The Scottish Independence Referendum Thread

[Graeme]

You are wanting to become, Scandinavia, yet, Scandinavians are perhaps the most heavily taxed people on the planet - they pay dearly for that social infrastructure. Now, is an Independent government going to increase taxation to pay for this? Food banks? Bills? The now - poor old them - jobless, Dragoon Guards?

By the sounds of it devolved government has made a hash of things already!

Also, the thing about this 'not being a vote for Salmond' is absolute hokum. Trust me: vote yes and this guy, is, your new PM.

I certainly hope so, but I hope they do it in the right way. For example, having a more transparent system of tax than the UK setup, which is riddled with loopholes exploited by everyone from comedians and MPs to massive multinational corporations, taking over £10 billion out of the public purse annually (while the Daily Mail continues to successfully demonise those on benefits and immigrants as being a "drain on society" despite the amount they take out being a -fraction- of this). Also, Scotland's current land-ownership arrangement is a hangover from feudalism and the clearances whereby more than half of Scotland is owned by fewer than 500 people (the Duke and Duchess of Argyll alone have a 60,000 acre estate) and their tax avoidance alone takes £40m per year out of the Scottish tax count, whilst the money they bring into the economy through hunting, shooting and fishing is generally kept on those estates. In addition to ensuring that these estates pay the taxes due to them now, a land tax could be introduced. This might either bring money in if the landowners pay it, or if they choose to downsize and sell portions of their estates then it would open up some of the most sparsely populated and underused land in Europe to all sorts of developments, like the Hydro-electric power station at Ben Cruachan. I would hope that Scotland would be able to raise the proportion of its GDP it takes through tax without running the middle income brackets into the ground.

I explained to you two pages ago that the RSDG would continue to operate under the jurisdiction of the UK MoD, Scottish soldiers could continue to serve as commonwealth citizens and the British military would not want to lose 15% of its personnel overnight, I don't think their jobs are under threat.

That's like saying that a vote for staying in the Union is a vote for Boris Johnson to be Prime Minister. He, like Alex Salmond is a high-profile proponent of his side of the constitutional debate who many postulate will be the next leader of the Conservative party. I'm sure you'd agree it's not outside the realms of possibility, but not a 100% certainty either. Likewise with Salmond being the first Prime Minister of Scotland. Anyway, my personal opinion on the matter has nothing to do with him.

GTF, I'm no economist, thanks for the perspective. I'm a geographer and we tend to approach the same problems from a different angle, arguing that what makes sense from the point of view of the market often makes very little sense from the point of view of the wellbeing of (all but a small minority of) people. What do you feel about the contention that we're seeing all of these dire warnings from business and economists because it creates uncertainty, anathema to the market, but necessary for the implementation of political change?

[GivenToFly]

GTF, I'm no economist, thanks for the perspective. I'm a geographer and we tend to approach the same problems from a different angle, arguing that what makes sense from the point of view of the market often makes very little sense from the point of view of the wellbeing of (all but a small minority of) people. What do you feel about the contention that we're seeing all of these dire warnings from business and economists because it creates uncertainty, anathema to the market, but necessary for the implementation of political change?

Truthfully I haven't been following the matter closely so I don't have the facts and figures, so all I can give you is some general perspective that you've probably heard a lot lately.

As I've already mentioned what I want to know is who deals with RBS's bad debt, which is massive and unlike Lloyd's RBS has been more a liability than an asset for the government. Currently the UK government owns about 2/3 of the company. Its liabilities dwarf Scotland's gdp. Hell, I was hearing about some banks wanting to relocate in case of independence - would probably be better for Scotland if RBS left. It might be better for the entire Scottish banking system if they left for the UK so they'd have access to a lender of last resort.

I've also mentioned (and so have you) that using another country's currency is doable and has been done. Thing is, it's been done by countries that were in pretty bad shape already and could go nowhere but up (like some Central American or African countries) or by small countries (like the tiny countries in Europe that use the Euro). The amount of effective money in the economy has to increase at least as fast as total output, otherwise you get deflation and that's disastrous. So what do you need?

