Levant/Mid-East Geo-Politics Thread

[Georgy Zhukov]

Taking Mosul would be a huge blow to ISIL and the first step to a Kurdish state. Pushing them out of Iraq and back into Syria, but will Syria allow Iraqi forces cross over?

I'm not sure how successful such a push would be, at least in the immediate future. As the article i posted above reminds everyone, it only took a couple hundred ISIS fighters to drive out 30k Iraqi troops from Mosul a year ago. Now there's several thousand ISIS forces within Mosul. Perhaps this new Iraqi/Kurd force will be a bit more effective, but we'll see.

And I'm not sure Syria is in any position to prevent Iraqi/Kurdish forces from crossing into it's border. It can't do much about ISIS, so not sure what they'd do against state-backed forces.

Fortunatly, they won't be going alone. The US will be directing the offensive. That said, because everyone has to be politically correct nowadays, the army will be fighting with one hand behind their backs. The now typical, don't shoot until fired upon crap, doesn't work with people like them.

The new video of ISIS members destroying ancient artifacts and statues with sledge hammers must make their followers and believers proud.

They slaughter the weak and destroy inanimate objects, real tough guys. Wait until a real army presents itself. Id bet most drop their weapons on the spot and try to leave like the cowards they are.

Well the logistics should be better now. It was poor logistics and communications that caused Mosul to fall. ISIL will not give up Mosul without a fight. They need to cut off ISIL in Iraq from Syria. That is very important. They are stronger in Syria for reasons that it is so divided there between opposition and government. But if they take Mosul and cut off the rest of ISIL from Syria they can be mopped up.

Egypt has been working on helping the Libyans expel ISIL from Sirte, Libya. Basically a war on multiple fronts.

Good for Egypt, its great that a Muslim country recognizes what is happening instead of sleeping at the wheel. Their president was the first to stand up and renounce the Muslim extremists and call them what they are. The surrounding Arab nations should follow their lead and be proactive.

They've all been doing it. Jordan especially.

[T.wa.T]

Taking Mosul would be a huge blow to ISIL and the first step to a Kurdish state. Pushing them out of Iraq and back into Syria, but will Syria allow Iraqi forces cross over?

I'm not sure how successful such a push would be, at least in the immediate future. As the article i posted above reminds everyone, it only took a couple hundred ISIS fighters to drive out 30k Iraqi troops from Mosul a year ago. Now there's several thousand ISIS forces within Mosul. Perhaps this new Iraqi/Kurd force will be a bit more effective, but we'll see.

And I'm not sure Syria is in any position to prevent Iraqi/Kurdish forces from crossing into it's border. It can't do much about ISIS, so not sure what they'd do against state-backed forces.

Fortunatly, they won't be going alone. The US will be directing the offensive. That said, because everyone has to be politically correct nowadays, the army will be fighting with one hand behind their backs. The now typical, don't shoot until fired upon crap, doesn't work with people like them.

The new video of ISIS members destroying ancient artifacts and statues with sledge hammers must make their followers and believers proud.

They slaughter the weak and destroy inanimate objects, real tough guys. Wait until a real army presents itself. Id bet most drop their weapons on the spot and try to leave like the cowards they are.

Well the logistics should be better now. It was poor logistics and communications that caused Mosul to fall. ISIL will not give up Mosul without a fight. They need to cut off ISIL in Iraq from Syria. That is very important. They are stronger in Syria for reasons that it is so divided there between opposition and government. But if they take Mosul and cut off the rest of ISIL from Syria they can be mopped up.

Egypt has been working on helping the Libyans expel ISIL from Sirte, Libya. Basically a war on multiple fronts.

Good for Egypt, its great that a Muslim country recognizes what is happening instead of sleeping at the wheel. Their president was the first to stand up and renounce the Muslim extremists and call them what they are. The surrounding Arab nations should follow their lead and be proactive.

They've all been doing it. Jordan especially.

Right. I forgot to mention Jordan, unfortunatly it took their pilot being burned to death, which may or may not have happened anyway but the more that unite the better. I seem to recall Turkey coming around about something too.

There is to, the "coalition", of nations but their roles are so small. Helpful to a degree but small.

[Georgy Zhukov]

Well they were flying missions against ISIL, that is why the plane crashed in the first place. Jordan claims it was a malfunction but ISIL claims they've shot it down. Either way, Jordan is committed to destroying ISIL.

Iran has been involved in fighting ISIL whether the Arabs, Western allies and Turks like it or not.

[supercool]

did you notice that 'jihadi john' is impersonating kratos from 'god of war' with his loud and deep voice ?

they have very similar voices.

[Len Cnut]

Can everyone stop calling him John please, he has nothing to do with Lennon and never will. Im gonna do a terror attack on the media in defence of The Beatles if they keep calling him after my mate John Lennon. My mate who died three years before i was born

[supercool]

[Facekicker]

Netanyahu addressing congress was appalling. The perfect example of the poisonous bile that spills out of the mouths of warmongers.

What do you think of this statement he made for example?

“If Iran were to acquire nuclear weapons, this could presage catastrophic consequences, not only for my country, and not only for the Middle East, but for all mankind,” adding that, “the deadline for attaining this goal is getting extremely close.”

