Covid-19 Thread

[Gibsonfender2323]

5 minutes ago, downzy said:

Let's keep this thread tangentially related to the topic. 

Posts that want to target a nation or people will be removed.  

You can criticize the government and not the people. This is directly relevant to thread because it shows where the outbreak started. 

Showing the evils of a regime is essential to a free press. The Chinese government spies on its citizens and makes journalists disappear. The killed the doctor that tried warning us

This started in the dog market. Again not letting people see where this virus started is dishonest. Plain and simple it shows you don't care

https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavirus-chinese-wet-market-photos-2020-1

 

This is no diffrent then showing what an oil spill or whats happening in the border. You can criticize the government without criticizing the nation

Edited March 28, 2020 by Gibsonfender2323

[downzy]

1 minute ago, Gibsonfender2323 said:

You can criticize the government and not the people. This is directly relevant to thread because it shows where the outbreak started. 

Showing the evils of a regime is essential to a free press. The Chinese government spies on its citizens make journalists disappear 

This started in the dog market. Again not letting people see where this virus started is dishonest. Plain and simple it shows you dont care

https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavirus-chinese-wet-market-photos-2020-1

I asked for evidence that China is suppressing its numbers on infections and dead from COVID-19.  

You responded that it eats dogs.  Again, that has nothing to do with the discussion.

So unless you have documentation or evidence that China is lying about its infection rate and resulting deaths, let's move on.

[Gibsonfender2323]

Just now, downzy said:

I asked for evidence that China is suppressing its numbers on infections and dead from COVID-19.  

You responded that it eats dogs.  Again, that has nothing to do with the discussion.

So unless you have documentation or evidence that China is lying about its infection rate and resulting deaths, let's move on.

 

They lied from the very beginning about this outbreak which started in a wet meat market in whuan .  They expelled all foreign American journalists

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/world/asia/china-expels-journalists.html

This is the same government  that lied about the outbreak in the first place.......l

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/23/life-after-lockdown-has-china-really-beaten-coronavirus

 

The Chinese government is an evil tyrannical regime. 

[downzy]

4 minutes ago, Gibsonfender2323 said:

 

They lied from the very beginning about this outbreak which started in a wet meat market in whuan .  They expelled all foreign American journalists

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/world/asia/china-expels-journalists.html

This is the same government  that lied about the outbreak in the first place.......l

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/23/life-after-lockdown-has-china-really-beaten-coronavirus

 

The Chinese government is an evil tyrannical regime. 

Again, I'm not here to argue that China has problems, or that it mismanaged and was less than transparent at the origins of the outbreak.  

But again, you have provided zero evidence that they are misrepresenting their numbers today.  

Also, they didn't expel all American journalists, just those from the New York Times, Washington Post, and Washington Times.  This was a response to Trump limiting the number of Chinese who could work for Chinese media outlets operating in the US. 

But again, this is a waste of everyone's time and so this will be the conclusion of this conversation unless you have specific information that relates to current totals of infections and deaths in China relating to COVID-19.  

[Gibsonfender2323]

My dad lost so many clients because of this. I lost all the hours I was supposed to work at my university for the next month. My sister might lose her job in LA.

Edited March 28, 2020 by Gibsonfender2323

[YOUCOULDBEMINE.]

Just read that 80% of our IC patients are overweight. They're gonna try to find out if that's just a coincidence or if their reaction to the virus relates to their weight.

[downzy]

18 minutes ago, UcudBmine said:

Just read that 80% of our IC patients are overweight. They're gonna try to find out if that's just a coincidence or if their reaction to the virus relates to their weight.

If weight is a factor then Florida is fucked.

[Ace Spade]

2 hours ago, downzy said:

If weight is a factor then Florida is fucked.

Unlike the rest of North America?

Or just more so?

[SoulMonster]

I didn't have time to write much on the immune system earlier, but here are some more thoughts. I see a lot of advertisements for supplements and foods that are suppose to strengthen or boost the immune system, especially now with people being anxious about covid-19. Most of this is from well-intentioned people who really want to help others out and share from their own experiences, but some from people with commercial interests in the products they are plugging.

