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downzy

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When someone like this can become a member of Congress, your country is fucked.

Democrats are kidding themselves if they think they’ll get a fair shot at federal elections come 2024 and onwards.

Trump was only the warm up act.

Things are only going to get worse.  Much worse.

 

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Eeerrr... Sleepy Joe better wake up. The dude lost Virginia and maybe New Jersey too. Not by a huge margin, it is 49 to 51 or something like that. New Jersey It is too close to call. But the Democrats better do something

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5 hours ago, Padme said:

Eeerrr... Sleepy Joe better wake up. The dude lost Virginia and maybe New Jersey too. Not by a huge margin, it is 49 to 51 or something like that. New Jersey It is too close to call. But the Democrats better do something

They won't.  They always fuck things up. 

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6 hours ago, Padme said:

Eeerrr... Sleepy Joe better wake up. The dude lost Virginia and maybe New Jersey too. Not by a huge margin, it is 49 to 51 or something like that. New Jersey It is too close to call. But the Democrats better do something

The power out of party in Washington has won the Virginia Gubernatorial race the following year 11 of the last 12 elections.  The odds were always stacked against the Democratic candidate.

Now, having said that, this was a race the Democrats lost in many ways.  McAuliffe as a candidate in 2021 is essentially a repeat of Hillary Clinton in 2016.

The mess of the Afghanistan exit didn't help.

The lack of action in Washington with respect to the infrastructure and BBB bills didn't help.

But the fact that McAuliffe only lost by 2-3 points in light of all the head winds is still kind of surprising.

McAuliffe was a terrible candidate.  He failed to define Youngkin early when he had a chance.  He went from a 33 point favourite on education six weeks ago to a 9 point underdog just prior to the election.  Giving lip service to the teachers union with respect to lesson plans in a debate in this kind of environment is political suicide.  The idea that there was a sizeable amount of the electorate that was motivated by CRT in schools (despite CRT not being taught in Virginia schools) is crazy and political malpractice by McAullife.

In some ways the loss yesterday in Virginia might help Democrats in the long term.  It might push Congressional Democrats to actually pass something.  A win would make them more complacent, self-assured.  Granted, for the people of Virginia Youngkin's win isn't great.  But in a state that was long held by Republicans for decades, we saw Democrats lock-in state House seats gains that would have been unfathomable 15 to 20 years ago.

It sounds strange, but the best shot of Biden winning re-election in 2024 is if the Democrats lose control of the House in 2022 (which they're going to anyway).  American voters have the memory of a gold-fish.  Trump wins in 2024 if Democrats retain control for four years.  Biden needs a visible foil for 2024.  McAullife ran against the shadow of Trump.  Biden will have the luxury of running against the real thing in 2024 if Trump isn't dead or under indictment.   

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17 hours ago, downzy said:

The power out of party in Washington has won the Virginia Gubernatorial race the following year 11 of the last 12 elections.  The odds were always stacked against the Democratic candidate.

Now, having said that, this was a race the Democrats lost in many ways.  McAuliffe as a candidate in 2021 is essentially a repeat of Hillary Clinton in 2016.

The mess of the Afghanistan exit didn't help.

The lack of action in Washington with respect to the infrastructure and BBB bills didn't help.

But the fact that McAuliffe only lost by 2-3 points in light of all the head winds is still kind of surprising.

McAuliffe was a terrible candidate.  He failed to define Youngkin early when he had a chance.  He went from a 33 point favourite on education six weeks ago to a 9 point underdog just prior to the election.  Giving lip service to the teachers union with respect to lesson plans in a debate in this kind of environment is political suicide.  The idea that there was a sizeable amount of the electorate that was motivated by CRT in schools (despite CRT not being taught in Virginia schools) is crazy and political malpractice by McAullife.

In some ways the loss yesterday in Virginia might help Democrats in the long term.  It might push Congressional Democrats to actually pass something.  A win would make them more complacent, self-assured.  Granted, for the people of Virginia Youngkin's win isn't great.  But in a state that was long held by Republicans for decades, we saw Democrats lock-in state House seats gains that would have been unfathomable 15 to 20 years ago.

It sounds strange, but the best shot of Biden winning re-election in 2024 is if the Democrats lose control of the House in 2022 (which they're going to anyway).  American voters have the memory of a gold-fish.  Trump wins in 2024 if Democrats retain control for four years.  Biden needs a visible foil for 2024.  McAullife ran against the shadow of Trump.  Biden will have the luxury of running against the real thing in 2024 if Trump isn't dead or under indictment.   

The problem is that we are not dealing with normal Republicans. We're dealing with Nazis with Trump, Hannity, conspiracy theory nutters and Evangelicals as their Fürer. So even if McAuliffe sucks, he is still better than the alternative. The last thing the U.S. and the world need is a Congress and regional government run by a bunch of  tyrannical, pathetic, ignorant and bizarre people

And it is not just Virginia. Democrats won New Jersey by a hair. And even in New York Replublicans made gains.

