Covid-19 Thread

[action]

6 minutes ago, SoulMonster said:

Uhm, you claimed there was a 0.2 % probability of a child dying after getting infected with the corona virus while it was actually 0.0 %. That's not really "a couple of wrong procent points", but still very wrong.

yes, but it's really an academic discussion, since you have then acknowledged that children may, and probably will, die in the future, but in very small numbers. So the 0.2 %, may be close to the eventuel death rate anyway.

but ok, it just strikes me as odd that you would consider "a few thousand years" as "just about the same time", but a difference of 0.2 procent points gets you in full blown scientist mode... only to come to basically the same conclusion as me. 

[TheSeeker]

 

[action]

don't put your money in the microwave

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/coronavirus-how-to-disinfect-china-jiangyin-city-jiangsu-microwave-burns-cash-a9374451.html

but I found also this:

In view of the existing situation in conventional sterilization, a special microwave disinfector using high-power microwave energy was made. To detect the microwave effects of disinfection, a series of sterilizing experiments on several typical indicated bacteria (or virus) such as Bacillus subtilis var. nigar, Bacillus stearothermophilus, Bacillus pumilus E/sub 601/, Staphylococcus aureas, Bacillus cereus and HB/sub A/Sg were performed by the disinfector. Under the conditions of different sterilization duration and unequal intensity of microwave power irradiation onto the bacteria (or virus), a useful result of killing bacteria has been observed, i.e., the Bacillus subtilis can be considered as an optimum indicated bacterium for microwave sterilization.

https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/351892

and this

“Microwave. Microwaves are used in medicine for disinfection of soft contact lenses, dental instruments, dentures, milk, and urinary catheters for intermittent self-catheterization925-931. However, microwaves must only be used with products that are compatible (e.g., do not melt) 931. Microwaves are radio-frequency waves, which are usually used at a frequency of 2450 MHz. The microwaves produce friction of water molecules in an alternating electrical field. The intermolecular friction derived from the vibrations generates heat and some authors believe that the effect of microwaves depends on the heat produced while others postulate a nonthermal lethal effect932-934. The initial reports showed microwaves to be an effective microbicide. The microwaves produced by a "home-type" microwave oven (2.45 GHz) completely inactivate bacterial cultures, mycobacteria, viruses, and G. stearothermophilus spores within 60 seconds to 5 minutes depending on the challenge organism933, 935-937. Another study confirmed these resuIts but also found that higher power microwaves in the presence of water may be needed for sterilization932. Complete destruction of Mycobacterium bovis was obtained with 4 minutes of microwave exposure (600W, 2450 MHz)937. The effectiveness of microwave ovens for different sterilization and disinfection purposes should be tested and demonstrated as test conditions affect the results (e.g., presence of water, microwave power). Sterilization of metal instruments can be accomplished but requires certain precautions926. Of concern is that home-type microwave ovens may not have even distribution of microwave energy over the entire dry device (there may be hot and cold spots on solid medical devices); hence there may be areas that are not sterilized or disinfected. The use of microwave ovens to disinfect intermittent-use catheters also has been suggested. Researchers found that test bacteria (e.g., E. coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Candida albicans) were eliminated from red rubber catheters within 5 minutes 931. Microwaves used for sterilization of medical devices have not been FDA cleared.”

https://www.quora.com/Can-I-use-a-microwave-oven-for-sterilization-dry-heat-method-of-medical-equipment-if-an-autocleve-device-is-not-available

Edited March 7, 2020 by action

[SoulMonster]

9 hours ago, action said:

yes, but it's really an academic discussion, since you have then acknowledged that children may, and probably will, die in the future, but in very small numbers. So the 0.2 %, may be close to the eventuel death rate anyway.

No, it isn't an "academic discussion" whether 0.2 % of infected children die, or none. That's a pretty important thing. We don't know what the actual fatality rate for children will be, but sooner or later some children are bound to die from this disease so it is likely to be > 0.000 %. But it will be much lower than 0.2 %. And just compare 0.2 % with, say, 0.002 %: In a population of 1,000,000 children (and it is not unreasonable that so many children could get infected by this virus before it is over), then we are talking about the difference between 2,000 children dying or 20 children dying. That's a difference of 1,800 children dying. Not just an academic discussion.

Btw, the number of new cases in China today is 146. It was 143 yesterday. So still no sign of it increasing again. That being said, if Chinese government has slowed than the epidemic spread to many regions of China, it could be that the number of infected would rise dramatically again as the disease got foothold in other provinces in China. It wouldn't be a new outbreak as we discussed, but just the disease moving to new regions resulting in an upswing in new cases. Similarly to how we are now starting to see an upswing in total cases world-wide due to the disease having spread to other countries.

