What does the future hold?

[RONIN]

3 minutes ago, Fitha_whiskey said:

@JustanUrchin maybe you should bump up your thread from 2 years ago where all your insider legal contract knowledge predicted 3 members leaving, and Duff and Slash coming back. Because that was awesome how you used that to predict the future, like you are doing in this thread.

Not trying to pick a fight, but we'll wait...

 

Agreed. He knows what he's talking about. 

[Fitha_whiskey]

3 minutes ago, RONIN said:

Agreed. He knows what he's talking about. 

As far as my post is concerned, please adjust the squelch on your sarcasm detector...

If he really did see this "future" from 2 years back, then I'll stand corrected. Til then I see legal lingo from a disgruntled fan...

[RONIN]

34 minutes ago, Fitha_whiskey said:

As far as my post is concerned, please adjust the squelch on your sarcasm detector...

If he really did see this "future" from 2 years back, then I'll stand corrected. Til then I see legal lingo from a disgruntled fan...

I walked right into that huh? 

I think prognosticating is always tricky business especially when dealing with an unpredictable band like Guns. What I appreciate about Justanurchin is that he at least uses legal facts to back up whatever conclusions he draws. Regardless of whether one may agree with him or not (I've certainly disagreed with him before) - his arguments have more of a solid foundation than the conjecture we usually get on this forum. 

As far as his earlier post - I didn't really take it as you did. I think he's pointing out some of the logical fallacies that certain pro-Axl fans use in their posts which in truth feel revisionist to the actual history of the band. I just brought this up in an earlier thread where someone was talking about Ole Beich and Tracii Guns as original GnR members. Whether true or not - most of us can probably see that there's usually an agenda behind such comments (discrediting or diminishing Slash and Duff's place in the band). 

In any case, who knows how things will play out. I am really curious about the legal structure of GnR's partnership at this stage of the game. Is it reformed? Are Duff/Slash on 2 year contracts? That's a very real consideration when trying to figure out the longevity of this reunion...

Edited June 29, 2017 by RONIN

[wasted]

Some of this legal stuff shows how Slash and Duff held Axl back. Which they had every right to do. It shows how the rec company might find it harder to promote new Guns with only the name and Axl. Axl's personal opinion was that they left him and didnt want to do Guns, and now they trying to stop him. The fact Axl didn't get all the rights shows that it wasn't a takeover, it was just some protection. The idea he wanted Slash and Duff to quit leaving him in the shit seems bizarre. And Axl was still offering Slash a place in GNR in 2001. Legal partnerships are almost symbolic. They could make another one in 5 seconds for the AFD5 if they agree. 

So I don't think the legal stuff always tells the real story. Axl may form snother partnership but still really want Slash etc. Duff isn't necessarily evil because he didn't think Adler could cut it. He was just handling the legalities of that situation. There is something to the idea Izzy didnt put the work in to build the UYI product they are now selling. Also if Axl was such a sell out why are they playing CD songs. The point has been made that the Big 3 need the money for their lifestyles, its just a shame that to make it the thing has to get so serious with the insurers that Adler/Izzy are marginalized. That's just the nature of the beast. I don't theres much malice from the band. 

But I see more now why new Guns never fully got off the ground. The legal stuff was minefield for anyone trying to sell the band. Also the controlling power of Live Nation. They can literally stop things happening and have an agenda. 

[RONIN]

18 minutes ago, wasted said:

Some of this legal stuff shows how Slash and Duff held Axl back. Which they had every right to do. It shows how the rec company might find it harder to promote new Guns with only the name and Axl. Axl's personal opinion was that they left him and didnt want to do Guns, and now they trying to stop him. The fact Axl didn't get all the rights shows that it wasn't a takeover, it was just some protection. The idea he wanted Slash and Duff to quit leaving him in the shit seems bizarre. And Axl was still offering Slash a place in GNR in 2001. Legal partnerships are almost symbolic. They could make another one in 5 seconds for the AFD5 if they agree. 

So I don't think the legal stuff always tells the real story. Axl may form snother partnership but still really want Slash etc. Duff isn't necessarily evil because he didn't think Adler could cut it. He was just handling the legalities of that situation. There is something to the idea Izzy didnt put the work in to build the UYI product they are now selling. Also if Axl was such a sell out why are they playing CD songs. The point has been made that the Big 3 need the money for their lifestyles, its just a shame that to make it the thing has to get so serious with the insurers that Adler/Izzy are marginalized. That's just the nature of the beast. I don't theres much malice from the band. 

But I see more now why new Guns never fully got off the ground. The legal stuff was minefield for anyone trying to sell the band. Also the controlling power of Live Nation. They can literally stop things happening and have an agenda. 

