So What Happened?

[raodonne]

Everyone knows nothing really ever goes as planned in the world of GnR...But that being said, it is clear that SOMETHING was planned for 2006...(and this is all on the assumption that nothing is happening this year) First, Merck makes the public statement regarding the number of Tuesday thing-not something that someone in the PR biz would say unless there was something there to back it up...Next, we have the Harley Ad....Clearly, there was a business agreement in place between Guns and Harley Davidson to use GnR music, including Better, in HD ad campaigns....As we have seen, Better WAS AT ONE TIME in an HD ad...Which means GnR had to grant permission...which is something they NEVER would have done unless they were planning to use Better as the first single...There is simply no other reason to use a Guns n Roses track only die-hards know in a national ad campaign unless it was to be used in promotion of a new single/album...If the only purpose of the ad was to sell Motorcycles, then it actually makes MORE sense to use Paradise City or Jungle or one of the *signature* Guns tracks...Not one to which very few people actually know the words...

So, considering all that, what the fuck happened? Lets put the screwing over the die-hards aside for a sec cause, lets be honest, they dont give a fuck about the so-called "die hards." This is first and foremost a business: we dont represent the demographic they are "gunning" for...We are all gonna buy CD if/when it comes out...We'll buy over-priced tickets to shows, etc...No-what Guns need/want is the record buying public who DONT know about the new songs, cant name everyone in the new lineup, etc...And they need a business plan to accomplish that....And it seems like, to some degree or another, that kind of plan was starting to come together....

But now, we have silence...Ads pulled/postponed...Radio DJ rumors dead...no new updates from the GnR camp...A pulled Del James article...Houston: we have a problem.

My question is: WHATS THE FUCKING PROBLEM? And honestly, at this point, how could it not be easily fixed?

[AxlCorp]

2 Options.

1. CD will still come out and they are making sure nothing is said until the day it is released (this is what they claim will happen)

2. Huge legal battle between Axl and Universal. No one wants to says something that will later be used against them. It is even possible that Gn'R never planned on releasing the cd and knew Universal would hold it up and ask for more money. GnR went through the motions of announcing a vague release date, and going on tour to help their case in court to claim that Universal is the reason behind the delay. (most probable situation)

[raodonne]

2 Options.

1. CD will still come out and they are making sure nothing is said until the day it is released (this is what they claim will happen)

2. Huge legal battle between Axl and Universal. No one wants to says something that will later be used against them. It is even possible that Gn'R never planned on releasing the cd and knew Universal would hold it up and ask for more money. GnR went through the motions of announcing a vague release date, and going on tour to help their case in court to claim that Universal is the reason behind the delay. (most probable situation)

Regarding the 2nd option, I'd agree but why sign the contract with Harley? Wouldn't Universal have to sign off on a release? Axl doesnt own the rights to the CD music, Universal does...So if Universal wasnt planning on releasing the album, its a pretty foolish move to license a song from that album...And a move I dont think a multi-national corporation like Universal would make...

[AxlCorp]

2 Options.

1. CD will still come out and they are making sure nothing is said until the day it is released (this is what they claim will happen)

2. Huge legal battle between Axl and Universal. No one wants to says something that will later be used against them. It is even possible that Gn'R never planned on releasing the cd and knew Universal would hold it up and ask for more money. GnR went through the motions of announcing a vague release date, and going on tour to help their case in court to claim that Universal is the reason behind the delay. (most probable situation)

Regarding the 2nd option, I'd agree but why sign the contract with Harley? Wouldn't Universal have to sign off on a release? Axl doesnt own the rights to the CD music, Universal does...So if Universal wasnt planning on releasing the album, its a pretty foolish move to license a song from that album...And a move I dont think a multi-national corporation like Universal would make...

Good Point. But to further go with my theory...you could say that Universal is playing the same game. I am not saying that Universal is telling Axl not to release it...but maybe they are saying that when he does...they will get back the money he owes them..and if he doesn't give it up, they will sue him for it.

[dally]

2006 ain`t over yet..... im a beliver

[zara mama]

seems Axl is promoting his music by not promoting it at all. well.. it works, doesn't it?

