Russia Invades Ukraine

[zombux]

4 hours ago, Blackstar said:

Meanwhile, I don't know about other EU countries, but here in Greece prices of goods - including even toilet paper - have been going up and up, following the rise in the price of fuel. If this continues, people won't afford basic goods.

I guess stockpiling toilet paper would make more sense now than in the beginning of Covid.

life hack: soon russian rubles will be worth less than a piece of toilet paper. let that sink for a while.

[dontdamnmeuyi2015]

Seeing every day people stand up against Russia trying to keep them away from other cities, is amazing. It is also heartbreaking that the US and Nato can't do more for these people. Running from their homeland and maybe never going back home? Losing loved ones and their cities being bombed with weapons that Putin should be using. come on. Like he gives a shit.

It seems all everyone is doing is talking and I don't know about anyone else but it's making me pissed off.

I know we can't send in fighter jets to bomb Russian tanks because then Putin would send in their fighter jets and we would provoke a real war, but it seems to me like Putin doesn't give a shit about human life of anything but showing the power he has.

He's been told not to do this or that and he just keeps on doing it. WTF? Is there nothing anyone can do to stop him? Now they are having fake peace talks and nothing is changing.  If armies don't go into Ukraine eventually this country will be lost to Russia and Putin will move on to other countries he feels should be part of the USSR.

I feel so terrible for every person I see who has the courage to fight for their country and feel like it's useless. Look at the devastation Russia has done to Ukraine. If Russia gives us, which I doubt, what will the people be going back to?  I feel all the words in the world won't help Ukraine stay free. Sooner or later, Russia will have that whole country. I am worried if they get the President of Ukraine he'sl doomed yet he continues to fight. These people are freaking amazing. I hope for a miracle for them.

[dontdamnmeuyi2015]

11 hours ago, Basic_GnR_Fan said:

I guess the upside here, if there is one, is that the EU is going to get a few million refugees to help out with the aging workforce, and they'll probably assimilate quite well.

It still sucks to leave your country and your life with just a handful of things. I know I couldn't do it. It's just not right that their lives have been fucked up. 

The whole world knew what Putin was going to do and yet couldn't stop him. Putin won't back down because whatever the US and it's allies do to Russia only effects the Russian people. Putin will be okay. Now we have to wait and see if/when he wants to talk peace and a cease fire. It seems to me Putin is holding all the cards here and if he succeeds in getting Ukraine he will move on to other countries who were once part of the USSR.  Will anyone be able to stop him then?

And sooner or later, Chi will invade Taiwan and win them too.

Short of another world war I think the evil leaders are holding all the cards here.

[Basic_GnR_Fan]

So Kherson has fallen, Mariupol is under siege, and strategic targets in Kharkov and Kiev are being hit. At some point Zelensky will have to admit he has a losing hand and negotiate.

BTW, what happened to that "Marshall Zhukov" poster? That poor guy has to be twisted in knots over all of this.

[downzy]

EU drawing up plans to cut off Russian oil:

https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/leak-eu-drafts-plan-to-ditch-russian-gas/

[downzy]

5 hours ago, Basic_GnR_Fan said:

I'm a fan of Mearsheimer

Not surprising.

More surprising is how Mearsheimer hasn't somehow blamed the situation in Ukraine on his usual target: Israel.  I'm sure he's still connecting the dots.

5 hours ago, Basic_GnR_Fan said:

That's why he's saying it would be wise for the US to limit Russian or Chinese attempts to be regional hegemons

I thought his argument was that efforts made by the US are the cause for Russian's incursion into Ukraine; that this is all the U.S.'s fault.  

5 hours ago, Basic_GnR_Fan said:

In his analysis, he sees China as the only potential long term rival for the US on the global stage so he says preference should be given to limiting them

Does the EU or the rest of Europe have a say?  This is a problem with Mearsheimer, he seems a little to US centric in his analysis, ignoring the fact that Europe has largely been leading the response to the situation in Ukraine.