As I stated earlier, we don't know of anything that can actually improve the immune system. It's like our sight, we don't know of any single foods or supplements that will make us see better. No secret pill that will give us sight like Legolas. We know of many things that are crucial for normal sight, but nothing that can be done to make us see better than others, to make us go beyond normality. There are lots of ways we can fuck up our sight, though, and remedies for that, but if you have normal, good eyes, then that's as good as it will get. It seems to be the same with the immune system. Unless you have fucked it up, then you can't really do anything to make it better. And as long as you have a normal, varied diet, get enough sleep, and don't stress too much, it seems like your immune system will tinker along as it should. And if it isn't working as it should, chances are that you can correct this by eating better, sleeping more, and stressing less.

So to people who worry about covid-19: if you really want to make sure you are well-prepared to fight it when you get it, try eating healthy, try getting enough sleep, and, ironically, try not to worry. Here's some medical advice for you: take a nice walk and enjoy the sun, play with your kids or dog, drink a glass of red wine with your loved ones, see a funny movie, have some fun. Sleep and eat and play and laugh and fuck. Just enjoy life and you are better off.

Vitamin supplements are really only needed for people who aren't able to keep up a varied diet, or for other reasons needs extra. For most other people such supplements will have zero effect on your body (unless you happen to take too much of certain vitamins which could be detrimental to your health). I would wager that more than 90 % of such supplements sold are not beneficial to the consumers. They are slaves of consumerism. Manipulated to think that buying magic pills will make them better.

Besides, you don't want to boost your immune system. Or, you shouldn't want to do it. Our immune system is balancing on a knife's edge between fighting intruders like viruses and pathogenic bacteria and leaving our own cells alone. If you were able to disrupt this and make your immune system more active you would risk that it would increasingly attack your own cells, and you don't want that. Let me make this very clear: YOU DON'T WANT THAT. You do not want a hyper active immune system in your body that more often fight with your own cells, because then you would have an auto-immune disorder, and I won't go into the scary details of diseases like multiple sclerosis, lupus, etc, that we can get from an immune system that is our of order.

[Lio]

If the death numbers in China are correct, does it mean white people are more likely to die from the disease? Or has the virus mutated into a far more deadly form?

What else could be an explanation? This is Europe, we have great healthcare, and China didn't start taking measures earlier than us.

I do believe China has beaten this crisis for now, but I have a hard time believing such 'few' dead after having it months. Europe has lots more after weeks.

Even if we believe China wouldn't try to make it look less bad than it is, I think a lot of dead went under the radar. They even do here, and in Italy, where some villages have many more dead than in an average year, while only a small part officially labeled corona.

Personally I have no doubt far more than 3000 died of covid in China. 

To add to this: just read an article about it. Families are now allowed to pick up the ashes from people who died of corona. In one Wuhan facility there were apparently 5000 urns waiting. Wuhan has officially a little over 2500 corona dead. It also has eight of these facilities.

Edited March 28, 2020 by Lio
Added

[StrangerInThisTown]

I have a friend in HK but I think they did things different there than the mainland. But he said they've been in lockdown for months now, whereas my country is barely 2 weeks in. I think they did take measures pretty early on after they noticed how fast it spreads, and that's the difference to, for example, Italy, who didn't take it as serious early on

[RussTCB]

Had a wonderful night this evening, but now I'm back to worrying. 

I keep going back and forth. Part of my mind maintains the thought that this will all be ok. Then the other part of my brain is worried about everything from the economy side of things to the "we're all gonna die" side of things, all the way to the biblical side of things. 

I'm a planner and a worrier, which is a shitty combo even in the regular world we all used to know. 

As recent as two weeks ago, I was able to deal with my constant worry by way of making plans. Whatever I was worrying about was always going to be ok because I had something or any other planned that I could use to take my mind off of specific worries. 

Nowadays, not only so I have an inability to plan for anything, the lack of plans leads me to worry more. When I start to worry, it a much big, deeper and wider worry then I've ever experienced in my entire life. 

Sorry for the rambling, but that's where I'm at. 

[Ace Spade]

Bro, you live in Detroit. You're the bravest member of this forum.

[action]

6 hours ago, downzy said:

No, I don't agree. 

I'm not sure what you're basing any of your suspicions on other than your own intuition. 

And if so, then you'll have to excuse me if I believe published reports.  

 

is there a point, that italy and spain have to reach, where you are going to start doubt china's numbers?

or are you clear and china is right no matter what happens in italy and spain?

