Covid-19 Thread

[gunsguy]

1 hour ago, Swampfox said:

There is no vaccine for Covid 19 but there is a flu vaccine yet the flu kills more people than Covid.  Andrew Cuomo acknowledged 66% of those who had Corona virus were staying at home.  So puzzling! 

The virus cannot be compared to the flu we see every year.  The flu vaccine is basically a guess of what strain and mutation they are likely to see, they need months to make it and sometimes its not effective by the time its ready.  The flu is a rapidly mutated virus with many strains.  They don't know yet about covid, covid may mutate rapidly and change drastically or it can be like other viruses we have had forever and had vaccines unchanged for decades.

If you live in North America were you vaccinated against deadly viruses as a child?  Some of those are great examples of vaccines that worked and continue to work today.

[downzy]

2 hours ago, Swampfox said:

There is no vaccine for Covid 19 but there is a flu vaccine yet the flu kills more people than Covid.  Andrew Cuomo acknowledged 66% of those who had Corona virus were staying at home.  So puzzling! 

Where are you getting your numbers?

COVID-19 has killed far more people in the US than the estimated number of people who died of the flu this year:

https://www.health.com/condition/cold-flu-sinus/how-many-people-die-of-the-flu-every-year

The CFR rate for most flu seasons are almost always below 0.1 percent. It’s estimated they CFR for COVID-19 will come in anywhere from 0.40 to 1.00 percent. 

Keep in mind the US has seen far more COVID-19 related deaths in three months with wide ranging social distancing measures than the flu does with zero social distancing measures. Yes, there is a yearly vaccine, but it’s effectiveness is never close to providing blanket immunity nor does even a majority of people actually get a yearly flu shot (fluctuates between 30 to 40 percent). 

So again, what are you talking about?

[SoulMonster]

8 hours ago, Gibsonfender2323 said:

Covid 19 still has caused less deaths then the Flu or H1N1

Only because we have done dramatic things to reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2. If we had carried on with no mitigating measures - like we usually do for seasonal flu - the death toll from COVID-19 would have been many-fold higher by now. 

[SoulMonster]

Brazil now has the second highest number of known infected, after USA. Both USA and Brazil have leaders who have trivialized the disease, said it was a hoax, been against social distancing, promoted fake drugs. The conduct of a president matters. What a president say has consequences. What a president do is imitated by followers. A president is a role model. And Trump and Bolsonaro are terrible role models.

[Gavin82]

U.S confìrms its nearly @ 100.000 deaths with 1.6 million cases

[Swampfox]

7 hours ago, downzy said:

Where are you getting your numbers?

COVID-19 has killed far more people in the US than the estimated number of people who died of the flu this year:

https://www.health.com/condition/cold-flu-sinus/how-many-people-die-of-the-flu-every-year

The CFR rate for most flu seasons are almost always below 0.1 percent. It’s estimated they CFR for COVID-19 will come in anywhere from 0.40 to 1.00 percent. 

Keep in mind the US has seen far more COVID-19 related deaths in three months with wide ranging social distancing measures than the flu does with zero social distancing measures. Yes, there is a yearly vaccine, but it’s effectiveness is never close to providing blanket immunity nor does even a majority of people actually get a yearly flu shot (fluctuates between 30 to 40 percent). 

So again, what are you talking about?

In regards to number of deaths I meant overall not just this year.  But obviously they're still learning more and more every day about the disease and how to treat people. The flu has been around for a long time and we've learned how to fight it through medicine and yearly vaccines.  My point was that the stay at home orders didn't work and if we do get a vaccine through operation warp speed covid-19 should go away.  If it mutates before then the world is fucked.

[spunko12345]

16 minutes ago, Swampfox said:

In regards to number of deaths I meant overall not just this year.  But obviously they're still learning more and more every day about the disease and how to treat people. The flu has been around for a long time and we've learned how to fight it through medicine and yearly vaccines.  My point was that the stay at home orders didn't work and if we do get a vaccine through operation warp speed covid-19 should go away.  If it mutates before then the world is fucked.