And regarding other countries, I have to say I am not really impressed with what the Trump administration is doing in the USA. They have a national fatality of 5.1 %. Sounds terrible but this just means that they test very few people and hence the number of infected is under-estimated. Likely they have 10 times as many infected (resulting in the actual fatality rate being much lower). What that means is that they have little control over the epidemic, they are not able to follow the disease nor isolate the infected, meaning it will spread like wildfire. Well done there, Trump!

As for how this will all pan out:

If I were to look at a worse case scenario, I would probably go with 20 % infected and a 3 % fatality rate. I find it unlikely that the number of infected can get higher than 20 % (it was about 11 % in Hubei). The fatality rate will likely vary a lot from country to country, but counting in poorer countries around the world, I think a worse case scenario could have this fatality rate. In a global population of 7 billion this would result in about 4.2 million deaths.

A best case scenario would likely be to take the number of deaths in Hubei, China and extrapolating that to the rest of the world. I think about 3,000 has died i Hubei, with a population of about 57 million. Extrapolated to the entire world, this results in about 368,000 deaths world-wide. But the disease got to rampage freely in Wubei for a little while. causing a high infection pressure, so likely it will be much less elsewhere, say, about 150,000 deaths?

We are on the scale of seasonal flu here. Then to me, at least, the big question is whether covid-19 will become a seasonal thing or whether it will die out this year. Will it mutate to annual new forms? Will we develop immunity? Will it take over for seasonal flu as the big viral killer? Or will it peter out and we will quickly forget about it?

2 hours ago, action said:

don't put your money in the microwave

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/coronavirus-how-to-disinfect-china-jiangyin-city-jiangsu-microwave-burns-cash-a9374451.html

but I found also this:

In view of the existing situation in conventional sterilization, a special microwave disinfector using high-power microwave energy was made. To detect the microwave effects of disinfection, a series of sterilizing experiments on several typical indicated bacteria (or virus) such as Bacillus subtilis var. nigar, Bacillus stearothermophilus, Bacillus pumilus E/sub 601/, Staphylococcus aureas, Bacillus cereus and HB/sub A/Sg were performed by the disinfector. Under the conditions of different sterilization duration and unequal intensity of microwave power irradiation onto the bacteria (or virus), a useful result of killing bacteria has been observed, i.e., the Bacillus subtilis can be considered as an optimum indicated bacterium for microwave sterilization.

https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/351892

and this

“Microwave. Microwaves are used in medicine for disinfection of soft contact lenses, dental instruments, dentures, milk, and urinary catheters for intermittent self-catheterization925-931. However, microwaves must only be used with products that are compatible (e.g., do not melt) 931. Microwaves are radio-frequency waves, which are usually used at a frequency of 2450 MHz. The microwaves produce friction of water molecules in an alternating electrical field. The intermolecular friction derived from the vibrations generates heat and some authors believe that the effect of microwaves depends on the heat produced while others postulate a nonthermal lethal effect932-934. The initial reports showed microwaves to be an effective microbicide. The microwaves produced by a "home-type" microwave oven (2.45 GHz) completely inactivate bacterial cultures, mycobacteria, viruses, and G. stearothermophilus spores within 60 seconds to 5 minutes depending on the challenge organism933, 935-937. Another study confirmed these resuIts but also found that higher power microwaves in the presence of water may be needed for sterilization932. Complete destruction of Mycobacterium bovis was obtained with 4 minutes of microwave exposure (600W, 2450 MHz)937. The effectiveness of microwave ovens for different sterilization and disinfection purposes should be tested and demonstrated as test conditions affect the results (e.g., presence of water, microwave power). Sterilization of metal instruments can be accomplished but requires certain precautions926. Of concern is that home-type microwave ovens may not have even distribution of microwave energy over the entire dry device (there may be hot and cold spots on solid medical devices); hence there may be areas that are not sterilized or disinfected. The use of microwave ovens to disinfect intermittent-use catheters also has been suggested. Researchers found that test bacteria (e.g., E. coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Candida albicans) were eliminated from red rubber catheters within 5 minutes 931. Microwaves used for sterilization of medical devices have not been FDA cleared.”

https://www.quora.com/Can-I-use-a-microwave-oven-for-sterilization-dry-heat-method-of-medical-equipment-if-an-autocleve-device-is-not-available

Just use soap

[action]

2 hours ago, SoulMonster said:

 

Just use soap

on my food?