[EricA]

28 minutes ago, RussTCB said:

 

As recent as two weeks ago, I was able to deal with my constant worry by way of making plans. Whatever I was worrying about was always going to be ok because I had something or any other planned that I could use to take my mind off of specific worries. 

 

Ha, i feel ya, these are the "problems" of constantly overthinkers

This may sound a bit superficial, but we have to stop overthinking everything, we can only deal with it from day to day, this is not a situation where we, or even a single individual, can change anything.  I know the worry about jobs, kids, health and how things will go on in general is justified, but too many of worries about the overall situation only makes it even more exhausting.

Edited March 28, 2020 by EricA

[SoulMonster]

1 hour ago, Lio said:

If the death numbers in China are correct, does it mean white people are more likely to die from the disease? Or has the virus mutated into a far more deadly form?

What else could be an explanation? This is Europe, we have great healthcare, and China didn't start taking measures earlier than us.

It is much too soon to say anything about how different ethnic populations may be affected by this virus. I would guess there are little differences, because as far as I know, different peoples don't tend to differ in ways that are differential to respiratory viruses. But I could be wrong.

The virus has mutated numerous times. I don't think there is any evidence suggesting we have a more deadly form in Europe than in China. It also doesn't make sense when we compare Germany to Italy.

We have great healthcare in Europe, but treating people with severe symptoms from corona virus is pretty straight forward. It doesn't require medical skills not known by just about any doctor anywhere. What is required, though, is enough capacity (enough nurses and doctors), enough rooms for isolation, enough equipment to deal with isolation, and enough ventilators. China seems to have quickly managed to scale-up their capacity. It is almost beautiful how they managed to mobilize their systems when required. And a bit scary. I am not saying they did this better than us, but I would be careful to imply that Europe does this better than China, and I am afraid Italy is among the western European countries with the lowest capacity.

As for China and measures. I think China, although maybe late, imposed very strict measures and people in China are generally speaking good at following governmental guidelines. I think this is crucial to understanding the different outcomes. 

Then also comes differences in demographics. Italy has a much older population than China, and this is likely a very important attributing factor.

So to summarize, I think the differences between China and Italy can largely be attributed to China succeeding at social distancing quicker in the outbreak than Italy, and differences in demographics and possible ability to scale-up response.

Again, the argument that China must have lied about their numbers because they have less deaths than Italy, could just as well be used for any other country that has less deaths than Italy, like South Korea (about as many deaths per million people as China, and also able to quickly impose strict regulations and great healthcare response). And let's compare Germany to Italy: Germany has about 4 deaths/million while Italy has 151 deaths/million (!). Sure, some of this can be attributed to Italy getting it before Germany, but surely not all of it. Germany has different demographics to Italy (not as many old people) and much more healthcare capacity. I wouldn't be surprised that they also succeeded better at social distancing than Italy did at first.

Edited March 28, 2020 by SoulMonster

[AxlRoseCDII]

New idea for social distancing: wear a MAGA hat in public- no one will want to go near you.

[SoulMonster]

A bit old but interesting on how China managed to curb the epidemic: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/china-s-aggressive-measures-have-slowed-coronavirus-they-may-not-work-other-countries

And a newer article: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00741-x

And this: WHO urges Europe to learn from China, take ‘boldest’ action possible to tackle coronavirus

So I think it is clear that China went further than most European countries have.

Edited March 28, 2020 by SoulMonster

[SoulMonster]

Pasting this in its entirety since it was so explicit on answering why Italy and Spain are doing worse than China:

Italy’s coronavirus death toll is more than double that of China’s — this might be why

Key Points:

• A country’s speed of response and demographic are two of the reasons heath experts said death toll differs.
• Italy has reported more than twice as many deaths than China, where
• the virus first emerged in late 2019.
• As of Friday morning, there had been 8,215 deaths in Italy compared to 3,291 in China, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.
• Spain’s death toll has also risen sharply in recent days and it is currently at at least 4,365.

Demographics, social behavior and lower testing capacity are just some of the reasons why Italy and Spain have the highest number of deaths in the world from the coronavirus, health experts told CNBC. 

Italy has reported more than twice as many deaths than China, where the virus first emerged in late 2019. As of Friday morning, there had been 8,215 deaths in Italy compared to 3,291 in China, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.

