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COVID-19 Outbreak

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The best way to get through the actual virus is a strong immune system. If there's an outbreak in your area and you have a cold - call in sick, stay at home, cure it. The shit will most likely hit the fan very soon, so make sure to stock up on medicine, hygiene products, food and water NOW. Once you're under actual quarantine at home...well, do the math.

As for the the source, officially it's a bat but now more official sources and institutions take in consideration the virus might have originated from the laboratory right next to that market in Wuhan where bats are sold as food. Look up what kind of laboratory that is and what they work on in there. Scientists who did reasearch on the virus after its outbreak said it has structures of both SARS and HIV and chances are it's an experimental virus or maybe even a biological weapon that - given the reaction of the chinese government - is anyhing but harmless and totally out of control.

My biggest concern isn't even be the virus, financial crash, breakdown of supply chains, chaos, riots, looting and quarantines. It's the "vaccine" most likely be offered at the height of chaos.

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And old school anti-Asian racism surfaces as a consequence, 

(Besides Chinese) Japanese and Koreans have been targeted by westerners, yet Japanese and Koreans have themselves targeted the Chinese in their own polities haha. Just goes to show that all it takes is a bit of flu and our primordial default nature, xenophobia, is unleashed.

In the UK, Chinese takeaways have seen their business plummet by all accounts, Brits thinking their Chicken Chop Suey (with obligatory side portion of chips) will infect them with the Corona bug.

 

Edited by DieselDaisy
  • Haha 1

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And this is why this thing is going to spread like wildfire in America - 

 

Edited by TheSeeker

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9 hours ago, action said:

my advice is to drink a lot of alcohol. Alcohol works desinfectant, they say. gotta be prepared for the worst

It is good for washing your hands, I will give you that. But generally speaking, drinking some alcohol will likely not destroy viruses in your throat, and drinking a lot of alcohol will likely just weaken your immune system.

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What you need to understand about viruses is that they tend to mutate rapidly. They kind of have to to be able to get around the hosts' immune systems. By changing structure frequently they evade defense systems evolved to fight them. That's why we have to develop new flu vaccines every year - because the viruses have changed so much the old vaccines don't recognise them anymore. Each year pharma companies struggle to develop a new vaccines to fight this year's seasonal flu strain. A virus type that don't mutate frequently will tend to be killed off by the host immune system. This means that the most successful viruses, and hence those that are most frequent, are those that change all the time. 

Very rarely mutations will take place that allows a virus to infect new hosts. Normally, this would be an extremely rare event, but since viruses mutate so rapidly, it happens more frequently than what we would otherwise expect. Such viruses that have mutated to have a broader host-range are called zoonotic viruses. It might sound exotic, but as I said, it happens more frequently than what you would think. A common example is the HIV virus that originated in monkeys, mutated to be able to infect humans, and then mutated again to make it exclusively a human virus. AIDS has now killed about 32 million world-wide. Another example is the swine flu, which was a recombined virus between swine flu virus and human flu virus. The swine flu has now killed between 200-500,000 humans. Another example is rabies, which can infect from various mammals (bats or Cujo) to humans. 

Another aspect that makes zoonotic viruses more common is humans' encroachment on new environments where we come in more and more contact with different animals we previously wasn't really that exposed to. And our increased population density which makes infection much more efficient. And the fact that we keep various live stocks in huge populations.

Anyway, my point is that virus-borne animal diseases are quite frequent. A new such disease pops up almost every year.

7 hours ago, adamsapple said:

As for the the source, officially it's a bat but now more official sources and institutions take in consideration the virus might have originated from the laboratory right next to that market in Wuhan where bats are sold as food. Look up what kind of laboratory that is and what they work on in there. Scientists who did reasearch on the virus after its outbreak said it has structures of both SARS and HIV and chances are it's an experimental virus or maybe even a biological weapon that - given the reaction of the chinese government - is anyhing but harmless and totally out of control.

This is a conspiracy theory which has been debunked by numerous scientists: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/scientists-strongly-condemn-rumors-and-conspiracy-theories-about-origin-coronavirus

There is absolutely no reason to believe COVID-19 isn't a naturally occurring zoonotic virus. 

Not surprisingly, a dumb American politician (Tom Cotton) has been spreading the theory that the virus originated at a Chinese virus research center to a dumb American TV channel (FOX News) to mislead the dumb American people.

Believing the virus has been engineered by humans only makes sense if you know little of zoonotic viruses, or have a deep distrust for science and scientists and proper news media, or have seen too many zombie movies, or just struggle with knowledge, facts and thinking.

7 hours ago, adamsapple said:

My biggest concern isn't even be the virus, financial crash, breakdown of supply chains, chaos, riots, looting and quarantines. It's the "vaccine" most likely be offered at the height of chaos.

