Keep on thinking "Chinese Democracy" was a flop

[SoulMonster]

I can call it an artistic failure (because I feel parts of CD is absolutely horrible), disappointing (because I hoped for a lot more) and tragic (because in my opinion it doesn't bode well for the fortune), but just not a flop.

So all of that on top of the cost and length it took and you think it is a success?

Fuck me. If I could bottle what you are on and sell it to the masses I'd be made for life.

Have I ever said I think it was a success?

Del James, one book since 1993.

fake GNR Axl Rose, one album since 1993.

Seems they are pretty on par. So Roush has a good point.

GN'R is very much an active band which released a new record a mere 4 years ago, so the original analogy failed.

you seriously believe the crap you are saying?

with 4 years ago with NO plans whatsoever for new material, and with the last original album before that in 1991 doesn't qualify as an active band.

Err, yes, a band that is touring is active. It might not be an actively producing band, but it is still an active band, whihc may be in contrast to Del James who -- for all I know -- could very well be a former writer. What is so difficult to grasp about this ridiculously simple concept?

Edited December 11, 2012 by SoulMonster

[HisRoyalSweetness]

like it or not, 'success' was where the bar was set. mediocre counts as a flop. the fact that you, the most ardently dedicated super fans, are trying so hard to split hairs between 'flop' and 'mediocrity' really says it all.

Err, don't blame us for knowing the difference between mediocrity and flop. A flop is the opposite of success, mediocrity is the vast space in-between.

And I have never said it wasn't a flop, I have just pointed out that no one has been able to argue successfully for why it is a flop, because no one has been able to convince me that the industry expectations were a lot more than 3 millions sold after 4 years. It could very well be that market guys expected 8 millions sold by now, I don't know, but until someone has provided that information then I am not willing to call it a flop. I can call it an artistic failure (because I feel parts of CD is absolutely horrible), disappointing (because I hoped for a lot more) and tragic (because in my opinion it doesn't bode well for the fortune), but just not a flop.

how many copies of the cd did best buy buy? that would be a fairly good indication of what they expected to sell, since i can assure you they're not in the business of buying five times more stock than they need just to entertain themselves.

now you're arguing that you can't call chinese democracy a flop because you lack an understanding of what, at least in this unique case, constitutes a flop. can't you see that you're just in denial?

[oktayyaxl]

ıt has sold 1.6 million copies in the US alone.Best buy bought 1.6 million copies.So 3 million copies sold worldwide is wrong.at least 4 million copies has sold worldwide (including bestbuy deal).

[wasted]

I think Best Buy bought 1.6 million copies and it sold 600k of them. Actually I read that they have sold all those copies now. It's not available in the US anymore?

Whereas Wal Mart sold 2 mil of Black Ice.

Edited December 11, 2012 by wasted

[SoulMonster]

Chinese Democracy was a flop.

As much as I love the album, it certainly did not live up to expectations.

It sold what? 3 million worldwide? That's not exactly good for a 14 million dollar album that took over a decade to make and release.

Did anyone really expect that the production costs for the planned series of albums would be recaptured from the sale of CD alone? Please provide me with some source on this, because this was all new to me.

It certainly didn't live up to my artistic expectations, but if your claim is that it's sale didn't live up to the label's economic expectations then I would like to see a source for this.

[SoulMonster]

like it or not, 'success' was where the bar was set. mediocre counts as a flop. the fact that you, the most ardently dedicated super fans, are trying so hard to split hairs between 'flop' and 'mediocrity' really says it all.

Err, don't blame us for knowing the difference between mediocrity and flop. A flop is the opposite of success, mediocrity is the vast space in-between.

And I have never said it wasn't a flop, I have just pointed out that no one has been able to argue successfully for why it is a flop, because no one has been able to convince me that the industry expectations were a lot more than 3 millions sold after 4 years. It could very well be that market guys expected 8 millions sold by now, I don't know, but until someone has provided that information then I am not willing to call it a flop. I can call it an artistic failure (because I feel parts of CD is absolutely horrible), disappointing (because I hoped for a lot more) and tragic (because in my opinion it doesn't bode well for the fortune), but just not a flop.

how many copies of the cd did best buy buy? that would be a fairly good indication of what they expected to sell, since i can assure you they're not in the business of buying five times more stock than they need just to entertain themselves.

I am sure the project flopped for Best Buy. But we are not talking about this specific vendor and how they succeeded on selling their in-licensed products, we are talking about hos the record performed world-wide over time.

now you're arguing that you can't call chinese democracy a flop because you lack an understanding of what, at least in this unique case, constitutes a flop. can't you see that you're just in denial?

All through this thread my point has been that you can't decide that something is a flop based on sales alone, you need to know what the expectations were -- and this is a general principle, not only related to this case. Only in view of expectations can something be considered to be a flop. I don't know if 3 million (and still selling) is a flop or not to the artist/label in this specific case. It could very well be. I don't know (and really don't care), and no one has been able to help me out either. So I remain on the fence.

Funny how people interpret my reluctance to accept that CD was a flop which in only based knowing half the picture (the sales and not the expectations) to mean that I believe it was a success. I don't. I just react to forum-wide, mindless repetition of a claim I believe might not necessarily be true.