At the same time, Spain’s death toll has risen sharply in recent days and it is currently at 4,365 — also significantly above China’s. The worrying figures have raised questions about what’s behind these European countries’ high fatality rate.

Two health experts told CNBC there are several reasons. 

Slow response

“There was a lot of spread before people realized (the virus was present),” Alexander Edwards, an expert in immunology from the University of Reading, told CNBC Thursday about the situation in Italy. 

He explained that in most European countries, people assumed the outbreak “was a problem elsewhere” and this initial attitude led to the fast spreading of the virus in places such as Italy and Spain. 

China’s Wuhan region, where the virus originated, has been shut off from the rest of the world since mid-January. The area will partially lift its lockdown in early April, given that there have been no new cases reported for a number days.

In hindsight, the extreme lockdown appears to have had a positive effect, however at the time, the decision to tell 11 million people to stay at home seemed too drastic to many, and without a guarantee of success.

Italy implemented its first lockdown measures in late February, in 11 municipalities in the northern part of the country. A nationwide lockdown was only put in place on March 9. “Italy was a bit behind,” Edwards told CNBC.

Testing capacity

The death rate is also linked to how many people are being tested for the virus, Michael Tildesley, an epidemiologist at Warwick University, told CNBC Thursday over the phone. Essentially, the more people who get tested, the better authorities can respond.

As a result in places where many people are being tested, and quickly, such as China, the number of deaths is not as high as those seen in Italy and Spain, where only citizens showing symptoms of the coronavirus are being tested.  

Edwards added that in China, people with the virus were identified quickly and isolated within the health system, rather than at home, which is what happened in Italy.

Population

There was a “double combination of risk factors” in Italy, according to Edwards. He explained that the first group of people to get hit by the virus in the country were the elderly.

OECD data shows that Italy has the second oldest population in the world, after Japan. Those aged above 60 are believed to be at a higher risk of having severe symptoms from the virus. 

“Every Sunday, (young Italians) go see their grandparents, they kiss them, they go to church or have meals together,” Edwards told CNBC, adding that this contact with the elderly helped spread the virus across Italy.

Even though Spain does not have one of the oldest populations in the world, the coronavirus also is hitting this age bracket hard. Data from the Spanish government has shown that the age groups with the highest number of cases are: 50-59; 70-79; and above 80.

In addition, Spain has a similar family culture to Italy, which according to the experts suggests that contact between the young and the elderly has contributed to a higher number of deaths.

“Part of it is also cultural,” Tildesley, from Warwick University, said, adding that China saw a higher level of compliance with the lockdown measures compared to Europe. 

Finally, there have been some suggestions that differences in the types of medicines used in Europe, compared with China, might have had an impact on the coronavirus death rate. However, Edwards from Reading University, said it was hard to say whether “Eastern versus Western” medicine made a difference in this case.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/27/why-coronavirus-deaths-are-higher-in-italy-spain-than-in-china.html

Edited March 28, 2020 by SoulMonster

[Angelica]

3 hours ago, Lio said:

If the death numbers in China are correct, does it mean white people are more likely to die from the disease? Or has the virus mutated into a far more deadly form?

What else could be an explanation? 

That open western societies are far less likely to take government directives as seriously as people are in countries like China? I wouldn’t trust the Chinese government about shit but I suspect that this is where the truth lies. 
 

It’s happening now in Australia, a large segment of the population  are ignoring the guidelines, largely on ‘principal’, becauee we’re not used to being told what to do and we don’t like it (however insanely stupid in this instance).

Edited March 28, 2020 by Angelica

[Dazey]

7 hours ago, downzy said:

If weight is a factor then Florida is fucked.

It’s probably going to be an extra 3 feet above sea level by the end of this if it wipes out all the fatties. 

Edited March 28, 2020 by Dazey

[Dazey]

4 hours ago, Lio said:

If the death numbers in China are correct, does it mean white people are more likely to die from the disease? Or has the virus mutated into a far more deadly form?

What else could be an explanation? This is Europe, we have great healthcare, and China didn't start taking measures earlier than us.

I do believe China has beaten this crisis for now, but I have a hard time believing such 'few' dead after having it months. Europe has lots more after weeks.