1) A well functioning banking system that give you a great amount of effective money from a small amount of base money (basically shifts it around by fast sequences of deposits and loans). Problem is the banking system works on trust and in periods of uncertainty it breaks down.

2) And/or: Current account surplus with the country that issues the currency. Do you have it? Can you get it fast? Again uncertainty: will there be a lot of capital withdrawal from the country? Probably.

3) And/or: Large currency reserves. Something to hold you off until you fix the previous two problems.

Furthermore if there are economic troubles, which is probable, there is no option for monetary policy. You're in the position that countries in currency unions are but without any power. I don't know why there is so much keenness to hold on to the GBP; currency unions look to me like a long term, blue skies sort of thing, that create trouble in a crisis. With a new currency of your own you would have a one time loss at first in terms of very high inflation as the currency gets battered on the markets but then you have your own monetary authority to deal with the problem. And a few years down the line once things are going well you can join the eurozone.

So yeah, first few years best case scenario you're skirting disaster. Worst case, well, have you seen Greece lately? The question is: do you think the long term benefits are worth this risk? From what I can surmise from what I've been hearing lately my personal opinion is the answer is yes. But I'm not in Scotland and the impact on my life is minimal. If I was there, I don't know what I'd vote.

As it happens, in a way I'm currently a geographer as well. Not really though. But I work in transport consultancy and I'm surrounded by geographers in my office and I work with maps a lot.

[Snake-Pit]

I don't think Scotland are aware of the fact that they're going to be needing a bail out in 5 or 6 years and that the UK will foot a large chuck of it, so they'd get money from Westminster anyway.

I mean, if this pot head with a 140 IQ from Croydon can see it, then no one who can't even give thsi argument credit has the foresight for intelligent discussion... They just want to wave Scottish flags and live in la la land thinking they're better than Ireland, Greece or Portugal.

[Dazey]

I don't think Scotland are aware of the fact that they're going to be needing a bail out in 5 or 6 years and that the UK will foot a large chuck of it, so they'd get money from Westminster anyway.

I mean, if this pot head with a 140 IQ from Croydon can see it, then no one who can't even give thsi argument credit has the foresight for intelligent discussion... They just want to wave Scottish flags and live in la la land thinking they're better than Ireland, Greece or Portugal.

If you've got a 140 IQ then I'm Maggie Thatcher!!!!

[GivenToFly]

At this point I'd like to see a yes vote just to piss off Diesel Daisy.

[The Sandman]

Snake, think you may be missing a decimal point somewhere between those three digits.

[DieselDaisy]

At this point I'd like to see a yes vote just to piss off Diesel Daisy.

Well that might not piss me off as much as you think as it would, sans the Scottish 'loony left' voting bloc, effectively remove labour from English government, forever. There will always be an England - as I said. England would get the Tory government we desire. Perhaps we can re-institute fox hunting and give the Queen back her boat.

[Len Cnut]

At this point I'd like to see a yes vote just to piss off Diesel Daisy.

Well that might not piss me off as much as you think as it would, sans the Scottish 'loony left' voting bloc, effectively remove labour from English government, forever. There will always be an England - as I said. England would get the Tory government we desire. Perhaps we can re-institute fox hunting and give the Queen back her boat.

Go on son, tell em

I don't think Scotland are aware of the fact that they're going to be needing a bail out in 5 or 6 years and that the UK will foot a large chuck of it, so they'd get money from Westminster anyway.

I mean, if this pot head with a 140 IQ from Croydon can see it, then no one who can't even give thsi argument credit has the foresight for intelligent discussion... They just want to wave Scottish flags and live in la la land thinking they're better than Ireland, Greece or Portugal.

