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Everything posted by SoulMonster

  1. If laws are preventive in that they can cause some restraints on peoples' violence (and not necessarily in the sense that people in affect suddenly have visions of imprisonment that curbs their actions, but rather that we get socialized to exert less violence because of various reasons including the threat of sentencing), then it is only logical that the threat of capital punishment will, too, have some effect of deterrence. This effect may be too small to accurately quantify, or qualitatively verify, but it makes no sense that all other threats of punishment will have some effect of dete
  2. I think there is no doubt that studies in social sciences, including comparative analyses between countries that are far from identical, can be frustratingly ungenerous in terms of clear cut results. That doesn't mean we should reject social sciences, at all, just that we must be transparent about any weaknesses in studies and try avoid using inconclusive studies for political gain.
  3. But again, no one here is arguing for a" substantial net deterrent effect", only - to use a statistical term - a significant effect. I think what is clouding this discussion (and not here, but in general), is the fact that these arguments, like whether capital punishment has some deterrent value, are used for or against capital punishment. So they become loaded. Personally, even if I find it obvious that there will be a minor deterrence from capital punishment on murder, I don't find this a weighty argument in favor of capital punishment. I find that question of a more ethical nature (sh
  4. Yes, that's the thing, too many other variables that erode the value of such comparative studies. Again, not saying we can't be fairly certain the deterrent effect of capital punishment is limited, just that we can't rule out there is some effect.
  5. If only one would-be murderer halts, if only one killer-in-the-making pauses, because of being afraid of capital punishment, then there is some deterrence. At least one life is saved. The question then is, how many people are we willing to kill to save at least one person, especially knowing we are likely to make mistakes and kill some that are innocent?
  6. And now, having read the first article, the evidence is only weak. From the article: "We certainly can’t say there is a deterrent. We can’t say there is not either," said Marc Mauer, the executive director of The Sentencing Project, adding that the lack of evidence was itself worth considering. "I think at the very least the fact that there’s certainly no reason to believe there’s a significant deterrent effect should give pause." Which makes sense to me. A possible effect, although not very large. I would think there is definitely some effect, but likely not large enough to be
  7. Without reading those, no evidence of deterrence is not evidence that it doesn't work. It could simply be - as I argue - a consequence of the subject being near impossible to study properly.
  8. Just saw the Leeds United documentary series on Prime. Assuming the documentary give a truthful presentation of the club, the players, management and owner, never seen such a bunch of lovely lads and how can one dislike them? Never saw that much hugging outside of a funeral. Can't help myself from kind of rooting for them now.
  9. Let's not get over ourselves with joyous fantasies. But we can dream. And next year they will be relegated.
  10. Oh, you were arguing that death penalty doesn't work in deterring all murders? Well, I don't think any proponent of death penalty claimed it would, just like any other sentencing doesn't fully deter the crime to the point where it is eradicated. I am sure they would argue - like we do when arguing for sentencing as a deterrent for other crimes - that as long as it has some effect on reducing the crime, it works as a deterrent.
  11. How do you know this? I mean, how do we know it isn't working as a deterrent at some level? Sure, we still have murderers, but how can we know there wouldn't be more if we didn't have the death penalty, maybe only a very few more? I am not even disagreeing, I just don't understand how e can say with any confidence it doesn't work as a deterrent (at some level), when this is more or less impossible to study?
  12. No. Restrictions must affect everybody.
  13. Obituary for a Failed Presidency | The New Yorker EDIT: This is actually a really great article. Read it for a summary of Trump's presidency and legacy.
  14. Maybe not...should be, though I sense a change is happening.
  15. There too much tension in both parties now, I think. Anyway, I meant that the fallout from the GOP splitting will likely be the Dems doing it, too. It wouldn't be the rational thing to do, as you point out, but if the tension increases between the "radical left" and the moderates, then I don't see how they can co-exist in one party.
  16. Honestly, I would like the Democratic party to split, too. It will probably happen sooner or later anyway.
  17. I really, really, really, really hope Trump starts his "Patriot Party".
  18. That's an awesome photo. What are the signs of a larger, more destructive eruption? More shaking leading up to it? Particular rumblings that can be monitored? Fissures and cracks opening up further down?
  19. How can you exclude the possibility of an eruption further below the summit spilling hot burning lava over all the Italians? Or just a good scolding with hot ash? Seem perilous when you look at that photo.
  20. Could have gone either way, but I feel we were closer there at the end. Need a win tomorrow. I actually don't fear Liverpool as much as City. City is on fire now.
  21. Why? What on earth could you have done? Plugged the hole with your enormous ego? Face it, volcanoes rule this earth and there is nothing we can do about it.
  22. Izzy was asked to join Black Crowes, or at least consider it, but he was fed up with bands and declined. https://www.a-4-d.com/t4995p30-13-july-november-1991-use-your-illusions-are-out-so-is-izzy#19671
  23. From my notes on the Jackie Chan song in 1996: https://www.a-4-d.com/t5018-19-december-1994-october-1996-axl-and-slash-fights-slash-quits#20214
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