Covid-19 Thread

[dontdamnmeuyi2015]

51 minutes ago, marlingrl03 said:

It is true..the wave has already started in many states including AK. Our numbers have risen....as well as our hospitalizations. This trend actually began in June. 

This really sucks but not surprised. This virus keeps mutating and seems to be one step ahead of us. China has been shut down for over a month again. I just read in the paper today that France wants to make a mask mandate again since a lot of tourists are coming on vacation now. Not to mention all the concerts and festivals that go on in the summer months.

Just hve to be cautious I guess. it's all we can do.

[action]

numbers are rising again

two weeks to flatten the curve

we were unresponsable, and we need to be punished.

if we all get jabbed one last time (promise!), then we will be rewarded with human rights

[SoulMonster]

From December 2020 to December 2021, COVID-19 vaccines are estimated to have saved about 20 million lives worldwide:

Based on official reported COVID-19 deaths, we estimated that vaccinations prevented 14·4 million (95% credible interval [Crl] 13·7–15·9) deaths from COVID-19 in 185 countries and territories between Dec 8, 2020, and Dec 8, 2021. This estimate rose to 19·8 million (95% Crl 19·1–20·4) deaths from COVID-19 averted when we used excess deaths as an estimate of the true extent of the pandemic, representing a global reduction of 63% in total deaths (19·8 million of 31·4 million) during the first year of COVID-19 vaccination. In COVAX Advance Market Commitment countries, we estimated that 41% of excess mortality (7·4 million [95% Crl 6·8–7·7] of 17·9 million deaths) was averted. In low-income countries, we estimated that an additional 45% (95% CrI 42–49) of deaths could have been averted had the 20% vaccination coverage target set by COVAX been met by each country, and that an additional 111% (105–118) of deaths could have been averted had the 40% target set by WHO been met by each country by the end of 2021.

Full study: Global impact of the first year of COVID-19 vaccination: a mathematical modelling study - The Lancet Infectious Diseases

[action]

1 hour ago, SoulMonster said:

From December 2020 to December 2021, COVID-19 vaccines are estimated to have saved about 20 million lives worldwide:

Based on official reported COVID-19 deaths, we estimated that vaccinations prevented 14·4 million (95% credible interval [Crl] 13·7–15·9) deaths from COVID-19 in 185 countries and territories between Dec 8, 2020, and Dec 8, 2021. This estimate rose to 19·8 million (95% Crl 19·1–20·4) deaths from COVID-19 averted when we used excess deaths as an estimate of the true extent of the pandemic, representing a global reduction of 63% in total deaths (19·8 million of 31·4 million) during the first year of COVID-19 vaccination. In COVAX Advance Market Commitment countries, we estimated that 41% of excess mortality (7·4 million [95% Crl 6·8–7·7] of 17·9 million deaths) was averted. In low-income countries, we estimated that an additional 45% (95% CrI 42–49) of deaths could have been averted had the 20% vaccination coverage target set by COVAX been met by each country, and that an additional 111% (105–118) of deaths could have been averted had the 40% target set by WHO been met by each country by the end of 2021.

Full study: Global impact of the first year of COVID-19 vaccination: a mathematical modelling study - The Lancet Infectious Diseases

great, an empirical study based on estimates

it's like you're estimating how the back of the moon looks like, before we got pictures. Maybe it looks like a clown face?

it's based on estimates.

If you're a fan of vaccines, your estimates will be higher, than if you're a vaccine critic.

Also, natural immunity has evaded a lot of deaths too. I estimate, around 50 million people.

You ask, where did I get that number? Same way as these scientists: estimation.

But, the article says, the estimation was inaccurate (for reasons):

"More broadly, our estimates should be considered in light of the considerable uncertainty inherent in estimating vaccine impact. Uncertainty in the true death toll of the pandemic, the circulating variants of concern and their immunological phenotypes, and the vaccines themselves administered in many countries vastly complicate efforts to derive accurate estimates of the impact of COVID-19 vaccines" (page 8)

somewhere in between the article, the scientists are aware of their limits and are honest enough to point them out:

"Directly measuring the impact of vaccination programmes on COVID-19 mortality is not possible as the counterfactual (ie, without vaccinations) cannot be observed" (page 7)

this is , therefore, NOT a study based on observation, but on estimation.