What makes you believe the stay at home measures didn't work? I suppose it's important to clarify what is meant by "worked" obviously many people have still died and continue to die but surely by the vast majority taking the message on board and staying at home it has so far prevented many unnecessary deaths. Which I'd class as a success compared to the alternative.

[SoulMonster]

1 hour ago, Swampfox said:

My point was that the stay at home orders didn't work and if we do get a vaccine through operation warp speed covid-19 should go away.  If it mutates before then the world is fucked.

Stay at home, like other social distancing measures, has been proven to work. It is considered the main reason most countries have managed to reduce the infection rate to a point where less and less people are getting infected. This is basic science, if you are not in contact with people who is infected with COVID-19, you can't get infected yourself. The causative agent (SARS-CoV2) hasn't got legs or wings and is dependent upon close contact with new hosts for infection. So if you actually stay at home and aren't in contact with anyone, you will not get infected.

And it is unlikely we will be able to eradicate COVID-19 through vaccinations. For most viral infectious diseases vaccines aren't that efficient. There are only two examples (I believe), of viral disease that we have been able to completely eradicate through vaccinations. More likely what we will see with COVID-19 is similar to what we see with influenza (seasonal reoccurrences that require development of new vaccines).

And the world isn't fucked if the virus mutates before we get a vaccine. The virus has already mutated lots of times since COVID-19 emerged. It is a constant process. What we fear is of course that it mutates in such a way that its infection rate increases, or so that the symptoms worsen. But most likely that won't happen. Most mutations are neutral in nature. Secondly, even if it mutates to become a deadlier disease, there is no reason to abandon hope that a vaccine will be efficient. We might have to optimize the vaccine to be efficient towards the newly mutated virus (if it has mutated in such a way that the vaccine doesn't work fully), but that is also not necessarily required. 

[downzy]

2 hours ago, Swampfox said:

My point was that the stay at home orders didn't work and if we do get a vaccine through operation warp speed covid-19 should go away.

 

44 minutes ago, SoulMonster said:

Stay at home, like other social distancing measures, has been proven to work. It is considered the main reason most countries have managed to reduce the infection rate to a point where less and less people are getting infected. This is basic science, if you are not in contact with people who is infected with COVID-19, you can't get infected yourself. The causative agent (SARS-CoV2) hasn't got legs or wings and is dependent upon close contact with new hosts for infection. So if you actually stay at home and aren't in contact with anyone, you will not get infected.

What he said...

[Swampfox]

1 hour ago, spunko12345 said:

What makes you believe the stay at home measures didn't work? I suppose it's important to clarify what is meant by "worked" obviously many people have still died and continue to die but surely by the vast majority taking the message on board and staying at home it has so far prevented many unnecessary deaths. Which I'd class as a success compared to the alternative.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisettevoytko/2020/05/06/majority-of-new-coronavirus-cases-in-new-york-are-from-people-staying-at-home-not-traveling-or-working/#90797311655e

 

[downzy]

5 minutes ago, Swampfox said:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisettevoytko/2020/05/06/majority-of-new-coronavirus-cases-in-new-york-are-from-people-staying-at-home-not-traveling-or-working/#90797311655e

 

Fixed link.

But just from the title alone, it's absurd to claim that separating people through stay at home orders doesn't work.  The fact that people are still getting sick even though they're staying at home doesn't negate the fact that the transmission frequency would exponentially higher if governments did nothing and let people congregate as they please.  This is basic.

[Swampfox]

Lockdowns just delay the inevitable.  No country can stay locked down forever.  I was on board for the first two week order to slow the spread but at this point states need to reopen carefully.  

[SoulMonster]

31 minutes ago, Swampfox said:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisettevoytko/2020/05/06/majority-of-new-coronavirus-cases-in-new-york-are-from-people-staying-at-home-not-traveling-or-working/#90797311655e

You misunderstand the article. The article isn't saying that people get infected despite being on stay-at-home measures, but that people are being infected despite not being at work or travelling. It tries to dispel the notion that only people travelling extensivelly or actively working can get infected by pointing out that the disease disproportionally affect people that are without jobs too, the poor communities.