Great post here.

Just to address a few things you brought up -

Axl playing CD songs: It's a way of legitimizing the new guns years. If they dropped those songs completely, it would only reflect poorly on the 20 years Axl labored over that album.

Live Nation/Slash/Duff interfering with Axl - Sure, it's possible. I think Duff and Slash protected their interests. They did the right thing of blocking Axl from drawing from their royalty accounts to fund Chinese Democracy. That makes sense.

I believe Axl had a ton of cache to use in the late 90's/early 2000's to get NU Guns off to a rolling start. Truth is - the guy choked Wasted. The 2002 tour was a disaster, the MTV VMAS was a disaster, and no album was released to promote the new band. It's too bad really - he had a real, legitimate shot to add a second chapter to the band.

Post 2002 - it's just diminishing returns from lack of interest. I think a lot of people who were frozen in time with their perception of Axl and GnR were burned by 2002 and deserted the band. 

Could Slash and Duff have made it easier for Axl by just letting him run roughshod legally without enforcing their rights? Sure. Would the result have been any different? Doubtful. Axl is a self destructive guy and it's anyone's guess if he even likes releasing music. UYI had to be forced out of his hands by the band and record company. If I was a betting man, I would say that the end result would still be the same, even if Duff and Slash stood aside legally and let him do his thing.

[wasted]

52 minutes ago, RONIN said:

Great post here.

Just to address a few things you brought up -

Axl playing CD songs: It's a way of legitimizing the new guns years. If they dropped those songs completely, it would only reflect poorly on the 20 years Axl labored over that album.

Live Nation/Slash/Duff interfering with Axl - Sure, it's possible. I think Duff and Slash protected their interests. They did the right thing of blocking Axl from drawing from their royalty accounts to fund Chinese Democracy. That makes sense.

I believe Axl had a ton of cache to use in the late 90's/early 2000's to get NU Guns off to a rolling start. Truth is - the guy choked Wasted. The 2002 tour was a disaster, the MTV VMAS was a disaster, and no album was released to promote the new band. It's too bad really - he had a real, legitimate shot to add a second chapter to the band.

Post 2002 - it's just diminishing returns from lack of interest. I think a lot of people who were frozen in time with their perception of Axl and GnR were burned by 2002 and deserted the band. 

Could Slash and Duff have made it easier for Axl by just letting him run roughshod legally without enforcing their rights? Sure. Would the result have been any different? Doubtful. Axl is a self destructive guy and it's anyone's guess if he even likes releasing music. UYI had to be forced out of his hands by the band and record company. If I was a betting man, I would say that the end result would still be the same, even if Duff and Slash stood aside legally and let him do his thing.

I was just saying that the scenario of LN and S/D controlling the reunion doesn't fit the inclusion of CD songs or even nu Guns members. If Axl was crawling as much as stated. At first glance Axl was the bad guy in this thing. But it turns out not really. 

True it was fair enough that Axl didn't get all the licensing but I can still see Axl/label wanting to use the logo and artwork. And that would help the label sell it. 

We've been through the 99-2000 thing before. Tommy said the label didn't like the raw sounds on the Beavan recordings. I can see how they wouldn't think they had a GNR sounding album in their hands.

Zutaut said the label wanted to sell like 20 mil, they didn't think they had a single.

Jimmy offered to bring in RTB obviously to get the best out of the ballads. In the end they brought in Ezrin to tell Axl it wasn't ready. This all really way before the idea that the record was really delayed. It wasn't a huge media story.

And it was way before 2004 when VR actually made a real contribution. So I think at that time they were just looking to get it right and capitalize on the flagship band. There were rec company upheavals too. Live Era was prefered to CD no doubt.

I believe Axl was ready to go even in 99 but there was no support for it on the scale the label were wanting. I think licensing and artwork might have made it easier for the label. 

I think it was greed on the labels part first. They really thought Axl and a few Nov Rains could make them big money. Remember they just lost the flagship band. But Axl got Marilyn Manson/NIN producer - it probably fit the time but didn't sound like GNR.  To me they didn't support new Guns, they wanted old Guns. They didn't treat them like a new band with potential, a fresh start. 

If someone came in and said here's 20 mil for videos for Chi dem, Blues, Madagascar, we'll put out Silkworms to cause a stir, put Oh my god on an Arnold movie, I think it would happen. But they hesitated because they wanted bigger sales. 4-10 was probably garuanteed at that time. They wanted 200 mil off a GNR record and anyone attached to the project that was the goal. Anyone looking at it probably thought first order of business bring back Slash. 