Ah, you are an anti-vaxxer, too? I will just respond with this:

c6fb5feb7f1ee71b7e725277d30999161.jpg?width=960

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22 minutes ago, SoulMonster said:

This is a conspiracy theory which has been debunked by numerous scientists: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/scientists-strongly-condemn-rumors-and-conspiracy-theories-about-origin-coronavirus

There is absolutely no reason to believe COVID-19 isn't a naturally occurring zoonotic virus. 

Not surprisingly, a dumb American politician (Tom Cotton) has been spreading the theory that the virus originated at a Chinese virus research center to a dumb American TV channel (FOX News) to mislead the dumb American people.

Believing the virus has been engineered by humans only makes sense if you know little of zoonotic viruses, or have a deep distrust for science and scientists and proper news media, or have seen too many zombie movies, or just struggle with knowledge, facts and thinking.

 

If it is a naturally occuring zoonotic virus, then it's one hell of a coincidence it breaks out right there at this very time at Wuhan market right next to a level 4 lab of all places. I don't believe a single word from a communist regime that has so much space...mountains, deserts - yet maintains its only (official) level 4 lab in the middle of one of the most densely populated areas on earth - plenty of fuel for conspiracy theorists, but common sense and logic alone is enough to be concerned.

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9 hours ago, adamsapple said:

The best way to get through the actual virus is a strong immune system. If there's an outbreak in your area and you have a cold - call in sick, stay at home, cure it. The shit will most likely hit the fan very soon, so make sure to stock up on medicine, hygiene products, food and water NOW. Once you're under actual quarantine at home...well, do the math.

As for the the source, officially it's a bat but now more official sources and institutions take in consideration the virus might have originated from the laboratory right next to that market in Wuhan where bats are sold as food. Look up what kind of laboratory that is and what they work on in there. Scientists who did reasearch on the virus after its outbreak said it has structures of both SARS and HIV and chances are it's an experimental virus or maybe even a biological weapon that - given the reaction of the chinese government - is anyhing but harmless and totally out of control.

My biggest concern isn't even be the virus, financial crash, breakdown of supply chains, chaos, riots, looting and quarantines. It's the "vaccine" most likely be offered at the height of chaos.

a lousy virus they made then, if it even doesn't kill more people than regular flu.

as for vaccins? I look at them like "perks" in a video game, like upgrades to your character. "Now, you're immune to flu" or something. So I've had every vaccin you can think of, I even asked my doctor which diseases I could vaccine for otherwise. "hepatitis", he said. So I've got a vaccin for that too. I feel like some kind of superman now. I can even have sex with pamela anderson without a worry on my mind

Edited by action

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2 minutes ago, adamsapple said:

If it is a naturally occuring zoonotic virus, then it's one hell of a coincidence it breaks out right there at this very time at Wuhan market right next to a level 4 lab of all places. I don't believe a single word from a communist regime that has so much space...mountains, deserts - yet maintains its only (official) level 4 lab in the middle of one of the most densely populated areas on earth - plenty of fuel for conspiracy theorists, but common sense and logic alone is enough to be concerned.

Psst! You’re arguing with a PhD specialising in pretty much this field of research. ;) 

Edited by Dazey

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3 minutes ago, adamsapple said:

If it is a naturally occuring zoonotic virus, then it's one hell of a coincidence it breaks out right there at this very time at Wuhan market right next to a level 4 lab of all places. I don't believe a single word from a communist regime that has so much space...mountains, deserts - yet maintains its only (official) level 4 lab in the middle of one of the most densely populated areas on earth - plenty of fuel for conspiracy theorists, but common sense and logic alone is enough to be concerned.

Coincidences surround us. That being said, it is, what, 20 miles from the market where it is thought the disease started to spread to the virology lab? I would think it is not rare at all that at any point within a huge city you will be within 20 miles from a virology lab. If I dropped you anywhere in my own hometown, you would definitely be within 20 miles of a class BSL 3 virology lab. Granted, we are here talking about a BSL 4 lab, which are quite rare in the world, but again, coincidences happen and are the source for conspiracy theories.

You don't need to trust the Chinese government, you can trust non-Chinese scientists who have analysed the virus genome and concluded. Like Dr. Trevor Bedford, who is leading a group of scientists studying the Covid-19 virus: "There is no evidence whatsoever of genetic engineering that we can find." Or just read this: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/01/29/experts-debunk-fringe-theory-linking-chinas-coronavirus-weapons-research/

WHO has described all these Covid-19 rumours and conspiracy theories flourishing on social media and spreading rapidly across the world as an "infodemic." You are infected, @adamsapple, and you are trying to infect others ;).

