity of future waves) to what extent those who have been infected have developed immunity. As long as the vast majority of people has not been exposed to the disease, factors like social distancing, healthcare capacity, travelling, etc, is much more important than the degree of obtained immunity among the few who have been infected. Will we be able or willing to implement the same severe restrictions for a second wave as we did for the first? That's the really important question and which will decided how hard it hits us.

I think the reaction to the second wave will be largely inspired by how many people end up in hospitals, ie how sick people get from a second infection.

how sick people get from second infection will be a result of

a) how many antibodies they developed

b) how many T-cells

c) other?

Both are not to be confused. a) is detectable in blood, b) is barely detectable.

are you sure that very few have been infected, taking in acount that many people show no symptoms after infection? 

Isn't it, on the other hand, given the drastic measures countries take, and the full hospitals everywhere, far more likely that "many" people have been infected as opposed to "very few"?

Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, action said:

are you sure that very few have been infected, taking in acount that many people show no symptoms after infection? 

Yes, this has been shown in various countries where they have tested a large set of random people. 

It's is sort of the downside of effective social distancing: Yes, it prevents people getting sick, but it also prevents people developing immunity. Basically, we just postpone the infections for later.

Edited by SoulMonster
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
43 minutes ago, SoulMonster said:

Yes, this has been shown in various countries where they have tested a large set of random people. 

It's is sort of the downside of effective social distancing: Yes, it prevents people getting sick, but it also prevents people developing immunity. Basically, we just postpone the infections for later.

I just read that the Spanish government has estimated that only 5 % of their population has been infected so far.

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, SoulMonster said:

I just read that the Spanish government has estimated that only 5 % of their population has been infected so far.

so it will all take longer.

the important thing to remember here, is that the T Cells in the human body can develop a memory of the corona virus, which can reportedly last up to 11 years. It is hard to investigate though,  but it could provide some explanations

as for myself, I got sick a second time. But this time, the symptoms were not as severe. Could mean anything of course, but I know of some people who are in the same boat.

I look at it from afar, one eye a little closed, and I see that it's all good.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Gavin82 said:

Russia confirms 10,000 cases a day for 10 days in a row 

Wow! Covid19 will soon overtake liver disease and falling out of windows as the biggest cause of death in Russia! :lol: 

  • Haha 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, DieselDaisy said:

By per million the USA is actually doing rather well,

EX6x2SWXkAEEBh0?format=png&name=small

 Deutschland über alles however.

In addition to what was mentioned already by others, you can't compare the whole of the USA to Belgium for instance, because Belgium has 11.4 million people while the state of NY alone has 19.4 million. In NY the deaths per million are 1,403, while in Hawaii or Wyoming that number is only 12, bringing down the overall US number, obviously. It's been mentioned before, but if you want to compare, you should compare Belgium to a densely populated state or even city in the US.

Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, DieselDaisy said:

I sometimes feel that there are those desiring the US to have greater deaths in order to prove some political point.

No idea if you meant me as well, but I resent that. This isn't an international competition, I wish there were no deaths at all. It's about pointing out the obvious flaws that a comparison of deaths/million has, without looking at wauys of counting the deaths, where the curve is heading, so at what point in the epidemic countries are, or how densely populated said country is. All these factors count.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Lio said:

No idea if you meant me as well, but I resent that. This isn't an international competition, I wish there were no deaths at all. It's about pointing out the obvious flaws that a comparison of deaths/million has, without looking at wauys of counting the deaths, where the curve is heading, so at what point in the epidemic countries are, or how densely populated said country is. All these factors count.

Haven't you read the stuff about Sweden? There are people outside Sweden literally salivating at the prospect of them failing.

Link to post
Share on other sites

it is clear to anyone that trump is very incompetent. that is not up for debate.

However, I don't really see a disproportionate higher death per inhabitant ratio that would indicate causality of his incompetence with the amount of deaths in the USA, and that is even calculating the different means of counting corona cases.

I just don't feel it.

I'm also not sure what actions trump could have realistically taken, to significantly lower the amount of deaths.

The four countries with the highest death per inhabitant ratios are ironically some of trump's biggest criticasters.

If we're going to push the "trump caused corona crisis in the USA" rationale, then count me out. I think that would be intellectually unreasonable, and highly politically motivated.

