Russia Invades Ukraine

[Basic_GnR_Fan]

10 hours ago, downzy said:

What I don’t understand is this notion that NATO expansion into Ukraine was real.  Other than the gesture 13 years ago that has largely gone unanswered at best or disavowed by some of the key states in Europe, what serious steps since then has the US or the West taken to bring Ukraine under the NATO umbrella?  

Other than Montenegro in 2017 and North Macedonia in 2020, there hasn’t been any real expansion of NATO in over 13 years. 

I don’t argue that NATO expansion hasn’t flustered or bothered Moscow, but it simply doesn’t track in comparison to Russia’s reactions to neighbouring nations embracing democracy and/or rebuffing Russian dominance.

There is no previous example of Russia using force as a result of impending NATO expansion (or because of NATO expansion). There is, however, multiple examples of Russia lashing out at neighbouring states when they have sought their independence or voiced their opposition to Russian subjugation, usually through democratic means.

We can keep referring to the old geopolitical thinkers to support this theory and blame the US or Europe for what’s happening in Ukraine, or we can take a good faith assessment of the pattern of behaviour Russia has exhibited for the past twenty years.

And even if we want to conclude that NATO expansion is the key reason why Russia has become more hostile and aggressive, it still in no way justifies Russia’s actions or shifts the blame to the West.  There is still zero need for Russia’s actions.  

You're leaving out the EuroMaidan in 2014, which was a year before Mearsheimer gave his famous talk warning of exactly what we're dealing with now and was essentially saying "Ukraine is being led down the primrose path, and is going to get wrecked if no negotiations with Russia occur." So he was right in his predictions about this, and he was right about China becoming a military power and eventual threat to the US empire (he was warning about this in the 90's when everyone else was still drunk on the end of the cold war and the end of history).

So Mearsheimer's thinking has predicted the two biggest geopolitical events of the current day, well 3, if you count all the warnings about how terribly the middle east interventions would go. The proof is in the pudding, either an analyst is proven right over time, or they're proven wrong, and Mearsheimer has been proven right. 

Edited March 3, 2022 by Basic_GnR_Fan

[downzy]

1 hour ago, Basic_GnR_Fan said:

You're leaving out the EuroMaidan in 2014, which was a year before Mearsheimer gave his famous talk warning of exactly what we're dealing with now and was essentially saying "Ukraine is being led down the primrose path, and is going to get wrecked if no negotiations with Russia occur."

So Ukraine's actions in 2014 were at the behest or urging of Europe and North America?  The will to rid itself of Russian interference was solely a western-devised plot promoted and pushed by the EU and the U.S.?  That what happened in 2014 was the result of Ukraine being "led" by western powers and not from domestic forces within Ukraine?

This is where Measheimer's argument feels far to U.S. - EU focused.  He seems to want to discount the interest of the Ukrainian people and suppose that their interests to integrate with the larger continent is nothing more than the whims of misguided foreign policy coming from the EU and the U.S.

1 hour ago, Basic_GnR_Fan said:

So he was right in his predictions about this

He also said that Russia wouldn't invade because the costs would be so high.

So what was he right about?  That Ukraine's move away from Russian interference would provoke Russian military aggression or that Russia wouldn't invade because the costs would be too high?

1 hour ago, Basic_GnR_Fan said:

he was right about China becoming a military power and eventual threat to the US empire (he was warning about this in the 90's when everyone else was still drunk on the end of the cold war and the end of history)

Please.  There were a lot of scholars suggesting the same thing.  Meeasheimer gets credit for his suggestions that China would arrive where it's at sooner than others have suggested.  But he wasn't exactly an outlier in the suggestion that China would eventually supplant the US in terms of economic clout.  And China's military potency in terms of challenging the US is still far way.  

1 hour ago, Basic_GnR_Fan said:

So Mearsheimer's thinking has predicted the two biggest geopolitical events of the current day, well 3, if you count all the warnings about how terribly the middle east interventions would go. The proof is in the pudding, either an analyst is proven right over time, or they're proven wrong, and Mearsheimer has been proven right. 

