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The US Politics/Elections Thread 2.0


downzy

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1 minute ago, SoulMonster said:

There too much tension in both parties now, I think. Anyway, I meant that the fallout from the GOP splitting will likely be the Dems doing it, too. It wouldn't be the rational thing to do, as you point out, but if the tension increases between the "radical left" and the moderates, then I don't see how they can co-exist in one party.

I think that the "radical left" thing is a bit overblown. I just don't think that there are enough on the fringes to make up a credible left split. Trump is unique in that his base is genuinely big and solid enough to cause the GOP a massive headache if he leaves and takes them with him. 

I'm not sure if it would have as much of an impact on future Senate races however. I'm not sure if you can win a senate seat with a plurality of votes in any states or if you need >50% as in Georgia (maybe @downzy can shed a little light on that one?). If that's the case then there's always the chance that a Democratic candidate could win 49% of the vote against the GOP and Trump Party and then lose if the Trump/GOP voters coalesced in the subsequent runoff. 

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2 hours ago, Dazey said:

I'm not sure if you can win a senate seat with a plurality of votes in any states or if you need >50% as in Georgia (maybe @downzy can shed a little light on that one?).

That’s a good question. I’m 99 percent sure only Georgia requires 50 percent to avoid a run-off election.  I know other states like Main and I believe now Alaska use ranked balloting which could potentially help the electoral chances of a third party candidate. California and I believe Louisiana have open elections/primaries where the top two vote getters win the right to compete in the general regardless of party.  

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1 hour ago, downzy said:

That’s a good question. I’m 99 percent sure only Georgia requires 50 percent to avoid a run-off election.  I know other states like Main and I believe now Alaska use ranked balloting which could potentially help the electoral chances of a third party candidate. California and I believe Louisiana have open elections/primaries where the top two vote getters win the right to compete in the general regardless of party. 

So if we take Kentucky in the 2020 where McConnell won with 58% to Amy McGrath on 38% and the Libertarian candidate on 4%. If we assume that a Trumper candidate could win 20%(ish) then you conceivably turn Kentucky and many other hardcore red states blue just by splitting the GOP vote. I don't really think he's going to go ahead and do it but this would be huge. 

1 hour ago, Angelica said:

Has anyone checked in with 31Illusions mom to make sure he’s ok?

He's probably made her into a table lamp by now, :lol: 

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