British Politics

[SoulMonster]

1 minute ago, Padme said:

In Western Europe Greens are on the rise. While Far Right is on decline. Just take a look at the EU Parliament, Greece and Austria elections.

And people say democracy doesn't work.

[DieselDaisy]

1 minute ago, Padme said:

In Western Europe Greens are on the rise. While Far Right is on decline. Just take a look at the EU Parliament, Greece and Austria elections.

I don't dispute the greens are on the rise, but I disagree with the decline of the far-right as demonstrated in the following graph of EU elections (the far-right are the navy blue),

 

[SoulMonster]

Just now, DieselDaisy said:

I don't dispute the greens are on the rise, but I disagree with the decline of the far-right as demonstrated in the following graph of EU elections (the far-right are the navy blue),

 

I don't understand how that graph shows any change. Seems to me to just be a snapshot of how it was at a certain timepoint.

[DieselDaisy]

Just now, SoulMonster said:

I don't understand how that graph shows any change. Seems to me to just be a snapshot of how it was at a certain timepoint.

European elections are as good a barometer as any at discerning pan-European political allegiances, and we just had one this year!

[DieselDaisy]

Alternative für Deutschland acquired 4 more MEPs and about 4% more of the vote in 2019. Probably not the swooping gains predicted but certainly no evidence of a decline in their fortunes. 

 

[Padme]

1 minute ago, DieselDaisy said:

I don't dispute the greens are on the rise, but I disagree with the decline of the far-right as demonstrated in the following graph of EU elections (the far-right are the navy blue),

 

How so? The navy blue bracket is small. Besides I said Western Europe. I'm not talking about Poland or Hungary. In the UK is hard to tell. In local elections they vote Labour or Tory. But in the EU election they vote Far Right

 

[Padme]

23 minutes ago, SoulMonster said:

And people say democracy doesn't work.

Democracy isn't perfect. There is plenty of room for improvement. But it is the best way to go. 

[DieselDaisy]

1 minute ago, Padme said:

How so? The navy blue bracket is small. Besides I said Western Europe. I'm not talking about Poland or Hungary. In the UK is hard to tell. In local elections they vote Labour or Tory. But in the EU election they vote Far Right

 

You didn't mention the relative smallness. You said the far-right is in ''decline'', which is clearly not the case.

[DieselDaisy]

This summarises the most recent election,

Quote

 

The far right may not have cleaned up, but its influence now dominates Europe

Cas Mudde

These elections were no victory for democracy – upbeat responses to the results show how much the far right has joined the mainstream

Tue 28 May 201914.53 BSTLast modified on Tue 28 May 201920.44 BST

 

 ‘Overall the number of far-right MEPs rose significantly, mainly because a few parties won big – notably Matteo Salvini’s League in Italy.’ Photograph: Guglielmo Mangiapane/Reuters

Elections are not about the actual results, but about the interpretation of those results. It is about framing – 20% of the vote can be a win or a loss, depending on the previous result as well as the predictions in the last polls. The European elections are no exception and thus Monday was more important than Sunday.

On Sunday the results began to emerge, albeit in the form of exit polls, and on Monday politicians and pundits came out to try to shape the interpretation of those exit polls.

The powerful secretary general of the European commission, Martin Selmayr, used a well-planned Politico Europe event to sell his narrative, which was shared by many prominent pro-EU politicians. “The so-called populist wave, I think it was contained,” he said to a relieved and sympathetic audience. Taking it even a step further, and praising the higher turnout and a few carefully selected election results, he declared, “The real winner of this election is democracy.” If only.

True, the “populist wave” is contained. Populism per se didn’t win in the European elections, the populist radical right did. Left populism suffered big losses in its few remaining strongholds – La France Insoumise in France, Syriza in Greece and Podemos in Spain – while the idiosyncratic Five Star Movement lost too. While not all far-right parties won, overall the number of far-right MEPs increased significantly, mainly because a few populist radical right parties won (big) in big countries – notably Matteo Salvini’s League in Italy. In other words, populism is dead. Long live the far right!

 The far right didn’t sweep the EU elections. Europe’s centre is holding

But the analysis that populism was contained is also wrong because it externalises “populism” to parties that are part of the nontraditional political groups in Brussels, most notably the three rightwing Eurosceptic groups. Together these three groups have roughly as many MEPs as the pro-EU liberal and green groups combined. But there are more subtle changes within the various groups, which show a partly different story.