Except he's contradicted himself and places the blame on the wrong forces.  Predicting the rise of China isn't something that no one else saw coming.  Blaming the current Russian invasion on the West ignores the domestic forces within Ukraine and how Russia has not responded to previous NATO expansion and how it has responded to bordering states seeking its independence from Russia.  

[Basic_GnR_Fan]

1 minute ago, downzy said:

So Ukraine's actions in 2014 were at the behest or urging of Europe and North America?  The will to rid itself of Russian interference was solely a western-devised plot promoted and pushed by the EU and the U.S.?  That what happened in 2014 was the result of Ukraine being "led" by western powers and not from domestic forces within Ukraine?

This is where Measheimer's argument feels far to U.S. - EU focused.  He seems to want to discount the interest of the Ukrainian people and suppose that their interests to integrate with the larger continent is nothing more than the whims of misguided foreign policy coming from the EU and the U.S.

He also said that Russia wouldn't invade because the costs would be so high.

So what was he right about?  That Ukraine's move away from Russian interference would provoke Russian military aggression or that Russia wouldn't invade because the costs would be too high?

Please.  There were a lot of scholars suggesting the same thing.  Meeasheimer gets credit for his suggestions that China would arrive where it's at sooner than others have suggested.  But he wasn't exactly an outlier in the suggestion that China would eventually supplant the US in terms of economic clout.  And China's military potency in terms of challenging the US is still far way.  

Except he's contradicted himself and places the blame on the wrong forces.  Predicting the rise of China isn't something that no one else saw coming.  Blaming the current Russian invasion on the West ignores the domestic forces within Ukraine and how Russia has not responded to previous NATO expansion and how it has responded to bordering states seeking its independence from Russia.  

He came out and said the Ukraine was going to get wrecked, how is that saying an invasion wouldn't happen? This is his most famous statement on the matter.

What solutions did you or other analysts posit to have avoided this current situation? Mearsheimer posited one, an independent Ukraine and renounces aspirations to the EU and NATO. The only thing I'm hearing from your side of the argument is Ukrainians ought to fight to the death, I'm seeing it all over twitter, it's insane. Ukraine is in the process of getting wrecked, just as Mearsheimer predicted.

[downzy]

28 minutes ago, Basic_GnR_Fan said:

He came out and said the Ukraine was going to get wrecked, how is that saying an invasion wouldn't happen? This is his most famous statement on the matter.

He also said two weeks ago that Russia wouldn’t invade.

28 minutes ago, Basic_GnR_Fan said:

What solutions did you or other analysts posit to have avoided this current situation? Mearsheimer posited one, an independent Ukraine and renounces aspirations to the EU and NATO

But that’s not really up to EU and NATO. It ignores what the people of Ukraine have been asking for.   In essence the only solution would have been for the West to tell Ukraine that it will ignore and rebuff any effort by Ukraine to free itself from Russia’s influence. That was never going to happen.  There was never any real invitation to join the EU or NATO prior to Russia’s invasion.

28 minutes ago, Basic_GnR_Fan said:

The only thing I'm hearing from your side of the argument is Ukrainians ought to fight to the death, I'm seeing it all over twitter, it's insane. Ukraine is in the process of getting wrecked, just as Mearsheimer predicted.

Some people prefer to die on their feet than to live on their backs.  It’s not our place to tell the people of Ukraine how to respond to outright aggression. Considering you live in a country that embraces a “live free or die” motto (an actual state motto), I would think you would be a bit more understanding of Ukraine’s actions the last ten years and their response the last week. 

[Basic_GnR_Fan]

1 minute ago, downzy said:

He also said two weeks ago that Russia wouldn’t invade.

But that’s not really up to EU and NATO. It ignores what the people of Ukraine have been asking for.   In essence the only solution would have been for the West to tell Ukraine that it will ignore and rebuff any effort by Ukraine to free itself from Russia’s influence. That was never going to happen.  There was never any real invitation to join the EU or NATO prior to Russia’s invasion.

Some people prefer to die on their feet than to live on their backs.  It’s not our place to tell the people of Ukraine how to respond to outright aggression. Considering you live in a country where that embraces a “live free or die” motto (an actual state motto), I would think you would be a bit more understanding of Ukraine’s actions the last ten years and their response the last week. 

