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Stock Market and The Global Economy Thread


Gibsonfender2323

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With the wild week on Wall Street because of the virus. If you have a portfolio and or follow the Global Economy this is the place to talk about it. 

My portfolio is down 19.60% or  $122.92  but I am gonna ride it out not sell. I currently have a share of JP Morgan and a couple of shares Intel which have been great for me

 

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Buy, buy, buy.  If I was playing around in the stock market I would have been buying on Monday. 

I'd be going with Amazon type stuff and who is supplying them with cardboard.  Pharmaceuticals are probably still good.  Housing was on an uptick, it's hard to buy used property most of the time.  Lots of do it yourselfers in those big box stores though.  I'd be looking at who is advertising out there on the social networking most popular sites to get a feel for who's going to take off.  Utilities always seem to be good for those dividend checks but storms and water issues, I'd be looking at natural gas companies.  Any of the tech companies but I see that as risky.  They come and go.  I'd wait to see who makes it, buy it low, get rid of it when it's high and not hold it very long.

Never panic over what the stock market does.  I let the big guys play with my money and tell them how much risk I'm willing to take.  It's a passing interest for me but I don't do it myself.

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I see stocks dropping another 20-50 percent over the next six to twelve months.  China has essentially been shut off from the global economy.  Corporate debt is higher today than it was in 2008.  The stock market has long been overdue for a correction.  We're likely to experience a recession that is both demand and supply induced (something that hasn't happened for a very long time).  

I liquidated 80 percent of my holdings this morning.

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50 minutes ago, downzy said:

I liquidated 80 percent of my holdings this morning.

Should not have done that. Selling during a massive sell off is a big mistake. 
 

May take a while but I am holding out.

Unless you massively need the money selling is the worst thing you can do and it also contributes more to the sell off

Edited by Gibsonfender2323
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When investment confidence returns can people take that opportunity to refocus their investments to green ventures please?

We recently saw a company back out of a major, billions dollar, fossil fuel project because they recognized that Canada didnt have robust and articulated environmental regulations. Even fossil fuel companies are looking to a more suitable future!

And since you'd already be dealing with two of the three "P's" why not go full 'triple bottom line' with your portfolio and also invest in living wage employers? People, Planet, Profit. :headbang:

Get on the cutting edge of growth with eco ventures investments!!

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4 hours ago, Gibsonfender2323 said:

Should not have done that. Selling during a massive sell off is a big mistake. 
 

May take a while but I am holding out.

Unless you massively need the money selling is the worst thing you can do and it also contributes more to the sell off

It all depends. If you think we’re near the bottom then yeah, selling is the bad play. But I don’t. I think we have a long way to go before we hit the bottom. 

Italy just ordered the end of all commerce save for pharmacies and grocery stores.  75 percent of all US business report having their supply chain disrupted because China is now effectively closed off.  Both countries are months ahead of where other developed nations will be in a month or two. Corporate debt is at its highest since 2008.  Many oil and gas companies will likely go bankrupt without a government bailout because they won’t be able to make their next load payment due to oil prices in free fall.  The travel, airline, and hospitality industry will most likely be shuttered for much of 2020. 

Where do you think the stock market will be when the US is announcing infections in the tens or hundreds of thousands per month?

I’m not trying to be pessimistic here but I do see a painful recession coming. The stock market was higher this morning (when I sold) than it will be in three to six to twelve months time.

I could be wrong, in which case I’m out ten percent from my January highs. But I’d rather only be down 10 percent to protect from being down 50-60 percent in three to six months. It’s not wrong to sell during a downturn if you think there’s a lot more down to come. 

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36 minutes ago, downzy said:

It all depends. If you think we’re near the bottom then yeah, selling is the bad play. But I don’t. I think we have a long way to go before we hit the bottom. 

Italy just ordered the end of all commerce save for pharmacies and grocery stores.  75 percent of all US business report having their supply chain disrupted because China is now effectively closed off.  Both countries are months ahead of where other developed nations will be in a month or two. Corporate debt is at its highest since 2008.  Many oil and gas companies will likely go bankrupt without a government bailout because they won’t be able to make their next load payment due to oil prices in free fall.  The travel, airline, and hospitality industry will most likely be shuttered for much of 2020. 

Where do you think the stock market will be when the US is announcing infections in the tens or hundreds of thousands per month?

I’m not trying to be pessimistic here but I do see a painful recession coming. The stock market was higher this morning (when I sold) than it will be in three to six to twelve months time.

I could be wrong, in which case I’m out ten percent from my January highs. But I’d rather only be down 10 percent to protect from being down 50-60 percent in three to six months. It’s not wrong to sell during a downturn if you think there’s a lot more down to come. 

