guitarpatch

16 minutes ago, Rovim said:

a release plan for Gn'R? no surprise release, you give people as many options to purchase the music as possible, physical copies, both cd's and vinyl, digital and you don't stop promoting it while having a big budget to work with (commercials, billboards, internet and radio interviews, etc)

it will also probably be a good idea not to wait a full year before embarking on a tour to support the album.

But even in a best case scenario, how much units can Gn'R sell nowdays? any hard rock band? maybe the definition of success is different compared to 20 years ago. Even if you get it right, it's more of how much revenue a successful album generates indirectly cause I can't see a great Gn'R album selling even 4 mill.

 

No one is selling 4 million albums. Taylor Swift was the only artist to sell a million last year. It’s all streaming and getting synch deals. That doesn’t mean UMG won’t try and capitalize off of physical sales. 

46 minutes ago, Rovim said:

a potential new Gn'R release is far from being the most hyped album of all time. It is not even the most hyped Gn'R album of all time. This band has already secured their position. There isn't going to be a huge shift in their status just because a new release will be shit or great imo.

I agree that Axl is probably cautious when it comes to releases cause he doesn't want to ruin the band's perfect streak of albums of original material (with Slash at least, although I'd include Chinese as well)

Does the band have more to gain or lose with another release if we assume that for Axl, every Guns release must be like a grand musical statement?

 

You’re looking at a 24 hr news cycle on Twitter at best. It’s why a surprise release doesn’t really make sense to me outside of a single. Release the single with pre-orders/bundles. Then you’ll get another news cycle/promo opportunity push once the album is released. That’ll be the extent of it.
 

The label needs to capitalize across the board with streaming and physical sales with an older artist/fanbase like this. The band releases it in accordance with another major announcement such as more dates and press (from Slash and Duff most likely) 
 

The whole premise is you need to try and keep coming back to get people’s attention with multiple attacks that are spread out over a few weeks 

2 hours ago, DieselDaisy said:

 $13 million plus investment is a strange way for a label to screw its artist. 

Geffen gave them that deal/advance for that project. They then merged with Interscope along with A&M under UMG in 1998/1999 where Jimmy Iovine took charge. The people who were overseeing that project weren’t the one’s who signed off on the deal or who invested in it. It was a sunken cost taken on during a merger. By the end it was something that could offset your books at the end of the fiscal year more than a realistic opportunity to break even, let alone profit 

Not that GNR did themselves any favors during that time to give themselves a shot anyways 

10 minutes ago, Stiff Competition said:

Yeah and it could be done. It's little harder with a bigger band like this and so many moving parts that are involved to make it happen.

Last year on 4/20, Third Man Records dropped a new sleep album and it was in stores that day. No on even knew they were signed to the label at the time. But when you are talking about a huge company like Universal Music, all the band members and their separate entourages, etc...it's not that easy to keep a secret.

I would think in this situation, UMG wants to maximize sales of physical copies (since a part of the fanbase is older) on top of streaming. Makes more sense to gather pre sales to capitalize on that sector before letting the album out. Maybe you get a surprise release single to help flame that. I just don’t see an entire album dropped as a surprise. Not with the amount of $/larger advance that’s possibly at stake for UMG. 
 

You could see something pop up in the late spring, I just think a Spring album release scenario has passed at this point. 

39 minutes ago, RussTCB said:

A surprise release is the only way something will happen before the tour, IMO. 

I sincerely doubt it'll happen, but it's the only way at this point. 

I think we’re on to an album release supporting possible Fall arena dates at this point. Not that I think it’s happening, but that the most realistic next opportunity 

4 minutes ago, DTJ80 said:

True. However, Appetite For Democracy got released. Two NITL gigs were filmed - surely with the intention to release which would do nothing but enhance ticket sales etc with it being he current line up. Why have they been shelved? And I just found out today there was supposed to be a documentary in 2010 which was filmed but again - shelved?!

How much money has been wasted on filming shows/making documentaries for them to sit on a shelf?

Appetite For Democracy was released in between the last CD tour and NITL. That made sense. 
 

As far as anything else? Prob comes down to $. Either GNR wants too much to let it go or UMG doesn’t want to take a loss releasing it. Or the footage just sucks 

7 minutes ago, DTJ80 said:

Totally get that. Still no reason not to fire out a couple of dvd/blu rays or a live album? Wouldn’t harm them - only positives (dosh/good pr/happy fan base).

Depends what GNR’s contract stipulates. They get some type of advance for each type of release. Would have to make sense for both GNR and UMG to move forward. That includes strategy. Those types of releases are also usually done when the band is on a considerable amount of downtime after a tour and before any type of album to hold a fanbase over. Since they are on a never ending tour these days and doing reissues, where’s the window to release something like that? 