[ssiscool]

2006 ain`t over yet..... im a beliver

exactly we still got 25 days

[Lukinx]

Prepare for a very good New Years Eve or a very big dissapointment!

I keep my fingers crossed for a release

[shootingstar]

2 Options.

1. CD will still come out and they are making sure nothing is said until the day it is released (this is what they claim will happen)

2. Huge legal battle between Axl and Universal. No one wants to says something that will later be used against them. It is even possible that Gn'R never planned on releasing the cd and knew Universal would hold it up and ask for more money. GnR went through the motions of announcing a vague release date, and going on tour to help their case in court to claim that Universal is the reason behind the delay. (most probable situation)

Regarding the 2nd option, I'd agree but why sign the contract with Harley? Wouldn't Universal have to sign off on a release? Axl doesnt own the rights to the CD music, Universal does...So if Universal wasnt planning on releasing the album, its a pretty foolish move to license a song from that album...And a move I dont think a multi-national corporation like Universal would make...

Good Point. But to further go with my theory...you could say that Universal is playing the same game. I am not saying that Universal is telling Axl not to release it...but maybe they are saying that when he does...they will get back the money he owes them..and if he doesn't give it up, they will sue him for it.

It´s few times I read posts and really enjoy it. This time I do. U both have great points so please.. continue!

[AxlCorp]

Okay so let's continue...with the lawsuit idea.

If I'm Axl and I'm getting pressured by Universal, and I don't want to release the cd, but I know they are going to try and sue me. What else would I do to help my case to say that I am proceeding with the recording in good faith. Well, I may leak some songs...opps, some of my music has been leaked and now there is solid proof that I am working on it so Universal can't say I have done nothing.

[raodonne]

2 Options.

1. CD will still come out and they are making sure nothing is said until the day it is released (this is what they claim will happen)

2. Huge legal battle between Axl and Universal. No one wants to says something that will later be used against them. It is even possible that Gn'R never planned on releasing the cd and knew Universal would hold it up and ask for more money. GnR went through the motions of announcing a vague release date, and going on tour to help their case in court to claim that Universal is the reason behind the delay. (most probable situation)

Regarding the 2nd option, I'd agree but why sign the contract with Harley? Wouldn't Universal have to sign off on a release? Axl doesnt own the rights to the CD music, Universal does...So if Universal wasnt planning on releasing the album, its a pretty foolish move to license a song from that album...And a move I dont think a multi-national corporation like Universal would make...

Good Point. But to further go with my theory...you could say that Universal is playing the same game. I am not saying that Universal is telling Axl not to release it...but maybe they are saying that when he does...they will get back the money he owes them..and if he doesn't give it up, they will sue him for it.

It´s few times I read posts and really enjoy it. This time I do. U both have great points so please.. continue!

Thanks And I think that the one problem with most of the speculation is the assumption that Axl has more say than he actually does...Universal owns the rights to CD...As a result, people on the Board tend to over look the 10000lb Gorilla in the room-Universal....If Universal doesnt like Cd, or is simply sick of Axl then they can tell him and Merck and Jarmo and everyone else to fuck off...If 2006 doesnt fit into their marketing scheme, too bad for W.A.R...and look-the last thing I wanna do is make Axl out to be a victim here cause God knows hes a frustrating son of a bitch at times...But one reason for the silence is that Universal isnt down with the final product and/or CD doesnt fit into the 4th Quarter marketing scheme and Axl and co. really cant believe it...Consider this: Universal has a budget of X million dollars for marketing new releases...They have already spend 1X million bucks on CD...If they are serious about getting their money back, why release the album when they are busy promoting tons of other new late Nov/Dec Christmas releases?? Maybe, from their point of view, it makes more sense to devote more of their Fiscal 1st Quarter marketing budget to CD and Axl is simply stunned...After all, I am sure Axl assumes he is Universal's top priority but I'm no longer convinced thats the truth....

[Gallagher Rose]

haha I can't believe some people believe this album will be out this year...it's incredible how merck thinks that GNR fans are clowns,and some fans like to be clowns,waiting for this album to come out in 2006.