Not the best time for the President to take a nap during the COP26  meeting

Sorry, I don't like this at all. I'm scared

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9 hours ago, Padme said:

The problem is that we are not dealing with normal Republicans. We're dealing with Nazis with Trump, Hannity, conspiracy theory nutters and Evangelicals as their Fürer. So even if McAuliffe sucks, he is still better than the alternative. The last thing the U.S. and the world need is a Congress and regional government run by a bunch of  tyrannical, pathetic, ignorant and bizarre people

And it is not just Virginia. Democrats won New Jersey by a hair. And even in New York Replublicans made gains.

Not the best time for the President to take a nap during the COP26  meeting

Sorry, I don't like this at all. I'm scared

I think we should ease up on the Nazi references.  No fan of Trump or those who support them, but it's still a long way from having fascist inclinations and gassing 6 million Jews.

I'm not arguing that McAuliffe wouldn't be a better Governor than Youngkin.  But the Democrats chose to run one of the swampiest creatures in their stables.  Considering the election was decided by a couple of points, it's not beyond reason to suggest that a better candidate might have overcome the off-year curse for the party holding the White House.

The Party of every President in their first office since George H.W. Bush has lost both the governor races in both New Jersey and Virginia.  Trump is the one exception since Democrats already held the governorship and were able to win re-election that year.  The fact that Democrats kept New Jersey is a historical aberration and kind of amazing.

But what's more significant is that 2020 really was a referendum on Trump.  Remove the key player in the game and there's less motivation by the general public to vote for the Democratic candidates.  The Virginia race wasn't decided solely on an energized Trump base, but also many suburbanites who voted for Biden in 2020 but now feel more comfortable voting Republican again now that Trump isn't the main player.  While I would prefer to see victories for the Democrats, it may not be a bad thing to let some of the pressure out of the Republican party with respect to its connection with Trump.

It also makes it clear that Democrats can't just be anti-Trump and expect to win.  McAuliffe ran a campaign with one theme: Younkin is Trump.  Except Younkin isn't Trump.  Nobody else is Donald Trump.

More importantly the loss will hopefully reorient Democrats, prioritizing bread-and-butter issues where they have more of a home field advantage.  Because if they think they can retain or win power by focusing on woke-based politics, they'll find themselves losing votes and losing elections.  

I think there are a lot of reasons to be scared.  Trump running again in 2024 is a very scary proposition.  Win or lose.  He is a cancer and the greatest threat to the country, bar none.  But the country has to care enough to do something about it.  If not, well, that's on them.  

29 minutes ago, alfierose said:

Did he ever show up? Maybe with Elvis in tow? :lol:

Shockingly he did not.

But I did read somewhere that the nutters believe other dead celebrities were there.  

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I think there's a chance, providing Democrats and the media shut up about him, that Trump could become increasingly irrelevant by the time 2024 approaches. Putting aside the merits/non merits of the R governor candidates in these elections it seems like they showed a way forward for Republicans without having much to do with Trump himself. Youngkin paid a bit of lip service when directly asked but he strikes me as a typically old skool religious conservative rather than a Trump devotee. I've not seen anything to suggest the NJ guy ran on a 'Trump' platform either.

A lot of people would argue that old skool Republicans are almost as bad but I don't think it's the worst thing if the RNC can see a way forward to both sideline Trump and remain a viable party that can still win support. Since Jan 6th it appears like Trump support has peeled away amongst many voters. Yes he still has a decent hardcore base but I think that might dwindle too as more time elapses away from the point he was president. I could be totally wrong about this because the US never ceases to throw up surprises but I struggle to imagine him getting the same support 2nd time around. At least the first time he was sort of an unknown (not really but you know what I mean) and a lot of people took a punt at something they thought to be anti establishment.

McAuliffe lost the election on that one comment to parents that they heard and interpreted as "The best interests of your children have nothing to do with you". A profoundly stupid thing for an experienced politician to say because in the end I don't even think it was just down to panic over CRT, a statement like that becomes a boogeyman that you can place any lens over. To be honest if a politician was that dismissive over my role as a parent I'd probably think "fuck you" too. He could have handled it so much better and it was akin to Clinton's 'deplorable' moment. Very poor strategy and probably cost him the race.

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44 minutes ago, downzy said:

I think we should ease up on the Nazi references.  No fan of Trump or those who support them, but it's still a long way from having fascist inclinations and gassing 6 million Jews.

