The Ukraine Situation

[Facekicker]

Britain has already thrown Ukraine under the bus. So much for William Hague and his bullshit, not to mention their assurances to Ukraine in 1994.

Say one thing in public, say the opposite in private

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-26426969

The document, which was photographed as a senior official carried it into a meeting in Downing Street, says that "the UK should not support for now trade sanctions or close London's financial centre to Russians", while it confirms that ministers ARE considering - along with other EU countries - visa restrictions and travel bans on key Russian figures.

It also says that ministers should "discourage any discussion (eg at Nato) of contingency military preparations" ...

Ukraine is gambling that the US and the UK and the EU are going to come to their aid. They are about to be taught a very harsh lesson.

Edited March 3, 2014 by Facekicker

[Axl_morris]

How can you tell the weather is cold in the crimea? The russian soldiers are wearing balaclavas.

When you are getting bombed just keep us all informed on a guns n roses message board rather care for your own safety. Charge of the Axl brigade.

Edited March 3, 2014 by Axl_morris

[downzy]

Russia’s market meltdown is dragging a host of European companies down with it

http://qz.com/183436/russias-market-meltdown-is-dragging-a-host-of-european-companies-down-with-it/#/h/51182,2/

What do Russian troops in Crimea have to do with a Danish beer company, a Finnish tire maker, and an Austrian bank? In the interconnected world of finance, what happens on the shores of the Black Sea quickly reverberates on bourses across Europe. Amid the rout in Russian markets, companies across the continent that do business with Russia also saw their shares dumped by jittery investors.

+ A weaker ruble, higher interest rates, and general economic turmoil spell trouble for firms that generate a significant share of their profits in Russia. Moscow’s uncertain intentions in Ukraine and the West’s options for retaliation seem to have convinced investors to cut their exposure to Russia-related assets and sit out the turbulence on the sidelines.

+ The deep links that companies have forged with the BRIC economy on Europe’s doorstep are apparent in the scale and scope of the carnage in the markets: Germany’s DAX had its worst day of trading in two and a half years. Thanks to Vladimir Putin’s land grab, these are a few of the companies based in Western Europe that are destined to suffer a discount in the markets for the foreseeable future:

+ Carlsberg was already suffering from sluggish sales in Russia, where its Baltika is the most popular beer in the country. The Danish beer group is also the number-two brewer in Ukraine. Together, these and other businesses in Eastern Europe account for around a third of the group’s operating profit.
German retailer Metro reportedly is thinking of shelving a planned listing of its Russian wholesale business thanks to the market turmoil, putting off a potential €1 billion ($1.4 billion) payday.

European banks with Russian and Ukrainian exposure were particularly hard hit today. Austria’s Raiffeisen halted the sale of its Ukrainian subsidiary, while other lenders with extensive links to Eastern Europe, like Italy’s UniCredit and France’s Société Générale, also saw shares fall.

Unsurprisingly, a number of energy companies operate in resource-rich Russia, but traders seem the most nervous about Finnish utility Fortum, which runs power plants across the country, and British supermajor BP, thanks to its large stake in Rosneft, which lost more than $4 billion of its market value in trading today.

Russia is the third-largest market for French carmaker Renault, and it will gain even more exposure to the country this year after it is obliged to take a majority stake in local manufacturer AvtoVAZ as the result of a 2008 deal with the firm.
Finnish tire maker Nokian Renkaat generates a third of its sales in Russia (pdf, p. 10), and another fifth elsewhere in eastern Europe; the group was one of the hardest-hit stocks among members of the European blue-chip Stoxx index today, down nearly 7%.

[Ace Nova]

Britain has already thrown Ukraine under the bus. So much for William Hague and his bullshit, not to mention their assurances to Ukraine in 1994.

Say one thing in public, say the opposite in private

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-26426969

The document, which was photographed as a senior official carried it into a meeting in Downing Street, says that "the UK should not support for now trade sanctions or close London's financial centre to Russians", while it confirms that ministers ARE considering - along with other EU countries - visa restrictions and travel bans on key Russian figures.

It also says that ministers should "discourage any discussion (eg at Nato) of contingency military preparations" ...

Ukraine is gambling that the US and the UK and the EU are going to come to their aid. They are about to be taught a very harsh lesson.

The remainder of the article gives a clearer picture:

The reason for this form of words is clear. Public statements should for now be kept "generic", the document says, whereas specific threats should be "contingent and used for private messaging".

This is in stark contrast to the specific hardline threats made by US Secretary of State John Kerry yesterday.

One senior government source told me: "We prefer to speak softly and carry a big stick."

They stressed that European countries were pursuing a deliberate policy of showing to Russia that de-escalation was still possible whilst being clear that "significant costs" would follow if Moscow does not seek a peaceful conclusion to its dispute with Ukraine.

I understand that the prime minister hopes to speak to Germany's Chancellor Merkel tonight. The German attitude is regarded as crucial since they are traditionally in favour of a less confrontational approach to Russia and are heavily dependent on Russian gas and oil.