[pepsicoca]

Kaneda did a good observation a couple of days ago : "So releasing Chinese D, calling it the new album from Guns N Roses, is sort of like the final nail in the coffin for the old band...and it's a move Axl himself can not do...nor does he intend to do it...you can tell by his body language when Kurt Loder asked him about the release date this year, Axl shrugged back, he cowered at the question...not the body language you would expect from someone excited to put the past behind him and drop the ultimate GNR record."

Axl is afraid of releasing CD.

[AxlCorp]

Holy Shit, that's absolutely true, Universal might be saying that you can't just release this album without promotions cause we already spent too much money on it, therefore, wait till '07 so we can do it right. Axl's like, fuck you, I told everyone '06. Universal says sorry buddy, but you spoke too soon. That's very possible.

This just might enhance my lawsuit theory. Axl might be saying, if you don't release it this year, I'm walking, and I'll go re-recorded it at a new studio. I am not sure of the legalities..but if Axl doesn't want to release the new music, he probably doesn't have to and Universal probably can't do it without his consent...he might have a final approval clause...unlike the Greatest Hits situation.

[fantomas]

This is a VERY good conversation. Keep it up guys.

[AxlCorp]

Another thing. The website. No one, Axl nor Universal, have invested much money into it. I mean, it probably cost them less than 2Gs if not less to put up what they have now. So, why? To me it seems that a website is just another expense to an investment that will likely not see the light of day. They can invest money in concerts and pyros and stage people cause they make that money back, but on websites, the don't make shit..other than small promotions for buying concert tickets. To me that's another obvious angle for either party's lack of committment to a release. Hope I'm wrong.

[Urlacher54]

2 Options.

1. CD will still come out and they are making sure nothing is said until the day it is released (this is what they claim will happen)

2. Huge legal battle between Axl and Universal. No one wants to says something that will later be used against them. It is even possible that Gn'R never planned on releasing the cd and knew Universal would hold it up and ask for more money. GnR went through the motions of announcing a vague release date, and going on tour to help their case in court to claim that Universal is the reason behind the delay. (most probable situation)

Regarding the 2nd option, I'd agree but why sign the contract with Harley? Wouldn't Universal have to sign off on a release? Axl doesnt own the rights to the CD music, Universal does...So if Universal wasnt planning on releasing the album, its a pretty foolish move to license a song from that album...And a move I dont think a multi-national corporation like Universal would make...

Technically Better is still from the unreleased GNR album CD. The Harley ad didn't lie.

[pepsicoca]

I'll go re-recorded it at a new studio. I am not sure of the legalities..but if Axl doesn't want to release the new music, he probably doesn't have to and Universal probably can't do it without his consent...he might have a final approval clause...unlike the Greatest Hits situation.

Axl can't release music under the Guns N'Roses name without Universal's approval.

Some years ago, Prince had to change his name and play as "The artist formerly known as Prince"...

Edited December 6, 2006 by pepsicoca

[AxlCorp]

I'll go re-recorded it at a new studio. I am not sure of the legalities..but if Axl doesn't want to release the new music, he probably doesn't have to and Universal probably can't do it without his consent...he might have a final approval clause...unlike the Greatest Hits situation.

Axl can't release music under the Guns N'Roses name without Universal's approval.

Some years ago, Prince had to change his name and play as "The artist formerly known as Prince"...

So they are at a stalemate? Maybe that is why the long wait.

Axl: Give me the name Guns n' Roses.

Universal: No way, release the album.

Axl: Not unless you sign over the rights to the name.

Universal: No way, release the album.

[pepsicoca]

Consider this: Universal has a budget of X million dollars for marketing new releases...They have already spend 1X million bucks on CD...If they are serious about getting their money back, why release the album when they are busy promoting tons of other new late Nov/Dec Christmas releases?? Maybe, from their point of view, it makes more sense to devote more of their Fiscal 1st Quarter marketing budget to CD and Axl is simply stunned...After all, I am sure Axl assumes he is Universal's top priority but I'm no longer convinced thats the truth....

The problem with your theory is that Axl has been insinuating since January that CD would be released this year. I can't see how they could be running out of time now...

[AxlCorp]

Cause the album wasn't really recorded until they came back from Europe.