Really? Well January 6th was not exactly a birthday party. They showed their fascist inclinations that day. That's why I used the word 

 In the 20th century,Republicans held majority until Thruman. And since then Democrats kept their majority in the House and Senate until Clinton. And they could work together. Today it is almost impossible

Yes, Governors could win and lose. But in the past Republicans were a normal party. In fact at times Republicans were  a lot more moderate. Or at least they were more normal people. Now they are a party run by the likes of Anne Coulter Qanon and  Jerry Falwell. It shouldn't be that way.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Padme said:

Really? Well January 6th was not exactly a birthday party. They showed their fascist inclinations that day. That's why I used the word

I do too.  But that's still a long way from committing genocide.

Moreover, the people who showed up to the Jan 6th rally aren't the same folks who voted for Biden in November but voted for Youngkin two days ago.  I don't think it helps the situation to conflate anyone who voted for Younkin as someone who liked what they saw on Jan 6th.

1 hour ago, Padme said:

Yes, Governors could win and lose. But in the past Republicans were a normal party. In fact at times Republicans were  a lot more moderate. Or at least they were more normal people. Now they are a party run by the likes of Anne Coulter Qanon and  Jerry Falwell. It shouldn't be that way.

Agreed.  But not all Republican Governors are right-wing cranks like Desantis or Abbott.  Hogan in Maryland, Baker in Massachusetts, DeWine in Ohio.  All Republican Governors who, while I disagree with on policy in some areas, aren't bad people and seem to act with principle.

There's a lot wrong with the Republican Party.  But not every self-subscribed Republican should be viewed as a whipping boy for Donald Trump.  Granted, they are becoming a minority in their own party, but as the party purges its best for its worst, it will further devolve into something that fewer and fewer apolitical Americans (the majority) will support.  

 

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2 hours ago, alfierose said:

McAuliffe lost the election on that one comment to parents that they heard and interpreted as "The best interests of your children have nothing to do with you". A profoundly stupid thing for an experienced politician to say because in the end I don't even think it was just down to panic over CRT, a statement like that becomes a boogeyman that you can place any lens over. To be honest if a politician was that dismissive over my role as a parent I'd probably think "fuck you" too. He could have handled it so much better and it was akin to Clinton's 'deplorable' moment. Very poor strategy and probably cost him the race.

It's such a weird thing to say but also something that I kind of supported.

I really don't want parents involved in classroom curriculum.  I'd prefer lesson plans be formulated by the people who have backgrounds in education, not easily triggered and overly sensitive parents. 

If parents are that concerned about their kids education, they can pull them out of school and teach them on their own.

Or, and what my wife and I are planning on doing, we'll teach our child the things we think are necessary on our own that are not taught in schools.  We sent our daughter to a public Catholic school mostly because the reviews are good and it's literally a two minute walk from our house.  Both my wife and I are atheists.  She is going to be taught scripture and Christian concepts of life and death that we don't agree with.  For us, we'll simply explain what we believe in and challenge her to think past what she's being taught with respect to religion and faith.  But ultimately it will be up to her to decide.  

The world would be a lot better off if parents took a more proactive role in their kids education in their own private lives and leave the lesson plans their kids get at school alone.  Unfortunately few think this way, hence why it was a politically dumb thing for McAullife to say.  I get that he was trying to appeal to part of his base (teachers who vote for Democrats), but they were going to vote for him anyway. 

 

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14 minutes ago, downzy said:

Agreed.  But not all Republican Governors are right-wing cranks like Desantis or Abbott.  Hogan in Maryland, Baker in Massachusetts, DeWine in Ohio.  All Republican Governors who, while I disagree with on policy in some areas, aren't bad people and seem to act with principle.

There's a lot wrong with the Republican Party.  But not every self-subscribed Republican should be viewed as a whipping boy for Donald Trump.  Granted, they are becoming a minority in their own party, but as the party purges its best for its worst, it will further devolve into something that fewer and fewer apolitical Americans (the majority) will support.  

 

Then why are they against legislation that means to help America? Democrats have dealt with people like Manchin before. But they were able get some Republicans on their side. In the 40s, 50s and 60s Democrats from the South were a real pain in the ass. But Congress was still capable to pass crucial legislation. And it happened the other way around as well. Governors could play a role when it comes to the Senate

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1 minute ago, Padme said:

Then why are they against legislation that means to help America?

Because enough Americans don't want it.  Now we can debate why that is.  But for now, they represent the part of America that does not want what many in the Democratic party are selling, even if it would help everyone.

While I don't agree with Manchin about a lot, he is right about one thing: if Democrats want to pass a bold and progressive agenda, then they need to elect more progressives.  But they can't because the country isn't what the progressives want it to be.  I generally agree with most of progressive policy these days, particularly on the federal level.  But America isn't the country we want it to be, the country that can help itself.  The fact that absolutely nothing was done after Newtown or how America is the only developed country in the world without parental leave should make it clear what kind of country it is.  Until Democrats can convince enough Americans that it's policies are better for them (and they are), we're not going to see the outcomes that we think would help the country.