140, really? Fuck me, the bloke that escaped from Alcatraz had 130, you'd have trouble escaping a telephone booth I love you to bits Snakes but come on, you're not the sharpest knife in the drawer by any stretch, you belong with me in the plank category of the forums posters The skunk smoking planks Here, that sounds like a band, go on, you on the Les Paul and me with a wig on doing my best Yoko Ono, if that don't win the next X Factor then I'm an Estate Agent!

Edited September 13, 2014 by Lennie Godber

[DieselDaisy]

Incidentally, Deutsche bank, were saying it would be a disaster. Deutsche bank: German. Guess what the SNP reply was. You guessed it, that old chestnut:

'Westminster scaremongering''

[The Sandman]

We draw closer...

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-vote-rigging-fears-1-3533762

And more allegations of potential electoral malpractice emerge.

Something like several hundred more people in the 16-17 age group in Dundee have been registered to vote than actually live there. Three year olds getting polling cards.

If they can't run a referendum... can they be trusted to run themselves?!

[Snake-Pit]

I've sort of accepted in my head that Scotland's gone independent and David Cameron broke up the country.

Which kind of sucks but Scotland will be the 14th richest country in the world, richer than Japan (which sounded a lot more impressive in 1997 than that does today) and richer than the United Kingdom.

Edited September 15, 2014 by Snake-Pit

[Snake-Pit]

Why o why o why can't London do the same if independence means you become richer than the United Kingdom and therefore your citizens better off because the money they raise is being spent on them and not spread out.

[The Sandman]

Yeah Snake, us Londoners will go separatist and we can leave everyone else to fend for themselves.

Interesting that Yes could wipe £30k off your house value.

And, "Scottish patients on the waiting list for vital transplants could be sent to the back of the queue if the country votes for independence." Oh dear.

[Snake-Pit]

My eyes just shun red with daggers when you said 30k off my 30k house. I'm kidding but this place is a fire hazard.

[sturginho]

Why would yes wipe £30k off my house value?

[The Sandman]

Why would yes wipe £30k off my house value?

"Property website Zoopla suggested that a Yes vote in Thursday's referendum could cause as bad a shock to the markets as the financial crisis. Uncertainty over Scotland's economic future and the potential loss of skilled jobs as businesses relocate to England would reduce demand for housing and depress prices, the company said."

Obviously, all conjecture.

[sturginho]

Why would yes wipe £30k off my house value?

"Property website Zoopla suggested that a Yes vote in Thursday's referendum could cause as bad a shock to the markets as the financial crisis. Uncertainty over Scotland's economic future and the potential loss of skilled jobs as businesses relocate to England would reduce demand for housing and depress prices, the company said."

Obviously, all conjecture.

It would reduce demand for housing in Scotland, if businesses relocate to England that would stimulate demand in England not reduce it shirley?

Edited September 15, 2014 by sturginho

[Dazey]

Why would yes wipe £30k off my house value?

"Property website Zoopla suggested that a Yes vote in Thursday's referendum could cause as bad a shock to the markets as the financial crisis. Uncertainty over Scotland's economic future and the potential loss of skilled jobs as businesses relocate to England would reduce demand for housing and depress prices, the company said."

Obviously, all conjecture.

It would reduce demand for housing in Scotland, if businesses relocate to England that would stimulate demand in England not reduce it shirley?

He's saying that businesses relocating to England would reduce demand in Scotland and therefore prices would fall in Scotland.

[The Sandman]

Why would yes wipe £30k off my house value?

"Property website Zoopla suggested that a Yes vote in Thursday's referendum could cause as bad a shock to the markets as the financial crisis. Uncertainty over Scotland's economic future and the potential loss of skilled jobs as businesses relocate to England would reduce demand for housing and depress prices, the company said."

Obviously, all conjecture.

It would reduce demand for housing in Scotland, if businesses relocate to England that would stimulate demand in England not reduce it shirley?

He's saying that businesses relocating to England would reduce demand in Scotland and therefore prices would fall in Scotland.

Which, lots have said they will: including Royal Bank of Scotland.