Again, I'm not seeing any actual solutions proposed other than asking untrained Ukrainians to somehow successfully fight a guerilla war.

I know my history, people don't always fight. At the end of WWII, what was left of the Polish resistance (non Communist stooge side) wanted to take on the Soviet Union. Churchill said after talking to their leader he felt he was in an insane asylum and if they wanted to do that they'd be doing it alone. They had some really hard years under communism but eventually threw them out by means other than war. If they took on the Soviet Union alone the entire country would have been slaughtered and replaced.

[downzy]

14 minutes ago, Basic_GnR_Fan said:

Again, I'm not seeing any actual solutions proposed other than asking untrained Ukrainians to somehow successfully fight a guerilla war.

 

Nobody is asking them that.

If Ukraine had decided to capitulate from the moment Russian troops crossed the border I think most would have understood it.  You can’t really judge until you yourself are in that same position. Do you want to stand and fight at enormous costs or do you want to accept foreign occupation and/or having your sovereignty and society dictated by a foreign power. 

The Ukrainians chose to fight.  So the West is helping the best it can without provoking a larger conflict.

14 minutes ago, Basic_GnR_Fan said:

I know my history, people don't always fight. At the end of WWII, what was left of the Polish resistance (non Communist stooge side) wanted to take on the Soviet Union. Churchill said after talking to their leader he felt he was in an insane asylum and if they wanted to do that they'd be doing it alone. They had some really hard years under communism but eventually threw them out by means other than war

You mean almost fifty years later?

14 minutes ago, Basic_GnR_Fan said:

If they took on the Soviet Union alone the entire country would have been slaughtered and replaced.

Imagine a much more powerful China tried to do the same to the US. Do you think most Americans would sit around and say, “let’s game this out long term.”

Again, no one is forcing Ukraine to do anything other than Russia. The US offered to fly Zelensky out of the country that likely would have resulted in Ukraine giving up. Instead he stayed and told the US and other European nations to send him ammunitions, not a ride.  

[dontdamnmeuyi2015]

Every day it gets worse and worse. I don't see how the Ukraine can survive this war? Most of the people have gone to other countries. If I see one more child's face I will lose it. It saddens me and makes me so pissed that these people's lives are so fucked up by Putin the terrible. Can't anyone stop this short of WWIII? I will l never understand this whole war.

The Ukraine President is one brave man, but I'm afraid it Russia takes their capital he won't survive and the soldiers will make an example of him and that would be just horrible.

Whole cities are totally destroyed.  Life for the People of Ukraine will never be the same nor will the rest of the world.

Putin has to be stopped. I don't know how short of assassination which for some stupid reason no one can do.

all I can say is the people of Ukraine both soldiers and regular citizens are very brave and by some miracle I hope they defeat Russia. But the loss of life is just too sad to think about.

21 minutes ago, downzy said:

Nobody is asking them that.

If Ukraine had decided to capitulate from the moment Russian troops crossed the border I think most would have understood it.  You can’t really judge until you yourself are in that same position. Do you want to stand and fight at enormous costs or do you want to accept foreign occupation and/or having your sovereignty and society dictated by a foreign power. 

The Ukrainians chose to fight.  So the West is helping the best it can without provoking a larger conflict.

You mean almost fifty years later?

Imagine a much more powerful China tried to do the same to the US. Do you think most Americans would sit around and say, “let’s game this out long term.”

Again, no one is forcing Ukraine to do anything other than Russia. The US offered to fly Zelensky out of the country that likely would have resulted in Ukraine giving up. Instead he stayed and told the US and other European nations to send him ammunitions, not a ride.  

Like I said one brave man. I hope he survives to get his country back to the way it was and tells Putin to go to HELL>

[Gibson87]

10 minutes ago, dontdamnmeuyi2015 said:

Every day it gets worse and worse. I don't see how the Ukraine can survive this war? Most of the people have gone to other countries. If I see one more child's face I will lose it. It saddens me and makes me so pissed that these people's lives are so fucked up by Putin the terrible. Can't anyone stop this short of WWIII?