But right by 2002, they were starting to pick the album apart again with Costanzo because the label didnt think it was ready. On that 2002 tour the record wasn't finished, Ezrin had just blocked it going to mix. If anything that tour ended to go back to sort out what to do. Axl was probably completely lost about what to do. In some ways he should have just got a clone Slash to produce blues hard rock because then the label would have given it a green light. But I respect Axl went with something truer to his influences. In the end I think they got there with the record. It just wasn't on the industry's terms. 

It seems like by 2004 with finished versions of Shacklers, Sorry, If the World, Scraped, they had something they wanted to release. 2004 ultimatum. This is where Axl didn't go, maybe because of VR? But then Bucket left. From that point Axl had to tour to fund the finishing of the record and then some how find a way to sell it, which by then the label had no idea how to. By then 5 mil garuanteed sales was down to 500k. 

Edited June 30, 2017 by wasted

[JustanUrchin]

23 hours ago, Oldest Goat said:

1. My contempt for fellow posters?! I just told someone I would go gay for them! I've only got so much love to give!  Your comment is especially strange since my most recent posts were literally wishing people well...so what the heck are you talking about?
2. Don't try making up bullshit about me religiously reading your posts when I don't even know who you are and this is only like the 3rd one I've ever even seen...ya lying little shit haha.
3. Yeah, I'm aware I'm from New Zealand and that GNR are an American rock band......

Good stuff.

Your recent post history shows exactly what I said it does:  a staggering number of (opinion) posts and a barely masked contempt for fellow posters.  I am a fellow poster.  I hadn’t the faintest that you’ve been poaching my posts until you quoted me.  But, of course, it’s only been, “like the third” time.   You’re the John who has a sloppy go at my seconds after big daddy pimp has had his way all day, and proud you are of it.

A guy who has 2,758 posts, the majority of which would have to had occurred during the two-decade embarrassment brought about by the Most Dangerous Pianist in the World, mocks me about the length of a post explaining the relevance of pleadings and legal fact.  Then he and two bend over boys in the last two pages spit out barely intelligible incoherencies.  You just can’t make shit like this up.  But who knows, maybe the singer’s live-ins threw a few pesos their way to afford lunch for the week or tossed in an authentic, heavily-used urinal of said pianist.

If you’ve got a substantive contention with what I’ve presented about the structure of this biz org and the meaning of the relevant legal pleadings, which are the bulk of my 65 posts, bring it forward.  Otherwise enjoy my “pseudo-intellectual” sloppy seconds.  They’ll only be available for a limited time—three weeks, likely as not.

[JustanUrchin]

13 hours ago, Fitha_whiskey said:

@JustanUrchin maybe you should bump up your thread from 2 years ago where all your insider legal contract knowledge predicted 3 members leaving, and Duff and Slash coming back. Because that was awesome how you used that to predict the future, like you are doing in this thread.

Not trying to pick a fight, but we'll wait...

 

A click on my profile shows that I joined on June 20, 2016.  Maybe it was an imposter making these phantom predictions which you attribute to me?  Or maybe I stole another poster’s username to make said phantom predictions?

The furthest thing from my mind two years ago, quite literally, was joining a forum to make predictions about the Most Dangerous Pianist in the World and his solo band playing Gn’R covers from 30 years ago to sold-out bowling alleys.

[wasted]

Is it 2012? Marty I think we are back!

[Eric Cantona]

17 minutes ago, wasted said:

Is it 2012? Marty I think we are back!

Great Scott

[Whiskey Rose]

3 hours ago, Oldest Goat said:

lmfao seriously though wtf is the poster's deal...

I fixed it, ties in a little better, no? 

[Tom-Ass]

20 hours ago, DieselDaisy said:

The problem is Axl. We all know Slash and Duff would love to collaborate on a new Guns record again.

Pretty sure they would also like to collaborate with Steven, Izzy, Matt or Gilby while doing it too..

[GnrJasmin92]

Axl will release a new record when JustanUrchin gets rid of his fedora & stops writing like 'the singer'. 

[Marie82]

27 minutes ago, GnrJasmin92 said:

Axl will release a new record when JustanUrchin gets rid of his fedora & stops writing like 'the singer'. 

Get In The Ring part 2 is coming...with a very special mention to JustanUrchin. 

[Ratam]

13 minutes ago, Marie82 said:

Get In The Ring part 2 is coming...with a very special mention to JustanUrchin. 

Sorry ,out of likes,gooo!! MARIE82

[BlueJean Baby]

@JustanUrchin I have one question, who in the fuck are you? You obviously have some sort of connection to have the information you are elaborating on and some sort of huge beef with Axl. No random fan, would come up with this stuff just for the hell of it. ?