7 minutes ago, Padme said:

In the 40s, 50s and 60s Democrats from the South were a real pain in the ass. But Congress was still capable to pass crucial legislation.

It was a different time when economic and racial issues weren't filtered and paired within the same parties.  America has been here before, several times.  Unfortunately one of those times resulted in a civil war, but it's not necessarily true that bi-partisanship has dominated American political history.  It ebbs and flows.  My bet is once the fillibuster is finally done away with we'll begin to see less partisanship at the federal level.  Too many parties hide behind the fillibuster to excuse their inaction.  Once the opposition party has no real means of shutting down legislation (should they not hold one branch of government), more opposition party members will likely come back to the table.  A lot of partisanship in America is structural, born or cynicism from nothing getting done.  That begins to change when the mechanisms that foster inaction begin to fall away.  

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1 hour ago, downzy said:

It's such a weird thing to say but also something that I kind of supported.

I really don't want parents involved in classroom curriculum.  I'd prefer lesson plans be formulated by the people who have backgrounds in education, not easily triggered and overly sensitive parents. 

If parents are that concerned about their kids education, they can pull them out of school and teach them on their own.

Or, and what my wife and I are planning on doing, we'll teach our child the things we think are necessary on our own that are not taught in schools.  We sent our daughter to a public Catholic school mostly because the reviews are good and it's literally a two minute walk from our house.  Both my wife and I are atheists.  She is going to be taught scripture and Christian concepts of life and death that we don't agree with.  For us, we'll simply explain what we believe in and challenge her to think past what she's being taught with respect to religion and faith.  But ultimately it will be up to her to decide.  

The world would be a lot better off if parents took a more proactive role in their kids education in their own private lives and leave the lesson plans their kids get at school alone.  Unfortunately few think this way, hence why it was a politically dumb thing for McAullife to say.  I get that he was trying to appeal to part of his base (teachers who vote for Democrats), but they were going to vote for him anyway. 

 

That's definitely a better way of putting it but not as soundbitey. Which is sort of the problem with politics!

I find the whole school board thing quite fascinating because we don't have anything here that works like that. Here each school has a board of governors which you can get elected to as a parent-governor but meetings aren't public. If I had any type of issue with the school that wasn't resolved at a parent/teacher level I can write to the governors, who may, if it's serious invite me to speak at a portion of the meeting but I wouldn't be able to take a whole bunch of parents with me. It would strictly be a closed meeting and I would only be able to attend my portion. Most of the time that wouldn't even happen and you would just correspond in writing.

We don't often have have clashes over curriculum here, when it has happened recently it's been the muslim community vs sex education or issues of blasphemy. There was a particularly nasty incident not far from me where a teacher had to go into hiding because he showed his class a Charlie Hebdo image.

Outside of those incidents our school curriculums are pretty uncontroversial as far as I can tell. Still banging on about WW2, the Industrial Revolution, Shakespeare and rock formation. :lol:

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On 11/4/2021 at 7:16 PM, downzy said:

Agreed.  But not all Republican Governors are right-wing cranks like Desantis or Abbott.  Hogan in Maryland, Baker in Massachusetts, DeWine in Ohio.  All Republican Governors who, while I disagree with on policy in some areas, aren't bad people and seem to act with principle.

Do you really think so? The basic principles of the party seem extreme and dangerous to me. 

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20 minutes ago, Graeme said:

Do you really think so? The basic principles of the party seem extreme and dangerous to me. 

Not that it matters given that the US has about ten years left as a world power before China takes over. 

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2 hours ago, Graeme said:

Do you really think so? The basic principles of the party seem extreme and dangerous to me. 

When I said act with principle, I don’t mean the kinds of principles reflected in their policy choices.  But respect for decency and the law.  

While I don’t think it’s the majority of the party, I do think there are enough Republicans who still believe and will stand up for the rule of law and against authoritarianism.  It’s why many Republicans voted against Trump last year are back voting for Republican candidates who, though they take morally repugnant policy positions, are not at heart sociopathic narcissistic willing to burn the whole system down because of their sad little egos.

I think it’s important that the Republicans who voted for Biden in 2020 but are now voting for Republican candidates in 2021 not be lumped in with the degenerates who still support and enable Trump and his brand of political demagoguery.  Otherwise they will be pushed to the dark side, making it harder for sane people to run in and win elections. 

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I always find these details fascinating.  Elections are often relative. Rarely are they reflective of the general will of the people but more often the product of who shows up.  It’s just so strange to me that there are that many Americans who say to themselves, “well, my guy won last time so I’m going to sit this one out.”  

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