First, the new rightwing populist group, the European Alliance of Peoples and Nations will not only be (much) bigger than its predecessor, the Europe of Nations and Freedom (ENF), it will also have a new biggest party. Since 1989 the Front National (now called National Rally) has dominated the European populist radical right, accounting for almost half of the ENF seats in the previous legislature. But Salvini’s League is bigger than Marine Le Pen’s party. Moreover, with neither Le Pen nor Salvini actually in the European parliament, the new group will have more footsoldiers, but fewer (if any) generals.

Second, populist parties, as well as parties that pander to nativist and populist audiences, increased their representation, and therefore power, within the various “mainstream” groups. Poland’s Law and Justice party(PiS) became the biggest political party within the “conservative” Eurosceptic European Conservatives and Reformists group, accounting for almost half of all MEPs. It has traditionally been dominated by the British Conservative party. And Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party, from the 13th biggest country in the EU, is the third biggest faction within the “centre-right” European People’s party. In fact, Fidesz was the only party to win a majority of its country’s seats in this year’s European elections, albeit not in truly democratic elections.

Third, the two traditional big groups, the European People’s party and the centre-left Socialists & Democrats, lost their majority in the parliament, and will need to depend on (shifting?) coalitions with the liberals and greens. But the old and new centrist groups do not differ only ideologically, but also geographically. Power rests solidly within the west among the liberals and greens, but much less so in the European People’s party and the centre-left Socialists & Democrats. This could be highly problematic when it comes to sociocultural issues, as the vastly different responses between east and west towards the so-called refugee crisis of 2015 demonstrated.

Fourth, while Selmayr and others celebrate the increased turnout, which is indeed good news, with barely half of the population voting in the 2019 European elections, democracy is hardly the big winner. And the argument that the increased turnout was because of the importance of the EU or the prominence of European issues is wishful thinking, given that the biggest increases in turnout were in countries with particularly polarised national politics (such as Austria, Hungary and Romania).

Rather than a victory for democracy, the European elections, and the responses to the results, show how much populism in general, and the populist radical right in particular, has become mainstreamed and normalised. We find it normal that a neo-Nazi party is the third biggest party in a member state, that a populist radical right wins more than half of the vote in non-democratic elections, and that the populist radical right is the biggest party in several EU member states. We celebrate that “the majority has voted for pro-European parties”. We ignore that turnout in one in five member states was (well) below one-third of eligible voters.

In the end, though, the question of whether we have reached peak populism is not up to the voters. It was the political elites that made the populist radical right the dominant force in the political debate, adopting its issues and its frames. If the liberal democratic politicians want to, they can make this the turning point in European politics. But for that they don’t need just the “containment” of populism, they also need a coherent and convincing liberal democratic vision. And there, the European elections did not provide much good news.

• Cas Mudde is a Guardian US columnist

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/28/far-right-european-elections-eu-politics

 

[Padme]

3 minutes ago, DieselDaisy said:

You didn't mention the relative smallness. You said the far-right is in ''decline'', which is clearly not the case.

The Greens have grabbed more seats than the Far Right. Again I'm talking about this year EU election, Greece a few months ago and Austria just last weekend. In the UK both Far Right and Greens are on the rise.

[SoulMonster]

36 minutes ago, DieselDaisy said:

European elections are as good a barometer as any at discerning pan-European political allegiances, and we just had one this year!

I don't think you get it. You talked about a decline and I question whether that graph isn't just showing data for one time point. 

[DieselDaisy]

6 minutes ago, SoulMonster said:

I don't think you get it. You talked about a decline and I question whether that graph isn't just showing data for one time point. 

You have to look at the previous election - 2014. You will see an evident decline. Why do I have to point this out?

26 minutes ago, Padme said:

The Greens have grabbed more seats than the Far Right. Again I'm talking about this year EU election, Greece a few months ago and Austria just last weekend. In the UK both Far Right and Greens are on the rise.

