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The US Politics/Elections Thread 2.0


downzy

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6 hours ago, Dazey said:

I'm more and more convinced now that he's 100% going to run again in 2024 and most likely going to win. Given all the efforts currently being made by GOP state legislatures to clear the road blocks that stopped him from stealing it in 2020 it’s going to be a massive shitshow at the very least. 

I never believed he would run again, let alone there was a chance he’d win. I still think his health or the law would catch up to him.  But now I’m not so confident.

The biggest risk for Biden outside of his own health is where the country is in 2024 with respect to the pandemic and the economy.  But he also needs legislative wins. Failure to get at least the infrastructure bill passed and little done with what progressives want in the reconciliation bill will decimate enthusiasm by Democrats. I still think it’s a tall order for Trump, especially after what happened on Jan 6th. I think that day killed any open mindedness some might have had for him.  But I no longer put him winning in 2024 outside the realm of possibility. 

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12 minutes ago, downzy said:

I never believed he would run again, let alone there was a chance he’d win. I still think his health or the law would catch up to him.  But now I’m not so confident.

The biggest risk for Biden outside of his own health is where the country is in 2024 with respect to the pandemic and the economy.  But he also needs legislative wins. Failure to get at least the infrastructure bill passed and little done with what progressives want in the reconciliation bill will decimate enthusiasm by Democrats. I still think it’s a tall order for Trump, especially after what happened on Jan 6th. I think that day killed any open mindedness some might have had for him.  But I no longer put him winning in 2024 outside the realm of possibility. 

Bill Maher's been banging on about this for years but he's not been wrong on anything Trump related yet so I think it's a very real fear.

 

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2 hours ago, Dazey said:

Bill Maher's been banging on about this for years but he's not been wrong on anything Trump related yet so I think it's a very real fear.

 

Yeah, I saw this last week.  And yeah, it does share the shit out of me :P

That said, I remember watching Maher right after Trump won in 2016 where he claimed that Trump's win meant democracy in the US was over, that the country would never be able to remove Trump from office through either legal mechanisms or the vote.  I think his argument was that giving someone this corrupt that much power would ensure that the person would never give up that power. 

So he was wrong, to an extent.

And a lot can happen.

I think his scenario only works if 2024 resembles 2000, where one or two states determine the presidential outcome.  I don't think it works if it requires Republicans overturning numerous state elections.  And those individual state elections would have to be really close (closer than Arizona or Georgia).  And while nothing would surprise me about the US anymore, I'm still willing to bet that Trump in 2024 is still as unpopular as Trump is now.  Never mind he won't have Twitter to use as a blow horn.

So while I think anything is possible, I think the conditions have changed enough where a Trump winning again, without the advantage of incumbency, is less likely.  Democrats won't do themselves any favours if they don't keep the economy greased for the next several years by passing the infastructure bill and some portion of the reconciliation bill, but January 6th is one hell of a campaign add against Trump.  Oh, and the needless death of hundreds of thousands of Americans due to Trump's incompetent handling of covid-19.  We'll see where the country is in 2024 with the economy and covid-19 and before we start thinking about trying to hitch-hike outside of SpaceX.  

 

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I get why the progressives want to fund their social programs for ten years, but considering that’s not what’s going to happen, they should cut the $3.5 trillion by a third to meet Manchin’s ceiling of $1.5 trillion and fund all the programs for three years (though some likely wouldn’t get going, like pre-k, for a few years out).

Make Republicans defend their votes in their next congress trying to slash or cut the programs. Turn the 2024 presidential election a campaign on whether America wants to get rid of widely popular programs.  Best way to motivate voters is to give them something and then threaten or have it taken away. 

That is of course if Democrats have figured out how to actually play politics. 

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8 hours ago, downzy said:

I think his scenario only works if 2024 resembles 2000, where one or two states determine the presidential outcome.  I don't think it works if it requires Republicans overturning numerous state elections.  And those individual state elections would have to be really close (closer than Arizona or Georgia). 

I honestly don't know about that. All it would take is for GOP led states to refuse to certify the vote to ensure neither candidate gets 270 and the House gets to decide the outcome on 1 vote per state. Game over at that point.

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3 hours ago, Dazey said:

I honestly don't know about that. All it would take is for GOP led states to refuse to certify the vote to ensure neither candidate gets 270 and the House gets to decide the outcome on 1 vote per state. Game over at that point.

Yeah, maybe.

Biden won 306 electoral votes in 2020.

In 2024 let’s give Trump Wisconsin and Michigan.   That’s 26 electoral votes flipped.  That would require either Pennsylvania or Arizona and Georgia (or a combination of those three states) to refuse to certify.

That is possible but I still think it’s unlikely at this point.  It’s an eventuality that will likely someday happen, but I still have a hard time believing Republicans would commit political suicide for a generation or more over someone like Trump.  Winning in 2024 this way would ensure either a) the destruction of the Republican Party or b) the destruction of the country.  I could see the blue states revolt on mass with Democratic governors signing executive orders barring local and state law officials or bureaucrats from enforcing federal tax laws (ie, Californians no longer have to worry about paying federal income taxes since there would be no one at the state level to enforce that they do).

In the end, maybe we should have faith in McDonalds and let the Filet-O-Fish do God’s work prior to 2024.

 

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On 10/13/2021 at 4:14 PM, Dazey said:

Bill Maher's been banging on about this for years but he's not been wrong on anything Trump related yet so I think it's a very real fear.

 

I watch Bill and I do think he's right about Trump running in 2024 and getting elected. it scares the shit out of me, because I feel this will be the end of our democracy as we know it.

My hope is Trump will die before the next election. But yeah, Bill is super smart and sees things the politicians don't see or they do and don't care.

Biden can't do everything on his own. If Congress doesn't come together by the next election, we are in big trouble.

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I thought of something earlier. People give Biden shit for being old. But most of our government is run by senior citizens. Moscow Mitch is the same age as Biden, Pelosi is in her 80s.  Schumer is only 70. People question Biden's cognitive abilities but never the others. 

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5 minutes ago, Georgy Zhukov said:

I thought of something earlier. People give Biden shit for being old. But most of our government is run by senior citizens. Moscow Mitch is the same age as Biden, Pelosi is in her 80s.  Schumer is only 70. People question Biden's cognitive abilities but never the others. 

This is true. The government is way too old. But the reason people question Biden above others is because he's clearly a little further gone than the rest of them. This is clear to the administration:

https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/presidential-news-conferences

Biden is averaging less press conferences in a year than any other president by a long shot. Then there's also the time he began a press conference with "I’ll take your questions, and as usual, folks, they gave me a list of the people I’m going to call on,"

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12 hours ago, Jakey Styley said:

Biden is averaging less press conferences in a year than any other president by a long shot. Then there's also the time he began a press conference with "I’ll take your questions, and as usual, folks, they gave me a list of the people I’m going to call on,"

Well, yes and no.

It’s true that Biden has attended less press conferences, but at least there are (weekly) press conferences. Trump did away with them almost entirely for the middle two years of his Presidency.

As for Biden’s comments, that’s not uncommon for the President to be advised as to which reporters to call upon. Since the Ford administration most reporters submit their questions or topics ahead of time to the White House Press Office to allow the administration an opportunity to provide information when the questions are asked.

I do think Biden is monitored and managed in part because of his age.  It’s not ideal that the President is older than fuck. But considering Biden appeared to be the only candidate the Democrats could put up to beat Trump, it’s better than having a Trump second term. 

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