Covid-19 Thread

[downzy]

Just now, DieselDaisy said:

Is the medical capacity really so poor in those countries? All three are divided by class to a great extent, with a very wealthy component who will receive care akin to the countries cited. I also thought the US is meant to have one of the worst medical systems in the world, whereby you require insurance? 

I take it you've never been to India or Mexico or know much about Brazil...

 

Just now, Dazey said:

Also worthy of note that Mexico, Brazil and India were hit later and are still in the middle of their initial wave of cases. UK Germany etc were hit at roughly the same time as the US and all now have the virus under control whereas Trump and co clearly do not. 

You're talking sense Dazey.  Much like a Trump supporter, DD doesn't care much for those.    

[DieselDaisy]

2 minutes ago, downzy said:

I take it you've never been to India or Mexico or know much about Brazil...

 

What do you find so erroneous in my statement?

[downzy]

Another example of wasting time responding to @DieselDaisy

[DieselDaisy]

Jerry isn't overly keen on corona lockdown. 

[SoulMonster]

@downzy: https://www.ft.com/content/f8ecf7b5-f8d2-4726-ba3f-233b8497b91a

[Dazey]

5 hours ago, SoulMonster said:

@downzy: https://www.ft.com/content/f8ecf7b5-f8d2-4726-ba3f-233b8497b91a

How does that work when the people making it aren’t planning to release it any earlier?

[SoulMonster]

8 minutes ago, Dazey said:

How does that work when the people making it aren’t planning to release it any earlier?

Pharma companies will try to market it as soon as they get approval.

[Dazey]

19 minutes ago, SoulMonster said:

Pharma companies will try to market it as soon as they get approval.

But don’t they need to complete phase 3 trials first? 

[SoulMonster]

Just now, Dazey said:

But don’t they need to complete phase 3 trials first? 

Normally they would have to complete Ph3 to get approval, but now it is discussed that approval can be given based on partially completed Ph3. Anyway, as soon as they have market approval from the FDA, they can start selling the vaccine to US customers. 

It is not unprecedented that pharma companies can get a drug approved without Ph3 data, but usually such shortened regulatory pathways with less data on safety and efficacy, will only be accepted for some drugs, e.g drugs where such data has been collected in previous clinical trials (perhaps for another medical indication) or where the need for Ph3 trials is considered less important due to the nature of the drug.

It would, on the other hand, be entirely unprecedented to forego the completion of Ph3 for a novel vaccine where we only have Ph1 and Ph2 clinical data to support an approval, like the ones being developed for COVID-19. If the FDA does approve a COVID-19 vaccine without fully doing Ph3, it corrupts the entire regulatory process and could have terrible consequences (i.e. if it turns out it has significant adverse effects not observed in the smaller Ph2 trials).

[Dazey]

14 minutes ago, SoulMonster said:

Normally they would have to complete Ph3 to get approval, but now it is discussed that approval can be given based on partially completed Ph3. Anyway, as soon as they have market approval from the FDA, they can start selling the vaccine to US customers. 

It is not unprecedented that pharma companies can get a drug approved without Ph3 data, but usually such shortened regulatory pathways with less data on safety and efficacy, will only be accepted for some drugs, e.g drugs where such data has been collected in previous clinical trials (perhaps for another medical indication) or where the need for Ph3 trials is considered less important due to the nature of the drug.

It would, on the other hand, be entirely unprecedented to forego the completion of Ph3 for a novel vaccine where we only have Ph1 and Ph2 clinical data to support an approval, like the ones being developed for COVID-19. If the FDA does approve a COVID-19 vaccine without fully doing Ph3, it corrupts the entire regulatory process and could have terrible consequences (i.e. if it turns out it has significant adverse effects not observed in the smaller Ph2 trials).

I hope all Trump voter’s kids are born without limbs henceforth. 

Edited August 31, 2020 by Dazey

[SoulMonster]

On the other hand, it could also be they have sufficient data now from the ongoing Ph3 to safely approve the vaccine, and that it is efficacy data remaining. Maybe even some of the Ph3 requirements are a bit overblown and the whole regulatory process needs revision to allow for quicker development of new drugs. But what we can't have is politicians pressuring the regulatory bodies to approve drugs too soon.

[downzy]

11 hours ago, SoulMonster said:

@downzy: https://www.ft.com/content/f8ecf7b5-f8d2-4726-ba3f-233b8497b91a

Sorry, can’t access the article.

I can’t determine from the title if it’s good news or bad news. 