I think there are multiple factors. Italy is a special case because other than Whuan that's ground zero. I need to look at Unemployment and Job Numbers. If they start to slow and the unemployment rate starts rising then I can definitely see a recession coming.  Truth is I know as much as everyone else 

It appears in China the cases are starting to dwindle from an NPR report. Italy is gonna be the hardest hit economically.  But I think a lot of the Virus is exaggerated because of the Weather its gonna peak in a couple of weeks and then start to come down once everything is bloomed 

Biggest indicators will be the March and April job numbers till then the Market will keep going down 4 percent the next day up 4 percent the day after but until we see the unemployment rate  we wont know

Edited by Gibsonfender2323
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30 minutes ago, Gibsonfender2323 said:

Italy is a special case because other than Whuan that's ground zero.

Italy had three documented cases three weeks ago.  The entire country is under lockdown.

The infection has exploded in Iran.  Both are two countries that already had extremely fragile economies.  Do you not think that the fallout from these economies tanking even further will be felt for awhile?  And that's to assume it stops there.

Germany expects 70 percent of its citizens to become infected.  There are preliminary reports that 70 to 150 million Americans will be infected.  The American consumer drives the US economy.  What happens to the US and global economy if the US has to lock down non-emergency commerce?  

32 minutes ago, Gibsonfender2323 said:

It appears in China the cases are starting to dwindle from an NPR report

Yes, new cases are on the downward trend, but at severe economic costs.  And the measures aren't likely to end any time soon.  This virus is spreading all around the globe.  It's not as though China can just stop what it's doing while other nations are dealing with the problem.  They will have to continue to be vigilant at great economic costs while the rest of the globe manages its own outbreaks.

34 minutes ago, Gibsonfender2323 said:

But I think a lot of the Virus is exaggerated because of the Weather its gonna peak in a couple of weeks and then start to come down once everything is bloomed 

We don't know this nor am I willing to risk my entire portfolio on that bet.  Singapore is already proving that the virus can be transferred in warm climates.  I've also seen theories that the virus is at its most infectious at temperatures and humidity higher than what's currently being felt in most of Western Europe and North America, meaning as we get into the warmer and more humid spring/summer season we could see more infected.  Again, there's a lot of information out there, but it's still all speculation at this point.

36 minutes ago, Gibsonfender2323 said:

Biggest indicators will be the March and April job numbers till then the Market will keep going down 4 percent the next day up 4 percent the day after but until we see the unemployment rate  we wont know

I would say that's far too soon of a timeframe.  It's going to be six to twelve months before we get a firm idea of how bad things are going to get.  There's a basic concept in economics call lag time.  Usually large macro-economic events take one year to be fully felt.  If you look at the financial crisis in 2008, it started in early to mid 2008 and the depths weren't felt until at a year later.  

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20 minutes ago, downzy said:

US markets are going to take a beating today. Trump’s European travel ban was met with fierce selling in overnight trading. 

It's almost as if he doesn't have a fucking clue what he's doing. :lol: 

Best comment I've read recently is "you can't gaslight a virus." 

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43 minutes ago, Dazey said:

It's almost as if he doesn't have a fucking clue what he's doing. :lol: 

Best comment I've read recently is "you can't gaslight a virus." 

LOL.

If it were anyone else I would have held my positions. But with Trump Magoo bumbling through this crisis it made my decision easy. 

Too many funny responses from Trump’s address last night from the rightwing twittersphere:

 

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16 minutes ago, Gibson_Guy87 said:

Open 3 hours and it's already down 1,000 points. This is insane.

Down another 1200 points, or almost 10 percent of the market in a single day. 

This will continue until the federal government announces/passes some sort of fiscal stimulus in the hundreds of billions of dollars. And that might not be enough. 

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3 minutes ago, downzy said:

Down another 1200 points, or almost 10 percent of the market in a single day. 

This will continue until the federal government announces/passes some sort of fiscal stimulus in the hundreds of billions of dollars. And that might not be enough. 

Didn't they put regulations in place where if it drops more than something like 12% all trading stops for 15 minutes? We might see that again today, I know they did it on Monday or Tuesday. 

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8 minutes ago, Gibson_Guy87 said:

Didn't they put regulations in place where if it drops more than something like 12% all trading stops for 15 minutes? We might see that again today, I know they did it on Monday or Tuesday. 

Trading has already been halted once today.  I believe if it hits 15 or 20 percent then trading is stopped until the following day. 

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2 hours ago, Crazyman said:

I was too on $SPY until the IV started getting too high to make any significant money/hedge properly. 

I'm curious what dates/strikes/stocks you're buying puts on?

Nice! SPY here too. I did well with a couple short term (one week ahead) puts because I couldn’t easily afford the more expensive ones a month out. I’m very new to options. Now that I have more money in this I’m going to buy one tomorrow that’s about 4-6 weeks out.  Could you tell me what you mean by the IV getting too high and not being able to make significant money?
 

I’m hoping the market has a slight bounce tomorrow from people trying to buy today’s dip followed by a horrible Monday.

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