6 minutes ago, DTJ80 said:

It boggles my brain that for a ‘brand’ or ‘organisation’ that is hammered for their driven-by-money outlook, they don’t take full advantage of stuff that is already done and dusted and could be put out with minimal effort and would rake in the dosh:-

Numerous Pro shots from every era

2 x documentaries

Other live material - Marquee 87 has clearly been mixed as per Live In The Jungle release vs SBD version

UYI Boxset - a bit of work to package it up correctly learning from AFD mistakes but the material (from above sources) plus known alt mixes/demos/Ain’t Going Down

CD Boxset - as above, package correctly, tap into known sources, including the years worth of alt mixes/unreleased stuff if not reworked for new album.

Now - I’m just an ‘average joe’ but even I could create awesome packages using the above, already available, materials. How on earth can TB fail to see how easy it could be to appease fans, celebrating the band at the same time all the while making money? Unreal.

Most of that stuff makes the label $. What the band gets at the end pales in comparison to one show plus merch sales. Of course, maybe a box set gets them on the road again as well
 

A live archive/old show releases makes more sense monetarily once the band is no longer signed to a major label/or a new deal that excludes it. They need to release albums to fulfill their current deal to make that happen. 

38 minutes ago, ©GnrPersia said:

I don't think anything could be more counterproductive for the band than Axl himself. Irving's involvement with GNR begins in March 2008 and ends in June 2009 which is very short and in no way can be considered a factor for album release delays or retarded production approach of Axl. 

I don't deny that he had his own business interests by forcing Axl into a reunion but he had also forced Axl to release CD. Something no one else was able to do otherwise we might not even get CD as of this minute that I'm writing this.

In my opinion Irving could probably tell by his mountain of experience within the entertainment field that Axl's new musical direction was just a myth and he is a failed artist that after all those years was left with barely 13 average tracks worth of release. That is why he saw a potential to revitalize the band by reunion.

--

PS: and by the way even Irving's reunion idea (call it cash-grab or whatever) was way ahead of his time. Couldn't it be better to run this cash-grab reunion tour back in 2008 than now?

Azoff wanted to replicate The Eagles situation that he conjured and implemented back in the early/mid 90’s. The obstacle to this was two fold. One was releasing Chinese Democracy. The other was for Axl to get things out of his system and open lines of communication. The album was more complicated than just putting it out there. He needed to find a way for UMG to recoup its investment. There was never any long term play with that era of GNR moving forward. They found a patsy with Best Buy to move things forward and in the meantime messed with the inner workings of the band to try and set up the scenario. Axl obviously didn’t buy what Azoff was selling after watching things spiral out of his control. 
 

In that sense he failed. While he facilitated a release, Axl obviously didn’t get it out of his system and felt cheated by the experience for whatever reason. Otherwise you probably do see that reunion by 2009-2010

Azoff did more harm than good with how the band functioned long term post 2008. It’s partly why the reunion didn’t happen sooner, why Finck left for Ashba, why they eventually settled with TB etc.

Not saying there isn’t a mountain of blame to throw Axl’s way in it, but by no means was Azoff a good manager for post 2006 GNR 

27 minutes ago, cineater said:

Merck was a good guy.  People cheered when Azoff came on board and GNR sued his ass.  Team Brazil has made a lot of progress with this band.

Irving Azoff, while who may work for some artists, is really only interested in leveraging his other business properties, partners and maximizing wealth across the board. That includes whatever necessary underhanded practices and if necessary, any practices at an artist’s expense 
 

Not the best hire if you were truly trying to release a record from a band with non-classic members. Irving came aboard to not only cash in on a reunion but to try and leverage one for everyone else’s best interests. Extremely counterproductive for what GNR was trying to accomplish 

8 minutes ago, Ak1nney said:

The only reason we will or won't see a new GNR album is Axl Rose. Slash writes all of the time, Duff has no problem adding his parts, and everyone else in the current lineup would be more than willing. The end. No legal stuff, no contracts, nothing. Putting out new music isn't this crazy hard thing that the record industry used to make it.

Takes two to tangle w the label and artist. GNR being unrealistic with the situation is certainly a possibility. Although they are in a cash in and high leverage moment. So who blinks first?  

20 minutes ago, username said:

The value what GnR's management says has once again been confirmed. It's not surprising or anything since everybody knows they're just a bunch of moneygrabbing assholes. But man, the sad state of this band. Or is it our fault again? For downloading leaks and forcing them to "change plans"? What a shitshow. Can someone just leak whatever demo material was recorded up until 2004 so I can be done with this sad excuse for a band? 

There’s a ton of things to place blame on management here. Getting Axl to release an album is not one of them. All managers have essentially tried and failed there. Put your blame elsewhere in that regard 

5 minutes ago, Rovim said:

yeah but is that the only thing Axl wanted to accomplish with Chinese? if it was, he could've released it sooner. It's risky to care too much about your music as an artist, to overthink it which is why I gave Tool as an example: even that band is not as bad as Axl when it comes to releasing music but if you want to get it right, it takes more time for some musicians to get there and for some it can be difficult to let go of it.

