Covid-19 Thread

[SoulMonster]

The thing with Italy is that they got so many who needed intensive care at the same time,because they weren't prepared when it hit them and the disease was allowed to spread uncontested for a couple of weeks. The rest of Europe had more time to prepare and started testing (and quarantining) earlier, likely preventing this steep spike in hospitalizations. But that doesn't mean we won't see the same number of fatalities, just that they will be more spread out over the year. We still don't have any medicines that work. People who get sick, and they will, still suffer the same fatality rate. 

With an expected fatality rate of 0.4-1.0 % we would expect about 10 times as many fatalities from covid-19 than from seasonal flu. I believe flu is expected to kill about 2-300 people in Italy in the same period of time that covid-19 has been active there, and covid-19 has now killed more than 3,000 there. So it doesn't seem to be far off. 

This would indicate that we could expect 9,000 deaths in Norway from covid-19, compared to about 900 from the flu.

[spunko12345]

1 hour ago, downzy said:

Italy's death toll has now surpassed China's from COVID-19.  

The scary part is that Italy is only reporting half of confirmed cases (40k) to that of China (80k).  

 

2 hours ago, downzy said:

1,763 new cases announced in New York over the last 24 hours.

Fuck that wouldnt be good. Where is this data coming from?

[downzy]

1 hour ago, alfierose said:

Reading stuff like this freaks me out when I know in the UK we're not far behind and our PM is not making isolation mandatory. So many people here still carrying on as if nothing's happening. Especially the retired folk.

Chinese officials in Lombardy, Italy are saying that the lockdown efforts are not enough.  They say not enough people are following the orders, that public transportation is still in operation in most of the region, that people are going out for dinners.

So it may be awhile before we see anything close to a peak in Italy.  

Unfortunately that does not bode well of the UK and the US, where it appears to attitude among many is to dismiss the outbreak as another flu.

[downzy]

56 minutes ago, SoulMonster said:

The thing with Italy is that they got so many who needed intensive care at the same time,because they weren't prepared when it hit them and the disease was allowed to spread uncontested for a couple of weeks. The rest of Europe had more time to prepare and started testing (and quarantining) earlier, likely preventing this steep spike in hospitalizations. But that doesn't mean we won't see the same number of fatalities, just that they will be more spread out over the year. We still don't have any medicines that work. People who get sick, and they will, still suffer the same fatality rate. 

With an expected fatality rate of 0.4-1.0 % we would expect about 10 times as many fatalities from covid-19 than from seasonal flu. I believe flu is expected to kill about 2-300 people in Italy in the same period of time that covid-19 has been active there, and covid-19 has now killed more than 3,000 there. So it doesn't seem to be far off. 

This would indicate that we could expect 9,000 deaths in Norway from covid-19, compared to about 900 from the flu.

But isn't that estimate based on the fact that current systems can cope with season flu hospitalizations?  

Even if the fatality rate comes in at 0.4 - 1.0 percent, the dramatic surge of cases due to COVID-19 being much more contagious could produce more deaths with medical services being over run.

Hopefully the efforts by European countries are going to slow the spread and help hospitals cope with the increase in patients, but as I noted in my post above, it doesn't sound as though enough is being done to truly limit the spread.  

The UK is way behind and the US still hasn't gotten its act together.  

[SoulMonster]

22 minutes ago, downzy said:

But isn't that estimate based on the fact that current systems can cope with season flu hospitalizations?  

Even if the fatality rate comes in at 0.4 - 1.0 percent, the dramatic surge of cases due to COVID-19 being much more contagious could produce more deaths with medical services being over run.

Hopefully the efforts by European countries are going to slow the spread and help hospitals cope with the increase in patients, but as I noted in my post above, it doesn't sound as though enough is being done to truly limit the spread.  

The UK is way behind and the US still hasn't gotten its act together.  

That's a good question and I don't know to what extent an overburdened health care system will increase the fatality rate. It will cause lots of problems (inability to deal with other issues, huge expenses to overtime, extra equipment, and so on, postponed surgeries, etc), and, sure, in cases where they simply don't have enough ventilators it might increase the fatality risk,but that's a big question to me. Based on domestic discussions, it doesn't seem like we fear this, even in worst case scenarios. With Italy, I think perhaps they weren't able to scale up much. 