That's exactly what the West is trying to do. They're funding, arming and training the Ukrainian army, imposing devastating sanctions on Russia and building up troops on NATO borders. It's all on Russia, we've given them every opportunity to back down and they continue to escalate. There's really nothing more we can do that wouldn't result in WWIII. 

[AtariLegend]

Fuck Putin and Lukashenko.

[-Jaro-]

55 minutes ago, dontdamnmeuyi2015 said:

Every day it gets worse and worse. I don't see how the Ukraine can survive this war? Most of the people have gone to other countries. If I see one more child's face I will lose it. It saddens me and makes me so pissed that these people's lives are so fucked up by Putin the terrible. Can't anyone stop this short of WWIII? I will l never understand this whole war.

The Ukraine President is one brave man, but I'm afraid it Russia takes their capital he won't survive and the soldiers will make an example of him and that would be just horrible.

Whole cities are totally destroyed.  Life for the People of Ukraine will never be the same nor will the rest of the world.

Putin has to be stopped. I don't know how short of assassination which for some stupid reason no one can do.

all I can say is the people of Ukraine both soldiers and regular citizens are very brave and by some miracle I hope they defeat Russia. But the loss of life is just too sad to think about.

Like I said one brave man. I hope he survives to get his country back to the way it was and tells Putin to go to HELL>

1 million people left Ukraine. Not most of them - there are 40 million of them. Also, unlike in many other warzones, many women took weapon and stayed for help. Also, Russian troops aren't winning much, they only lunch missles on resident areas (like all good peacekeepers)...

Also, after 50yrs under Russian boot, many Polish probably wishd they went "fight or die" way in 1945. (As soon as regime weakened almost all nations escaped from it and from artifitial and by force assembled federations of nations... some had luck (and common sense) to break those  "alliances" peacefuly.

I enjoy when people from western countries talk about life in socialism and under communist boot. 

[Basic_GnR_Fan]

2 hours ago, downzy said:

Nobody is asking them that.

If Ukraine had decided to capitulate from the moment Russian troops crossed the border I think most would have understood it.  You can’t really judge until you yourself are in that same position. Do you want to stand and fight at enormous costs or do you want to accept foreign occupation and/or having your sovereignty and society dictated by a foreign power. 

The Ukrainians chose to fight.  So the West is helping the best it can without provoking a larger conflict.

 

Yes, they should have started negotiating right from the beginning. My personal opinion is that the west should have said from the beginning we are not supplying you with arms, you are on your own and that might have caused them to just negotiate right away. By arming them, this just encourages them to fight on in a losing conflict. The longer this goes on the more Ukrainians will die and the more Putin is going to ask for because his own citizens are whipped up too (his approval rating apparently went up 11 points since the invasion).

Quote

You mean almost fifty years later?

Are you going to tell me with a straight face a weakened Poland should have taken on the USSR alone in 1945? That would have been national suicide and Churchill rightly talked them off the ledge.

Quote

Imagine a much more powerful China tried to do the same to the US. Do you think most Americans would sit around and say, “let’s game this out long term.”

If China was as much more powerful as Russia is to Ukraine, yeah eventually Americans would realize this was a hopeless cause and negotiate something. More likely though (let's be honest), this country is so divided China wouldn't even have to invade, they would just arm one side to kill the other and then come in and take the rest.

[PatrickS77]

2 minutes ago, Basic_GnR_Fan said:

If China was as much more powerful as Russia is to Ukraine, yeah eventually Americans would realize this was a hopeless cause and negotiate something.

That is not negotiating. That is extortion.  This is the small kid giving in to the much taller schoolyard bully.

[dontdamnmeuyi2015]

4 minutes ago, PatrickS77 said:

That is not negotiating. That is extortion.  This is the small kid giving in to the much taller schoolyard bully.

2 hours ago, downzy said:

Nobody is asking them that.

If Ukraine had decided to capitulate from the moment Russian troops crossed the border I think most would have understood it.  You can’t really judge until you yourself are in that same position. Do you want to stand and fight at enormous costs or do you want to accept foreign occupation and/or having your sovereignty and society dictated by a foreign power. 

The Ukrainians chose to fight.  So the West is helping the best it can without provoking a larger conflict.

