Covid-19 Thread

[Lio]

15 minutes ago, SoulMonster said:

Why? You seem to trust South Korean numbers which are comparable. 

Well, it started in China. I think people will likely have died from it before anyone ever knew about the virus. The first official case in China was January 10, while in December people like Dr. Li were already warning about this mysterious disease that killed people and made them really sick. It took China seven weeks before acting at all. It's not as if they were acting swiftly. No, they were locking up people who tried to warn for the virus, and they did try to hush it up those first weeks. So excuse me for not being completely trusting of numbers given to us by a heavily censored country that has been proven to at least try to hush this up the first months. Then when Li died, in February, they tried to hush up his death once more. China has a history of not being very open and honest, to say the very least. And the numbers are so far apart that I don't believe them.

South Korea came after China, and they have reacted far more swiftly. They have such advanced measures in place you can even see on your phone if you've been in contact with patients, and those were quickly quarantined.

They've also tested a lot more than here in Europe. People get tested and quarantined. We were told to just go to work and school un less you were sick. Since then, it's been proven that people are most infectious right before they get sick. So no doubt that is something that cost us a lot of lives in Europe. Even now it's only people that are hospitalized and medical staff that are tested.

So, South Korea's secret seems to be testing, and a lot of it, and very advanced contact tracing. That's why I'm more inclined to believe South Korean numbers.

[RussTCB]

5 hours ago, EricA said:

Ha, i feel ya, these are the "problems" of constantly overthinkers

This may sound a bit superficial, but we have to stop overthinking everything, we can only deal with it from day to day, this is not a situation where we, or even a single individual, can change anything.  I know the worry about jobs, kids, health and how things will go on in general is justified, but too many of worries about the overall situation only makes it even more exhausting.

Oh, I totally know and understand that we have to stop over thinking but that's precisely my problem. I feel like I'm such a worrier and over thinker, that I was barely holding it together BEFORE this whole shit show, let alone now lol

[downzy]

One aspect about China’s numbers that do not get much discussion is when the outbreak occurred. I believe there was a national holiday around that time that kept a lot of people home, which slowed transmission from Wuhan to other cities and regions. China instituted strict quarantine and social distancing measures as this holiday was concluding. In some sense they got lucky with timing.

One other thing I want to point out is I don’t believe a country’s age to be the dominant factor in a nation’s death rate.  Italy is the second oldest country on the planet if you examine the percent of its citizens over 65.

But Germany is fourth. The difference between the two in the number of citizens is 1.4 percent. 

Spain, which will likely have similar numbers of dead people, is significantly younger than both Italy and Germany. 

Age is likely a factor in explaining the number of deceased in each country but it’s my belief if one were to use regressive analysis it would reveal other factors to explain discrepancies between how many die between nations. 

[Lio]

1 minute ago, downzy said:

One aspect about China’s numbers that do not get much discussion is when the outbreak occurred. I believe there was a national holiday around that time that kept a lot of people home, which slowed transmission from Wuhan to other cities and regions. China instituted strict quarantine and social distancing measures as this holiday was concluding. In some sense they got lucky with timing.

 

Whereas Europe was extremy unlucky in timing. When the virus started spreading in Northern Italy, loads of people went skiing there, as we had a week off then. I remember thinking everyone who went to Italy or Austria should self quarantine for two weeks. But that was apparently too drastic just a few weeks back. As a result, we're all indoors now. What's done is done, but I hope next time we have an epidemic of this kind, government will act quicker and ask people who have been to the wide region that is affected, to stay at home for a few weeks.

[Blackstar]

I watched an interview with a Greek doctor who lives and works in a hospital in Bergamo, Italy. Needless to say that things are still tragic there, the doctors actually have to make a choice for who lives and who dies, and they give priority to younger patients... He's not a doctor specialised in the field (he's otolaryngologist) but everyone, from doctors in other fields to retired doctors to medical students have been recruited or volunteered to help. They've been also having Chinese doctors there for help and advise. The Chinese experts are saying that even now the measures in Italy are not as strict as they should, as people are still circulating to go to work etc. China had shut everything down.

[downzy]

12 minutes ago, Lio said:

Whereas Europe was extremy unlucky in timing. When the virus started spreading in Northern Italy, loads of people went skiing there, as we had a week off then. I remember thinking everyone who went to Italy or Austria should self quarantine for two weeks. But that was apparently too drastic just a few weeks back. As a result, we're all indoors now. What's done is done, but I hope next time we have an epidemic of this kind, government will act quicker and ask people who have been to the wide region that is affected, to stay at home for a few weeks.