Edited December 6, 2006 by AxlCorp

[Estranged Reality]

Holy Shit, that's absolutely true, Universal might be saying that you can't just release this album without promotions cause we already spent too much money on it, therefore, wait till '07 so we can do it right. Axl's like, fuck you, I told everyone '06. Universal says sorry buddy, but you spoke too soon. That's very possible.

I hate to tell you, but that's not how it works. Axl isn't talking to Universal. Bandmembers do not directly talk to labels, they have representatives. Merck would be the one contacting someone from the Geffen division. Axl isn't calling them up on the phone, like, "Yo, Universal, my man, what'zup? Yo, 'bout that album this year, sorry, it ain't happenin', I gotza put some finishin' touches on it, my man, ciao!" Axl has probably never spoken directly to anyone from the label.

Universal Canada said they had no knowledge of a GN'R release this year. I think it's pretty obvious what has happened.

Axl has unresolved legal issues stemming from the 2002 cancellation. He cost Clear Channel promotions millions of dollars. They probably gave him an ultimatum: go on tour again so we can recoup losses, or pay us out of pocket for the millions you cost us on the tour.

So they put some leaks on the Internet. They got interest going. Axl reappeared, began promoting a mysterious long-awaited album by saying "this is the year." They went on tour with the hype of the Internet tracks having leaked.

What I find odd - and what I've found odd since earlier this year - is that whenever Axl is probed about the album, he seems ashamed to discuss it. You'd think they're asking him some ultra-personal question about a dead relative or something. He almost gets an attitude with interviewers, like, "Stop asking me this." Such as at the VMAs, when he let out a huge sigh and was like, "Yes, this is the year," and avoided eye contact, and basically made it known that he was done talking about it.

Why, if you're going to release an album, would you go out of your way NOT to promote it? It boggles me.

Even with a surprise release strategy, it doesn't make sense. And people say he's playing the old songs for old fans who aren't aware of new songs - THEN WHY DOESN'T HE INTRODUCE THE NEW SONGS AT LIVE SHOWS? He just starts playing them without saying anything. He doesn't say, "This is a song called BETTER from our new album CHINESE DEMOCRACY, which is coming out this year!"

If he were trying to get people to buy it, this would be perfect opportunity to let OLD fans know that it's coming out this year, and it would help promote it.

He doesn't do any of that. I find that very strange.

I think this has all been planned well in advance, and I don't think we are going to have an album this year.

I did have full optimism up until the end of September, which is when I started to grow worried, because there's no way you can release a major label record with less than - what are we at, now, three weeks? That's insane. No way it's possible.

Axl, despite what you may think, is not in charge of the album's release. Universal is. And they want nothing more than to release it. They released Greatest Hits BECAUSE Axl didn't hand over the album to them for release.

So, we'll see. Three weeks, Axl. If you don't deliver then there are going to be a lot of angry fans on these forums.

Edited December 6, 2006 by Estranged Reality

[brownsfan]

i like this thread - a discussion that takes into account potential real-world realities.

how about this spin on it:

Axl wants to tour, he loves to tour, and PART OF HIM also wants to release the album. So he knows Universal is on his back to make them some money, so he agrees (in principal) to the album, and also plans the tour.

Then - when the time approaches to actually release his little baby (the CD) he realizes, for whatever reason, that he's not ready for it to be out there. It's hard to avoid the conclusion that he's not geeked about the album's release - or he would be talking about it and blaming someone else for the delay - which he isn't doing. Axl doesn't keep things to himself - we all know this. Could be a ton of different reasons why he isn't ready (all discussed ad noseum on this board) - he doesn't think it's good enough, he is worried that this is going to be the album that either puts him back on the map or sentences him to a life of being inconsequential, he got some mixed reviews from the boards on the bootleg stuff, deep down he really wants more time to make it better or get the old band back together or get a better supporting cast, whatever.

So while part of him REALLY wants the CD released, another part of him is screaming "NOOOOOO!" So here come the excuses and delays, etc. The band members change - so they have to re-record some stuff, the artwork isn't good enough, the marketing plan it broken because of the delays, whatever.

On the other side - maybe even the execs at Universal are contributing to the hold-off on the CD. Maybe they are holding out for a possible band reunion (they know they would make a TON more money that way). Maybe they think it's not good enough. Maybe they don't want to invest another penny in marketting a band that is now nothing more than Axl and some hired hands, whatever.