Downing Street is refusing to comment on a secret document though I understand that other scenarios were considered at a meeting of the National Security Council today.

Keep in mind, Russia has not fully invaded Ukraine as of yet....and from my understanding, they have yet to engage Ukraine forces. If it escalates, I'm relatively certain sanctions will follow.

How can you tell the weather is cold in the crimea? The russian soldiers are wearing balaclavas.

When you are getting bombed just keep us all informed on a guns n roses message board rather care for your own safety. Charge of the Axl brigade.

Do you have personal vendetta against netcat or something? Your humor is in poor taste, given the situation at hand.

[bran]

those are some big time hits.

[Heisenberg]

Milosevic invaded who?

First off, it's irrelevant. Crimea is not a country, the Ukraine is. It's the Ukraine's military that will have to protect Crimea against invasion....not just Crimea's people. Second, even if it were relevant, it should be handled internally by the Ukraine government. Russia has absolutely ZERO reasoning to invade a sovereign nation.

I like your way of thinking. But I feel a dose of hypocrisy. Why such a criterion has not been applied by the United States in the case of Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (Serbia)?

I was referring to his "rationale" for the ethnic cleansing he decided to do a few years back.

You are seriously comparing what Russia is doing to what the U.S. did for Serbia?

I wasn't aware of Ukraine killing over 200,000 Russians and displacing another million of them.

If anything, the U.S. should have acted sooner in Serbia.

No, because it can not be compared. The U.S. without the UN Security Council, commit aggression against sovereign state . Bombing has caused material damage of about one hundred billion dollars, over two thousand dead civilians, all with the use of Depleted uranium and cluster bombs on civilians, on civilian buildings, houses even on civilian train. Further military ultimatum led to the ethnic cleansing of more than 200.000 non-Albanians from the territory of the Autonomous Province of Kosovo and Metohija.

More than 200.000 dead and million of expelled? You must have mixed that up with the dropping of nuclear bombs on civilians in Hiroshima and Nagasaki...

[Ace Nova]

No, because it can not be compared. The U.S. without the UN Security Council, commit aggression against sovereign state . Bombing has caused material damage of about one hundred billion dollars, over two thousand dead civilians, all with the use of Depleted uranium and cluster bombs on civilians, on civilian buildings, houses even on civilian train. Further military ultimatum led to the ethnic cleansing of more than 200.000 non-Albanians from the territory of the Autonomous Province of Kosovo and Metohija.

More than 200.000 dead and million of expelled? You must have mixed that up with the dropping of nuclear bombs on civilians in Hiroshima and Nagasaki...

Sure, if that's what you want to believe, to each his own.

[Axl_morris]

What are the GNR vegas cinema times in crimea?

[magisme]

I don't think I've ever been more of an isolationist, and I know that's not even feasible given the precarious interconnectedness of the global debt machine known as the world economy, but, since I've become convinced that the economic reset is simply a matter of when not if, I'd just as soon we start going local now. Not gonna happen, though. Only reason the US stays out of this is if it's in its interest to do so. And the only reason we'd get involved is if it's in our interest to do so. LOL international agreements and morality.

[Facekicker]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-03/ousted-ukraine-president-yanukovich-has-asked-putin-use-military-force-ukraine

The headlines are getting hot and heavy now. Just out from Bloomberg:

• UKRAINE CRISIS 'BREEDING VERY SERIOUS RISKS FOR RUSSIA':CHURKIN
• RADICAL EXTREMISTS TRYING TO TAKE CONTROL IN UKRAINE: CHURKIN

And Reuters with the punchline from Reuters:

• RUSSIAN U.N. ENVOY CHURKIN SAYS UKRAINE'S OUSTED PRESIDENT YANUKOVICH HAS SENT LETTER TO PUTIN ASKING HIM TO USE RUSSIAN MILITARY FORCE IN UKRAINE

What will Putin do if he still believes, as he has said, Yanukl to be the proper president of the Ukraine?

Putin will go all in now that NATO and the West have confirmed no military action will be taken. Crude is on the up, Britain has already admitted in private that it will not act in a meaningful manner.

Putin holds all the cards.

[magisme]

Jesus. This escalated so fucking quickly.

[Heisenberg]

No, because it can not be compared. The U.S. without the UN Security Council, commit aggression against sovereign state . Bombing has caused material damage of about one hundred billion dollars, over two thousand dead civilians, all with the use of Depleted uranium and cluster bombs on civilians, on civilian buildings, houses even on civilian train. Further military ultimatum led to the ethnic cleansing of more than 200.000 non-Albanians from the territory of the Autonomous Province of Kosovo and Metohija.

More than 200.000 dead and million of expelled? You must have mixed that up with the dropping of nuclear bombs on civilians in Hiroshima and Nagasaki...

Sure, if that's what you want to believe, to each his own.

Not only that I believe, but I know from the facts. Do you want evidence?