 

 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Lio said:

In addition to what was mentioned already by others, you can't compare the whole of the USA to Belgium for instance, because Belgium has 11.4 million people while the state of NY alone has 19.4 million. In NY the deaths per million are 1,403, while in Hawaii or Wyoming that number is only 12, bringing down the overall US number, obviously. It's been mentioned before, but if you want to compare, you should compare Belgium to a densely populated state or even city in the US.

Per 100,000 then,

21170.jpeg

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, action said:

However, I don't really see a disproportionate higher death per inhabitant ratio that would indicate causality of his incompetence with the amount of deaths in the USA, and that is even calculating the different means of counting corona cases.

I just don't feel it.

Again, USA is among the worst countries when we look at deaths per capita, so why can't this be caused by poor leadership? The very fact that different countries have widely varying deaths per capita suggests that a country's response to the pandemic is important. Of course there are other factors that contribute to this, including population density, but it only makes sense to me that a failure to react quickly, a failure to do proper contact tracing, a failure to coordinate resources to treat patients, a failure to ramp up testing capacity early enough, a failure to prepare the population for what is to come, and implying that people should drink bleach, will result in additional deaths. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
49 minutes ago, DieselDaisy said:

Per 100,000 then,

21170.jpeg

Again, if you want to argue that USA is doing well you can't just compare it to countries that do even worse, you have to compare it to every country (well, at least every country with a certain amount of infections) and then it turns out that USA doesn't do very well at all.

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, SoulMonster said:

Again, if you want to argue that USA is doing well you can't just compare it to countries that do even worse, you have to compare it to every country (well, at least every country with a certain amount of infections) and then it turns out that USA doesn't do very well at all.

What you are asking for would be one mammoth graph!! I assume the countries selected have been selected as they have the highest infections. Or perhaps they have been selected because those countries are the top dogs, the dudes haha. Not your ten bob note countries.

Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, SoulMonster said:

Again, USA is among the worst countries when we look at deaths per capita,  

I don't see conclusive proof for this statement

Link to post
Share on other sites

Comparisons without context at this point in time are useless.  

Any graph that currently compares Russia and Brazil to other nations is absurd.

Primary issues with comparisons at this point in time:

- Most nations are at different stages of fighting the outbreak within their own countries.  Comparing Italy to the USA at this present time neglects the fact that the US is numerous weeks behind Italy at this point in terms of where they are on the curve.  Other nations are just beginning to get crushed by the virus (Russia, Brazil).  

- Nations attribute/count deaths differently from one another.  Some nations like Belgium count all unspecified deaths, whether they are tested or not, towards their COVID-19 death count.  Other nations only count people who received a positive diagnosis who later died with the virus towards their COVID-19 death count.  There is no standard measure and as such per capita death comparisons are pointless.

- Many nations can't really be trusted with their totals.  I linked an article yesterday about Mexico that underscores how many nations are grossly underreporting both the number of cases and number of deaths.  Unless Russian people are somehow more immune to the virus than people from other countries, it makes zero sense for Russia to have the third highest number of cases but see COVID-19 related deaths put them at 18th in the world for number of citizen deaths.  It's been reported since the outbreak began that Iran is almost certainly undercounting the number of dead for political reasons.  And China is likely in that category too.  

- Context matters.  Comparing Italy and Spain to the United States in terms of death totals ignores the fact that Italy and Spain had far less time and warning to prepare.  The US saw what was going on in China, Italy, and Spain for weeks and its leader did nothing substantial to prepare for the outbreak that was already underway in his country.  It is indefensible that countries like Brazil, Mexico, and Russia undermined health experts and put their citizens at risk because they chose to ignore the problem despite having weeks longer to prepare than many other nations.  The outbreaks in China, Italy, and Spain should have served as a warning and mobilizing force for every other nation.  Some leaders chose to accept the reality they were in and did the best they could to act appropriately, other's went the other way.  

13 minutes ago, action said:

I don't see conclusive proof for this statement

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/in-the-early-days-of-the-pandemic-the-us-government-turned-down-an-offer-to-manufacture-millions-of-n95-masks-in-america/2020/05/09/f76a821e-908a-11ea-a9c0-73b93422d691_story.html

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.




×
×
  • Create New...