Unfortunately there’s a lot of hindsight going. Most western developed nations escaped the ravages of the SARS, MERS, and H1N1 outbreaks and I guess the assumption back in January through early March was they were going to escape this one again. I’ll bet New Orleans regrets holding Mardi Gras late February.

I do agree and hope that governments learn from this experience and build up case testing and tracing capacity going forward to curtail the next one. We won’t necessarily have to bring everything to a halt next time if governments are better prepared and proactive like we saw in South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan.  My bet/hope is we’ll see governments build up emergency medical supplies and capacity so there is less need to flatten the curve. 

[downzy]

6 minutes ago, Blackstar said:

I watched an interview with a Greek doctor who lives and works in a hospital in Bergamo, Italy. Needless to say that things are still tragic there, the doctors actually have to make a choice for who lives and who dies, and they give priority to younger patients... He's not a doctor specialised in the field (he's otolaryngologist) but everyone, from doctors in other fields to retired doctors to medical students have been recruited or volunteered to help. They've been also having Chinese doctors there for help and advise. The Chinese experts are saying that even now the measures in Italy are not as strict as they should, as people are still circulating to go to work etc. China had shut everything down.

There are rational and non-conspiratorial explanations for why China was able to brunt the genesis of the outbreak whereas nations like Spain, Italy, and soon many others are having a much worse go of it. 

[SoulMonster]

2 hours ago, Lio said:

I just doubt that China has only a little over 3000 dead.

I find the explanations given in the articles I posted, that the comparable low number of deaths observed in China is the result of very strong mitigating actions over long time, a large amount of compliance in the population, more wide-spread testing, and a swift scale-up of medical capacity, compelling. I also find it unlikely that the Chinese government would be able to successfully implement such a large-scale cover-up, especially when WHO has been on the ground and supports the official Chinese numbers. Lastly, with other countries also being able to obtain comparable death rates as China (including Canada, Israel, South Korea, Ireland, Norway), although, of course, these countries got the disease later and still haven't been able to beat it down as China did. 

The most remarkable about how the disease has developed in China, in my opinion, isn't the total number of deaths, but the fact that they have been able to implement measures that ahs resulted in close to zero new infected. I find that number more unbelievable, and indicates to me how strict the regulations must be and how compliantly the population adheres to them.

If we still are to compare to Italy and Spain it is perhaps equally interesting to discuss why these countries have so much higher death rates per million than the rest of the world. Whereas the countries I mentioned above had < 5 deaths per million, Italy and Spain have 151 and 122, respectively. Again, the articles I linked discussed this. With Italy epidemiologists point to social distancing not working because of cultural differences, for Italy the old population comes in addition, and then there is very few hospital beds for isolation and ventilators (in Italy's case at least).

Looking at all of this, I really don't see a reason to summon a boogie man, I see no reason not to trust WHO when they say we can trust the Chinese data. 

[SoulMonster]

The UK is still on an unfortunate trajectory:

The number of newly infected continue to increase rapidly, and so do the number of new deaths:

The number of new deaths will of course not start to drop until the number of new cases has started to drop, and with a lag in-between. So shouldn't be too long before UK are registering more than 1000 new deaths per day.

 

 

 

[Dazey]

2 minutes ago, SoulMonster said:

The UK is still on an unfortunate trajectory:

The number of newly infected continue to increase rapidly, and so do the number of new deaths:

The number of new deaths will of course not start to drop until the number of new cases has started to drop, and with a lag in-between. So shouldn't be too long before UK are registering more than 1000 new deaths per day.

We seem to be tracking Italy pretty closely day by day as far as new deaths are concerned. Personally I'm taking the number of new cases per day with a pinch of salt as the more testing rates increase the higher that number is going to look proportionally to where it is now.

[Gibsonfender2323]

it’s not rocket science to say that if your testing more people in the USA that your gonna have more cases

 

Its just figuring out how serious each individual case is

[soon]

I wonder if and how this shutdown might have a positive impact on the environment?

Around the world there a far fewer vehicles on the road then before the crisis. There are less flights in the air. Many businesses are closed down or slowed down in operations (which in theory reduces associated pollution and waste, beyond travel).