[SoulMonster]

2 minutes ago, action said:

on my food?

Oh, maybe not

Why would you want to sterilize your food? 

[action]

1 hour ago, SoulMonster said:

Oh, maybe not

Why would you want to sterilize your food? 

stuff like pupcakes, that everyone can touch before chosing. stuff like chocolate breads and shit. basically, bulk goods that everyone can touch and that has not been emballaged in plastic

still not hysterical, though

Edited March 7, 2020 by action

[SoulMonster]

1 hour ago, action said:

stuff like pupcakes, that everyone can touch before chosing. stuff like chocolate breads and shit. basically, bulk goods that everyone can touch and that has not been emballaged in plastic

still not hysterical, though

Just boil it  Boiled cupcakes, yummy. 

Edited March 7, 2020 by SoulMonster

[action]

2 hours ago, SoulMonster said:

Just boil it  Boiled cupcakes, yummy. 

what is your opinion on the effects of microwaves on viruses?

an important fact to consider here is wether viruses are made up of water molecules?

or another option: extreme heat. Say, 220°C. Would that kill the viruses, say in a timeframe of 4 minutes?

that's information that would actually be usefull to me.

Edited March 7, 2020 by action

[SoulMonster]

4 minutes ago, action said:

what is your opinion on the effects of microwaves on viruses?

I have no idea. I think you ought to talk to an expert of virus structure for these questions.

[soon]

You can easily sanitize the things food goes in at least...

More than likely a food grade, no rinse, liquid sanitizer that you can get from a home-brew/wine making shop should solve most of your desired uses.

In food preserving, when we are canning before we begin, we fill each jar with boiling water and let it sit for 30 mins to sterilize the jars. One can no doubt visit your countries website for its 'best practices' for these types of things.

I use my pressure cooker to sterilize substrates/soils. Could be something to look into other applications for? Or not. I dunno. Come to think of it, leave the pressure cooker out of it, lol. 

Again, your govt website should have food level sanitation info for things like canning and maybe home brewing. Just look into the info available from the gov. 

 

(Note: I am not doing these things with regards to the virus in my home. But its ridiculous how much this virus engages all my passions and hobbies!)

 

Edited March 7, 2020 by soon

[downzy]

@SoulMonster

This is my main concern.  

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/06/coronavirus-testing-failure-123166

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/6/21168087/cdc-coronavirus-test-kits-covid-19

It's not that there are not policies and practices to contain the virus, but that the response is being (mis)managed by people who shouldn't manage a lemonade stand.  I have zero faith that Trump and his administration will do what is required to contain the outbreak; I see current U.S. leadership as likely to exacerbate the problem.  

[SoulMonster]

12 minutes ago, downzy said:

@SoulMonster

This is my main concern.  

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/06/coronavirus-testing-failure-123166

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/6/21168087/cdc-coronavirus-test-kits-covid-19

It's not that there are not policies and practices to contain the virus, but that the response is being (mis)managed by people who shouldn't manage a lemonade stand.  I have zero faith that Trump and his administration will do what is required to contain the outbreak; I see current U.S. leadership as likely to exacerbate the problem.  

You know I am not a fan of Trump or his administration but I was still surprised by how badly this was handled. I saw Pompeo blame the Chinese for not being transparent and helpful, yet other countries doesn't seem to share that complaint and seem to deal much better with the epidemic. 

[AxlRoseCDII]

Believe it or not, I’m personally inclined to believe the mortality rate of COVID-19 is 1%. There are many people who go untested, due to mild or being asymptomatic. There have been a dozen deaths in the USA but I would estimate that there are already thousands of undetected cases. Same with how China was rumored to be only testing people who were very ill as opposed to mild or potential asymptomatic. USA has been very much under testing, with evidence of the virus spreading here since January. Fuck knows how many cases we have.

Edited March 7, 2020 by AxlRoseCDII

[YOUCOULDBEMINE.]

20 hours ago, downzy said:

Apparently sex-crime investigators working on behalf of the Vatican (talk about guaranteed job security) are postponing their trip to Mexico because of COVID-19. 

I guess there’s a few priests in Mexico who feel like their prayers were answered. 

Duuuuuuude 

[YOUCOULDBEMINE.]

3 hours ago, action said:

or another option: extreme heat. Say, 220°C. Would that kill the viruses, say in a timeframe of 4 minutes?

that's information that would actually be usefull to me.

You have a lifesize microwave to put your family in???

[action]

4 minutes ago, UcudBmine said:

You have a lifesize microwave to put your family in???