You mean almost fifty years later?

Imagine a much more powerful China tried to do the same to the US. Do you think most Americans would sit around and say, “let’s game this out long term.”

Again, no one is forcing Ukraine to do anything other than Russia. The US offered to fly Zelensky out of the country that likely would have resulted in Ukraine giving up. Instead he stayed and told the US and other European nations to send him ammunitions, not a ride.  

Like I said one brave man. I hope he survives to get his country back to the way it was and tells Putin to go to HELL>

[dontdamnmeuyi2015]

I'm really getting annoyed now reading all the things that CNN puts on the bottom of their screen while showing Ukraine.

"NATO says Russia will step up their attacks in days in attacking the major cities" So what the fuck are you going to do about it?

I saw on another news channel that Russia has closed off the port and roads from Poland (not sure if this is true) so no supplies can get to the people who are still in the Ukraine. Showing burned out houses and schools and yet nothing can be done?

Before the end of this war, Ukraine will be nothing but a burned out country and what exactly does Putin think he will rule then?

Seeing the faces of mothers with their little children is making me very angry now because they have lost everything and  possibly their husbands too and still I feel not enough is being done to help Ukraine. Forget the bullshit they aren't part of Nato, they are a free nation being attacked.  I feel this is all just pushing aside things that the world should really be doing.

Putin knows he has the power right now, so he won't stop bombing and attacking Ukraine. If the nations and NATO won't or can't do anyting then they should shut the fuck up. Just get weapons to Ukraine and hope they can put a stop to Russia. I doubt this will happen and if anyone thinks Putin hasn't thought this out they are morons. This guy might be crazy, but he's smart about what he's doing.

I f Putin decides to use the nuclear weapons on Ukraine will anyone do anything to stop him then? I guess not since the world is just saying how they can't get physically involved because it might cause WWIII. Tell it to the people of Ukraine because for them it has already come.

War sucks and I don't understand all these so called rules when Putin isn't following any of them.

And Nato and every other country needs to shut the fuck up when talking about what will happen next to Ukraine and maybe try to do something really major to help them.

God bless those people in other nations who are taking those Ukraine people into their homes because that's one major thing a regular person is doing. I'd say more than the leaders of the free world are doing.

Talk is cheap. Ukraine needs actions not words.

[Basic_GnR_Fan]

8 minutes ago, PatrickS77 said:

That is not negotiating. That is extortion.  This is the small kid giving in to the much taller schoolyard bully.

Yes it is, and that is the way world works and always has worked. The strong bully around the weak. I'm not saying it's right, I'm just saying how it is. Here are the options on the table:

1, The Ukraine can fight on and hope they somehow exact enough losses on Russia to make them quit, but at enormous costs to themselves as the Russians consider Ukraine an important part of their sphere of influence.

2, The west can get directly involved, but then now it's a shooting war directly between the west and Russia. Better hope no one gets an itchy trigger finger on those nukes. And what does China do in that chaos? Take Taiwan and dare the west to do something about it when they are already in a shooting war with Russia?

3, Ukraine can try and negotiate the best deal they can get from Russia, which may mean loss of just the Eastern republics and a promise of neutrality, if they are lucky.

I personally prefer number 3.

[dontdamnmeuyi2015]

12 minutes ago, PatrickS77 said:

That is not negotiating. That is extortion.  This is the small kid giving in to the much taller schoolyard bully.

Please I think at this stage of the world both Russia and China are more powerful than the US. both those countries don't give a damn about human life as the US does, so that's out fatal flaw.  the US owes so much debt to China we are scared to make a move against them.

NATO wants to charge Putin for inhuman actions. yeah, so what exaclty is anyone going to do to him? Nothing. All this accusing does nothing to help Ukraine.

China, Iran and North Korea and most countries in Africa have been inhuman to their people for years and no one does a fucking thing to stop it.

It seems to me the bad guys are winning these days.

[dontdamnmeuyi2015]

2 minutes ago, Basic_GnR_Fan said:

Yes it is, and that is the way world works and always has worked. The strong bully around the weak. I'm not saying it's right, I'm just saying how it is. Here are the options on the table:

1, The Ukraine can fight on and hope they somehow exact enough losses on Russia to make them quit, but at enormous costs to themselves as the Russians consider Ukraine an important part of their sphere of influence.