Edited December 11, 2012 by SoulMonster

[wasted]

That's kind of the point the label got their money from the Best Buy deal and it seems Best Buy sold all their copies of CD now. It work out for them but it kind hindered the initial sales of CD and hence the perception of the success of the record.

The band have sort of toured their way out of it and now the tide is turning.

The label may want another album to flog from their 14 mil investment.

If eventually Best Buy sell all their copies it's not a flop. It's a big company, the whole point of those deals is they can wait to sell them. They knew in the end, one way or another they would sell 1.6 mil. so it shipped platinum.

[SoulMonster]

That's kind of the point the label got their money from the Best Buy deal and it seems Best Buy sold all their copies of CD now. It work out for them but it kind hindered the initial sales of CD and hence the perception of the success of the record.

The band have sort of toured their way out of it and now the tide is turning.

The label may want another album to flog from their 14 mil investment.

If eventually Best Buy sell all their copies it's not a flop. It's a big company, the whole point of those deals is they can wait to sell them. They knew in the end, one way or another they would sell 1.6 mil. so it shipped platinum.

It could be that Best Buy had to sell it with so low margins (negative?) just to ship it out of their storehouses, that they in the end didn't reach their projected sales and could be considering it a flop. It could also be they had expected low margins and that it performed reasonable. I really don't know.

You have a great point about Best Buy's failure might have hurt the initial album sales. I believe I linked to an analysis of why Walmart succeeded with AC/DC (?) while Best Buy made mistakes with CD.

[Kill Devil Hill]

That's kind of the point the label got their money from the Best Buy deal and it seems Best Buy sold all their copies of CD now. It work out for them but it kind hindered the initial sales of CD and hence the perception of the success of the record.

The band have sort of toured their way out of it and now the tide is turning.

The label may want another album to flog from their 14 mil investment.

If eventually Best Buy sell all their copies it's not a flop. It's a big company, the whole point of those deals is they can wait to sell them. They knew in the end, one way or another they would sell 1.6 mil. so it shipped platinum.

It could be that Best Buy had to sell it with so low margins (negative?) just to ship it out of their storehouses, that they in the end didn't reach their projected sales and could be considering it a flop. It could also be they had expected low margins and that it performed reasonable. I really don't know.

You have a great point about Best Buy's failure might have hurt the initial album sales. I believe I linked to an analysis of why Walmart succeeded with AC/DC (?) while Best Buy made mistakes with CD.

I'd agree with this. When I went to Walmart, I KNEW about AC/DC's new album. I still remember it was everywhere. Walmart made it like an AC/DC wonderland. But I went to Best Buy several times that week, and I found out about CD through my uncle instead.

[SoulMonster]

I'd agree with this. When I went to Walmart, I KNEW about AC/DC's new album. I still remember it was everywhere. Walmart made it like an AC/DC wonderland. But I went to Best Buy several times that week, and I found out about CD through my uncle instead.

Heh. I guess they believed that "massive promotion" from their side would be redundant and that media reviews, hype, brand name and the band's own promotion would do their job. If so, they failed to take into consideration the last decade's dilution of the brand, the critical reviewers who tended to focus on the excessive time it took to release the album and the absence of former key band members, as well as Axl taking an AWOL. The result perhaps being that they felt they had to lower the prices just to ship the record which caused them to lose money on the project. If so, I wonder if they are bitter about Axl now being in the media, touring the record, and hence (probably) succeeding at maintaining a certain level of interest in the record, an interest that means that if Best Buy hadn't sold out the record a dumping prices, they could now sell a small trinkle of it at standard price and in the end earn more.

Of course, to the band this doesn't matter much. They might be annoyed that Best Buy didn't promote it better, but they still got their money from the 1.6 million (?) units that were sold to Best Buy. Hopefully the band will choose Walmart next time.

Edited December 11, 2012 by SoulMonster

[wasted]

I just don't think the label wanted to take the risk with 14 mil costs.

Not having the record in all stores really messed up the sales for the first 2 weeks though. But if someone said you'll sell 1.6 million copies for sure they probably bit their hands off.

The only losers in this deal are the people trying to work out if the album flopped because it's impossible.

[Roush]

A $15 mil record that is currently being distributed in a dollar store isn't a flop?

[SoulMonster]

A $15 mil record that is currently being distributed in a dollar store isn't a flop?

..isn't necessarily a flop, right. What matters is how much revenue has been generated and how far off the projections that is. The amount of money spent on the making of the record is less relevant and only of interest when it correlates with the future sales expectations of the series of records that were funded.

[Roush]

A $15 mil record that is currently being distributed in a dollar store isn't a flop?

..isn't necessarily a flop, right. What matters is how much revenue has been generated and how far off the projections that is. The amount of money spent on the making of the record is less relevant and only of interest when it correlates with the future sales expectations of the series of records that were funded.

"Series of records"? Mental gymnastics (per HisRoyalSweetness) -- is right.