Even if we believe China wouldn't try to make it look less bad than it is, I think a lot of dead went under the radar. They even do here, and in Italy, where some villages have many more dead than in an average year, while only a small part officially labeled corona.

Personally I have no doubt far more than 3000 died of covid in China. 

To add to this: just read an article about it. Families are now allowed to pick up the ashes from people who died of corona. In one Wuhan facility there were apparently 5000 urns waiting. Wuhan has officially a little over 2500 corona dead. It also has eight of these facilities.

I'd say the discrepancy has far more to do with number of infected vs number tested. I suspect that Spain and Italy especially simply have far more infected cases than China. Take the UK and Germany, for example we know that here in the UK we're only testing people who are admitted to hospital and we have 759 deaths out of 14,543 cases diagnosed which is a death rate of 5.2%.

Now if you take the two countries that I would say have done the very best job with testing which are South Korea and Germany you get 9,478 cases with 144 deaths and 53,340 cases with 395 deaths respectively. That's death rates of 1.5% and 0.7% respectively. 

Spain and Italy are reporting death rates of 7.9% and 10.6% on 72,248 and 86,498 confirmed infections. Which to me just says that they have far more cases than they are able to confirm. If you assume that Germany are closer to the real numbers I'd estimate that Spain has closer to  975,000 cases and Italy are over 1.2 million by now. We're probably over 100,000 in the UK vs the 15,000 reported too.

Edited March 28, 2020 by Dazey

[Dazey]

3 hours ago, SoulMonster said:

Finally, there have been some suggestions that differences in the types of medicines used in Europe, compared with China, might have had an impact on the coronavirus death rate. However, Edwards from Reading University, said it was hard to say whether “Eastern versus Western” medicine made a difference in this case.

If there's any credence in this last bit I wouldn't want to be a fucking Rhino right now!  

Edited March 28, 2020 by Dazey

[Lio]

22 minutes ago, Dazey said:

I'd say the discrepancy has far more to do with number of infected vs number tested. I suspect that Spain and Italy especially simply have far more infected cases than China. Take the UK and Germany, for example we know that here in the UK we're only testing people who are admitted to hospital and we have 759 deaths out of 14,543 cases diagnosed which is a death rate of 5.2%.

Now if you take the two countries that I would say have done the very best job with testing which are South Korea and Germany you get 9,478 cases with 144 deaths and 53,340 cases with 395 deaths respectively. That's death rates of 1.5% and 0.7% respectively. 

Spain and Italy are reporting death rates of 7.9% and 10.6% on 72,248 and 86,498 confirmed infections. Which to me just says that they have far more cases than they are able to confirm. If you assume that Germany are closer to the real numbers I'd estimate that Spain has closer to  975,000 cases and Italy are over 1.2 million by now. We're probably over 100,000 in the UK vs the 15,000 reported too.

Yes, it's a bit useless to look at the number of infected people it seems. It appears to me it's more useful to look at people in ICU and dead. Our numbers have jumped up again, but that's because one lab hadn't communicated any data yet, so they got 500 in one time, and those weren't all from yesterday. Plus we're starting finally to gradually test more. So those numbers will keep on rising. I'll concentrate on ICU/dead.

I just doubt that China has only a little over 3000 dead.

I hope we can soon start testing people to see if they have gotten immunity for the virus, and thus cn start working again and come out of isolation. I hope those tests at least will be readily available.

Our youngest deceased person was a 30 year old nurse. She was completely healthy. Got a cold on Tuesday, suddenly deteriorated on Wednesday, rushed to hospital, died on Thursday

South Korea is a bit of an odd one, as beside reacting very fast, they go very far with the lockdown. The government looks at creditcard data and CCTV footage to ascertain where infected people have been and who they have been in contact with etc. Their contact tracing is incredible. That's something I don't think we'll be quick to do here. We value privacy a bit more than they do over there and they've gotten more used to this kind of crisis. Who knows, a few more of these pandemics and we'll be the same. Our society has changed beyond recognition in a matter of weeks.

Telecom companies here have determined 80% of us in Belgium have stayed within their town though, so that's a bit of Big Brother too.

[SoulMonster]

13 minutes ago, Lio said:

I just doubt that China has only a little over 3000 dead. 

Why? You seem to trust South Korean numbers which are comparable.