2, The west can get directly involved, but then now it's a shooting war directly between the west and Russia. Better hope no one gets an itchy trigger finger on those nukes. And what does China do in that chaos? Take Taiwan and dare the west to do something about it when they are already in a shooting war with Russia?

3, Ukraine can try and negotiate the best deal they can get from Russia, which may mean loss of just the Eastern republics and a promise of neutrality, if they are lucky.

I personally prefer number 3.

Yeah, like I said Ukraine will be fucked no matter what while the West talks about how horrible Putin is and China is and watch and wait becuse they know putin has the man power and the weapons and he won't give up until Ukraine is his. Next up will be the other nations that once belonged to the USSSR. It's what Putin wants and after seeing how the US and Europe just talk and do nothing, he'll get what he wants.

China will get Taiwan too. Short of starting WWIII nothing will get done to save Ukraine. This is bullshit.

[Basic_GnR_Fan]

7 minutes ago, dontdamnmeuyi2015 said:

Yeah, like I said Ukraine will be fucked no matter what while the West talks about how horrible Putin is and China is and watch and wait becuse they know putin has the man power and the weapons and he won't give up until Ukraine is his. Next up will be the other nations that once belonged to the USSSR. It's what Putin wants and after seeing how the US and Europe just talk and do nothing, he'll get what he wants.

China will get Taiwan too. Short of starting WWIII nothing will get done to save Ukraine. This is bullshit.

Ukraine is fucked, but I doubt Putin will be going after countries actually in NATO right now as that would actually trigger an article 5 response.

China will take Taiwan though. Probably not soon, as time is on their side, but eventually. They consider Taiwan as important to them as Russia considered the Ukraine to them.

[downzy]

25 minutes ago, Basic_GnR_Fan said:

Ukraine is fucked, but I doubt Putin will be going after countries actually in NATO right now as that would actually trigger an article 5 response

That and I think short of nuclear war Putin has learned that he wouldn’t have much of a chance considering how much trouble his military is having in Ukraine. 

[downzy]

43 minutes ago, Basic_GnR_Fan said:

China will take Taiwan though. Probably not soon, as time is on their side, but eventually. They consider Taiwan as important to them as Russia considered the Ukraine to them.

Objectively China has a better or more justified claim with Taiwan than Russia with Ukraine. Taiwan has little or no formal diplomatic relations with anyone. Every major and most minor countries recognize or acknowledge that Taiwan belongs to China.  The issue China has it doesn’t have the military might at present to take on Taiwan and likely Japan and the US. Maybe five to ten years, but it’s probably in their interest to wait.

I think Biden knows this eventuality and its why he’s pushing to move production of semiconductors to the US so there’s less reliance on Taiwan. 

[downzy]

 

[Basic_GnR_Fan]

6 minutes ago, downzy said:

 

That's why it's just not worth it to risk WWIII over Ukraine (and cooler heads are prevailing in the west right now). The likelihood of Putin have some grand ambitions of conquering all of Europe are nill. This isn't 1945.

[downzy]

9 minutes ago, Basic_GnR_Fan said:

That's why it's just not worth it to risk WWIII over Ukraine (and cooler heads are prevailing in the west right now). The likelihood of Putin have some grand ambitions of conquering all of Europe are nill. This isn't 1945.

Agreed.  I’m kind of shocked how overt NATO countries (though not NATO itself) is supplying munitions to Ukraine.  For me that’s pushing it a bit.  If Russia had its shit together in Ukraine than perhaps it would be flexing a bit more (hence the reliance on the empty threat of a nuclear attack) in response to such overt arms supplying by other European countries. 

[arnold layne]

So now that Russian stocks are worth pennies to the dollar, could in theory, once sanctions are lifted, a bunch of rich Americans and Chinese take up most of those shares?

It seems to be in the long game, Russia sold its soul for Ukraine but in the end outside influences prevail. 

[Dazey]

Remember when Trump was impeached for trying to extort the “I need ammo not a ride” guy? 😂