[SoulMonster]

This article talks about the reasons so many die in Italy, and although the overburdened system is mentioned a bit down on the page, the main assumed explanations are high age of population, air pollution, many smokers, and that the fatality rate isn't as high as it seems because of little testing and differences in methodologies of assuming cause of death to covid-19. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/have-many-coronavirus-patients-died-italy/amp/

Edited March 19, 2020 by SoulMonster

[SoulMonster]

And this one: https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/03/16/opinions/south-korea-italy-coronavirus-survivability-sepkowitz/index.html

[Dazey]

12 minutes ago, SoulMonster said:

This article talks about the reasons so many die in Italy, and although the overburdened system is mentioned a bit down on the page, the main assumed explanations are high age of population, air pollution, many smokers, and that the fatality rate isn't as high as it seems because of little testing and differences in methodologies of assuming cause of death to covid-19. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/have-many-coronavirus-patients-died-italy/amp/

I would imagine transmission rates are higher given that Italians tend to have greater occupancy rates per household. Don't they often live at home with multiple generations of family or am I just getting my insights from old movies?

[dontdamnmeuyi2015]

Again President Trump got the info wrong. He made a speech today saying the doctors found a treatment for the virus. There is not a real treatment as yet. They are still testing people. One doctor did say there are some treatments that were used to other diseases that might help out.

It would take a year or more to approve a treatment or a cure. Meanwhile, we all wait and pray and hope we will be okay.

Stay safe people.

[dontdamnmeuyi2015]

1 hour ago, Dazey said:

I would imagine transmission rates are higher given that Italians tend to have greater occupancy rates per household. Don't they often live at home with multiple generations of family or am I just getting my insights from old movies?

I know my mom's grandparents had their kids living with them until they were married and they had 8 kids. Same for my mom's dad's parents. he lived at home until he got older and he had 8 brothers and sisters. He told my mom that at times they all shared one bedroom.

My mom and her brother lived at home until they got married, but they had their own rooms and it was a huge house.

A lot of different families live together. On my parent's block there are many Mexican families that have multiple members living with them. with today's rents, it's easier that way.

It's just so sad to hear how many people are sick and dying. London is getting very bad too.

Everyday the gov of NY talks about how bad things are there. I know Trump sent a hospital ship to help out.

It's still so unreal because even though they tell you news every day, it still seems surreal.

Be safe people.

[spunko12345]

2 hours ago, Dazey said:

I would imagine transmission rates are higher given that Italians tend to have greater occupancy rates per household. Don't they often live at home with multiple generations of family or am I just getting my insights from old movies?

Total nonsense. Your getting your insight from Rick Stein programmes.

[Dazey]

What a fucking bellend!  

[rocknroll41]

7 minutes ago, Dazey said:

What a fucking bellend!  

New GnR album: Chinese Virus

[downzy]

19 minutes ago, Dazey said:

What a fucking bellend!  

I wouldn't worry about it.  Considering the devastation that's heading America's way due to Trump's negligence and incompetence, there's no way this outbreak doesn't get called the Trump Flu.

Hell, the Spanish Flu started in Kansas, so there's still time to rebrand.  

[downzy]

6 hours ago, SoulMonster said:

That's a good question and I don't know to what extent an overburdened health care system will increase the fatality rate. It will cause lots of problems (inability to deal with other issues, huge expenses to overtime, extra equipment, and so on, postponed surgeries, etc), and, sure, in cases where they simply don't have enough ventilators it might increase the fatality risk,but that's a big question to me. Based on domestic discussions, it doesn't seem like we fear this, even in worst case scenarios. With Italy, I think perhaps they weren't able to scale up much. 

I guess that's my question or, maybe, my point.  

The fatality rate can exist in the abstract and the real.  In the abstract, if 1 million people became infected and medical treatment was not provided, you'd see a fatality rate different than if you provided sound medical care to those who showed distress.  

So I think it maybe difficult to extrapolate numbers for different countries.  I would assume Norway has a very well funded healthcare system that can handle a surge of new cases better than, say, Italy or the US.  In that case the fatality rate will be significantly lower in addition to whatever actions or strategies are taken to contain or mitigate the virus.  I believe Italy and South Korea confirmed its first case in and around the same time.  Undoubtedly South Korea's efforts to limit the spread through containment played a primary role for the various outcomes.  But I believe South Korea had significantly better prepared health facilities to handle the surge.  Hence those who were infected in South Korea that needed care got it whereas many in Italy did not and have not.

[klakly]

17 minutes ago, downzy said:

Immagino sia questa la mia domanda o, forse, il mio punto.  

Il tasso di mortalità può esistere in astratto e reale. In astratto, se 1 milione di persone si infettasse e non venisse fornito un trattamento medico, vedresti un tasso di mortalità rispetto a se fornissi una sana assistenza medica a coloro che mostravano disagio.  