Greens and Identité et démocratie are actually virtually neck-and-neck with 74 and 73 MEPs respectively. NB., Movimento 5 Stelle and The Brexit Party, and far-right parties such as Golden Dawn and Human Shield, do not belong to ID but are Non-Inscrits, who collectively produce circa 48 MEPs. 

FPÖ have collapsed because of Ibiza-gate, although I suppose that doesn't invalidate your point.

[DieselDaisy]

Why haven't the European Union commented on the appalling police brutality against the gilets jaunes in Macron's France? They're willing to endorse crude British remainiac campaigns (''bollocks to Brexit'') opposing the outcome of a democratic referendum in that said country, and support the collapse of Eurosceptic-far right parties such as Austria's FPÖ. They are willing to criticise Trump's America and Putin's Russia, yet they - people like Guy Verhofstadt - refuse to comment on Macron's action against the gilets jaunes? Why? These are people protesting with a grievance. 

I thought the EU was all ''cooperation, peace and love, solidarity, democracy, better together'', innit? 

Horrendous hypocrisy from the EU as per usual. 

[SoulMonster]

10 minutes ago, DieselDaisy said:

You have to look at the previous election - 2014. You will see an evident decline. Why do I have to point this out?

Because if you want to argue for a decline with evidence, it is just half-the-job to present data showing one time point. It makes us wonder if you don't really understand the data you presented, or maybe you don't really have evidence for your claim. 

[DieselDaisy]

1 minute ago, SoulMonster said:

Because if you want to argue for a decline with evidence, it is just half-the-job to present data showing one time point. It makes us wonder if you don't really understand the data you presented, or maybe you don't really have evidence for your claim. 

There are 9 points in time on that graph!

[SoulMonster]

1 hour ago, SoulMonster said:

I don't understand how that graph shows any change. Seems to me to just be a snapshot of how it was at a certain timepoint.

I was wrong and didn't look carefully at the graph. Sorry, Daisy! 

[DieselDaisy]

1 minute ago, SoulMonster said:

I was wrong and didn't look carefully at the graph. Sorry, Daisy! 

Fuck me! Utterly speechless!

(I might print this post off and frame it!).

[SoulMonster]

13 minutes ago, DieselDaisy said:

Fuck me! Utterly speechless!

(I might print this post off and frame it!).

Yeah, it is quite the milestone, me being wrong in one of our many discussions If I had just zoomed in on the graph! 

[Padme]

1 hour ago, DieselDaisy said:

Why haven't the European Union commented on the appalling police brutality against the gilets jaunes in Macron's France? They're willing to endorse crude British remainiac campaigns (''bollocks to Brexit'') opposing the outcome of a democratic referendum in that said country, and support the collapse of Eurosceptic-far right parties such as Austria's FPÖ. They are willing to criticise Trump's America and Putin's Russia, yet they - people like Guy Verhofstadt - refuse to comment on Macron's action against the gilets jaunes? Why? These are people protesting with a grievance. 

I thought the EU was all ''cooperation, peace and love, solidarity, democracy, better together'', innit? 

Horrendous hypocrisy from the EU as per usual. 

Because the gilets jaunes are far from being peaceful demostrators. And France has the authority to deal with their problems any way they wish to do it. They don't have to call the EU and ask for advice

1 hour ago, DieselDaisy said:

You have to look at the previous election - 2014. You will see an evident decline. Why do I have to point this out?

Greens and Identité et démocratie are actually virtually neck-and-neck with 74 and 73 MEPs respectively. NB., Movimento 5 Stelle and The Brexit Party, and far-right parties such as Golden Dawn and Human Shield, do not belong to ID but are Non-Inscrits, who collectively produce circa 48 MEPs. 

FPÖ have collapsed because of Ibiza-gate, although I suppose that doesn't invalidate your point.

 The 5 Stelle is far left. I'm talking about Greens and Far Right. Now if the Far Right is divided in 100 different fractions. Then they are not achiving much

[DieselDaisy]

8 minutes ago, Padme said:

Because the gilets jaunes are far from being peaceful demostrators. And France has the authority to deal with their problems any way they wish to do it. They don't have to call the EU and ask for advice

It is the EU's prerogative, yes, but then why has the EU voiced displeasure at unrest involving Eurosceptics. Why has it voiced pleasure at electoral misfortunes of Eurosceptic parties. You mentioned ''France has the authority to deal with their problems any way they wish'' yet why does the EU align itself with Britain's remainer grouping (including British ''opposition'' MPs). And why does the EU - in its rhetoric - put such a premium on ''human rights'' issues: the EU has criticised Poland for the 2015 Constitutional Court Crisis; the EU has criticised Orban for human rights abuses; yet, where is the EU's criticisms of President Macron?