At the same time, some industry is now working overtime to bring us the goods (paper products manufacturing, medical supply, sanitizer production [from breweries and distilleries!], etc). Also, some shipping firms are working over time. I suspect that there is still a net reduction in carbon spending, though.

If there is indeed a overall reduction in pollution, I wonder if this temporarily scaled back pollution/carbon foot print will have any significant impact on any related environmental metrics? Is there any noticeable impacts already? What would the impact be if this shut down last a long time, and with future shutdowns being a possibility? 

Metrics such as air quality in the cities all the way to the far, far less likely extreme of slowing/pausing the progression of climate change itself?

[SoulMonster]

1 minute ago, soon said:

I wonder if and how this shutdown might have a positive impact on the environment?

Around the world there a far fewer vehicles on the road then before the crisis. There are less flights in the air. Many businesses are closed down or slowed down in operations (which in theory reduces associated pollution and waste, beyond travel).

At the same time, some industry is now working overtime to bring us the goods (paper products manufacturing, medical supply, sanitizer production [from breweries and distilleries!], etc). Also, some shipping firms are working over time. I suspect that there is still a net reduction in carbon spending, though.

If there is indeed a overall reduction in pollution, I wonder if this temporarily scaled back pollution/carbon foot print will have any significant impact on any related environmental metrics? Is there any noticeable impacts already? What would the impact be if this shut down last a long time, and with future shutdowns being a possibility? 

Metrics such as air quality in the cities all the way to the far, far less likely extreme of slowing/pausing the progression of climate change itself?

Media has made a point of the canals of Venice (the Italian city, @Len Cnut, not the capital of Austria) now being clear. I would assume there would be less air pollution in metropolises, too.

That being said, this is just an insignificant blimp, all will back to normal as soon as restrictions are lifted. What we need is lasting change.

[soon]

3 minutes ago, SoulMonster said:

Media has made a point of the canals of Venice (the Italian city, @Len Cnut, not the capital of Austria) now being clear. I would assume there would be less air pollution in metropolises, too.

That being said, this is just an insignificant blimp, all will back to normal as soon as restrictions are lifted. What we need is lasting change.

For lasting change, I'm wondering if there will be any lessons taken away from this shut down. For both individual and business.

For instance perhaps businesses realize that their workers are just as productive working from home - and therefore start allowing that on a regular basis. This doesn't only reduce travel, it reduces heating and cooling needs at the place of business and it has the potential to reduce food packaging waste. Or that people learn that they can video conference for business, and dont need to fly for meetings all the time. And that conferences and symposia can be just as good when done as webinars?

And people might be weary of pleasure-travel, given how many people became stranded around the world when the virus/shut downs happened. Potentially this all adds up.

Just spit balling.

[Coma16]

14 minutes ago, soon said:

For lasting change, I'm wondering if there will be any lessons taken away from this shut down. For both individual and business.

For instance perhaps businesses realize that their workers are just as productive working from home - and therefore start allowing that on a regular basis. This doesn't only reduce travel, it reduces heating and cooling needs at the place of business and it has the potential to reduce food packaging waste. Or that people learn that they can video conference for business, and dont need to fly for meetings all the time. And that conferences and symposia can be just as good when done as webinars?

And people might be weary of pleasure-travel, given how many people became stranded around the world when the virus/shut downs happened. Potentially this all adds up.

Just spit balling.

This is assuming people will have jobs to do these virtual meetings. We're all in for tough times ahead unfortunately...

[action]

43 minutes ago, Oldest Goat said:

Groceries should be finally arriving today. I've literally only had a few handfuls of walnuts for like 4 days as I'm trying to adhere to the rules and not go out and break quarantine. Probably the most selfless thing I've ever done in my life.

[RussTCB]

15 minutes ago, soon said:

For lasting change, I'm wondering if there will be any lessons taken away from this shut down. For both individual and business.

For instance perhaps businesses realize that their workers are just as productive working from home - and therefore start allowing that on a regular basis. This doesn't only reduce travel, it reduces heating and cooling needs at the place of business and it has the potential to reduce food packaging waste. Or that people learn that they can video conference for business, and dont need to fly for meetings all the time. And that conferences and symposia can be just as good when done as webinars?

And people might be weary of pleasure-travel, given how many people became stranded around the world when the virus/shut downs happened. Potentially this all adds up.

Just spit balling.

I was thinking about the "work from home" aspect of it yesterday. I totally agree that this will have long term effects on that.