4 hours ago, SoulMonster said:

Normally they would have to complete Ph3 to get approval, but now it is discussed that approval can be given based on partially completed Ph3. Anyway, as soon as they have market approval from the FDA, they can start selling the vaccine to US customers. 

It is not unprecedented that pharma companies can get a drug approved without Ph3 data, but usually such shortened regulatory pathways with less data on safety and efficacy, will only be accepted for some drugs, e.g drugs where such data has been collected in previous clinical trials (perhaps for another medical indication) or where the need for Ph3 trials is considered less important due to the nature of the drug.

It would, on the other hand, be entirely unprecedented to forego the completion of Ph3 for a novel vaccine where we only have Ph1 and Ph2 clinical data to support an approval, like the ones being developed for COVID-19. If the FDA does approve a COVID-19 vaccine without fully doing Ph3, it corrupts the entire regulatory process and could have terrible consequences (i.e. if it turns out it has significant adverse effects not observed in the smaller Ph2 trials).

Ah, sorry, now I see your follow up response. 
 

So likely not good!

[downzy]

4 hours ago, SoulMonster said:

But what we can't have is politicians pressuring the regulatory bodies to approve drugs too soon.

Good thing the current occupant of the White House would never do that!

[SoulMonster]

1 minute ago, downzy said:

Good thing the current occupant of the White House would never do that!

Trump has probably sent some of his NYC associates, Johnny and Frankie, to the FDA headquarters as we type, to have a little discussion with the director there.

[dontdamnmeuyi2015]

My God! Over 6 million cases in the US and still Trump thinks all is well. 

Some kids in the US began school today. My child goes back next Tuesday. I'm still worried about all this. Not sure I did the right thing sending her to school. I know teachers and schools will try their best, but will it be good enough?

Doctors saying get your flu shot before Halloween. The only difference I can see between the flu and the virus, is a higher fever with the flu. Doctors are recommending to get a good thermomater and a blood pressure cuff and even a finger thing to check your oxygen levels. WFT?

Anyway, i still don't think testing is what it should be? Saw a college student saying how she had to fight to get a test since so many college students want one now. This is one big mess.

Now they are saying they might put out a vaccine before the third trials end? This is going to make people scared to get this vaccine.

So many different things are being said. We won't know what to do?

Wear a mask, social distance and wash your hands. Why is it still hard for people to do this? It's all we got right now.

[dontdamnmeuyi2015]

7 hours ago, Dazey said:

But don’t they need to complete phase 3 trials first? 

Today that's what CNN was talking about. They said they might get a vaccine ready before the 3rd trials are done. How can they do this?

The US currently has two vaccines in the 3rd trials. But one doctor said you can't just give this to healthy people if it's not done with the trials.

I swear I think this is a conspiracy to kill as many people as possible otherwise I think the US would be more cautious. Maybe the government wants to get rid of many people to save money. 

So sick of all this shit. How many horrible things have to happen before something good happens?

[Coma16]

I can't wait until the US election is behind us. I have a strong feeling that the covid media hysteria will magically dissipate shortly afterwards (covid is real, its the hype and fear mongering that is manufactured)

[Gibsonfender2323]

1 hour ago, dontdamnmeuyi2015 said:

My God! Over 6 million cases in the US and still Trump thinks all is well. 

 

Great do the deaths per million and  the fatality rate.

Edited August 31, 2020 by Gibsonfender2323

[DieselDaisy]

Nobody correlates corona stats in a way that is meaningful, that is as a percentage of the overall population of said country, so I had to do a quick tally myself, using deaths. The United States is superior than Belgium, UK, Spain, Italy and Brazil - only France and (significantly so) Germany are superior than the US. Sweden is about on par with the US. The worst country, by some distance, is Belgium.

The US has therefore not suffered from Corona worse than most other countries.

Spoiler

Peru: 0.087%

Belgium: 0.085

UK: 0.062

Spain: 0.061

Italy: 0.058

Brazil: 0.057

US: 0.056

Sweden: 0.056

France: 0.045

Canada: 0.024

Germany: 0.011

 

Edited August 31, 2020 by DieselDaisy
Added more countries

[Coma16]

42 minutes ago, DieselDaisy said:

Nobody correlates corona stats in a way that is meaningful, that is as a percentage of the overall population of said country, so I had to do a quick tally myself, using deaths. The United States is superior than Belgium, UK, Spain, Italy and Brazil - only France and (significantly so) Germany are superior than the US. Sweden is about on par with the US. The worst country, by some distance, is Belgium.

The US has therefore not suffered from Corona worse than most other countries.