And this is where the rubber doesn't meet the road for me with respect to Mearsheimer.  If we look back at Russia's relationships to its immediate neighbours, its record on when it will respond with force has little to do with NATO expansion.  There is a greater relationship between Russia's aggression and separatist or independent movements within neighbouring countries.  Former President George W. Bush first broached NATO membership for Ukraine back in 2008 and the response by Russia at the time was to grumble but they didn't really do anything at the time (perhaps mostly due to the fact that Germany, France, and I believe Italy weren't in favour of Ukraine's inclusion).  Contrast that to Russia's responses to separatist actions in former Soviet states.  It was only after Ukraine tossed its Moscow aligned President and opted for Poroshenko and then Zelensky that Russia's aggression towards Ukraine grew tremendously. 

While China is a true competitor to the US, it doesn't mean that Russia's influence in Europe is not a long-term threat to US interests.  A European continent that is dictated by a Kleptocracy in Russia is not something to shy away from.

5 hours ago, Basic_GnR_Fan said:

I don't think he would have underplayed Ukrainian resistance because he accounts for nationalism being an important factor, and the nationalism of the Ukrainians (non Russian speaking) is very strong against Russia.

Perhaps I misread his interviews, but I could have sworn prior to the invasion that he was convinced Russia wouldn't face the kind of resistance they have faced up to this point.

5 hours ago, Basic_GnR_Fan said:

I can see how a realist position may come across to someone as 'being an apologist' for another power

And here I find another contradiction in his argument.  If it's contrary to the realism-school of international politics for the US and Europe to support Ukraine's right to self determination as a free and sovereign nation, then why would it be justified for Russia to respond to such political incursion to respond with military force?  It's as though Mearsheimer is saying that if the West does X, Russia will do Y.  But Y doesn't really hold up to scrutiny from a realist perspective.  In short order Putin's actions have ensured that every neighbouring state will seek a defensive alliance with either NATO or with European counterparts.  The U.S. and the West can't be faulted because they didn't follow the tenets of realism if Russia is also off-script.  Even if you want to except the basic premise (that Western support of a free and increasingly EU-connected Ukraine is heedlessly poking the bear), the response is akin to blaming the battered wife for having burned the toast.  

5 hours ago, Basic_GnR_Fan said:

what if China was threatening to add Canada or Mexico into on their defense pacts/sphere of influence? The US would go ballistic and do whatever they could to throw China out of it's sphere of influence

First, the US has faced similar situations in its backyard without resorting to full out invasion.  Cuba was allowed to remain within the Soviet's orbit (with some limits) without a direct military response from the US military.  Both Brazil and Venezuela now have (arguably) stronger ties to China than they do with the US.   I understand the frustration from Russia with respect to Ukraine moving away from their own orbit, but the notion that it excuses or explains a full-out military invasion is without parallel here.

 

[grouse]

1 hour ago, Basic_GnR_Fan said:

So Kherson has fallen, Mariupol is under siege, and strategic targets in Kharkov and Kiev are being hit. At some point Zelensky will have to admit he has a losing hand and negotiate.

BTW, what happened to that "Marshall Zhukov" poster? That poor guy has to be twisted in knots over all of this.

Ha this thought had entered my mind  as well earlier during the day, believe the poster's name was gregory zhukov. Haven't seen him around for a while. 

[Basic_GnR_Fan]

My thing with foreign policy guys is, how accurate are your predictions or system of thinking to real life. So if anyone is interested in Mearsheimer's actual opinions and has the time, here are two great intro videos. The first talks about his realist approach (within a talk about China), and the 2nd is the one he did on the Ukraine in 2015 where he basically predicted what is happening now and gave his own solution (Ukraine renounces NATO, is declared independent of both spheres but is still built up economically).

 

[Basic_GnR_Fan]

And it wasn't just Mearsheimer warning against US policy in regards to Russia and Nato expansion. Here is a good thread which goes through predictions from George Kennan, Kissinger, Mearsheimer, Jack Matlock (former US ambassador to Soviet Union), William Perry (Clinton Defense Secretary), Chomsky, Stephen Cohen, Vladimir Pozner, Jeffrey Sachs.

 

Edited March 3, 2022 by Basic_GnR_Fan

[downzy]

2 hours ago, Basic_GnR_Fan said:

And it wasn't just Mearsheimer warning against US policy in regards to Russia and Nato expansion. Here is a good thread which goes through predictions from George Kennan, Kissinger, Mearsheimer, Jack Matlock (former US ambassador to Soviet Union), William Perry (Clinton Defense Secretary), Chomsky, Stephen Cohen, Vladimir Pozner, Jeffrey Sachs.