I'm not a witch

[YOUCOULDBEMINE.]

Just now, action said:

I'm not a witch

I'm sorry man, just wanted to lighten up this thread a bit 

Also, did nót know witches had those, maybe the witch from Hans & Grietje since she made her whole house out of candy. 

[ArthurMorgan]

2 hours ago, SoulMonster said:

You know I am not a fan of Trump or his administration but I was still surprised by how badly this was handled. I saw Pompeo blame the Chinese for not being transparent and helpful, yet other countries doesn't seem to share that complaint and seem to deal much better with the epidemic. 

I read this too, and my eyes rolled to the back of my head. Like the US is such a staple of transparency.. oh, the irony!

[downzy]

1 hour ago, AxlRoseCDII said:

Believe it or not, I’m personally inclined to believe the mortality rate of COVID-19 is 1%. There are many people who go untested, due to mild or being asymptomatic. There have been a dozen deaths in the USA but I would estimate that there are already thousands of undetected cases. Same with how China was rumored to be only testing people who were very ill as opposed to mild or potential asymptomatic. USA has been very much under testing, with evidence of the virus spreading here since January. Fuck knows how many cases we have.

I think context matters here. 

If you’re under 60 or 70, have an immune system that isn’t relatively compromised, and have decent access to health services, you’ll be fine.

But if you don’t have any or all of those descriptors, your chance of dying will be significantly higher. 

There’s also the concern that the more the virus spreads the greater the risk it could mutate and become something worse. There’s a lot of unknowns. The H1N1 pandemic was initially blamed for less than 20k deaths but that number was revised to 200k-500k deaths after further research. 

The reality is there are no guarantees as we still don’t know everything about the disease nor can we be confident that having the Trump administration in charge that the outbreak will be managed to minimize as much death and suffering as possible. 

[Dazey]

5 hours ago, action said:

what is your opinion on the effects of microwaves on viruses?

an important fact to consider here is wether viruses are made up of water molecules?

or another option: extreme heat. Say, 220°C. Would that kill the viruses, say in a timeframe of 4 minutes?

that's information that would actually be usefull to me.

A microwave won’t heat anything above 100C. 

[action]

48 minutes ago, downzy said:

we still don’t know everything about the disease 

by this point, this is about the only thing that keeps nagging at me.

i'm sure by next year, we'll have more knowledge, and if there's another outbreak people and governments will act a little less hysterical about this.

but this lack of knowledge, the uncertainty, is killing me

2 minutes ago, Dazey said:

A microwave won’t heat anything above 100C. 

but it makes water molecules go haywire. that's why I asked soul if a virus is made, at least partially, of water molecules. the waves would effectively destroy the virus, like a mini CERN particle accelerator, smashing them to smithereens

[AxlRoseCDII]

40 minutes ago, downzy said:

I think context matters here. 

If you’re under 60 or 70, have an immune system that isn’t relatively compromised, and have decent access to health services, you’ll be fine.

But if you don’t have any or all of those descriptors, your chance of dying will be significantly higher. 

There’s also the concern that the more the virus spreads the greater the risk it could mutate and become something worse. There’s a lot of unknowns. The H1N1 pandemic was initially blamed for less than 20k deaths but that number was revised to 200k-500k deaths after further research. 

The reality is there are no guarantees as we still don’t know everything about the disease nor can we be confident that having the Trump administration in charge that the outbreak will be managed to minimize as much death and suffering as possible. 

Trump is trying to save face with this disease as much as humanly possible to help his chances with re-election. USA has been handling this very poorly. I can’t see a situation where the country escapes unscathed from this.

[downzy]

The guy on the right confirmed that he interacted with a patron at CPAC who tested positive for COVID-19. 

This photo was taken after the interaction with the infected patron.

This is why I think the effort of containment is pointless at this point. 

[SoulMonster]

22 hours ago, SoulMonster said:

Btw, the number of new cases in China today is 146. It was 143 yesterday. So still no sign of it increasing again. That being said, if Chinese government has slowed than the epidemic spread to many regions of China, it could be that the number of infected would rise dramatically again as the disease got foothold in other provinces in China. It wouldn't be a new outbreak as we discussed, but just the disease moving to new regions resulting in an upswing in new cases. Similarly to how we are now starting to see an upswing in total cases world-wide due to the disease having spread to other countries.

Today the number of new cases in China is 102.

And here is the current situation. The red dots represent confirmed cases, which is a function of how much resources each country put into testing. Some countries test lots of people and not only those that display relevant symptoms, other countries only test those they already except of having the disease