Ozzy is the complete opposite of that. Ideally he wants to get it done fast and go on tour. My guess is Axl doesn't want to fuck up the Gn'R catalog with a bad release (regardless of your opinion of Chinese) so he'd rather not release anything at all until the art and the commerce make sense to him.

I believe it’s more he’s not going to release something without the proper backing from the label and the agreed upon advance. In 2020 that’s a bit tricky. UMG isn’t going to concede to that contract if the numbers don’t make sense. They’ll keep it in limbo until the artist wants a release and renegotiate 
 

If you’re GNR, maybe you use the tactic/stance to try and fulfill the deal and be free from UMG. If they want to renegotiate a lower advance, have this be the last album option on the deal. Then they’ll be free to release anything they want through their own or even other deals. They could also set up things such as a live archive under their own umbrella. Gives them more control
 

Either way lawyers are getting paid 

15 minutes ago, t-p-d-a said:

I'm still wonder what happened between Abu Dhabi 2010 and Rock In Rio 2011

Perhaps the follow up album got rejected. 2010 wasn’t great for labels. Pre streaming tilt/investment, album sales dwindling and retailers cutting significant space 

2 minutes ago, Tom-Ass said:

I don't know. I see a guy that could implode at any minute. He doesn't take care of himself or seem to do anything that could help prolong his career. He has always come across as fragile. His stage presence is pretty much gone. Most importantly he sounds like crap most of the time and his voice seems to deteriorate more each tour.  He is even a far cry from 2016 at this point which wasn't really good. There were definitely a few songs he was good at and flashes of greatness still remained but they seem to become less and less as the months go on. 

You are correct that $$$ good keep him going for another 10 years but who cares if he is a total embarrassment up there? 

He’d keel over and blow his voice out for an entire tour if he wasn’t somehow preparing and taking care of himself.  It’s a very taxing style of singing. It’s why it’s frustrating we haven’t heard studio performances where he can deliver.  People get old. People also gain weight for a variety of reasons. I don’t think any of us here are able to diagnose and play doctor 

If we’re truly on the cash in train and the band is solely a legacy act, then playing for the next decade and looking for different ways to regain interest isn’t out of the question. Especially if it comes to a AFD/UYI reunion situation 

Still haven’t heard why Izzy would cash in his last payday for a 5 figs per show. I don’t think it makes sense for him or the band to do it this tour. They’ve already cashed the checks for these shows 

19 minutes ago, Tom-Ass said:

They could have come to some agreement with him to come along and do a few songs a night with them. Like the Stones did with Mick Taylor during the 50th anniversary tour.  Not quite what most people want but would be better than nothing. They could certainly afford to pay him. 

I am trying to stay positive.. They could do something like that, do an acoustic set, shuffle the order of the songs a bit, dust off a few more classics and maybe play a new song or two. Would love to see them change the KOHD arrangement to something more old school. 

Not sure how long in the future they have. Axl doesn't appear to have many more years left in him. 

Axl is older now, but he’s far from falling down dead. If the $ is there he’s got another 10+ years. Maybe if the $ isn’t there, it’s not worth it at some point. However it’s not like he’s up on stage like a statue ready to go at a moments notice. It’s not as if performance issues keeps him off stage either.  

If they think they can cash in on a AFD/UYI reunion, you better believe they’ll cash that chip at some point when it’s ready. No need to blow it now when you’ve already cashed the check 

Also to add, why would Izzy do it? All he’d get out of it is a guest appearance fee. He obviously wants more of a cut, and he’s not getting that this tour. Hold on to your bargaining power for what your worth 

1 minute ago, Edward Nygma said:

What's wrong with maybe a few gigs with Izzy or a few or maybe a dozen at most! Shake things up a bit!

I’d think both GNR and Izzy are saving that reunion chip for another payday in the future. A share the loot situation that makes sense for everyone. 

7 hours ago, allwaystired said:

Comparing them to other, equally expensive, tickets really doesn't do it for me. I know others charge astonishing prices - it doesn't make it any more reasonable to me. 

Live Nation decides pricing

22 minutes ago, Tom-Ass said:

That is fair if you liked CD but when was that recorded? 15 years ago? Axl sounded questionable then never mind now. I personally thought CD was garbage so if his headspace is anywhere near that as far as music goes these days, I will pass. 

15? Try 20+. From what we’ve heard it’s all mainly the same takes that were pieced together (with some questionable edits) from the late 90’s/2000’s in each demo leak that’s out there

I would hope if they rehashed any material from those sessions, they’d rebuild the tracks from the ground up with new vocals. There are songs in there behind the endless amount of guitar overdubs

3 minutes ago, sofine11 said:

I think it would surprise many of us just how much veto power Axl VERY LIKELY still has over Slash & Duff even now.