But yes, as to your overall point, even when people are at home because of stay-at-home or lockdowns or whatever, there will still be person-to-person contacts (because people go out to visit families, do their groceries, walk their dogs, etc), and if people don't practise social distancing and proper hygiene, they are still at risk of getting infected. Stay-at-home only works when people actually stay at home.  

[SoulMonster]

23 minutes ago, Swampfox said:

Lockdowns just delay the inevitable.

The purpose of lockdowns isn't necessarily to prevent people from getting infected, but prevent people from getting infected at the same time. By reducing the infection rate through social distancing like lockdowns, you spread the epidemic out over a longer period of time, thus reducing the pressure on your health care system and preventing an excess of preventable deaths.

Additionally, by reducing the infection rate less people will have been infected -- and died -- by the time a vaccine arrives, meaning that we can save more people from dying.

[soon]

2 hours ago, Swampfox said:

In regards to number of deaths I meant overall not just this year.  But obviously they're still learning more and more every day about the disease and how to treat people. The flu has been around for a long time and we've learned how to fight it through medicine and yearly vaccines.  My point was that the stay at home orders didn't work and if we do get a vaccine through operation warp speed covid-19 should go away.  If it mutates before then the world is fucked.

Is your larger point that the experts are wrong and you’ve figured it out? Or is your larger point that the authorities are all lying to us for some nefarios purpose?

Given that  you have just compared 4-5 months of COVID-19 deaths to all deaths ever from flu, I can disabuse you of the notion that you’ve outsmarted the experts.

therefore I am left with this question for you: who is it you claim is lying to us about the virus and why do you think that they are lying to us?

[Swampfox]

1 hour ago, soon said:

Is your larger point that the experts are wrong and you’ve figured it out? Or is your larger point that the authorities are all lying to us for some nefarios purpose?

Given that  you have just compared 4-5 months of COVID-19 deaths to all deaths ever from flu, I can disabuse you of the notion that you’ve outsmarted the experts.

therefore I am left with this question for you: who is it you claim is lying to us about the virus and why do you think that they are lying to us?

1. I never said I figured it out.  I said the "experts" got it wrong.

2. I never said anyone is lying.  But I do question everything we're being told.  

[soon]

42 minutes ago, Swampfox said:

1. I never said I figured it out.  I said the "experts" got it wrong.

2. I never said anyone is lying.  But I do question everything we're being told.  

^^^This is text book example of the Motte and Bailey argumentative fallacy.

In Motte and Bailey one first makes indefensible claims. Then, when challenged on them they change their claims to something more defensible. The aim is to preserve the original argument without having to actually defend it.

So,

You have made the indefensible claim that stay at home orders don't work just above in the thread. And recently in a similar conversation about the pandemic in the US Politics thread you made the indefensible claim that Covid-19 'started in a lab.' So yes, you did suggest that we are being lied to because that is not the official explanation being presented by the authorities, scientists nor the mainstream media. (Link to that claim is below*)

But now that you are being challenged on your indefensible claims you switch arguments and say something more reasonable and defensible like 'Im just questioning things.' But, as is the case with the Motte and Bailey fallacy, you only do this to preserve your original arguments that you cant defend.

Classic Motte and Bailey, https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Motte_and_bailey

*

 

Edited May 25, 2020 by soon

[DieselDaisy]

13 hours ago, SoulMonster said:

Brazil now has the second highest number of known infected, after USA. Both USA and Brazil have leaders who have trivialized the disease, said it was a hoax, been against social distancing, promoted fake drugs. The conduct of a president matters. What a president say has consequences. What a president do is imitated by followers. A president is a role model. And Trump and Bolsonaro are terrible role models.

Yet China has a grand total of about six corona casualties if you believe the comical numbers Beijing produced, yet China has lied, obscured, censored, imprisoned, politicised, blamed the disease on black minorities and sold faulty equipment to other nations. Your point?