11 minutes ago, Padme said:

 The 5 Stelle is far left. I'm talking about Greens and Far Right.

I didn't even include the Movimento 5 Stelle in the original calculation though. As I pointed out, irrespective on whether you see them as right or left-wing (truthfully there are elements of both), they're Non-Inscrits. Again, I reiterate,

Greens–European Free Alliance: 74 MEPs

Identité et démocratie: 73 MEPs

There is one MEP difference!

13 minutes ago, Padme said:

Now if the Far Right is divided in 100 different fractions. Then they are not achiving much

Not sure what this means?

[Basic_GnR_Fan]

18 minutes ago, DieselDaisy said:

It is the EU's prerogative, yes, but then why has the EU voiced displeasure at unrest involving Eurosceptics. Why has it voiced pleasure at electoral misfortunes of Eurosceptic parties. You mentioned ''France has the authority to deal with their problems any way they wish'' yet why does the EU align itself with Britain's remainer grouping (including British ''opposition'' MPs). And why does the EU - in its rhetoric - put such a premium on ''human rights'' issues: the EU has criticised Poland for the 2015 Constitutional Court Crisis; the EU has criticised Orban for human rights abuses; yet, where is the EU's criticisms of President Macron?

 

Because Macron is on board with THE agenda (globalist/open borders/neoliberal capitalist) he'll get the free pass while Orban gets demonized. It's all so transparent.

[Padme]

31 minutes ago, DieselDaisy said:

It is the EU's prerogative, yes, but then why has the EU voiced displeasure at unrest involving Eurosceptics. Why has it voiced pleasure at electoral misfortunes of Eurosceptic parties. You mentioned ''France has the authority to deal with their problems any way they wish'' yet why does the EU align itself with Britain's remainer grouping (including British ''opposition'' MPs). And why does the EU - in its rhetoric - put such a premium on ''human rights'' issues: the EU has criticised Poland for the 2015 Constitutional Court Crisis; the EU has criticised Orban for human rights abuses; yet, where is the EU's criticisms of President Macron?

I didn't even include the Movimento 5 Stelle in the original calculation though. As I pointed out, irrespective on whether you see them as right or left-wing (truthfully there are elements of both), they're Non-Inscrits. Again, I reiterate,

Greens–European Free Alliance: 74 MEPs

Identité et démocratie: 73 MEPs

There is one MEP difference!

Not sure what this means?

In the past it Greens didn't get such big amount of MEP. The Far Right kept what they had for the most part

Those who are not Inscrits, how can they be counted? Why are they Non Inscripts to begin with?

[DieselDaisy]

28 minutes ago, Padme said:

In the past it Greens didn't get such big amount of MEP. The Far Right kept what they had for the most part

Those who are not Inscrits, how can they be counted? Why are they Non Inscripts to begin with?

The reason Farage hasn't allied himself with ID, and its predecessor, Europe of Nations and Freedom, is that he is keen to distance himself from the more overtly far-right Marine Le Pen; she has tried to form an alliance with him in the past. Lega Nord, Salvini's party, are also in ID. Farage's old Europarty, Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy, collapsed with the collapse of UKIP basically (and the withdrawal of Farage from UKIP). It failed to re-register for the present European Parliament which is why The Brexit Party are Non-Inscrits as are M5S who were also in EFDD.

https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-party-nigel-farage-fails-to-form-political-group-in-european-parliament/

 

 

Edited October 1, 2019 by DieselDaisy

[DieselDaisy]

43 minutes ago, Basic_GnR_Fan said:

Because Macron is on board with THE agenda (globalist/open borders/neoliberal capitalist) he'll get the free pass while Orban gets demonized. It's all so transparent.

I was speaking rhetorically.

But yes, of course. The European Union is essentially a Franco-Germany project and Macron a Eurofederalist neoliberal - more so than Merkel in actual fact. 

[DieselDaisy]

Priti!!!