I have to think, just based on the way those two operate, that new music would be of the highest priority at this point, and that an album would have perhaps already materialized if they were truly steering the ship.

While it’s possible that Axl still has “power” within the partnership, he’s still beholden to UMG to release music. It takes multiple parties to decide what to do. None of us know enough of the details to start pointing fingers 

9 minutes ago, MaskingApathy said:

Sure, but I highly doubt that Ashba or whoever is going to suddenly be given part ownership of the vault. Far more likely that Slash and Duff will have a say in it.

There’s 2 GNR entities from my understanding.  One that exists with the 3 partners and then Axl’s GNR which consists of the CD era. 

Anything that includes Slash most likely is being done under the original partnership umbrella. Anything else that is from the CD era is probably still under Axl’s control. Tommy, Ashba, Finck, etc while still  have writing credits/royalties if stuff is released, don’t have the power to decide what’s done with the material 

11 minutes ago, SoulMonster said:

I think we only have a fraction of the vault.

I meant, when he has given up any hope of finishing the music himself and realize their is a possibility it would be released posthumously. 

I love how we talk about this vault like it’s this mythological object that’s under lock and key. We’re talking about a few hard drives and DAT tapes here that’s probably backed up on some server. 

Anyways, I’m sure there is a ton of stuff we haven’t heard that’s in various forms of completion. I find the posthumous talk is a bit too much. I don’t feel things are that dire. Nor should it be the focal point of discussion. 

They probably have stuff that can be ready for release in short order. Whether that’s a single, ep length, or album is another thing. It seems like they don’t want to release it for the sake of releasing something. It feels that there needs to be a purpose behind it and for it be worth their time/energy to let go (the same can be said for UMG). It takes two to tangle there. 

The focus for this band is obviously currently cashing in on touring revenue. It won’t last forever. We’ll see once things dwindle, how these guys look at the long term function of the band. If they release anything, it will be most likely that it’s time for them to do so strategically to set something up. Whether that’s a tour, to fulfill record contracts, try and get synch deals or other endeavors. 

Hearing new material is not lost. The thought of GNR and new material being some cultural revolution in music has most likely passed. The more those expectations dwindle, the more the reality of the situation reveals itself. 

1 hour ago, mr. address said:

Hmmmm we'll see how attendance this summer shapes that opinion.

To be fair, they are in a weird spot business-wise: their stature kind of dictates that they release on the same scale as AC/DC, Metallica, RHCP, or Rolling Stones. With such limited space in the mainstream for rock n roll, they need a slam-dunk single for it to be worth it. If a new GN'R single were to come and go like solo Slash, Iron Maiden, or Dream Theater it would be huge disappointment for everyone.

I still think they have either internally cancelled a release for this year, or still might release this summer. There's no other explanation as to why they would be playing the Super Bowl and booking a US stadium tour. Poor attendance this summer practically guarantees they will not be on the road next summer, and they certainly wouldn't release any 30th anni UYI packages alongside a new album.

So, no new music this summer likely means nothing until 2022 at least.

 

 

Well of course there’s a reason to book these shows....$$$ 

As far as reissues, poor attendance probably won’t stop them. If anything it keeps the name sort of fresh. UMG knows exactly how they would sell, and if it would be worth doing a reissue campaign 

Again as far as new music, if the tour doesn’t sell well, nothing is getting released until they at least tour again. Which would be after a hiatus until big markets have demand again. 
 

It’s pretty apparent that a release isn’t in their priorities right now. If anything, it’s a nice if it happens or maybe a scenario presents itself where it can help. Right now, new music isn’t selling more tickets 

7 minutes ago, MaskingApathy said:

I'm convinced that the AC/DC thing was a tip off. The timing was just a little too perfect for that.

Or they are searching and prob begging for other type of content to help engage their SM base. Hard to push nothing but concert content 

21 minutes ago, jamillos said:

The internet had already existed in 2008, and those who were gonna pirate the CD would have done so even without the leaks. Or at least would have listened to the stream first and then decided. The real fans bought it, also regardless of the leaks. Not only didn’t it hurt anything, it actually created more hype. The rest (that was claimed back then) is just a pile of crap. 

As for the Village sessions leaks, there’s even less to talk about in terms of "hurting the band" (which band exactly, btw?) in any way.

The songs were mostly available to anyone who had interest years before the release. By 2007 most of it was available in high quality. To think it didn’t hurt things in some fashion just isn’t true. Not saying it was the main reason but it certainly had some affect 

The fact is these songs were available in some fashion for years and couldn’t be immediately purchased. By the time they were, the moment had passed. Whether that’s an impulse buy or someone who at that time wanted to support it. It was a lost opportunity on some level.