 

What I don’t understand is this notion that NATO expansion into Ukraine was real.  Other than the gesture 13 years ago that has largely gone unanswered at best or disavowed by some of the key states in Europe, what serious steps since then has the US or the West taken to bring Ukraine under the NATO umbrella?  

Other than Montenegro in 2017 and North Macedonia in 2020, there hasn’t been any real expansion of NATO in over 13 years. 

I don’t argue that NATO expansion hasn’t flustered or bothered Moscow, but it simply doesn’t track in comparison to Russia’s reactions to neighbouring nations embracing democracy and/or rebuffing Russian dominance.

There is no previous example of Russia using force as a result of impending NATO expansion (or because of NATO expansion). There is, however, multiple examples of Russia lashing out at neighbouring states when they have sought their independence or voiced their opposition to Russian subjugation, usually through democratic means.

We can keep referring to the old geopolitical thinkers to support this theory and blame the US or Europe for what’s happening in Ukraine, or we can take a good faith assessment of the pattern of behaviour Russia has exhibited for the past twenty years.

And even if we want to conclude that NATO expansion is the key reason why Russia has become more hostile and aggressive, it still in no way justifies Russia’s actions or shifts the blame to the West.  There is still zero need for Russia’s actions.  

[Swedish]

An Estonian cargo ship just sunk outside of Odessa, I wonder if this will cause NATO to respond in any way...

[-Jaro-]

 

 

[downzy]

8 minutes ago, youngswedishvinyl said:

An Estonian cargo ship just sunk outside of Odessa, I wonder if this will cause NATO to respond in any way...

No. Very little chance.

NATO won’t respond directly unless Russia cross the border of a NATO member country. 

[alfierose]

Just horrifying. 

 

[downzy]

This:

Applebaum is correct and refutes directly the notion that this is the West’s responsibility. 

The 2014 rejection of Russia and the overthrow of Ukrainian leaders aligned with Russia set the stage for what is happening today.  Putin views such actions on Russia’s doorstep as a threat to his own hold on the country. Even without the prospect of a NATO membership dangling over Ukraine, Russia was almost certainly going to respond at some point should Ukraine continue to move towards a democratic and rules based system of governance. Failure to counter such trends in Ukraine is a threat to Putin’s hold on Russia. 

[Swedish]

7 minutes ago, downzy said:

No. Very little chance.

NATO won’t respond directly unless Russia cross the border of a NATO member country. 

I didn't specifically mean respond with military action but the sinking of a peaceful vessel from a NATO country should at least have some impact IMO, weather it was sunk by a sea mine or not. 

[downzy]

1 minute ago, alfierose said:

Just horrifying. 

 

Who knows. Maybe. The information campaign has been so ferocious on both sides.  Two reasons to believe it are 1) would serve notice to Putin’s critics at home and in satellite states like Ukraine and Belarus that Putin is not to be fucked with; fall in line; 2) international isolation of Russia is now giving it cover to act its worst, since outside of a direct military response (which won’t happen unless Russia crosses over into a NATO country), the West has done all that its willing to do at that point.

A pretty frightening possibility though.

Glad I got to tour St. Petersburg a few years ago because I don’t ever see myself visiting Russia again unless the country changes dramatically. 

[zombux]

2 minutes ago, youngswedishvinyl said:

I didn't specifically mean respond with military action but the sinking of a peaceful vessel from a NATO country should at least have some impact IMO, weather it was sunk by a sea mine or not. 

there's still a myriad of possibilities for further crippling their economy

[downzy]

2 minutes ago, youngswedishvinyl said:

I didn't specifically mean respond with military action but the sinking of a peaceful vessel from a NATO country should at least have some impact IMO, weather it was sunk by a sea mine or not. 

I don’t see what NATO can do that other western governments have already done. But who knows where this goes. 

1 minute ago, zombux said:

there's still a myriad of possibilities for further crippling their economy

Short of sanctions on Russian energy and agriculture, there isn’t much left. 

[Swedish]

2 minutes ago, downzy said:

Glad I got to tour St. Petersburg a few years ago because I don’t ever see myself visiting Russia again unless the country changes dramatically. 