You're citing hypothetical follow-up albums as a justification for Chinese Democracy's exorbitant budget. Now, I am using math to conclude an idea. What method are you using? If Best Buy purchased 'x' amount of copies, and sold 'y' amount of copies. And 'y' was less than 'x' -- does that not imply projection weren't met?

What about Dollar Tree picking up copies of the album? How is it successful if a vendor is selling the record at 1/10th of its original retail value?

I'll say this: only on a Guns 'N' Roses message board...

[izzydoezit]

I don't understand Axl fanatics. Will admitting that CD has flopped big time take away from their enjoyment of the album?

Libertad failed. I like many songs out of it and I don't give a shit about admitting that it failed.

Why are the Axl loonies so overprotective of CD?

[Facekicker]

Because to do so would be to admit that Axl lost the "war" in their eyes.

Libertad had a few songs I liked too. Overall it was a flop though. I still enjoy those songs though.

Maybe Axl's supporters are just as sensitive as the man himself and cannot handle reality, preferring to live in a bubble just like the one Team Brazil have put around Axl.

[Nosaj Thing]

Chinese Democracy flopped.

[SoulMonster]

A $15 mil record that is currently being distributed in a dollar store isn't a flop?

..isn't necessarily a flop, right. What matters is how much revenue has been generated and how far off the projections that is. The amount of money spent on the making of the record is less relevant and only of interest when it correlates with the future sales expectations of the series of records that were funded.

"Series of records"? Mental gymnastics (per HisRoyalSweetness) -- is right.

You're citing hypothetical follow-up albums as a justification for Chinese Democracy's exorbitant budget.

It's clear that more songs were worked on for the money and it could very well be that the label expected or expects more records to be released as a result of the invested money. In that case they wouldn't expect to cover their costs with the revenue from only one record. And if so, saying that CD is a flop because it hasn't sold for 14 MUSD is a flawed argument.

But I am not "justifying" anything, just explaining why the amount of money spent on CD may not be in direct correlation with the expected revenues from that record alone.

Now, I am using math to conclude an idea. What method are you using? If Best Buy purchased 'x' amount of copies, and sold 'y' amount of copies. And 'y' was less than 'x' -- does that not imply projection weren't met?

After what I have heard they sold out all the record they bought. But again, we are not talking about whether CD flopped for Best Buy, but whether CD flopped. It could very well be that Best Buy made a huge mistake and lost money on the project, but that the band and the label don't consider the record a flop (why would they care about Best Buy's problems as long as they got their money)?.

What about Dollar Tree picking up copies of the album? How is it successful if a vendor is selling the record at 1/10th of its original retail value?

I have never said CD is successful (neither have I claimed it wasn't a flop), I am just pointing out that we can't determine either without knowing the expectations. Why is this so hard to understand?

[HisRoyalSweetness]

current sales figures also fail to take into account how many copies aliens will purchase when they conquer the earth. i wouldn't be to quick to judge chinese democracy a flop just yet. the jury's clearly still out.

[SoulMonster]

Because to do so would be to admit that Axl lost the "war" in their eyes.

I have no idea what "war" you are talking about. Neither do I care about how CD performed. And as I have said numerous times, I consider CD to be only a mediocre record and have no desire to defend either its monetary or artistic value (I also find the concept of defending art silly -- you like what you like and that is that). But when people claim something is a fact without the ability or desire to back it up, like saying CD is a flop without substantiating that by pointing to what the actual expectations were and how far away from that target they got, then that is a discussion I will enjoy regardless of topic. It's sad that simple people interpret this as a) that I don't accept that CD could have been a flop (I do, I am just comfortably on the fence), or b) that I somehow defend anything other than reason here, or c) that my opinions is part of some petty, childish squabble among fans of different band or artists.

[izzydoezit]

Because to do so would be to admit that Axl lost the "war" in their eyes.

I consider CD to be only a mediocre record

really?

[Kill Devil Hill]

Because to do so would be to admit that Axl lost the "war" in their eyes.

I consider CD to be only a mediocre record

really?

I like how this shocks people every time Soulmonster says it.

[Roush]

(Snip.)

So because we're not precisely aware of record exec's expectations, there is no way we can assess Chinese Democracy?

In that case, maybe Skyfall flopped? By your criteria, we cannot safely judge anything without precise executive intel. So who's to say MGM isn't crying over the Bond film only taking in $900+ million worldwide box office?

And maybe the guys at Geffen are high-fiving each other over Chinese being more widely available at participating dollar stores?

I'm sure it was the dream all along. It was why they pumped $15 million into an album since 1996. So said album could be flying off Amazon.com for less than $1.47, and birth the eternal question: should I buy the new GN'R album, or have a King Size Snickers?

[wasted]

It's just hard to judge because CD won the lottery with Best Buy deal. It bought the mansion and car and had bar-b-qs everyday but it was like a pact with the devil. I always picture Axl back at his mansion eating egg like DeNiro is Angel Heart as he signs the deal.

[maynard]

wow, soulmonster's posts are filled with crap. the guy claims he considers CD mediocre, but i think he's just trying to disguise his crazy love for axl rose. that's just fanatism, in its most pure form.