"Our impact estimates were also limited by the inherent uncertainty in model-based estimates of excess mortality" (page 8 of the pdf article)

the biggest offence this article makes though, is that they fit their model to "all cause mortality" excess deaths. See page 3: "Because of the heterogeneity in death registration and certification worldwide, we also fit the model to all-cause excess mortality." Why is this the biggest offence? Because the excess mortality could have just as well been caused by the vaccines themselves, and the known side effects which are outlined in the prescriptions of the vaccines. Myocardititis, strokes etc. Not a word of those in the article.

 

 

[dontdamnmeuyi2015]

Bottom covid is here to stay.

Even vaccines aren't stopping people from getting covid, but you have a better chance of avoiding going to the hospital and having an easier chance of recovery if you have been vaccinated and a booster or two.

The choice is yours, but if anyone thinks covid is gone or going away anytime soon,you are in denial.

[action]

numbers are rising again.

me, my wife and my son are unvaccinated.

my wife talked to her colleague last week, who tested positive for corona. her colleague (vaccinated), has high fever and is very sick. She's vaccinated.

We are all fine, and none of us are vaccinated.

[EvanG]

6 minutes ago, action said:

numbers are rising again.

me, my wife and my son are unvaccinated.

my wife talked to her colleague last week, who tested positive for corona. her colleague (vaccinated), has high fever and is very sick. She's vaccinated.

We are all fine, and none of us are vaccinated.

Didn't everyone in your family already have it? You've even said on here that you have had it twice....

[action]

32 minutes ago, EvanG said:

Didn't everyone in your family already have it? You've even said on here that you have had it twice....

oh, we've all had it multiple times

of course we have, how else are we going to build up immunity?

each occasion, we were less and less symptomatic.

Ask any immonologist: our natural immunity has a remarkable ability to counter viruses. (If we hadn't, we wouldn't live more than a week)

[EvanG]

4 minutes ago, action said:

oh, we've all had it multiple times

of course we have, how else are we going to build up immunity?

each occasion, we were less and less symptomatic.

Ask any immonologist: our natural immunity has a remarkable ability to counter viruses. (If we hadn't, we wouldn't live more than a week)

I haven't had it yet. At least not that I know of. I sat next to a person with Covid at work for several hours, but I still tested negative.

Edited July 14, 2022 by EvanG

[action]

4 minutes ago, EvanG said:

I haven't had it yet. At least not that I know of. I sat next to a person with Covid at work for several hours, but I still tested negative.

 

testing is an inaccurate affair. dont put all your faith in science. I'll give you one example:

https://www.hln.be/binnenland/documenten-onthullen-belgie-had-in-zomer-2020-bijna-uitsluitend-vals-testmateriaal-in-stock~ab6b916a/

the results of these tests make up scientific statistics, and these statistics influence politics. 

all based on fake testing, inaccurate tests, false positives, false negatives and other BS

the only thing you can trust, are not scientists or politicians, but your own body. your own immunity cells.

[EvanG]

Just now, action said:

but your own body. your own immunity cells.

Well, I trusted my own body and I didn't have any symptoms, but the thing is that I haven't had the common flu in twenty years, I don't seem to get sick often, so I figured I could still have it but without any symptoms, so I tested just to be sure. I was acually kinda bummed I didn't have it, because that meant I had to go to work the next day instead of having a good excuse to work from home all week...

[dontdamnmeuyi2015]

The local news said numbers are in the thousands again here in Texas with people with covid. Even hospitalizations too, but no ICU right now. This new variant is a bitch. 

It seems like it's ahead of us at every turn.

[SoulMonster]

10 hours ago, dontdamnmeuyi2015 said:

It seems like it's ahead of us at every turn.

It is not ahead of us in the sense that it somehow continuously predicts what we will do. In cases like this, and similar to "arms races" against antibiotic resistant bacteria, there is such a huge population of viruses that continuously mutate resulting in a large pool of genetic variation and within this population there are some that by chance are better at surviving whatever efforts we use to kill them. 

 

[downzy]

Got second booster today.  All four shots of Moderna.  Had the option to change things up and get Pfizer, but figured since I didn’t have any real issues after my previous moderna shots I’d stay consistent. 

[dontdamnmeuyi2015]

My mom got her second moderna booster today. 

I'm sure this will be a yearly event pretty soon.

Got to get my daughter her booster before school.  Got to try to stay safe from covid since it's not going anywhere anytime soon.

neither is monkey pox if people don't use their brains.

2 hours ago, downzy said:

Got second booster today.  All four shots of Moderna.  Had the option to change things up and get Pfizer, but figured since I didn’t have any real issues after my previous moderna shots I’d stay consistent. 