Put all that together, and you end up with delays and a situation where no one is blaming the other guy becuase both sides are contributing to the delay. Factor in the legal angle that no one wants to give the other guy stuff to use in a lawsuit, and here we are.

Seems plausible, no?

[AxlCorp]

I agree that Universal and Axl aren't directly talking. But if Clear Channel is threatening to sue (probably Universal and Axl), Universal will pressure its artist (Axl) to rectify the situation...as you said, another tour. Again, I am no lawyer, this is just speculation, but I would think that an artist of Axl's stature has final say on his product and Universal is NOT in charge of deciding when it gets released or not. It is probably a contract situation where ..GnR is under obligation to release any new material under Universal, but Axl has final say. Or else, knowing all money hungry executive, they would have released the demos just to make some money.

[raodonne]

Holy Shit, that's absolutely true, Universal might be saying that you can't just release this album without promotions cause we already spent too much money on it, therefore, wait till '07 so we can do it right. Axl's like, fuck you, I told everyone '06. Universal says sorry buddy, but you spoke too soon. That's very possible.

I hate to tell you, but that's not how it works. Axl isn't talking to Universal.

Universal Canada said they had no knowledge of a GN'R release this year. I think it's pretty obvious what has happened.

Axl has unresolved legal issues stemming from the 2002 cancellation. He cost Clear Channel promotions millions of dollars. They probably gave him an ultimatum: go on tour again so we can recoup losses, or pay us out of pocket for the millions you cost us on the tour.

So they put some leaks on the Internet. They got interest going. Axl reappeared, began promoting a mysterious long-awaited album by saying "this is the year." They went on tour with the hype of the Internet tracks having leaked.

What I find odd - and what I've found odd since earlier this year - is that whenever Axl is probed about the album, he seems ashamed to discuss it. You'd think they're asking him some ultra-personal question about a dead relative or something. He almost gets an attitude with interviewers, like, "Stop asking me this." Such as at the VMAs, when he let out a huge sigh and was like, "Yes, this is the year," and avoided eye contact, and basically made it known that he was done talking about it.

Why, if you're going to release an album, would you go out of your way NOT to promote it? It boggles me.

Even with a surprise release strategy, it doesn't make sense. And people say he's playing the old songs for old fans who aren't aware of new songs - THEN WHY DOESN'T HE INTRODUCE THE NEW SONGS AT LIVE SHOWS? He just starts playing them without saying anything. He doesn't say, "This is a song called BETTER from our new album CHINESE DEMOCRACY, which is coming out this year!"

If he were trying to get people to buy it, this would be perfect opportunity to let OLD fans know that it's coming out this year, and it would help promote it.

He doesn't do any of that. I find that very strange.

I think this has all been planned well in advance, and I don't think we are going to have an album this year.

I did have full optimism up until the end of September, which is when I started to grow worried, because there's no way you can release a major label record with less than - what are we at, now, three weeks? That's insane. No way it's possible.

Axl, despite what you may think, is not in charge of the album's release. Universal is. And they want nothing more than to release it. They released Greatest Hits BECAUSE Axl didn't hand over the album to them for release.

So, we'll see. Three weeks, Axl. If you don't deliver then there are going to be a lot of angry fans on these forums.

I do agree with the idea that Axl does have serious legal issues stemming from the 2002 debacle...And I also agree that it is just really fucking wierd that he does not introduce the new songs at the shows...I mean, jesus christ-even 100% nostalgia acts still introduce new songs at shows...Its the oldest joke in the book, how rock fans cringe when acts like the Stones, after tearing through Jumpin Jack Flash and Satisfaction, say "heres one from our newest album..."

But the question I still want answered is: How the fuck does the Harley Ad tie into all of this? I mean, Harley and Universal had to work together on the Ad...Jarmo and Merck didnt just slap it together after a fisting session....Thats the one thing I really cant figure out...If it werent for that Ad, I'd say yah, its all BS and the tour is just a cash grab for a legally in-debted Axl....Oh and if anyone has a ton of free time, you could prob. check out legal actions pending against Axl using the Freedom of Information Act (maybe?)