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57 minutes ago, SoulMonster said:

WHO has described all these Covid-19 rumours and conspiracy theories flourishing on social media and spreading rapidly across the world as an "infodemic." You are infected, @adamsapple, and you are trying to infect others ;).

Speaks volumes about the WHO to conquer fear and conspiracy theories with dialectics. How can plain information be pandemic and negative at all? Divide et impera. But let's say the source is not manmade at all and it's just a nasty little bat - then how come the WHO doesn't communicate that all level 4 labs in the world are currently working on a cure to prevent further damage to people and the economy, if only to offer a chill pill to the people? How come they don't communicate much at all and even refrain from calling it a pandemic, when by their very own definition it clearly is?

As for the lab and that market, it's not miles apart, it's literally around the block, at least according to Google maps.

Edited by adamsapple

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1 minute ago, adamsapple said:

Speaks volumes about the WHO to conquer fear and conspiracy theories with dialectics. How can information be pandemic and negatively conoted at all? 

They are talking about false information, rumours and conspiracy theories. Not something that is beneficial to us. Hence the comparison to epidemics.

 

1 minute ago, adamsapple said:

But let's say the source is not manmade at all and it's just a nasty little bat - then how come the WHO doesn't communicate that all level 4 labs in the world are currently working on a cure to prevent further damage to people and the economy, if only to offer a chill pill to the people? How come they don't communicate much at all and even refrain from calling it a pandemic, when by their very own definition it clearly is?

I can't speak for WHO and what they communicate, but I believe it is well known that various research institutes and pharma companies around the world are working on a vaccine to Covid-19. 

As for whether it is a pandemic: I think there is a stringent requirements for that, and that we are getting close to reaching it. As far as I understand, the reason it hasn't been referred to as a 'pandemic' previously is that it was mainly contained within China. Media is speculating that WHO will go out very soon as refer to it as a pandemic, likely because of increased occurrences in Spain, Italy, South Korea and Iran.

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On 23/02/2020 at 6:58 PM, adamsapple said:

Contamination time: 15 seconds

From first symptoms to death: 14 days

Mortality rate: 2% - 15% according to WHO

Take its exponential growth in consideration and you got no less than the apocalypse.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

 

Doesn't exponential mean like...2 turns into 4, 4 into 8, 8 into 16 etc?

Edited by Len Cnut

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18 minutes ago, Len Cnut said:

Doesn't exponential mean like...2 turns into 4, 4 into 8, 8 into 16 etc?

Yes it does, and the virus doesn't behave like that. In fact, and going by the graphs on the very webpage he listed, the number of cases is now slowing down while the number of fatalities represent a linear line.

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5 minutes ago, SoulMonster said:

Yes it does, and the virus doesn't behave like that. In fact, and going by the graphs on the very webpage he listed, the number of cases is now slowing down while the number of fatalities represent a linear line.

Yeah, thats what I mean, that it doesn't seem to be doing that.

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3 minutes ago, Len Cnut said:

Yeah, thats what I mean, that it doesn't seem to be doing that.

Exponential growth is common in early stages of epidemics, but usually quickly taper off. Like this virus seems to have done. Of course, whenever it comes to new areas the local growth can be exponential again for a short time.

Bacteria can also grow exponentially, at least for a short time until some nutrient becomes limiting (I suppose that can be said of everything). And since bacteria grow by division (1 become 2, 2 becomes 4, and so on), a bacterium like E. coli with an ideal division time of only 22 minutes, can theoretically be the origin of a bacterial colony weighing more than the Earth in less than 48 hours (!). We are now working with a bacterium that has the shortest observed growth time, it can double it's cell mass and divide into two new copies of itself in less than 7 minutes. After 1 hour it would have given rise to 255 new daughter cells. In 2 hours there would be 131,072 of them. After 3 hours, it would be more than 67 million, and after 4 hours more than 274 billion. And so on. Just remarkably efficient at taking up nutrients and converting to biomass. Fortunately, nutrients will always be limiting, otherwise we'd be fucked.

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I'll be ridiculed again as per usual, but this epidemy scares me shitless. Even my own doctor can't tell me how people die of this, and other recover. I'm still not sure "what" causes these deaths either: is it pneumonia caused by this virus, it is sepsis, or both, or something else? I find it very weird that after more than 2 months, there doesn't seem to be clear information about these aspects. Are these scientists sitting on their lazy butts or what? by now, basic stuff like that should be communicated wide and about, you'd think.

Edited by action

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6 minutes ago, SoulMonster said:

Exponential growth is common in early stages of epidemics, but usually quickly taper off. Like this virus seems to have done. Of course, whenever it comes to new areas the local growth can be exponential again for a short time.