[magisme]

Fuck Israel.

[Facekicker]

Still waiting for someone to catch why I quoted that statement by Netanyahu....

[Georgy Zhukov]

In the early hours of the morning I was looking up maps of the Middle East throughout history and it hit me, the problems began right around the end of the first World War when France and Great Britain divided up the Middle East for themselves. Why not just allow these people to create their own nations? Nothing extreme like Islamic State where they commit crimes against humanity, but for example. There has been interest in uniting Syria and Iraq into one country, that will make Israel nervous but they can feel better if Kurdistan is made into a state out of Syria, Iraq, Turkey and Iran.

Oh and fuck Netanyahu. That asshole is no better at flapping hot air than Ahmadinejad. Fucking conspiracy theorists. If only his brother were still alive.

[Georgy Zhukov]

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2015/03/anti-netanyahu-rally-draws-huge-crowd-israeli-city-150307222711606.html

Lets hope they kick Netanyahu out.

Edited March 8, 2015 by Georgy Zhukov

[downzy]

Netanyahu addressing congress was appalling. The perfect example of the poisonous bile that spills out of the mouths of warmongers.

What do you think of this statement he made for example?

“If Iran were to acquire nuclear weapons, this could presage catastrophic consequences, not only for my country, and not only for the Middle East, but for all mankind,” adding that, “the deadline for attaining this goal is getting extremely close.”

He's been claiming that Iran has been a year or so away from a nuclear bomb for 15 years. A war monger if I've ever seen one. Peace in the middle east will never happen with dipshits like this in charge.

And one can only imagine had a Democratic Congress invited a foreign leader to speak before Congress to undermine a Republican President. Let's call a spade a spade. This was as disrespectful as one can get. If Israel is truly an "ally" of the United States, they'll show the door to this asshat in the coming election. He does more harm than good.

[Facekicker]

Yep that quote is from 20, that right, 20 fucking years ago. Last night, the former Director of Mossad called his speech before congress as - "Bullshit."

Glad to see there was a protest march in Tel Aviv too

[Georgy Zhukov]

I believe the Israelis want to move on and live in the 21st Century just like the people in Iran. The extremist shit gets so old.

[downzy]

Israel elections are set for tomorrow. Polls indicate this might be it for Bibi. Here's hoping, at least.

[Johnny Drama]

He's got Chuck Norris on his side though.

[downzy]

He's got Chuck Norris on his side though.

So did Mike Huckabee in 2008.

[downzy]

Well, I take it back. I guess the Chuck Norris endorsement saved Bibi's hide

It's either that, or the last minute fear mongering and outright rejection of a two-state solution. My guess is this will only polarize the U.S. - Israeli relationship even more, as I'm not sure how a Democratic President continues to give Israel cover at the UN when its leader contradicts U.S. policy regarding a two-state solution in Israel/Palestine. However, I do see Republicans also balking at a two-state solution going forward.

[streak]

He has outright said what we knew all along. The US have got to do something.

[downzy]

He has outright said what we knew all along. The US have got to do something.

And it looks like they are, finally. As some headlines have made note the past couple of days, Bibi might have won the election, but Israel is certainly going to lose diplomatically as a result.

Glad to see the U.S. considering removing diplomatic cover for Israel at the UN. About f'n time. Not sure how Bibi thought he could reconcile his refusal on a two-state solution with U.S. policy on the matter. Congrats Bibi, you won re-election by spitting on your benefactor and really the friend who matters most. Idiot.

http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/03/18/from-tel-aviv-to-turtle-bay-israel-palestinians-un-resolution/

[downzy]

Bang on:

"Israel and the United States have a long, deep friendship. It’s based on shared interests and values. But it’s no longer clear that the old interests and values are shared. The U.S. government believes that Palestinian Arabs, like Jews, are entitled to a sovereign state. We believe it’s wrong to build settlements on land that doesn’t belong to you. We believe that ethnic minorities are entitled to participate in the political process and that they shouldn’t be vilified to scare up votes. The events of the past week suggest that the prime minister of Israel doesn’t believe these things and that most of his people either agree with him or don’t care enough to vote the other way."

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/foreigners/2015/03/benjamin_netanyahu_isn_t_the_problem_the_united_states_has_enabled_israel.html

[Dazey]

Get rid of Israel. Middle East solved.

[Len Cnut]

Bang on:

"Israel and the United States have a long, deep friendship. Its based on shared interests and values. But its no longer clear that the old interests and values are shared. The U.S. government believes that Palestinian Arabs, like Jews, are entitled to a sovereign state. We believe its wrong to build settlements on land that doesnt belong to you. We believe that ethnic minorities are entitled to participate in the political process and that they shouldnt be vilified to scare up votes. The events of the past week suggest that the prime minister of Israel doesnt believe these things and that most of his people either agree with him or dont care enough to vote the other way."