My mom too. yeah, not sure if you can mix them? Anyway, cool.

[SoulMonster]

Seems like a fourth dose will not be recommended here in Norway to people without underlying conditions because 2 or 3 doses seems to be sufficiently efficient against the current variants and are still effective.

[janrichmond]

Just tested negative, yay!

[downzy]

On 7/15/2022 at 1:26 PM, downzy said:

Got second booster today.  All four shots of Moderna.  Had the option to change things up and get Pfizer, but figured since I didn’t have any real issues after my previous moderna shots I’d stay consistent. 

So the fourth shot turned out to be the roughest. 

It was 24 hours of a really sore shoulder/arm, to the point where I really couldn’t move it without a lot of pain.  Then the fever hit me later in the day and I started to feel nauseous and dizzy.  So essentially a day crashing on the couch passing out to old episodes of Always Sunny in Philadelphia. Woke up this morning with a slightly sore shoulder but now feel fine. 

[AxlisOld]

2 hours ago, downzy said:

So the fourth shot turned out to be the roughest. 

It was 24 hours of a really sore shoulder/arm, to the point where I really couldn’t move it without a lot of pain.  Then the fever hit me later in the day and I started to feel nauseous and dizzy.  So essentially a day crashing on the couch passing out to old episodes of Always Sunny in Philadelphia. Woke up this morning with a slightly sore shoulder but now feel fine. 

That sounds more severe than my brother's family who all just had COVID for a second time. He said it was no worse than the common cold at this point.

[Marj]

4 hours ago, downzy said:

So the fourth shot turned out to be the roughest. 

It was 24 hours of a really sore shoulder/arm, to the point where I really couldn’t move it without a lot of pain.  Then the fever hit me later in the day and I started to feel nauseous and dizzy.  So essentially a day crashing on the couch passing out to old episodes of Always Sunny in Philadelphia. Woke up this morning with a slightly sore shoulder but now feel fine. 

Moderna ?

😖

[Marj]

I’ve had 3 moderna shots. It’s been awfull all 3times. Very sore arm, fever for 24hours and very tired.

I’ve caught covid 8weeks ago and it wasn’t worse than a bad cold. (My father in law who refused any shots had a bad cold too)
 

I work at a cancer research lab (sequencing) . I know how vaccines « work », I should be 100% pro vaccines but I really start to wonder if those vaccines really help. (I mean except for people with a condition) 

[SoulMonster]

3 minutes ago, Marj said:

I work at a cancer research lab (sequencing) . I know how vaccines « work », I should be 100% pro vaccines but I really start to wonder if those vaccines really help. (I mean except for people with a condition) 

There shouldn't be any doubts about how the vaccines reduce the likelihood of developing severe symptoms. The evidence for this is undeniable. 

Of course, for people who are able to fight off the infection with little symptoms, the vaccines makes less sense, but you don't know how you will react to the disease before you get it. 

[Marj]

I guess it depends what variant you catch, your health , genetics etc…

We´re playing russian roulette. 
 

I just really really hope that those vaccines are not about money…

Don’t get me wrong I think vaccines are great and necessary and they do reduce the risk of bad covid symptoms for a lot of people. Now like for all medecines we should make the balance risk-benefit. Maybe like antibiotics , using them wisely makes more sense. 
 

[downzy]

5 hours ago, Marj said:

Moderna ?

😖

Yeah, for all four shots. 

First three I felt little to no after effects.  Maybe a bit tired, a slight pain to my arm, and a temperature a degree or so above average. All treated with Tylenol. 

The fourth shot was a different story.

My wife has had a mixture of different vaccines.  First Astra, then Pfizer, and finally Moderna for her third booster. They generally hit her harder than me; but by far the worst for her was the Astra shot, followed by Pfizer. With her Moderna booster she only suffered a small headache and was better by the end of the day. 

[axlslash]

7 hours ago, SoulMonster said:

There shouldn't be any doubts about how the vaccines reduce the likelihood of developing severe symptoms. The evidence for this is undeniable. 

Of course, for people who are able to fight off the infection with little symptoms, the vaccines makes less sense, but you don't know how you will react to the disease before you get it. 

The purpose of a vaccine isn't always to prevent infection. It's to reduce the likelihood of a worst-case scenario, and the COVID vaccines do so at a staggeringly effective rate. Th primary reason this is still considered a "controversial" view is that our public discourse has been poisoned by bad-faith actors who have a vested interest in the general public not properly understanding how this stuff works. It's maddening.