[netcat]

Do you have personal vendetta against netcat or something? Your humor is in poor taste, given the situation at hand.

thanks KK. i think his humor is retarded regardless the situation. and i'm afraid he took that stand-up thing at it's face value

[Axl_morris]

Hasn't putin ordered ukraine to surrender there forces from the crimea by 5am tuesday. 5 1/2 hours.

[Axl_morris]

How can you tell the weather is cold in the crimea? The russian soldiers are wearing balaclavas.

When you are getting bombed just keep us all informed on a guns n roses message board rather care for your own safety. Charge of the Axl brigade.

I doubt she even likes Guns N' Roses, a quick look through her posting history reveals no intrest in GNR. Who is Netcat and who does she work for?

Maybe she is a russian spy, reporting setlists and leaks and back to putin.

[Facekicker]

Hasn't putin ordered ukraine to surrender there forces from the crimea by 5am tuesday. 5 1/2 hours.

Russia has denied this. That's not to say it isn't true. The head of the ukrainian navy in Crimea has already defected, one day after being appointed to his post. I'm not sure how much control/influence the government in Kiev has over its military, they seem to be disorganised at best.

[WTF?]

Another WAR that the FREE WORLD is looking the other way because of Russia got them by their balls if they dare attack!

the Syrians line up for food

[Ace Nova]

Not only that I believe, but I know from the facts. Do you want evidence?

Not really...I am fully aware of what happened in Serbia. And I rather not get into a debate with someone who is actually defending Milosevic. It's (almost) the equivalent of getting into a debate with someone defending Hitler.

If you really want to have that debate, I recommend starting a thread about it...this thread has plenty of worthy discussion on its own.

Edited March 3, 2014 by Kasanova King

[Facekicker]

Watch Germany back down next. 40% of their energy comes from Russia. Putin has that old cow Merkel by the balls. She won't do shit and Putin knows it.

Ukraine has seriously overestimated their "friends" in the EU and NATO. By the time they decide on what meaningless response to make Putin will have all of Ukraine under control.

Reports tonight that troops are moving into Eastern Ukraine.

[grouse]

If putin were to move into the eastern parts of the Ukrain the eu/nato will have no other option then to deploy troops to the eastern polish border. There's no other way around it. However I expect Putin isn't that stupid he'll just want to stick to the crimea.

[Facekicker]

Wait and see. All we've got so far is a "You're on the wrong side of history" statement from Obama. Yeah Putin is making it while Obama runs around the White House with Biden. Britain says one thing in public and the opposite in private. Merkel about to back down too.

Who exactly is on the wrong side of history exactly? It has been made abundantly clear to Putin that nobody is prepared to stand up to him. Maybe some sections of the Ukrainian military but they will be crushed by the Russians.

At the bare minimum Russia has taken Crimea. There is very little stopping them from taking more.

[downzy]

Wait and see. All we've got so far is a "You're on the wrong side of history" statement from Obama. Yeah Putin is making it while Obama runs around the White House with Biden. Britain says one thing in public and the opposite in private. Merkel about to back down too.

Who exactly is on the wrong side of history exactly? It has been made abundantly clear to Putin that nobody is prepared to stand up to him. Maybe some sections of the Ukrainian military but they will be crushed by the Russians.

At the bare minimum Russia has taken Crimea. There is very little stopping them from taking more.

Abundantly clear to Putin that nobody is prepared to stand up to him? Really? Over what, exactly? Syria? You mean the situation where Kerry allowed wiggle room to avoid a military confrontation and Syria and Russia took it? That it would have been wiser to continue with a military attack, allowed Bashar to keep and continue to use his chemical weapons, while the U.S. loses the moral high ground?

Sorry, but the Crimea isn't worth a military confrontation. If Putin wishes to wage war in the rest of the Ukraine, expect a different response from Western leaders.

[magisme]

You mean the situation where Kerry allowed wiggle room to avoid a military confrontation and Syria and Russia took it?

That's not how it went down and I imagine you know it.

[T.wa.T]

Interesting how Putin is taking the ask questions later approach. I wonder why he's not giving any chance of diplomacy right now before the situation escalates?

[Facekicker]

Wait and see. All we've got so far is a "You're on the wrong side of history" statement from Obama. Yeah Putin is making it while Obama runs around the White House with Biden. Britain says one thing in public and the opposite in private. Merkel about to back down too.

Who exactly is on the wrong side of history exactly? It has been made abundantly clear to Putin that nobody is prepared to stand up to him. Maybe some sections of the Ukrainian military but they will be crushed by the Russians.

At the bare minimum Russia has taken Crimea. There is very little stopping them from taking more.

Abundantly clear to Putin that nobody is prepared to stand up to him? Really? Over what, exactly? Syria? You mean the situation where Kerry allowed wiggle room to avoid a military confrontation and Syria and Russia took it? That it would have been wiser to continue with a military attack, allowed Bashar to keep and continue to use his chemical weapons, while the U.S. loses the moral high ground?

Sorry, but the Crimea isn't worth a military confrontation. If Putin wishes to wage war in the rest of the Ukraine, expect a different response from Western leaders.

Hilarious