I'm based near Detroit so there are tons of manufacturing jobs around here where people will obviously have to return to in person once this whole thing is over. However, my friends in many other industries are having no problem whatsoever doing their jobs as well or better from their homes currently. 

Some of the had to adjust and create new routines, but they're all doing fine with it now. I hope a lot of companies see that and it actually ends up helping the economy in recovering. I'd like to see overhead costs come down for the reasons you listed. 

As for leisure travel, I don't see any change coming there. I think the very second this is over, people (at least in the US) are going to hop right on the next plane and fly all over the world. Believe it or not, I know people who've bought plane tickets in the past week for October and beyond because the prices are so low right now and they're hoping itll all be done by then. 

[Gibsonfender2323]

1 minute ago, RussTCB said:

I was thinking about the "work from home" aspect of it yesterday. I totally agree that this will have long term effects on that.

I'm based near Detroit so there are tons of manufacturing jobs around here where people will obviously have to return to in person once this whole thing is over. However, my friends in many other industries are having no problem whatsoever doing their jobs as well or better from their homes currently. 

Some of the had to adjust and create new routines, but they're all doing fine with it now. I hope a lot of companies see that and it actually ends up helping the economy in recovering. I'd like to see overhead costs come down for the reasons you listed. 

As for leisure travel, I don't see any change coming there. I think the very second this is over, people (at least in the US) are going to hop right on the next plane and fly all over the world. Believe it or not, I know people who've bought plane tickets in the past week for October and beyond because the prices are so low right now and they're hoping itll all be done by then. 

How are things in Detroit compared to NYC?

Here  in Connecticut  everything is shut down my UNIVERSITY is online for the rest of the semester 

[RussTCB]

14 minutes ago, Gibsonfender2323 said:

How are things in Detroit compared to NYC?

Here  in Connecticut  everything is shut down my UNIVERSITY is online for the rest of the semester 

Oh, everything in the entire state of Michigan is shut down except for "essential services". I don't have the most up to date numbers, but there are a ton of cases and a good amount of deaths. 

I believe the current time line is for everything to be shut down until at least mid April. I think it'll be longer than that, but we'll see. 

[soon]

30 minutes ago, RussTCB said:

I was thinking about the "work from home" aspect of it yesterday. I totally agree that this will have long term effects on that.

I'm based near Detroit so there are tons of manufacturing jobs around here where people will obviously have to return to in person once this whole thing is over. However, my friends in many other industries are having no problem whatsoever doing their jobs as well or better from their homes currently. 

Some of the had to adjust and create new routines, but they're all doing fine with it now. I hope a lot of companies see that and it actually ends up helping the economy in recovering. I'd like to see overhead costs come down for the reasons you listed. 

As for leisure travel, I don't see any change coming there. I think the very second this is over, people (at least in the US) are going to hop right on the next plane and fly all over the world. Believe it or not, I know people who've bought plane tickets in the past week for October and beyond because the prices are so low right now and they're hoping itll all be done by then. 

Yeah, I mean its hard to imagine that the bosses and investors would not want to continue on with the savings they see from reduced business air travel and having staff work from home. Especially after taking such major hits to the bottom line. Like you say to help the economy recover.

About leisure travel... . A goal I have is to never be surprised by people's decisions or the the human condition. But still, sometimes Im surprised. I wish them all the best. 

[Coma16]

I haven't seen any mention on the news about riots or looting in America. Is this really the case or is it being surprised?

[RussTCB]

14 minutes ago, Coma16 said:

I haven't seen any mention on the news about riots or looting in America. Is this really the case or is it being surprised?

I haven't heard anything about any roots or looting anywhere in the US. 

[Dazey]

17 year old kid dies from coronavirus in California after being denied treatment because he had no insurance.  

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/coronavirus-teenager-death-california-health-insurance-care-emergency-room-covid-19-a9429946.html

[Coma16]

4 minutes ago, RussTCB said:

I haven't heard anything about any roots or looting anywhere in the US. 

That's good, it would be a real shame if there was... this morning on the local news I read about a bank robbery here. Bunch of low-lives....

[RussTCB]

1 minute ago, Coma16 said:

That's good, it would be a real shame if there was... this morning on the local news I read about a bank robbery here. Bunch of low-lives....

I mean, crime is still happening but I haven't heard one word about any sort of riots or looting or anything like that.