Not trying to start a fight with you,  but I have been on GNR forums since 1999, and find your comments odd, to say the least. And the amount of animosity you present toward Axl very disturbing. ?

[MillionsOfSpiders]

Alan Niven 

[Ratam]

2 minutes ago, MillionsOfSpiders said:

Alan Niven 

??????

[janrichmond]

12 minutes ago, BlueJean Baby said:

@JustanUrchin I have one question, who in the fuck are you? You obviously have some sort of connection to have the information you are elaborating on and some sort of huge beef with Axl. No random fan, would come up with this stuff just for the hell of it. ?

Not trying to start a fight with you,  but I have been on GNR forums since 1999, and find your comments odd, to say the least. And the amount of animosity you present toward Axl very disturbing. ?

MSL? 

[Bluefish18]

Doesn't much matter who he is as long as he keeps coming up with nuggets like "Worlds most dangerous pianist"! Spit my coffee all over the screen with that one.... I personally think he makes some valid points.  I'm intrigued to see what happens in the next few weeks.  Definitely not MSL - he's been extremely quiet since he handed over the GNRTruth reigns to the over sensitive Morrison wannabe.

[RONIN]

59 minutes ago, BlueJean Baby said:

@JustanUrchin I have one question, who in the fuck are you? You obviously have some sort of connection to have the information you are elaborating on and some sort of huge beef with Axl. No random fan, would come up with this stuff just for the hell of it. ?

Not trying to start a fight with you,  but I have been on GNR forums since 1999, and find your comments odd, to say the least. And the amount of animosity you present toward Axl very disturbing. ?

I've had a number of conversations with him. He's just an AFD/LIES era fan that didn't care for the way Axl ran the band into the ground. Nothing more, nothing less. He seems to also be well-versed with his legal-ese. 

[RONIN]

Maybe this means something or nothing at all:

Matt Sorum follows Izzy Stradlin on Twitter but does not follow Slash and Duff. S/D follow Matt. 

Izzy doesn't follow anyone but Keith Richards and Ronnie Wood. Duff and Slash do not follow Izzy. 

Duff follows Gilby.

Nobody follows Steven Adler.

 

Edited June 30, 2017 by RONIN

[xBrownstonex]

On 28.6.2017 at 4:56 PM, JustanUrchin said:

These questions are making me sweat!  A prime offering of why Gn’R fans were and are badass.  You should’ve been front n’ center at the China Exchange.  I’m hesitant to answer—I don’t want a failing grade!

But here goes.  The legal facts are inescapable.  Slash and Duff, as Remaining Original Partners, boxed the singer in from NYD ’96 (when the singer quit Original Gn’R to form his solo “new band” and register a “new p’ship”) until ’14 when he came crawling back to them to seek approval to license his cover/solo band’s Vegas DVD.  What Slash n’ Duff fail to disclose in their accounts (and legal pleadings reigning the singer in), is that while the singer lied about the timing of the MOU in which he pirated the trademark, they BOTH failed to bring colorable action before the four-year statute of limitations in California had run.  They would’ve had to bring suit in ’96 since the MOU was signed in ’92 (even though Axl indisputably lied in his “open letter” about the timing of when he presented the MOU).  Since ’98, however, both Slash and Duff, with clear heads, have been an inseparable rock legally.  They controlled Original Gn’R’s sole asset—the back catalogue—while they were winning Grammies, and never wavered to Axl’s solo Gn’R (licensing, merch, synch, and so on).  It was a stalemate.  Axl controlled the trademark, as Leaving Partner, but failed to capitalize on it to the extent of late-night talk show mockery.  What’s a control freak with trademark in tow without the guitarist that made him famous?  That’s not rhetorical—what’s the trademark Coca-Cola without the recipe?

It likely seems that I’m avoiding your insightful questions, but stick with me.  My forte is more identifying and translating legal fact and pleadings to root out myth, revisionism, and contrarianism so that we can all get to a common understanding given the singer’s (and his live-ins) indisputable revisionism and litigiousness.  If I offer opinion based upon the legal pleadings and recent, relevant legal facts coupled with my own observations, it’s bound to be unpopular.  And right quick.