This is something I'm sad to not have done before all this. Moscow and St. Petersburg have been on my list of places to visit for a while, since they are both cities with incredibly fascinating histories, but I can't see myself ever going there now unless Russia does a 180 politically in the coming years.

[downzy]

3 minutes ago, youngswedishvinyl said:

This is something I'm sad to not have done before all this. Moscow and St. Petersburg have been on my list of places to visit for a while, since they are both cities with incredibly fascinating histories, but I can't see myself ever going there now unless Russia does a 180 politically in the coming years.

I only spent two days in St. Peterburg and I was limited to what I could see and experience due to the nature of my visitors visa (arrived via cruise, required to stay with tour operator at all times). 

The palaces and museums were phenomenal.  That said, I found the communist architecture far more interesting and unique.  It would have been nice to have spend some time soaking up some of the culture, but again, unfortunately, I was very limited to what I could do during my time there.  Non-guided tourist visas are expensive so if you're going to go it's only worth it if you plan on spending a couple of weeks.  

But alas, it doesn't look like there will be any opportunities to visit Russia any time soon.  My feelings are similar to China.  I won't go unless something dramatic changes with respect to its handling of human rights.  Glad I got to see Hong Kong before China took it back from the British.  

[EvanG]

 

16 minutes ago, youngswedishvinyl said:

This is something I'm sad to not have done before all this. Moscow and St. Petersburg have been on my list of places to visit for a while, since they are both cities with incredibly fascinating histories, but I can't see myself ever going there now unless Russia does a 180 politically in the coming years.

St. Petersburg is considered more a European city architecture and culture wise. 
I could still see myself going there, regardless of what I think about the country's politics.

[PatrickS77]

15 minutes ago, youngswedishvinyl said:

This is something I'm sad to not have done before all this. Moscow and St. Petersburg have been on my list of places to visit for a while, since they are both cities with incredibly fascinating histories, but I can't see myself ever going there now unless Russia does a 180 politically in the coming years.

Yeah. Moscow is an amazing city. More western and international than people would think. Went there to see Twisted Sister in 2011 and had a great time, despite having to jump through a couple of hoops getting that damn visa (should have went for Mastercard ), exploring the city by foot for almost a week. Glad I went then, because with all the other political shit going on, I'm not going back there. Same with Istanbul. Great city, but politics and what it stands for sucks.

[alfierose]

13 minutes ago, downzy said:

I only spent two days in St. Peterburg and I was limited to what I could see and experience due to the nature of my visitors visa (arrived via cruise, required to stay with tour operator at all times). 

The palaces and museums were phenomenal.  That said, I found the communist architecture far more interesting and unique.  It would have been nice to have spend some time soaking up some of the culture, but again, unfortunately, I was very limited to what I could do during my time there.  Non-guided tourist visas are expensive so if you're going to go it's only worth it if you plan on spending a couple of weeks.  

But alas, it doesn't look like there will be any opportunities to visit Russia any time soon.  My feelings are similar to China.  I won't go unless something dramatic changes with respect to its handling of human rights.  Glad I got to see Hong Kong before China took it back from the British.  

I went to Estonia 20 odd years ago just as it opened up for tourism. Much of the soviet era architecture and culture was still there to see. I don't know how much will have been preserved now but it was really fascinating.

[zombux]

17 minutes ago, alfierose said:

I went to Estonia 20 odd years ago just as it opened up for tourism. Much of the soviet era architecture and culture was still there to see. I don't know how much will have been preserved now but it was really fascinating.

I have visited Estonia in 2019 and it was absolutely great. my main impression from that trip was - they have been occupied pretty much for the whole history, with only a few years between WW1 and WW2, and their starting position was shit in 1991 compared to "more western" countries like East Germany, CZ, Poland or Hungary.

nowadays, they totally overtook us in everything possible. especially as humans they sound and act in a very mature way, the running joke that "Eesti cannot into Nordic" is just a joke - I completely felt like somewhere in Scandinavia, of course with some concrete residential areas from the soviet times and pretty small number of the residents.

(funny how the situation completely reversed when I moved to Latvia, sure it was terrible weather for those days but still I felt like travelling back in time into year 1975 in Moscow)