And Sweden have instigated less lockdown related policies than the USA. What is your obsession with the USA? Why are you not also criticising Prime Minister Löfven who has welded his government to ''herd mentality'' to such an extent that one can still visit pubs and restaurants in Sweden, whereas Trump did (belatedly) introduce lockdown measures? 

Edited May 25, 2020 by DieselDaisy

[dontdamnmeuyi2015]

Well, Saturday was a big pool and beach day.

No masks in sight. Interviewing people saying what a beautiful to be outside! I said you could put that on your tombstone.

I get that people want to get out and the virus thanks you for it.

These people that are out in pools and bars and beaches will possibly get the virus and then bring it back to their families. I'm so glad my family and I are being considerate of each other and staying inside and being careful to wear masks and social distancing when we are out.

I know it sucks to be inside so much, but since this virus will be around for a long time to come, we need to get used to a new way of living, if living is what you want to do!

For a generation who are always on their phones I don't get why staying inside is such a hard thing to do?

[SoulMonster]

49 minutes ago, DieselDaisy said:

Yet China has a grand total of about six corona casualties if you believe the comical numbers Beijing produced, yet China has lied, obscured, censored, imprisoned, politicised, blamed the disease on black minorities and sold faulty equipment to other nations. Your point?

My point was that the two countries who have the highest number of infected are led by shitty presidents. How did you not get that?

50 minutes ago, DieselDaisy said:

And Sweden have instigated less lockdown related policies than the USA. What is your obsession with the USA? Why are you not also criticising Prime Minister Löfven who has welded his government to ''herd mentality'' to such an extent that one can still visit pubs and restaurants in Sweden, whereas Trump did (belatedly) introduce lockdown measures? 

I have already answered this in a previous post.

[Swampfox]

2 hours ago, soon said:

^^^This is text book example of the Motte and Bailey argumentative fallacy.

In Motte and Bailey one first makes indefensible claims. Then, when challenged on them they change their claims to something more defensible. The aim is to preserve the original argument without having to actually defend it.

So,

You have made the indefensible claim that stay at home orders don't work just above in the thread. And recently in a similar conversation about the pandemic in the US Politics thread you made the indefensible claim that Covid-19 'started in a lab.' So yes, you did suggest that we are being lied to because that is not the official explanation being presented by the authorities, scientists nor the mainstream media. (Link to that claim is below*)

But now that you are being challenged on your indefensible claims you switch arguments and say something more reasonable and defensible like 'Im just questioning things.' But, as is the case with the Motte and Bailey fallacy, you only do this to preserve your original arguments that you cant defend.

Classic Motte and Bailey, https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Motte_and_bailey

*

 

Nobody suffers from what you described more than Soulmonster.  See how long before this one gets deleted.

[DieselDaisy]

6 hours ago, SoulMonster said:

My point was that the two countries who have the highest number of infected are led by shitty presidents. How did you not get that?

China is ran by an entire shitty government yet, if you believe their figures, they've done amazingly well. 

[Gibsonfender2323]

18 minutes ago, DieselDaisy said:

China is ran by an entire shitty government yet, if you believe their figures, they've done amazingly well. 

and I also am a Billionaire with wings!. Seriously the mental gymnastics people go through when they are cornered is always "BUT TRUMP." If a Democrat was President you wouldn't be seeing a "Cuomo Death Toll 100k hashtag from the twiternias its sicking. 

This is a virus that takes us all down.

 

 

Edited May 26, 2020 by Gibsonfender2323

[SoulMonster]

2 hours ago, DieselDaisy said:

China is ran by an entire shitty government yet, if you believe their figures, they've done amazingly well. 

Is it incomprehensible to you that a totalitarian regime known for their human rights transgressions could be able to enforce social restrictions to limit the spread of a new epidemic more efficiently than some democracies? 

[SoulMonster]

Norway has abandoned its 2-meter social distancing rule. That's great, now Norwegians can go back to its customary 5-meter distance to other people.