Bacteria can also grow exponentially, at least for a short time until some nutrient becomes limiting (I suppose that can be said of everything). And since bacteria grow by division (1 become 2, 2 becomes 4, and so on), a bacterium like E. coli with an ideal division time of only 22 minutes, can theoretically be the origin of a bacterial colony weighing more than the Earth in less than 48 hours (!). We are now working with a bacterium that has the shortest observed growth time, it can double it's cell mass and divide into two new copies of itself in less than 7 minutes. After 1 hour it would have given rise to 255 new daughter cells. In 2 hours there would be 131,072 of them. After 3 hours, it would be more than 67 million, and after 4 hours more than 274 billion. And so on. Just remarkably efficient at taking up nutrients and converting to biomass. Fortunately, nutrients will always be limiting, otherwise we'd be fucked.

I hope you're growing good bacteria then :nervous:

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3 minutes ago, action said:

I'll be ridiculed again as per usual, but this epidemy scares me shitless. Even my own doctor can't tell me how people die of this, and other recover. I'm still not sure "what" causes these deaths either: is it pneumonia caused by this virus, it is sepsis, or both, or something else? I find it very weird that after more than 2 months, there doesn't seem to be clear information about these aspects. Are these scientists sitting on their lazy butts or what? by now, basic stuff like that should be communicated wide and about, you'd think.

I wouldn't trust your general practitioner to be well-informed on the specifics of a new virus epidemics. As for what the symptoms are and what causes the deaths, that is pretty well-known and you can read about it here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_coronavirus_outbreak#Epidemiology

Basically, like with influenza, the virus causes respiratory problems that can lead to various issues, especially in people that are already weakened because they have other diseases or are old. The most likely causes of death will be pneumonia and multi-organ failure.

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8 minutes ago, Lio said:

I hope you're growing good bacteria then :nervous:

Yes, we are - they are both polite and considerate. But coincidentally, earlier today I have been working on a risk assessments of developing a new bacterium that produces a potent toxin. Sounds nefarious but this toxin will be fused to an antibody that will bind exclusively to tumors. So basically, we are creating a new bacterium that can be used in directed cancer treatment to avoid more systemic medicines like chemotherapy where the side effects can be pretty brutal.

What are the chances of we fucking up and this becoming a terrible new pathogenic bacterium spreading a devastating new disease you ask? Well, we fuck up regularly, it comes with the territory, so that chance is significant, but the bacterial strains we use have been engineered to not be able to live outside our labs, and especially not inside the intestinal tracts of humans, and they have no efficient means to spread from human to human. All this has been verified through decades of work and industrial use all over the world. But back in the 70s and 80s when these strains were first developed, this was discussed extensively and scientists met at a few conferences to discuss whether it would be safe. Perhaps even the media wrote about it. In the end it was concluded they were indeed safe to develop and history has proven those scientists correct. 

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20 minutes ago, SoulMonster said:

I wouldn't trust your general practitioner to be well-informed on the specifics of a new virus epidemics. As for what the symptoms are and what causes the deaths, that is pretty well-known and you can read about it here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_coronavirus_outbreak#Epidemiology

Basically, like with influenza, the virus causes respiratory problems that can lead to various issues, especially in people that are already weakened because they have other diseases or are old. The most likely causes of death will be pneumonia and multi-organ failure.

it's the latter I'm most scared of. multi-organ failure, or sepsis. 

does that happen with regular flu too?

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2 minutes ago, action said:

it's the latter I'm most scared of. multi-organ failure, or sepsis. 

does that happen with regular flu too?

Yes.

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12 hours ago, adamsapple said:

 

Who is she and what are her qualifications? The only thing I can find is that she’s an “Award Winning Jounalist” and the source is her own Linked In page.

Edit. Oh. Steve Bannon. I guess she’s totally credible then. :lol: 

 

Edited by Dazey

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I found this mortality stats by age, so cannot really tell if it's accurate:

80+ - 14,8%
70-79 - 8,0%
60-69 - 3,6%
50-59 - 1,3%
40-49 - 0,4%
30-39  - 0,2%
20-29  - 0,2%
10-19 - 0,2%
0-9 - no casulties

 

 

Also 1st case confirmed here in Croatia - man who was in Milan recently...

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16 minutes ago, -Jaro- said:

I found this mortality stats by age, so cannot really tell if it's accurate:

80+ - 14,8%
70-79 - 8,0%
60-69 - 3,6%
50-59 - 1,3%
40-49 - 0,4%
30-39  - 0,2%
20-29  - 0,2%
10-19 - 0,2%
0-9 - no casulties

Looks reasonable but I’d expect more in the 0-9 age group. 

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