Or, raise prices - which multiple others have said they will: John Lewis/Waitrose, ASDA, etc.

[Snake-Pit]

Scotland seem to be oil happy.

Too oil happy.

They're banking their entire future on a finite resource, smart.

[Axl_morris]

I've not heard enough evidence that supports a yes support from me (i cant vote anyway)

I don't believe Scotland can run itself better without the strength of 65 million tax payers.

I believe the pound will decrease in value for england and scotland if they keep it. If scotland goes Euro i believe people will lose out on a % of savings and pensions.

Above all else i can see it being a pain in the ass for many travelling scots like myself to frequent back home. Also i believe many companies wont expand into scotland and some cases rehouse down in england. Everything from food chains to the Royal bank of scotland.

IF scotland does manage to have a successful economy and plenty international trade, i still think the daily lives of the individual will feel more of the negative effects than the positive.

For instance, a healthy economy might bring a single mum £10 more in tax credits in a month and her town might benifit with a new employment centre. However everyone might have additional phone charges for phoning england. Changing currency. An under funded NHS equivilent. Pay for a scottish passport. Closure of businesses restricted by being in an international country. A weak defense force. Zero perks from not being in the EU.

Of course all this will be decided in a building that cost £400,000 to build in edinburgh vastly over the original planned price. So to give the same people 100% spending of your TAX money for a whole country is one big gamble.

Edited September 15, 2014 by Axl_morris

[Kittiara]

It's going to be really interesting. For purely sentimental reasons, I hope that the "no vote" wins. I love Scotland and I see the Scottish as a part of "us" - the people who all share this rainy, cloudy, beautiful (couple of) island(s) and who share a common history. Sentimentality, though, is not a good enough reason for the people of Scotland to remain in the union. There are some very valid reasons for wanting to leave.

The way Britain is heading is depressing. Increasing inequality, the targetting of the poorest and most vulnerable members of society, a decreasing lack of privacy, business interests overruling humanity... I can't blame Scottish people for wanting something better. As someone who lives in the north of England, I would love it if you could take us with you, and I know that I am far from alone in that!

Sure, it's no doubt not going to be easy. It can even go horribly wrong. That's not to say that you shouldn't try. It's not looking like British politics is heading in a very pleasant direction, and determining your future based on the fear of "what-ifs" is likely to lead to more of the same. Sometimes you've just got to go for it.

Edited September 16, 2014 by Kittiara

[DieselDaisy]

It's going to be really interesting. For purely sentimental reasons, I hope that the "no vote" wins. I love Scotland and I see the Scottish as a part of "us" - the people who all share this rainy, cloudy, beautiful (couple of) island(s) and who share a common history. Sentimentality, though, is not a good enough reason for the people of Scotland to remain in the union. There are some very valid reasons for wanting to leave.

The way Britain is heading is depressing. Increasing inequality, the targetting of the poorest and most vulnerable members of society, a decreasing lack of privacy, business interests overruling humanity... I can't blame Scottish people for wanting something better. As someone who lives in the north of England, I would love it if you could take us with you, and I know that I am far from alone in that!

Sure, it's no doubt not going to be easy. It can even go horribly wrong. That's not to say that you shouldn't try. It's not looking like British politics is heading in a very pleasant direction, and determining your future based on the fear of "what-ifs" is likely to lead to more of the same. Sometimes you've just got to go for it.

Why are British politics necessarily, bleaker, than say, five years ago? I do not understand this point in the slightest. Britain and the sterling has largely survived the global recession, unlike, various Euro zone countries such as Ireland and Spain. Britain is actually, beginning to thrive as an economy - just ask the IMF.

[The Sandman]

About to board a train to Scotland to stop this happening. #bettertogether

[Len Cnut]

Front cover of The Mirror goes:

Cameron: dont destroy great britain just to get rid of me

Some days you wake up in the morning and realise just how big a cunt people think you are eh Dave?