Quindi penso che sia difficile estrapolare numeri per diversi paesi. Suppongo che la Norvegia abbia un sistema sanitario molto ben finanziato in grado di gestire un aumento di nuovi casi meglio, per esempio, dell'Italia o degli Stati Uniti. In tal caso, il tasso di mortalità sarà significativamente inferiore oltre a qualsiasi azione o strategia intrapresa per contenere o mitigare il virus. Credo che l'Italia e la Corea del Sud abbiano confermato il suo primo caso nello stesso periodo. Indubbiamente gli sforzi della Corea del Sud per limitare la diffusione attraverso il contenimento hanno giocato un ruolo primario per i vari risultati. Ma credo che la Corea del Sud avesse preparato strutture sanitarie significativamente migliori per gestire l'aumento. Quindi quelli che erano stati infettati in Corea del Sud e che avevano bisogno di cure lo ottennero, mentre molti in Italia lo fecero e no.

In Italy, the problem, in addition to the older population, has been about the management of the Lombardy region where it was the first outbreak and which is still the most affected. They did not really swab the area as in South Korea, but only those who had symptoms, leaving the asymptomatic people free. Many citizens of Lombardy, despite the prohibitions and recommendations of the government, have gone to almost all the other Italian regions (many also here, on the coast of Tuscany, where I live). They caused us many problems. At the end of all this, however, I have a lot of confidence in our national health service, which is making immense efforts.

[downzy]

Further evidence why this is going to hit the US significantly harder than other countries:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/coronavirus-deniers-outbreak-hoax/2020/03/19/46bc5e46-6872-11ea-b313-df458622c2cc_story.html

[Dazey]

20 minutes ago, downzy said:

Further evidence why this is going to hit the US significantly harder than other countries:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/coronavirus-deniers-outbreak-hoax/2020/03/19/46bc5e46-6872-11ea-b313-df458622c2cc_story.html

Gavin Newsom just announced he expects over 20 million cases in CA. 

[downzy]

7 minutes ago, Dazey said:

Gavin Newsom just announced he expects over 20 million cases in CA. 

So even if we’re conservative in our guess with respect to fatality rates, there’s a potential of 100k - 400k deaths in California alone. 

[Ace Spade]

Do you think our supply chains will hold up Downzy?

What if the truckers start getting infected, and then can't/won't deliver food and other supplies?

That would be even deadlier than the Virus itself.

Edited March 20, 2020 by Ace Spade

[Ratam]

I'm read an article that says that Covid rate of affected are majority of man ,and womans are the least affected.

[cineater]

Wow Californians ordered to shelter in place.

[downzy]

2 hours ago, Ace Spade said:

Do you think our supply chains will hold up Downzy?

What if the truckers start getting infected, and then can't/won't deliver food and other supplies?

That would be even deadlier than the Virus itself.

That is a concern for the medium to long term. 

My biggest concern is food supplies coming into the summer. Distributors and wholesalers are flushed with most products for the next couple of months, but after that things might get dicey if everything is still on lockdown. 

A lot of locally grown fruit and vegetables in North America are picked by migrant workers. If they are not allowed in I’m not sure how the fields get picked and harvested. Maybe the government should be directing funds to subsidize wages for field workers since there are going to be a lot of people without a job in the next six months and without people to pick crops there is going to be a shortage come fall/winter.

It might sound paranoid but I’ve been telling everyone to buy seeds and fertilizer if they have space to grow their own vegetables. Also buy freezer bags and take advantage of pick your own fields this spring by freezing what you pick. Stock up because a lot of these staples might be in short supply at grocery stores come fall. 

[downzy]

I feel we should start a movement to call out the morons who aren't taking this seriously.  People like Evangeline Lilly, who is refusing to alter her daily habits out of fears of government overreach:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/entertainment/celebrities/2020/03/19/evangeline-lilly-refuses-self-quarantine-amid-coronavirus-pandemic/2879734001/

 

[downzy]

Another nation to keep an eye on is Mexico.

By some measures it's already a failed state. 

But things could get a whole lot worse considering they're currently making Italy look good in preparing for what's coming.  

The government expects only 250k people to get infected.  Health professionals estimate the total number of infected could reach 84.5 million.  That's a discrepancy of 84.25 million that the Mexican government is not considering.

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/03/mexico-is-frighteningly-unprepared-for-the-coronavirus.html?via=taps_top