But if there’s ever a time, it’s on the eve of AFD 30 while the negotiation pokers are likely in the fire.  Eyes are on this board, after all—the tail wags the dog, particularly in light of the monstrosity, conglomerate LN culling its data and the hypersensitivities of the singer to insight drawn from fact.  Here goes:

The singer is coasting along, happy as a pig in shit that Slash is carrying/owning the show to the masses in sold-out stadiums world-wide, and is high as a kite on, what appears to me, to be a cocktail of psychotropic meds given his blunted affect at CE and Globo.  He capitulated to Remaining Original Gn’R Partners Slash and Duff for a payday assuredly now into the tens of millions, and for peace of mind.  He is now adored the world over for simply showing up on time (even though as a result of a coercive division of loss term), lazying out a Barry Gibb falsetto, and flashing a shit-eating grin for the opposite gender (“oh, look how happy this ‘most dangerous’ singer is”).  But he’s dumber than a box of rocks, a Jim Jones recruit-type lackey, and is now grandfather age.  He has the mind of a child, and his raging live-ins make Elvis’ posse look legit.  After being beaten down by Slash and Duff to the point that he couldn’t pay his umpteenth “keyboardist” to infringe upon copyrighted what-have-you German ambient noise, he is the quintessential sellout. 

LiveNation.  LN, and its insurers, run the show.  Second only to Slash and Duff’s separate counsel and (professional) management.  Forget about the stamped tail of the jet—this is a data culling conglomerate with more subsidiaries than I have hairs on my head.  Great that they’ve stifled the singer’s bully live-ins and professionally sell the tour, but it’s “diversity” first.  Adler’s fourth replacement looks like more of the world than Adler himself—Adler (God love him) is a super-minority Jew that looks like a “white” Californian.  The second what-have-you on “keys” looks like more of the world than the what-have-you before her (some guy with a towel or whatever?) .  And, bonus! she’s female.  We’ve gotta sell Asia, south of America, and the Mid-East.  Not many folks look like Adler in any of those places, as I can attest to, as having travelled to all.

Duff Money has been a financial consultant and (successful) writer longer than he was ever recording and performing for Original Gn’R.   This multi-millionaire (on investments alone) is so far removed from reality that he is an open socialist bathing in capitalism.   Mr. Punk Rock/HR Man sent Adler to the sidelines due to injury.  Duff Money, to me, is the disgusting party in this grab.

Izzy got out while the getting was good.  By offering his equity share (that was gobbled up by S/D/A) he avoided all legal liability and drawing from his capital account resulting from the singer’s assholery and criminal acts while still maintaining his juicy cut of the publishing royalties.  Mind you, Remaining Partners Slash and Duff were eating the singer’s “recording” indulgence until 1998 from the singer’s SOLO BAND.  And, to my memory, Izzy wasn’t necessarily a tight guitarist live—that’s the kind of shit that matters today, a 50+ year-old guitarist with no known riffs in the rock community who has made a living playing Izzy’s chords better than Izzy and picking in and around Slash as Izzy once did.  He’s none too happy, as the record shows.  “Stuck in the Middle,” “F.P. Money” with Adler’s first/metal replacement, and the “bullshit” reply to the singer’s, well, bullshit (as Duff Money sat in complicity).

Slash is the perpetual busy body—hence the nickname.  He, more than anyone else, knows that the singer can no longer bring it (live, anyhow).  Despite once being an unprincipled thief and dope fiend, he is rock defined.  That motherfucker can raise the dead with his tone alone.  But he’s bored as fuck with this S/D/A reunion.  This man holds the keys to your new music.  He is not going to work up the singer’s shitfest of material that the singer alluded to at the CE—it’s one of the primary reasons he didn’t cowtail on to the singer’s solo band to begin with.

The insightful questions, then, come back your way.   Sure, recordings are profitable—ask the likes of “Jay-Z.”  To say that it just isn’t so is just another form of Axl apologism.  Slash will lay down his tracks in days or weeks.  But to what?

But then there’s Adler.  He’s my bellwether.  Silence is as silence does.

What drugs are you on excactly? Seems to be good shit.

[AlexC]

It's really difficult to take you seriously @JustanUrchin You start off that gargantuan post talking about how the reunion came about (admittedly saying it's based on your "observations" (of what exactly?) But still, your reasoning seems plausible-ish.) But then it sort of warps into a kind of outrageously exaggerated and caricature breakdown of each member.

Then we get to your description of Slash and all becomes clear. It's pretty obvious that you're just a MASSIVE Slash fan-boy and are attempting to disguise your bias with faux legal jargon. And you almost succeed.

Unfortunately your weird, homo-erotic hatred of Axl gives you away repeatedly through that whacky 'all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy' style essay.

You scare me.

[Ratam]

22 minutes ago, xBrownstonex said:

What drugs are you on excactly? Seems to be good shit.

He write  Testament number three, ,The Bible" number three