  Hide contents

Peru: 0.087%

Belgium: 0.085

UK: 0.062

Spain: 0.061

Italy: 0.058

Brazil: 0.057

US: 0.056

Sweden: 0.056

France: 0.045

Canada: 0.024

Germany: 0.011

 

What's the use of the truth if you can't tell a lie ?

[SoulMonster]

8 hours ago, DieselDaisy said:

Nobody correlates corona stats in a way that is meaningful, that is as a percentage of the overall population of said country, so I had to do a quick tally myself, using deaths. The United States is superior than Belgium, UK, Spain, Italy and Brazil - only France and (significantly so) Germany are superior than the US. Sweden is about on par with the US. The worst country, by some distance, is Belgium.

The US has therefore not suffered from Corona worse than most other countries.

  Reveal hidden contents

Peru: 0.087%

Belgium: 0.085

UK: 0.062

Spain: 0.061

Italy: 0.058

Brazil: 0.057

US: 0.056

Sweden: 0.056

France: 0.045

Canada: 0.024

Germany: 0.011

 

Diesel compares USA to 9 other countries and concludes that it hasn't suffered worse than "most other countries" Oh, Diesel 

If you really want to compare USA to all other countries, and not just those that supports your conclusion, you could go to a place like worldometers.com and simply sort the list of countries by deaths per capita and you will see that USA is the 11th worse country in the world. The countries with even worse deaths per capita are San Marino, Peru, Belgium, Andorra, Spain, UK, Chile, Italy, Sweden, Brazil. All the rest of the countries in the world (the list operates with 215) have done better than USA. So you simply cannot conclude that "US has therefore not suffered from Corona worse than most other countries".

[downzy]

9 minutes ago, SoulMonster said:

Diesel compares USA to 9 other countries and concludes that it hasn't suffered worse than "most other countries" Oh, Diesel 

If you really want to compare USA to all other countries, and not just those that supports your conclusion, you could go to a place like worldometers.com and simply sort the list of countries by deaths per capita and you will see that USA is the 11th worse country in the world. The countries with even worse deaths per capita are San Marino, Peru, Belgium, Andorra, Spain, UK, Chile, Italy, Sweden, Brazil. All the rest of the countries in the world (the list operates with 215) have done better than USA. So you simply cannot conclude that "US has therefore not suffered from Corona worse than most other countries".

The other problem with Diesel's "analysis" is that it fails to look at three things:

1) The US is still average 700-1000 deaths per day on a weekly basis.  Compared to other developed nations that currently have a higher death rate per capita, the US is still seeing massive daily deaths that will likely cause it to surpass all other developed countries in the next 30 to 45 days (save for Belgium).  

2) The US isn't even close to ending its first way.  While many European nations are suffering deaths in the single digits per day, the US not only failed to suppress the spread of the virus but it saw a rebound of cases and deaths that other developed nations did not experience.  European nations got hit early and hard largely due to misfortune.  But almost every European country has been able to greatly curb both the transmission and fatalities since the middle to end of May.  It was around the middle of June when things started to pick back up in the US, largely in states that followed Trump's advice to open up early.  The early onslaught was likely unavoidable for most countries since few were actually prepared to the same level as Taiwan and South Korea.  But there really isn't any excuse as to why the US saw daily case loads shoot up to over 70k per day in July after it had reduced daily cases to the low 20s in May and early June.  

3) The final issue with provided a straight up comparison between the US and many European counterparts is that the current death totals are the result of arbitrary policy decisions.  Belgium has one of the highest deaths per capita because it chose to count almost every death suspected of Covid-19 to its covid-19 fatality list.  It's been reported that there's likely a vast undercount of total covid-19 related deaths in the US, particularly those who died in February and March when only confirmed cases were added to the official totals.  In all likelihood most nations, save for Belgium, have undercounted the number of people who had died from the virus, with the US leading the way.  

[DieselDaisy]

1 hour ago, SoulMonster said:

USA is the 11th worse country in the world.

Well?

[SoulMonster]

6 minutes ago, DieselDaisy said:

Well?

Well, that is certainly faaaar away from your conclusion: "The US has therefore not suffered from Corona worse than most other countries". In fact, compared to "most other countries" it has performed really poorly.

[DieselDaisy]

2 minutes ago, SoulMonster said:

Well, that is certainly faaaar away from your conclusion: "The US has therefore not suffered from Corona worse than most other countries". In fact, compared to "most other countries" it has performed really poorly.

Soulean über-literal Teutonic pedantry impending,