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/foreigners/2015/03/benjamin_netanyahu_isn_t_the_problem_the_united_states_has_enabled_israel.html

Its gonna be interesting to see how Islamists react to that shit cuz it stands contrary to the 'they're against us' thing at the core of Islamism. I worry though that its gone so far now that those guys are actually seriously gunning for their complete takeover bullshit. They're a minority of nutters though, if the israel palestine puzzle is ever straightened out it'll take the legs out of their cause, it'd be difficult to recruit and get people on side with that shit.

It begs an interesting question though, if terrorism led to more attention on the middle east and increased initiative in resolving that on-going issue then, in a sense, didnt terrorism kinda work?

[downzy]

Bang on:

"Israel and the United States have a long, deep friendship. Its based on shared interests and values. But its no longer clear that the old interests and values are shared. The U.S. government believes that Palestinian Arabs, like Jews, are entitled to a sovereign state. We believe its wrong to build settlements on land that doesnt belong to you. We believe that ethnic minorities are entitled to participate in the political process and that they shouldnt be vilified to scare up votes. The events of the past week suggest that the prime minister of Israel doesnt believe these things and that most of his people either agree with him or dont care enough to vote the other way."

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/foreigners/2015/03/benjamin_netanyahu_isn_t_the_problem_the_united_states_has_enabled_israel.html

Its gonna be interesting to see how Islamists react to that shit cuz it stands contrary to the 'they're against us' thing at the core of Islamism. I worry though that its gone so far now that those guys are actually seriously gunning for their complete takeover bullshit. They're a minority of nutters though, if the israel palestine puzzle is ever straightened out it'll take the legs out of their cause, it'd be difficult to recruit and get people on side with that shit.

It begs an interesting question though, if terrorism led to more attention on the middle east and increased initiative in resolving that on-going issue then, in a sense, didnt terrorism kinda work?

Your second point is an interesting question, but one that I wouldn't answer with perhaps the cynicism that is implicitly suggested. I think most issues or areas that need fixing can find solutions through responsible, mature, and open dialogue, where the house doesn't need to be blown up to be put back together again. I look at the Good Friday Agreements, which I argue were not forged as a last resort to violence but an attempt to rise above it. Conversely, there are times when walls must be turned into ash before opposing sides move past the issues that hold them back. Call me naive, but I think there still exists a path where the parties involved need not resort to a scorched earth policy to arrive at a final peaceful agreement.

Moreover, I'm not sure if we can consider acts of violence as terrorist. I know you and I have had this debate before regarding what constitutes a terrorist attack and what does not. With respect to Israel and Palestine, I think it's important to distinguish responses and provocation for the right to exist, practice respective religions freely, and achieve and have respected statehood versus acts that are only meant to destroy and oppress. A Palestinian that resorts to violence as a means to protest living conditions in Gaza is not the same as a suicide bomber who kills in the name of Allah for the purpose of crushing the state of Israel.

[Len Cnut]

Bang on:

"Israel and the United States have a long, deep friendship. Its based on shared interests and values. But its no longer clear that the old interests and values are shared. The U.S. government believes that Palestinian Arabs, like Jews, are entitled to a sovereign state. We believe its wrong to build settlements on land that doesnt belong to you. We believe that ethnic minorities are entitled to participate in the political process and that they shouldnt be vilified to scare up votes. The events of the past week suggest that the prime minister of Israel doesnt believe these things and that most of his people either agree with him or dont care enough to vote the other way."

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/foreigners/2015/03/benjamin_netanyahu_isn_t_the_problem_the_united_states_has_enabled_israel.html

Its gonna be interesting to see how Islamists react to that shit cuz it stands contrary to the 'they're against us' thing at the core of Islamism. I worry though that its gone so far now that those guys are actually seriously gunning for their complete takeover bullshit. They're a minority of nutters though, if the israel palestine puzzle is ever straightened out it'll take the legs out of their cause, it'd be difficult to recruit and get people on side with that shit.

It begs an interesting question though, if terrorism led to more attention on the middle east and increased initiative in resolving that on-going issue then, in a sense, didnt terrorism kinda work?

Your second point is an interesting question, but one that I wouldn't answer with perhaps the cynicism that is implicitly suggested. I think most issues or areas that need fixing can find solutions through responsible, mature, and open dialogue, where the house doesn't need to be blown up to be put back together again. I look at the Good Friday Agreements, which I argue were not forged as a last resort to violence but an attempt to rise above it. Conversely, there are times when walls must be turned into ash before opposing sides move past the issues that hold them back. Call me naive, but I think there still exists a path where the parties involved need not resort to a scorched earth policy to arrive at a final peaceful agreement.

Moreover, I'm not sure if we can consider acts of violence as terrorist. I know you and I have had this debate before regarding what constitutes a terrorist attack and what does not. With respect to Israel and Palestine, I think it's important to distinguish responses and provocation for the right to exist, practice respective religions freely, and achieve and have respected statehood versus acts that are only meant to destroy and oppress. A Palestinian that resorts to violence as a means to protest living conditions in Gaza is not the same as a suicide bomber who kills in the name of Allah for the purpose of crushing the state of Israel.

For your first paragraph, I'd love for it to go the way you laid out there, that'd be amazing.

For the second paragraph fair enough but they ain't the only people that cite Palestine as their cause, so do Al Qaeda.